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Oscar 2002 Winner Predictions

Number crunching is in this year at the Academy Awards and it’s not just those pesky accountants.

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The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Photo: New Line Cinema

Number crunching is in this year at the Academy Awards and it’s not just those pesky accountants. Whoopi Goldberg is back for the fourth time as Oscar hostess and for his performance as happy-go-lucky mathematician lunatic John Nash, Russell Crowe could take home Oscar gold two years running. Baz Luhurmann didn’t make the cut but his Moulin Rouge! did—it’s the first musical to be nominated for Best Picture since All That Jazz in 1979. 77-year-old Golden Globe winner Robert Altman earned his fifth nomination for Best Director. Will the Academy go for his Gosford Park or something heavy on the Opie? With 13 nominations, though, Peter Jackson’s hobbits and wizards offer the kind of epic swing Oscar finds difficult to resist. Here are Slant Magazine’s predictions for who will arrive at the after-show parties with Oscar on their arm and who will show up empty-handed.

ACTOR: Tom Wilkinson’s performance in In the Bedroom is so under the radar it just about cancels out Sean Penn’s over-the-top I Am Sam turn. Crowe’s Golden Globe win for A Beautiful Mind is especially difficult to assess when looking at recent Globe-to-Oscar turnover rates. Crowe (The Insider) lost the 1999 Globe to Denzel Washington (The Hurricane) but Kevin Spacey (American Beauty) took home the Oscar. Tom Hanks (Cast Away) snagged last year’s Globe but Crowe won the Oscar for his Gladiator turn. Damien Bona, co-author of the seminal awards book Inside Oscar and author of its recently-published sequel Inside Oscar 2, concedes: “Hanks’s second victory seemed like an inevitability. There is certainly not an air of inevitability with Crowe this year. Last year when he won for Gladiator, it was mainly as a mea culpa, the Academy seemingly having decided that on second thought his performance in The Insider was more deserving than Kevin Spacey’s Oscar-winning work in American Beauty. There’s also a feeling these days that The Hurricane’s Denzel Washington, too, was better than Spacey, and that he got shafted because of the controversy regarding his movie. Therefore, many Academy members will undoubtedly cast their ballots this year with an eye to giving Denzel his make-up award.” Any chances of a Washington win, however, may have been dashed when Will Smith snagged one of the category’s two wild card spots from Billy Bob Thornton and Gene Hackman. A mixed blessing in disguise, could the category’s two African-American nominees cancel each other out? Still, with A Beautiful Mind packing so much sentimental steam, Crowe could very well join Hanks and Spencer Tracy in that elite two-in-a-row Best Actor club—that is, assuming Crowe’s BAFTA bad behavior hasn’t already nixed those chances. If Crowe looses the SAG award, Washington will likely make room for his second Oscar.

Will Win: Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind)

Should Win: Denzel Washington (Training Day)

ACTRESS: Thanks to Miramax, Renée Zellweger snagged the wild card spot that should have gone to Naomi Watts—as if Charlotte Rampling (Under the Sand) had a chance! Judi Dench earns her spot but not without a price: with four nominations in five years and one win for her cameo role in Shakespeare in Love, she’s the perennial presence still two or three nominations away from snagging Oscar number two. Halle Berry may now have industry cred but she still had to get naked to get Oscar’s attention; for her sake, let’s hope Academy members haven’t seen Swordfish. Sissy Spacek may be a virtual lock for a win but that hasn’t stopped Vegas odds-makers from putting her in a dead heat with Nicole Kidman. After a not-so-clean divorce from Tom Cruise, Kidman has sympathy on her side but Bona believes that any correlation between Vegas odds and actual wins are purely coincidental. “The Vegas odds-makers are clueless and have no feel for how Hollywood thinks. Spacek’s main competition, in my opinion, is Halle Berry, who had a far more dramatic role than Kidman and does more overt ’acting.’” Also, with ardent fans of Kidman’s other performance likely to vote elsewhere, this is Spacek’s award to lose.

