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2007 Grammy Awards: Winner Predictions

Is there a general consensus in the industry that Mary J. Blige is owed something?



2007 Grammy Awards: Winner Predictions

“Be Without You,” Mary J. Blige
“You’re Beautiful,” James Blunt
“Not Ready To Make Nice,” Dixie Chicks
“Crazy,” Gnarls Barkley (Will Win)
“Put Your Records On,” Corinne Bailey Rae

Sal Cinquemani: Is there a general consensus in the industry that Mary J. Blige is owed something?
Jonathan Keefe: As though performing on the American Idol finale with that kid People profiled for getting dental veneers (Elliott, lest any of the “Yaminions” send me hate-mail) isn’t its own reward.
Eric Henderson: It plays out like so many other music stories: she starts getting props just for hanging around long enough for her music to be vapid and middlebrow.
Sal: “Crazy” is getting lots of AC attention, which means it’s reached critical mass-acceptance in the heartland. It’s crossed over in a big way.
Eric: Yeah, with the Closet Freak himself singing falsetto and Danger Mouse producing, “Crazy” is simultaneously as cutting edge and as Downy soft as you want it to be. Demographically speaking, it’s practically schizo in its appeal. Dixie Chicks are the only potential spoilers, if momentum snowballs their way.
Jonathan: “Crazy” does what “Hey Ya!,” “Crazy In Love,” and “Work It” before it couldn’t, becoming the first crossover pop single that owes a substantial debt to hip-hop to win Record of the Year. Had anything Timbaland produced been nominated, there would’ve been another one of the vote-splits that have allowed “Clocks,” “Boulevard Of Broken Dreams,” and that comatose Ray Charles/Norah Jones duet to win the last three years. This time, it’s the limp AC tracks—which fully covers both Blige and Dixie Chicks, conveniently enough—that split the votes, to the benefit of what happens to be the best “record” of the lot.
Eric: Did they nominate this instantly forgettable Corinne Bailey Rae tune because it validates the category’s title, when it would make more sense today to switch it to “Single of the Year” or “Track of the Year”?

(Will Win)Taking The Long Way, Dixie Chicks (Will Win)
St. Elsewhere, Gnarls Barkley
Continuum, John Mayer
Stadium Arcadium, Red Hot Chili Peppers
FutureSex/LoveSounds, Justin Timberlake

Sal: Justin’s album is the biggest seller here but a sexybacklash—and the fact that the academy hasn’t awarded a pop album in this category in a decade—could spoil things for him. He himself said the Chili Peppers will win but I don’t see that happening. Chicks with Dix, on the other hand, showed a different (that is, non-narcotic) kind of perseverance and survival, and while they haven’t been around as long as Anthony Kiedis’s West Coast band, Texas might be ripe for a comeback after everything Bush has done for its image. Now that America has come to its senses perhaps they should re-title this category We’re Sorry, You Were Right All Along And Now Here’s A Grammy.
Eric: Mary J. Blige is still scowling, somewhere. The only one I can see snatching it away from the Chicks is John Mayer, who seems to win almost every time he gets nominated. “Waiting On The World To Change” might pick up a few anti-Bush votes for those who prefer passive-aggressive political statements.
Jonathan: The easy answer is that the two urban-pop albums by Robin Gibb and Gnarls Barkley (both of which would be deserving winners, incidentally) cancel each other out, as do the dull VH1 rock albums by Red Hot Chili Peppers and Mayer, thereby keeping any one album from acting as a spoiler to The Dixie Chicks’ frontrunner status. The more accurate answer is that a vote for The Dixie Chicks is a vote for NARAS themselves, since The Dixie Chicks haven’t shut up (and sung) in the last year about wanting anything other than to be validated by openly left-leaning music industry veterans who only like country music when it doesn’t sound a damn thing like country music at all because they’re better people than those who do like country music. Begging this exact demographic for their approval didn’t work for Kanye West last year, but his album wasn’t as airquotes important as Taking the Long Way and the election results hadn’t yet confirmed that it’s safe to give major awards to liberals again.

“Be Without You,” Mary J. Blige
“Jesus, Take The Wheel,” Carrie Underwood
“Not Ready To Make Nice,” Dixie Chicks
“Put Your Records On,” Corinne Bailey Rae
“you’re Beautiful,” James Blunt (Will Win)

Sal: You’ve got red-state country (Carrie Underwood’s “Jesus, Take The Wheel”) vs. blue-state country (Dixie Chicks’ “Not Ready To Make Nice”). It’s like the ‘04 election all over again.
Eric: Unless Dixie Chicks win, in which case it’s the ‘06 election all over again.
Sal: People seem to love Mary’s single, but a win for that song would be a real slap in the face to Mariah and “We Belong Together,” without which “Be Without You” wouldn’t be.
Jonathan: True, but does NARAS really feel so bad about slapping Mariah around? But, like Mariah last year, I think Blige will be shut out of the General Field awards.
Eric: The only one I can rule out is Carrie Underwood’s, since she had no hand in writing the song. Otherwise, “you’re Beautiful” seems like it has the “tomorrow’s lounge lizard standards” vibe that seems to win this category so often.
Jonathan: It’s impossible to imagine any jazz singers trying to croon “Not Ready to Make Nice” 10 years from now. Add that to the fact that this category hasn’t gone to a “country” song since 1982 and has gone to a woman just twice in the last 10 years (Shawn Colvin in 1997 and Alicia Keys in 2001, as Norah Jones didn’t write “Don’t Know Why”), and Blunt has to be considered the slight favorite.

James Blunt
Chris Brown
Imogen Heap
Corinne Bailey Rae
Carrie Underwood (Will Win)

Sal: I’m a little baffled by Imogen Heap’s inclusion here. She’s been around since the late ‘90s, released an album with her band Frou Frou in 2002, and her latest solo record came out during last year’s Grammy eligibility period. Still, she probably deserves to win in this lot.
Eric: Not only that, but Carrie Underwood won American Idol the season before last. But it’s all part and parcel of the category that, in awards show terms, has about as much relevance as winning Miss Golden Globe.
Jonathan: Underwood is the most likely of the five to maintain a lengthy career, but that doesn’t mean she’s given any real clues to this point as to the type of “artist” she is beyond “one who can sell 5 million albums that she had a minimal amount of creative input in crafting.” Even though part of me thinks that they might as well just give the Grammy to Simon Cowell for recognizing exactly how marketable Underwood is, I still think she’ll take this one. Imogen Heap can take consolation in being able to do this.
Sal: Let’s see how a Grammy nomination and inevitable mainstream attention will ruin that kind of talent.

“Ain’t No Other Man,” Christina Aguilera (Will Win)
“Unwritten,” Natasha Bedingfield
“You Can Close Your Eyes,” Sheryl Crow
“Stupid Girls,” Pink
“Black Horse And The Cherry Tree,” KT Tunstall

Eric: You can close your eyes and still know that Sheryl Crow will be nominated in this category from now until she decides to have a Nelly Furtado makeover.
Jonathan: She’s definitely replaced Bonnie Raitt as the perennial fifth nominee here, getting in for something that was heard by the exact number of people needed to get her on the shortlist and leaving the rest of us to wonder how that manages to be a bigger number than the total of people who voted for Madonna.
Sal: For the same reason Cee-Lo and Dangermouse will go home with enough Grammy gold for both their mantles, dark horse KT Tunstall could secure a surprise win. Tunstall’s music has been a fixture on AC radio (and half a dozen TV shows) since the ailing Virgin Records started pushing the Scottish singer-songwriter down our throats a year ago. She’s nothing special and she’s got no other nominations (not even a Best New Artist nod, despite being one of the nominee announcers), but her only real competition, Christina Aguilera, hasn’t exactly blown up the charts.
Jonathan: I’d go with “Black Horse & The Cherry Tree” here if not for the fact that Corinne Bailey Rae took all three of the General Field nominations that I thought Tunstall would receive. I wouldn’t be surprised were she to win (and she’d be my close-second choice, behind Pink), but I think Aguilera is the safer bet, since she’s the only one who also landed a nomination for Best Pop Album. Listening to “Ain’t No Other Man,” though, you can actually hear her vocal cords turning into scar tissue.
Sal: “Ain’t No Other Man” is the obvious choice for those who interpret the vocal performance categories literally (i.e. the loudest vocals), but Pink delivered a scathing, sneer of a performance with “Stupid Girls.” She should win solely for “My only concern: Will it fuck up my hair?!”
Eric: I sort of dig the utter transparency of Natasha Bedingfield’s nomination for one of the most generically pop songs in years. It harkens back to the days of Natalie Imbruglia and…well, Christina Aguilera’s first few nominations. The song appropriately stresses a book with nothing yet written in it. The performance is so utterly invisible I doubt even Pink would bother taking aim. It’s pop that takes no chances, makes no gains, and dissolves on contact. I don’t know that enough people appreciate how hard it is to hate a single that barely exists.
Sal: Hey, easy there, Eric. I know the fine lady who wrote that song. She had one of the most unrealized pop careers in the early ‘90s, which I guess is better than being a one-hit wonder. Right, Natasha?

“you’re Beautiful,” James Blunt (Will Win)
“Save Room,” John Legend
“Waiting On The World To Change,” John Mayer
“Jenny Wren,” Paul McCartney
“Bad Day,” Daniel Powter

Sal: This category could go in several directions: James Blunt had Grammy stamped on his ass even before “you’re Beautiful” started getting play in the U.S.; John Mayer is a perennial favorite (he’s been nominated and won twice in this category); Sir Paul McCartney’s been nominated four times here but has never won; and, though it makes our stomachs turn (and hopefully the academy’s as well), “Bad Day” is the biggest hit of the bunch.
Eric: A vote for “Bad Day” (i.e. “Love Theme from United 93”) is essentially a vote for American Idol. And, Kelly Clarkson aside, Grammy has shown admirable resistance to the juggernaut.
Jonathan: This one’s tough to call—there’s a solid case for each of the nominees, with the possible exception of Legend, actually winning. The category often favors a veteran artist when there’s more than one radio hit in the running, and, unlike some of the recent wins by Stevie Wonder, James Taylor, and Sting, McCartney’s “Jenny Wren” would make a fine choice. Despite the fact that Mayer has won this category on his last two nominations, it just seems like Blunt is supposed to win. But that was also our rationale in picking Gwen Stefani last year.