Will Win: Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom)

Should Win: Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom)

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Papa Jolie snags his first Oscar nomination since 1985’s Runaway Train but his Howard Cosell from Michael Mann’s Ali will likely be seen as nothing more than a really snazzy impersonation. Voight rode Will Smith to an Oscar nod—ditto Ethan Hawke, who snags his first nomination for playing Denzel Washington’s white chump in Training Day. Bona, however, disagrees: “Hawke did no campaigning—in fact, in terms of his attitude to Hollywood glitz and awards, he can be thought of as the anti-Sally Kirkland. Academy members saw the film, loved Hawke’s subtle, gutsy and extraordinarily affecting work and voted for him simply because of the quality of his performance—which given all the time and money spent on soliciting Oscar voters is something rare and quite wonderful.” Academy members too frazzled by the expletives in Ben Kingsley’s Sexy Beast cockney accent will likely join the ranks in voting for Ian McKellen or Jim Broadbent. Sir Ian has The Fellowship of the Ring’s popularity on his side but Broadbent’s touching turn as Iris Murdoch’s grieving husband in Iris seems virtually unstoppable after its Golden Globe victory. A win for Broadbent may also be the closest thing to Oscar recognition for Moulin Rouge!, which is likely to fall short in a slew of technical categories.

Will Win: Jim Broadbent (Iris)

Should Win: Jim Broadbent (Iris)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Without a doubt the screwiest category of them all. So shocking was Marisa Tomei’s 1993 win over favorite Judy Davis (Husbands and Wives) that conspiracy theorists have yet to let up. Tomei is back, this time for her performance as a grieving hussy in Todd Field’s In the Bedroom. “Her role was too secondary,” claims Bona. “And because of her ever-changing accent, you didn’t know if her character was supposed to be from Maine or Queens. The main thing for Tomei is that this second nomination ends her reign as Oscar’s biggest joke.” For her charming, if not wholly memorable, turn as the young Iris Murdoch, Kate Winslet snags her third bridesmaid nomination. Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith are the chosen Gosford Park dames. Mirren gives the Altman film its heart but Smith’s stiletto-tongued performance lends it pizzazz—both should cancel each other out. With Jennifer Connelly doing most of the grunt work in A Beautiful Mind, a win for Crowe seems unlikely without her. For those betting the house on this one, here’s a few notable losers from this category’s past: Kate Hudson, Gloria Stuart, and Lauren Bacall.

Will Win: Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind)

Should Win: Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind)

ANIMATED FEATURE: Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius shocked pundits when it squeaked past Waking Life for a nomination in this newbie category. Shrek’s glib, postmodernist antics may have nothing on the heart-warming awe of Pixar’s Monsers, Inc. and while only a mere $15 million separates both films on the all-time box office chart, DreamWorks’s adult-skewing toon still feels like the biggest film of 2001. DreamWorks launched their aggressive marketing campaign back on Halloween with trick-or-treat baskets filled with chocolates, popcorn and a Shrek DVD. Since then, more “for your consideration” solicitations: DVD screeners, endless Academy screenings and a copy of the film’s screenplay. This kind of persistence should go unpunished.

Will Win: Shrek

Should Win: Monsers, Inc.

ART DIRECTION: Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone is a long shot here, its relatively banal art direction likely to bore rather than excite most Academy members. Amélie may be seen as the cinematographer’s wet dream while Moulin Rouge! will likely fare better for its costumes. Recent winners Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Sleepy Hollow suggest the spoils could go to the minimalists and Goths. There’s a reason why The Fellowship of the Ring enters the Oscar race with 13 nominations. Jackson’s visualization of J.R.R. Tolkien’s Middle-earth should be enough eye-popping splendor to sneak past the Gosford Park ultra-classy Brit sets.