“My Humps,” The Black Eyed Peas
“I Will Follow You Into The Dark,” Death Cab for Cutie
“Over My Head (Cable Car),” The Fray (Will Win)
“Is It Any Wonder?,” Keane
“Stickwitu,” The Pussycat Dolls

Eric: The Pussycat Dolls were nominated for the only song in which they don’t sound like wind-up toys, which should work against them. When people want to jack off to pop, they usually prefer the robotic to the clingy.
Jonathan: I call bullshit on the Pussycat Dolls’ nomination on the grounds that only one member of the “Duo or Group” was anywhere near the studio when the song was recorded.
Eric: Didn’t “My Humps” get a nomination last year?
Sal: “My Humps” gets a nomination every year. Best Novelty Butt Song.
Eric: I love that category. Diana Krall is a shoo-in.
Jonathan: I found Black-Eyed Peas’ “Let’s Get Retarded” truly offensive until “My Humps” came along to recast it as Will-dot-I-dot-Am and Stacy’s personal anthem of self-empowerment. Mercifully, “My Humps” is too divisive to win this. Keane would be the best choice, but it’ll go to The Fray. And I’d love to know how NARAS decided that one of their two soundalike singles is “Pop” and one is “Rock.”

Back to Basics, Christina Aguilera
Back to Bedlam, James Blunt
The River In Reverse, Elvis Costello & Allen Toussaint
Continuum, John Mayer
FutureSex/LoveSounds, Justin Timberlake (Will Win)

Eric: The Pop Album category has the consistency of Cream of Wheat. Sometimes they go with lumpy, stalwart mandarins of the music industry (i.e. the James Taylor route), and other times they opt for the smoothest, ooziest choice in the line-up.
Jonathan: No artist has won this category more than once, which could hurt Timberlake if the Academy actually looks up their own voting trends online. Breakaway proved that an album can win here over two Album Of The Year nominees, but neither Blunt nor Aguilera have the combo of sales figures and general feelings of goodwill that gave Clarkson the win last year, so it’s hard to see either of them pulling an upset. Since the Costello/Toussaint album really isn’t all that great, and Mayer has another, more interesting album nominated for Best Rock Album, it looks like Grammy will, quite rightly, give it up to Omeletteville.

“Suffer Well,” Depeche Mode
“Ooh La La,” Goldfrapp
“Get Together,” Madonna
“I’m With Stupid,” Pet Shop Boys
“SexyBack,” Justin Timberlake & Timbaland (Will Win)

Sal: Warner Bros. submitted Madonna’s “Hung Up” for Female Pop Vocal Performance instead of Best Dance Recording, the same course of action that landed Kylie Minogue’s “Come Into My World” a nomination—and a win—here instead of the more popular “Can’t Get You Out Of My Head.” It wasn’t such a long shot considering many thought “Hung Up” was a viable Record Of The Year contender, but “Get Together” is unlikely to beat “SexyBack,” the obligatory ass song of the year.
Eric: I agree, “SexyBack” is the assiest song of the bunch. By that, I mean it’s the best. Considering Goldfrapp’s catchy appropriation of Blondie’s “Call Me” got nominated, I’m a little disappointed Rihanna’s full-on theft (glamorous, Bonnie and Clyde-style theft) of “Tainted Love” didn’t manage to knock off either Depeche Mode or Pet Shop Boys.
Jonathan: The point in Hard Candy when I realized it was complete and utter bullshit is when Kitty Pryde snarls, “I fucking hate Goldfrapp,” at an incapacitated Patrick Wilson, completely missing the point of how well Goldfrapp do their denial-of-genuine-emotion thing. It’s a waste of energy to hate ice, especially if you need it to numb someone’s balls later.

Supernature, Goldfrapp
Confessions On A Dance Floor, Madonna (Will Win)
A Lively Mind, Oakenfold
Fundamental, Pet Shop Boys
The Garden, Zero 7

Sal: I can’t believe Oakenfold got a dance album nod. It’s a fucking rock album…and a bad one. I couldn’t even bring myself to review it.
Jonathan: Tai sings! Because someone, this one time, told her she sounds like Pink! She does that same soul-killing giggle in the song that she does in all of her soul-killing rom-coms!
Eric: Is Zero 7 dance? I thought they were indie-pop or something.
Sal: The name of category is Electronic/Dance.
Eric: That distinction throws me, especially when paired with Best Dance Recording, which is explicitly “dance.”
Sal: A.K.A. Novelty Butt Song. Madonna should be redeemed here. Warner Bros. wisely submitted Confessions in this category instead of the more competitive Pop Vocal Album.
Jonathan: Since the dance categories’ short history shows that NARAS has absolutely no idea what the hell they’re voting for, the simple fact that Madonna’s album has the word “dance” right there in the title should be enough to win. Which, since The Knife and Vitalic weren’t on the radar, I’m fine with, though I wouldn’t have voted for “Get Together” in the previous category.
Eric: I actually hope Zero 7 wins here. Not necessarily because it’s my favorite album of this group (though it is), but because as long as they insist on “legitimizing” this category by not limiting themselves to dance music alone, I want them to select winners that best reflect their distaste for the genre. There’s not a four-to-the-floor moment in The Garden, and I think they want it that way.

“Chasing Cars,” Snow Patrol (Will Win)
“Dani California,” Red Hot Chili Peppers
“Lookin’ For A Leader,” Neil Young
“Someday Baby,” Bob Dylan
“When You Were Young,” The Killers

Sal: I think Tom Petty should win a Grammy for “Dani California.”
Eric: I’m hoping Brian Setzer gets his due for “Someday Baby.”
Sal: But you know I’d stunt for The Killers, if only for that one lyric about Jesus talking like a gentleman. Anything but Neil Young’s “Lookin’ For A Leader,” thanks.
Jonathan: I’ve already stated my take on the Dylan v. Flowers throwdown, but I don’t think either will win here—“Chasing Cars” has been all over the radio for the duration of the voting period.

Whatever People Say I Am, That’s What I’m Not, Arctic Monkeys
At War With The Mystics, The Flaming Lips
St. Elsewhere, Gnarls Barkley (Will Win)
Show Your Bones, Yeah Yeah Yeahs
The Eraser, Thom Yorke

Sal: The Arctic Monkeys’ album is my favorite of the bunch. Yeah Yeah Yeahs’ album disappointed me, not because it was deemed a shot at the mainstream, but because it did so half-assed.
Eric: The Arctic Monkeys look the best. Still, I’m sort of embarrassed to admit that it took a not-particularly-beloved album that devoted over seven minutes of running time to what the band called “The Sound Of Failure” for me to start really digging The Flaming Lips. So, naturally, it’s by far the lowest ranking album over at the Jackin’ Pop poll. Maybe if TV On the Radio had managed to sneak in here, I could’ve gone with the critical mass.
Jonathan: In the past few years, I would’ve gladly replaced the general Album Of The Year line-up with the one NARAS came up with for this category. Not so, this year. Yorke’s album grew on me over the course of the year, while YYY’s cooled a bit. The Flaming Lips’ album isn’t as bad as the reviews made it out to be, but it’s a definite step down from their previous two outings. And I like both of Franz Ferdinand’s albums, which lost in this category, a whole lot better than the Arctic Monkeys’ good but wildly overhyped debut. Which leaves Gnarls Barkley. I don’t really agree with the genre placement, but it’s the best album of the lot, and it’s rare for an Album Of The Year nominee to lose here.

“Ring The Alarm,” Beyoncé
“Be Without You,” Mary J. Blige (Will Win)
“Don’t Forget About Us,” Mariah Carey
“Day Dreaming,” Natalie Cole
“I Am Not My Hair,” India.Arie

Eric: I know the video shouldn’t have any pull in deciding the winner here, but if Beyoncé had brought anything resembling the histrionics she demonstrated in “Ring The Alarm” to Dreamgirls—aside from the fact that it would drastically alter her character—people would be going “Jennifer who?” Mary J. Blige may write in about 24 point on her laptop, but Beyoncé‘s the one who delivers in all caps. Thankfully, she’s not doing it in a love ballad for a change.
Sal:It’s the best vocal performance here, without a doubt. And I’m basing that solely on the bridge. And the chinchilla coats. I’m leaving the disembodied “I Am Not My Hair” jokes to you, Eric.
Eric: India.Arie is not her hair. She’s not the average girl from your video. She spends an awful lot of time not being things.
Jonathan: I’m usually in the booster club at The Mary J. Blige School Of Losing One’s Shit In Lieu Of Proper Singing, but, yeah, “Ring The Alarm” one-ups her on that on front.
Sal: Who’s going to win, Mary’s copy of “We Belong Together” or Mariah’s?
Jonathan: Mary will still win because she’s overdue, but I do wonder if we’re underestimating Natalie Cole.

“Heaven,” John Legend
“So Sick,” Ne-Yo
“Black Sweat,” Prince
“I Call It Love,” Lionel Richie
“Got You Home,” Luther Vandross (Will Win)

Sal: Singing from the grave never lost anyone a Grammy, and the academy loves them some Luther, but I was pretty impressed with Prince’s performance on “Black Sweat.” It’s the first Prince song I’ve liked in years and he is, after all, a living legend. Unlike John Legend, who, despite his name and song title, is neither a legend nor dead yet. Oh, whatever, they should just give it to Lionel Richie because I’m sure Nicole will be dead soon and that counts, right? Besides, “I Call It Love” and Ne-Yo’s “So Sick” are basically the same song anyway. A win for one is a score for both.
Jonathan: I do hope Prince gets to accept one of Justin Timberlake’s awards, since I doubt he’s going to win any of his own.
Eric: I hope Prince kicks Justin’s ass for his short joke at the Golden Globes…I mean, provided he can reach Justin’s ass.

“Smack That,” Akon Featuring Eminem
“Deja vu,” Beyoncé Featuring Jay-Z
“Shake That,” Eminem Featuring Nate Dogg
“Unpredictable,” Jamie Foxx Featuring Ludacris
“My Love,” Justin Timberlake Featuring T.I. (Will Win)

Sal: I know there’s a “Shake That”/“Smack That”/“Deja Vu” joke in my head somewhere but it’s being smothered to death by the perpetual inanity of this category.
Eric: I don’t know about you two, but this is my favorite category. I get my conversation-ending epigrams from it every year. If only they had managed to make room for “Jiggle Dat,” “Sniff It,” “Twerk Out,” and “Fuck Me,” I’d be set until 2010.
Jonathan: I will never in my life come up with anything better than “Twerk Out.”

Lupe Fiasco’s Food & Liquor, Lupe Fiasco
Release Therapy, Ludacris (Will Win)
In My Mind, Pharrell
Game Theory, The Roots
King, T.I.