Will Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

Should Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

CINEMATOGRAPHY: With his rep and critical nods, five-time nominee Roger Deakins, this year’s AFI and ASC winner for Best Cinematography, would normally be a lock for a win. Then again, his nomination is for the Coens’ possibly too-subtle The Man Who Wasn’t There. His fellow nominees are all first-timers so a win for Deakins would end an egregious losing streak. Slavomir Idziak (Black Hawk Down), Bruno Delbonnel (Amélie) and Donald McAlpine (Moulin Rouge!) are long shots but could all benefit from a possible vote split. Andrew Lesnie, the color wheel behind Babe and Babe: Pig in the City, could ride The Fellowship of the Ring fever straight to the podium. A win for Deakins, though, would be the most difficult class act the Academy could pass up.

Will Win: The Man Who Wasn’t There

Should Win: The Man Who Wasn’t There

COSTUME DESIGN: The best thing about The Affair of the Necklace was the bodices, courtesy of two-time winner Milena Canonero. Jenny Beavan, a past winner for A Room with a View, fares better—her film (Gosford Park) has the critical kudos and box office bucks. Two-time nominee Judianna Makovsky’s dusty garbs for Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone should go unnoticed. Catherine Martin’s husband couldn’t snag a nomination for directing Moulin Rouge! yet she and co-designer Angus Strathie could pose a threat to The Fellowship of the Ring’s Ngila Dickson and Richard Taylor. This three-horse raise is one of the more difficult ones to pinpoint. It’s also one of three likely trips Taylor will make to the Oscar podium—he’s also nominated for his makeup and visual effects work on the Jackson film.

Will Win: Moulin Rouge!

Should Win: Moulin Rouge!

DIRECTOR: After his surprise Golden Globe win, Robert Altman was seemingly situated as the director to beat on Oscar night. Indeed, with four previous losses in this category, a win for the 77-year-old maverick seemed like a sure thing. Once DGA nominations were announced, however, a major blow was dealt to pundits: no nomination for Altman. Someone who did make the cut was Ron Howard, who won the DGA award back in 1996 (for Apollo 13) despite losing his Oscar spot to men with grittier works (Tim Robbins and Mike Figgis). The DGA can be screwy but a win with them usually means a win with Oscar. Assuming the same folks accountable for Howard’s Apollo 13 snub are still active with the Academy, Opie might have to settle for the joy of nailing his first nomination. With Lynch and Ridley Scott out of the equation (their films failed to snag Best Picture nods), Howard and Jackson will have to ride their respective film’s runaway popularity in order to beat Altman. “Altman himself is highly respected rather than beloved,” says Bona. “The only way he can be expected to win is if support for Gosford Park is so overwhelming that it takes Best Picture. He has bad-mouthed Hollywood too much and for too long for Academy members to split their votes and give him the Best Director Oscar while voting for The Fellowship of the Ring or A Beautiful Mind for Best Picture.” Until the DGA award sheds more light on this one, there’s enough critical and popular hysteria behind The Fellowship of the Ring to help Jackson squeak past the veteran director.

Will Win: Peter Jackson (The Fellowship of the Ring)

Should Win: David Lynch (Mulholland Drive)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: In Christian Frei’s War Photographer, James Nachtwey morphs the chaos of war into fabulous, haunting photographs. Murder on a Sunday Morning tells the story of 15-year-old Brenton Butler, who was falsely accused in the shooting death of 65-year-old Mary Ann Stephens in Jacksonville, Florida. LaLee’s Kin: The Legacy of Cotton, an award-winner at last year’s Sundance Film Festival, explores the legacy of slavery in the Mississippi Delta while B.Z. Goldberg’s Promises follows seven Israeli and Palestinian children around Jersusalem, chronicling their fractured identities and hopeless worldview. Edet Belzberg’s Children Underground, also a Sundance winner, transcends exploit by subtly indicting the homeless plight of Romanian youth on Ceausescu’s ignorant legacy. In an unusual move, the Academy’s documentary committee has failed to nominate a film with a Holocaust theme. With America currently in anti-terrorist mode, the spoils should go the most topical document. The Legacy of Cotton and War Photographer may be too subtle for the Academy while Murder on a Sunday Morning should go unnoticed by members who have, in the past, rejected such films as 4 Little Girls and Paradise Lost. In this battle of the children, Edet Belzberg’s grueling, masterful Children Underground will have a difficult time defeating the timelier Promises.