Jonathan: I know it wasn’t a good year for popular rap, but Pharrell? Honestly?
Sal: Pharrell’s album was practically unlistenable—save for that track featuring Gwen, and only because the fact that she agreed to such a degrading, monotonous cameo was downright mesmerizing.
Jonathan: This one’s tough because three big name acts (Eminem, OutKast, and Kanye West) have won the last seven years with albums worthy of the praise. This year, Luda’s the biggest name by a pretty substantial margin, but (and this could be my residual disgust for anything even tangentially connected to Crash rearing its head) his album isn’t even close to the quality of Game Theory or Lupe Fiasco’s Food & Liquor, which probably would’ve made my year-end Top 10 had I not picked it up just a few days before we published our lists. Lupe Fiasco’s nominations were a pleasant surprise, so it’s possible that he could win, but T.I.‘s King has the best balance of commercial impact and critical support that’s required to win this category.
Sal: I love how it was Jonathan, and not Eric, who managed to work a jab at Crash into our Grammy predictions.
Jonathan: I figured Eric had sent his invisibility cloak to the dry-cleaners.
Eric: I’m saving up for this year’s Oscar predictions. That said, Ludacris will win this one in a country-fried chicken-n-beer.

“Every Mile A Memory,” Dierks Bentley
“I Don’t Feel Like Loving You Today,” Gretchen Wilson
“Jesus, Take The Wheel,” Carrie Underwood (Will Win)
“Like Red on a Rose,” Alan Jackson
“What Hurts The Most,” Rascal Flatts

Eric: Country music, I don’t feel like loving you today. Someone else take the wheel.
Jonathan: That “Not Ready To Make Nice” was left out here has some pundits setting up camp on the grassy knoll, worried that bloc voting in Nashville will keep the Dixie Chicks from winning in the Country field. This ignores both that the country music industry flat-out doesn’t care what the Grammys do since they already have two awards shows to honor the Nashville boys club, and that the Grammys are not a figure skating competition. “I Don’t Feel Like Loving You Today” is easily the best-written song of the nominees, but it’s hard to tell, thanks to Wilson, whose performance of the ballad is so affected that she might as well be singing in a British accent. Matraca Berg has been one of the best singer-songwriters in Nashville for some two decades now, and a win here would be some long-overdue recognition. Which means, obviously, that she has the longest of the long-shots to win against Song of the Year nominee “Jesus, Take The Wheel,” which is one deus ex machina away from being a song about criminal charges for child endangerment and vehicular manslaughter.

Taking The Long Way, Dixie Chicks (Will Win)
Like Red on a Rose, Alan Jackson
The Road To Here, Little Big Town
You Don’t Know Me: The Songs Of Cindy Walker, Willie Nelson
Your Man, Josh Turner

Jonathan: One super important thing I ignored in making my prediction for this category last year is that, when it comes to the Grammys, you never bet against Alison Krauss. That she produced Jackson’s well-reviewed Like Red on a Rose could position that album as the only possible spoiler in this category (she produced Nickel Creek’s Grammy-winning This Side, so there’s precedent). Thing is, Jackson’s album of stylish adult pop has alienated his fanbase almost as much as the Dixie Chicks have theirs. He’d still be a deserving winner—as would Willie Nelson, nominated for one of the few things he’s done in the last five years that doesn’t actively undermine his status as a genre legend. Turner could upset Vince Gill in the Male Vocal Performance category, but there’s not much to his album beyond its two hit singles. Little Big Town’s singles are pretty great, but the album nomination is a stretch. Not that any of this matters. The Dixie Chicks won this award months before their album was even released.



2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions

How has Oscar royally screwed things up this year? Let us count the ways.



Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Photo: Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

How has Oscar royally screwed things up this year? Let us count the ways. The hastily introduced and unceremoniously tabled (for now) “best popular film” Oscar. The impending commercial-break ghettoization of such categories as best cinematography and best film editing, but most certainly not best song and best animated feature. The abortive attempts to unveil Kevin Hart as the host not once, but twice, stymied by the online backlash over years-old anti-gay Twitter jokes and leading AMPAS to opt for George Glass as this year’s master of ceremonies. The strong-arming of its own membership to deter rank-and-file superstars from attending competing precursor award shows. If these end up being the last Oscars ever, and it’s starting to feel as though it should be, what a way to go out, right? Like the floating island of plastic in the Pacific, the cultural and political detritus of Oscar season has spread far beyond any previous rational estimates and will almost certainly outlive our functional presence on this planet. And really, when you think about it, what’s worse: The extinction of mankind or Bohemian Rhapsody winning the best picture Oscar? In that spirit, we press on.



There will be plenty of time, too much time, to go deep on the many ways Green Book reveals the flawed soul of your average, aged white liberal in America circa 2019. For now, let’s just admit that it’s as sure a nominee as The Favourite, Roma, and A Star Is Born. (There’s snackable irony in the fact that a movie called The Front Runner became very much not an Oscar front runner in a year that doesn’t appear to have a solid front runner.) And even though few seem to be predicting it for an actual win here, Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman has an almost spotless precursor track record, showing up almost across the board among the guilds. Predicting this category would’ve been easy enough when Oscar limited it to five films, but it’s strangely almost as easy this year to see where the line will cut off between five and 10. Adam McKay’s Vice may be without shame, but you don’t have to strain hard to see how people could mistake it for the film of the moment. Bohemian Rhapsody is certainly lacking in merit, but, much like our comrade in chief, Oscar has never been more desperate for people to like and respect him, and a hit is a hit. Except when it’s a Marvel movie, which is why Black Panther stands precariously on the category’s line of cutoff, despite the rabid enthusiasm from certain corners that will likely be enough to push it through.

Will Be Nominated: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, and Vice

Closest Runners-Up: If Beale Street Could Talk and A Quiet Place

Should Be Nominated: BlacKkKlansman, Burning, First Reformed, Let the Sunshine In, and Zama

Best Director

Yorgos Lanthimos

Everyone can agree that Bohemian Rhapsody will be one of the best picture contenders that doesn’t get a corresponding best director nomination, but virtually all the other nominees we’re predicting have a shot. Including Peter-flashing Farrelly, whose predictably unsubtle work on Green Book (or, Don and Dumber) netted him a widely derided DGA nomination. The outrage over Farrelly’s presence there took some of the heat off Vice’s Adam McKay, but if any DGA contender is going to swap out in favor of Yorgos Lanthimos (for BAFTA favorite The Favourite), it seems likely to be McKay. As Mark Harris has pointed out, Green Book is cruising through this awards season in a lane of its own, a persistently well-liked, well-meaning, unchallenging throwback whose defiant fans are clearly in a fighting mood.

Will Be Nominated: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Alfonso Cuarón (Roma), Peter Farrelly (Green Book), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), and Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

Closest Runners-Up: Ryan Coogler (Black Panther), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk), and Adam McKay (Vice)

Should Be Nominated: Lee Chang-dong (Burning), Claire Denis (Let the Sunshine In), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Lucrecia Martel (Zama), and Paul Schrader (First Reformed)

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio

Had Fox Searchlight reversed their category-fraud strategizing and flipped The Favourite’s Olivia Coleman into supporting and Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone into lead, the five best actress slots would arguably have been locked down weeks, if not months, ago, unless Fox’s bet-hedging intuits some form of industry resistance to double female-led propositions. As it stands, there are four locks that hardly need mention and a slew of candidates on basically equal footing. Hereditary’s Toni Collette has become shrieking awards show junkies’ cause célèbre this year, though she actually has the critic awards haul to back them up, having won more of the regional prizes than anyone else. The same demographic backing Collette gave up hope long ago on Viola Davis being able to survive the Widows collapse, and yet there by the grace of BAFTA does she live on to fight another round. Elsie Fisher’s palpable awkwardness in Eighth Grade and winning awkwardness navigating the Hollywood circuit have earned her an almost protective backing. But we’re going out on a limb and calling it for the rapturously received Roma’s Yalitza Aparicio. Voters could, like us, find it not a particularly great performance and still parlay their good will for her into a nomination that’s there for the taking.

Will Be Nominated: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), and Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Closest Runners-Up: Toni Collette (Hereditary), Viola Davis (Widows), and Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)

Should Be Nominated: Juliette Binoche (Let the Sunshine In), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Regina Hall (Support the Girls), and Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)


John David Washington

Take Toni Collette’s trophies thus far in the competition and double them. And then add a few more. That’s the magnitude of endorsements backing First Reformed’s Ethan Hawke. And his trajectory has the clear markings of an almost overqualified performance that, like Naomi Watts’s in Mulholland Drive, cinephiles decades from now will wonder how Oscar snubbed. If Pastor Ernst Toller and Sasha Stone are right and God is indeed watching us all and cares what the Academy Awards do, Hawke’s nomination will come at the expense of John David Washington, whose strength in the precursors thus far (SAG and Globe-nominated) is maybe the most notable bellwether of BlacKkKlansman’s overall strength. Because, as with the best actress category, the other four slots are basically preordained. Unlike with best actress, the bench of also-rans appears to be one solitary soul. A fitting place for Paul Schrader’s man against the world.

Will Be Nominated: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), and John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

Closest Runners-Up: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)

Should Be Nominated: Yoo Ah-in (Burning), Ben Foster (Leave No Trace), Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Meinhard Neumann (Western), and John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt

Every Oscar prognosticator worth their bragging rights has spent the last couple weeks conspicuously rubbing their hands together about Regina King’s chances. The all-or-nothing volley that’s seen her sweep the critics’ awards and win the Golden Globe, and at the same time not even get nominations from within the industry—she was left off the ballot by both SAG and the BAFTAs—are narrative disruptions among a class that lives for narratives and dies of incorrect predictions. But despite the kvetching, King is as safe as anyone for a nomination in this category. It doesn’t hurt that, outside the pair of lead actresses from The Favourite, almost everyone else in the running this year feels like a 7th- or 8th-place also-ran. Except maybe Widows’s Elizabeth Debicki, whose fervent fans probably number just enough to land her…in 7th or 8th place. Vice’s Amy Adams is set to reach the Glenn Close club with her sixth Oscar nomination, and if she’d only managed to sustain the same loopy energy she brings to Lynne Cheney’s campaign-trail promise to keep her bra on, she’d deserve it. Which leaves a slot for supportive housewives Claire Foy, Nicole Kidman, and Emily Blunt. Even before the collapse of Mary Poppins Returns, we preferred Blunt’s chances in A Quiet Place.

Will Be Nominated: Amy Adams (Vice), Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), and Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Closest Runners-Up: Claire Foy (First Man), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased), and Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots)

Should Be Nominated: Sakura Ando (Shoplifters), Zoe Kazan (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Rachel McAdams (Disobedience), and Haley Lu Richardson (Support the Girls)

Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet

The same people who’re curiously doubting Regina King’s nomination chances seem awfully assured that Sam Elliott’s moist-eyed, clearly canonical backing-the-truck-up scene in A Star Is Born assures him not only a nomination but probably the win. Elliott missed nominations with both the Golden Globes and BAFTA, and it was hard not to notice just how enthusiasm for A Star Is Born seemed to be cooling during the same period Oscar ballots were in circulation. Right around the same time, it started becoming apparent that BlacKkKlansman is a stronger draw than anyone thought, which means Adam Driver (who everyone was already predicting for a nod) won’t have to suffer the representationally awkward fate of being the film’s only nominee. Otherwise, the category appears to favor previously awarded actors (Mahershala Ali and Sam Rockwell) or should have been previously awarded actors (Chalamet). Leaving Michael B. Jordan to remain a should have been previously nominated actor.

Will Be Nominated: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), and Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Closest Runners-Up: Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) and Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

Should Be Nominated: Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Hugh Grant (Paddington 2); Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), and Steven Yeun (Burning)

Adapted Screenplay

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Get beyond the best picture hopefuls BlacKkKlansman and If Beale Street Could Talk, which seem deservedly locked, and A Star Is Born, which is even more deservedly iffy, and you’ll see the screenwriters’ branch deciding just how seriously to take themselves this year, and whether they’re feeling like spiritually reliving the moments that found them nominating Bridesmaids and Logan. If so, then expect Crazy Rich Asians and Black Panther to factor in here. If they most definitely don’t feel frisky, then maybe the foursquare First Man has a shot at reversing its overall downward trajectory. If they’re seeking that “just right” middle ground, then Can You Ever Forgive Me? and The Death of Stalin are in.

Will Be Nominated: BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Death of Stalin, If Beale Street Could Talk, and A Star Is Born

Closest Runners-Up: Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, and First Man

Should Be Nominated: BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Leave No Trace, The Grief of Others, and We the Animals

Original Screenplay

First Reformed

It’s not unusual for some of the year’s most acclaimed movies whose strength isn’t necessarily in their scripts to get nominated only in the screenwriting categories. First Reformed, which even some of its fiercest defenders admit can sometimes feel a bit like Paul Schrader’s “It’s Still Rock and Roll to Me” greatest-hits package, stands to be another of them. But it’ll be a close call, given the number of other equally vanguard options they’ll be weighing it against, like Sorry to Bother You, which arguably feels more urgently in the moment in form, Eighth Grade, which is more empathetically post-#MeToo, and even Cold War, which had a surprisingly strong showing with BAFTA. Given the quartet of assured best picture contenders in the mix, First Reformed is going to have to hold off all of them.

Will Be Nominated: The Favourite, First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, and Vice

Closest Runners-Up: Cold War, Eighth Grade, and Sorry to Bother You

Should Be Nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Bodied, First Reformed, Sorry to Bother You, and Western

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2018 Tony Nominations: Mean Girls and SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical Lead, Followed by Angels in America

The Tony nominations were announced Tuesday morning, with Mean Girls and SpongeBob SquarePants: the Musical leading the way with 12 nominations.



2018 Tony Nominations: Mean Girls and SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical Lead, Followed by Angels in America
Photo: Helen Maybanks

Nominations for the 72nd Tony Awards were announced this morning by Katharine McPhee and Leslie Odom Jr. Leading the pack with 12 nominations each is Mean Girls and SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical, followed by The Band’s Visit, Angels in America, and Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel, all three with 11. And with 10 nominations is Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two and the revival of My Fair Lady. The awards will be broadcast live from Radio City Music Hall on Sunday, June 10 on CBS.

See below for a full list of the nominations.

Best Book of a Musical
The Band’s Visit, Itamar Moses
Frozen, Jennifer Lee
Mean Girls, Tina Fey
SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical, Kyle Jarrow

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Angels in America, Music: Adrian Sutton
The Band’s Visit, Music & Lyrics: David Yazbek
Frozen, Music & Lyrics: Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Mean Girls, Music: Jeff Richmond, Lyrics: Nell Benjamin
SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical, Music & Lyrics: Yolanda Adams, Steven Tyler & Joe Perry of Aerosmith, Sara Bareilles, Jonathan Coulton, Alex Ebert of Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros, The Flaming Lips, Lady Antebellum, Cyndi Lauper & Rob Hyman, John Legend, Panic! at the Disco, Plain White T’s, They Might Be Giants, T.I., Domani & Lil’C

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Andrew Garfield, Angels in America
Tom Hollander, Travesties
Jamie Parker, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
Mark Rylance, Farinelli and The King
Denzel Washington, Eugene O’Neill’s The Iceman Cometh

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Glenda Jackson, Edward Albee’s Three Tall Women
Condola Rashad, Saint Joan
Lauren Ridloff, Children of a Lesser God
Amy Schumer, Meteor Shower

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady
Joshua Henry, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel
Tony Shalhoub, The Band’s Visit
Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady
Hailey Kilgore, Once On This Island
LaChanze, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical
Katrina Lenk, The Band’s Visit
Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls
Jessie Mueller, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Anthony Boyle, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
Michael Cera, Lobby Hero
Brian Tyree Henry, Lobby Hero
Nathan Lane, Angels in America
David Morse, Eugene O’Neill’s The Iceman Cometh

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Susan Brown, Angels in America
Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
Deborah Findlay, The Children
Denise Gough, Angels in America
Laurie Metcalf, Edward Albee’s Three Tall Women

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady
Alexander Gemignani, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel
Grey Henson, Mean Girls
Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical
Ari’el Stachel, The Band’s Visit

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Ariana DeBose, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical
Renée Fleming, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel
Lindsay Mendez, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel
Ashley Park, Mean Girls
Diana Rigg, My Fair Lady

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Miriam Buether, Edward Albee’s Three Tall Women
Jonathan Fensom, Farinelli and The King
Christine Jones, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
Santo Loquasto, Eugene O’Neill’s The Iceman Cometh
Ian MacNeil and Edward Pierce, Angels in America

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Dane Laffrey, Once On This Island
Scott Pask, The Band’s Visit
Scott Pask, Finn Ross & Adam Young, Mean Girls
Michael Yeargan, My Fair Lady
David Zinn, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

Best Costume Design of a Play
Jonathan Fensom, Farinelli and The King
Nicky Gillibrand, Angels in America
Katrina Lindsay, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
Ann Roth, Edward Albee’s Three Tall Women
Ann Roth, Eugene O’Neill’s The Iceman Cometh

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Mean Girls
Clint Ramos, Once On This Island
Ann Roth, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel
David Zinn, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical
Catherine Zuber, My Fair Lady

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Neil Austin, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
Paule Constable, Angels in America
Jules Fisher + Peggy Eisenhauer, Eugene O’Neill’s The Iceman Cometh
Paul Russell, Farinelli and The King
Ben Stanton, Junk

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Kevin Adams, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical
Jules Fisher + Peggy Eisenhauer, Once On This Island
Donald Holder, My Fair Lady
Brian MacDevitt, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel
Tyler Micoleau, The Band’s Visit

Best Sound Design of a Play
Adam Cork, Travesties
Ian Dickinson for Autograph, Angels in America
Gareth Fry, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
Tom Gibbons, 1984
Dan Moses Schreier, Eugene O’Neill’s The Iceman Cometh

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Kai Harada, The Band’s Visit
Peter Hylenski, Once On This Island
Scott Lehrer, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel
Brian Ronan, Mean Girls
Walter Trarbach and Mike Dobson, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

Best Direction of a Play
Marianne Elliott, Angels in America
Joe Mantello, Edward Albee’s Three Tall Women
Patrick Marber, Travesties
John Tiffany, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
George C. Wolfe, Eugene O’Neill’s The Iceman Cometh

Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, Once On This Island
David Cromer, The Band’s Visit
Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical
Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls
Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

Best Choreography
Christopher Gattelli, My Fair Lady
Christopher Gattelli, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical
Steven Hoggett, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls
Justin Peck, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel

Best Orchestrations
John Clancy, Mean Girls
Tom Kitt, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical
AnnMarie Milazzo and Michael Starobin, Once On This Island
Jamshied Sharifi, The Band’s Visit
Jonathan Tunick, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel

Best Play
The Children, Author: Lucy Kirkwood
Farinelli and The King, Author: Claire van Kampen
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two, Author: Jack Thorne
Junk, Author: Ayad Akhtar
Latin History for Morons, Author: John Leguizamo

Best Musical
The Band’s Visit
Mean Girls
SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

Best Revival of a Play
Angels in America
Edward Albee’s Three Tall Women
Eugene O’Neill’s The Iceman Cometh
Lobby Hero

Best Revival of a Musical
My Fair Lady
Once On This Island
Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel

Recipients of Awards and Honors in Non-competitive Categories

Special Tony Awards for Lifetime Achievement in the Theatre
Chita Rivera
Andrew Lloyd Webber

Special Tony Awards
John Leguizamo
Bruce Springsteen

Regional Theatre Tony Award
La MaMa E.T.C. New York City

Isabelle Stevenson Tony Award
Nick Scandalios

Tony Honors for Excellence in the Theatre
Sara Krulwich
Bessie Nelson
Ernest Winzer Cleaners

Tony Nominations by Production
Mean Girls – 12
SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical – 12
Angels in America – 11
The Band’s Visit – 11
Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel – 11
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two – 10
My Fair Lady – 10
Eugene O’Neill’s The Iceman Cometh – 8
Once On This Island – 8
Edward Albee’s Three Tall Women – 6
Farinelli and The King – 5
Travesties – 4
Frozen – 3
Lobby Hero – 3
The Children – 2
Junk – 2
Summer: The Donna Summer Musical – 2
Children of a Lesser God – 1
Latin History for Morons – 1
Meteor Shower – 1
1984 – 1
Saint Joan – 1

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions

This is a complete list of our predicted winners at the 2018 Academy Awards with links to individual articles.



Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions
Photo: Fox Searchlight Pictures

This is a complete list of our predicted winners at the 2018 Academy Awards with links to individual articles.

Picture: Get Out
Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name
Foreign Language: A Fantastic Woman
Documentary Feature: Icarus
Animated Feature Film: Coco
Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Animated Short: Revolting Rhymes
Live Action Short: The Eleven O’Clock
Film Editing: Dunkirk
Production Design: The Shape of Water
Cinematography: The Shape of Water
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Score: The Shape of Water
Song: “Remember Me,” Coco
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes

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