Will Win: Children Underground

Should Win: Children Underground

DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Sarah Kernochan, whose credits include the story for What Lies Beneath and the screenplays for Sommersby and 9 1/2 Weeks, won an Academy Award back in 1973 for her documentary feature Marjoe, the rise-and-fall story of child evangelist Marjoe Gortner. Kernochan’s Thoth follows 47-year-old Stephen Kaufman through Central Park’s tunnels and fountains, celebrating the street performer’s colorful, uniquely schizoid solo operas. Thoth had a brief run in New York one month after the World Trade Center disaster and is now part of Art for America, a national fundraiser for the Twin Towers Fund. While certainly a tough act to pass up, Thoth might be a little too quirky for the Academy’s tastes. Jessica Sanders and Freida Lee Mock, five-time nominee and winner for 1994’s Maya Lin: A Strong Clear Vision, offer the more accessible Sing! while Lianne Klapper McNally’s Artists and Orphans: A True Drama could be irresistible with its inspirational story of a theater troupe visiting a Tbilisi orphanage.

Will Win: Thoth

Should Win: Thoth

FILM EDITING: At three hours, The Fellowship of the Ring may not move fast enough for some Academy members. Mike Hill and Daniel P. Hanley, Oscar winners for 1995’s Apollo 13, might have equipped Howard’s A Beautiful Mind with a tad too many fade-outs to make much of an impression with the Academy’s editor’s branch. And while Dody Dorn spliced and diced the film with the most editing brio, just how much of Memento’s pacing and structure was already laid out by Christopher Nolan’s precise, narrative template? This category’s results could determine whether Black Hawk Down will go back to its studio empty-handed. Pietro Scalia is hot off his nomination in this category for last year’s Gladiator but until the American Cinema Editors announce their awards on February 24th, Jill Billcock is packing enough heat from her AFI win to give her hyper-paced Moulin Rouge! the edge.

Will Win: Moulin Rouge!

Should Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: In any other year Harvey Weinstein could have bet his Miramax house on an Amélie win. Beloved by many though certainly not without its critics, Amélie has $25 million box office bucks on Danis Tanovic’s No Man’s Land but no Golden Globe on its side. The Foreign Press Association showed class by praising Tanovic but who’s to tell if Academy members will feel just as humanitarian when choosing between French fantasy and Bosnian satire. Norway’s Elling and classy Argentinian entry Son of the Bride will sit this one out while four-hour, international mega-hit Lagaan: Once Upon a Time in India could benefit from a possible vote split. With Weinstein cramming his expensive French drug down voter throats, No Man’s Land will likely be eating its own dust.

Will Win: Amélie

Should Win: Son of the Bride

MAKE-UP: Colleen Callaghan and Greg Cannon, an eight-time nominee and two-time winner for 1993’s Mrs. Doubtfire and 1992’s Dracula, are unlikely to take A Beautiful Mind’s age makeup to the Oscar stage. Still, with Cannon’s cred, his film’s hokey last act make-up extravaganza gives A Beautiful Mind the edge over Aldo Signoretti and Maurizio Silvi’s work on Moulin Rouge!. But for anyone whose seen the many faces of Jackson’s The Fellowship of the Ring, a win for Peter Owen and Richard Taylor seems like a no-brainer.

Will Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

Should Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

SCORE: Next to Angelo Badalamenti’s subversive, haunting soundscape for Mulholland Drive, none came better than Hans Zimmer’s awesome tribal-techno score for Black Hawk Down—neither man was nominated for his work. Hollywood score whore John Williams rakes up his fortieth and forty-first nominations for A.I. Artificial Intelligence and Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone. Williams’s haunting A.I. score will likely be nulled by his lighter Harry Potter tunes. With Randy Newman still the Susan Lucci of the Oscars, a win for Monsers, Inc. would be as earth-shattering as a, um, win for Susan Lucci. James Horner’s cutesy, tinkly score for A Beautiful Mind seems to have its fans but first-time nominee Howard Shore’s epic beats for The Fellowship of the Ring will be difficult to overcome.

Will Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

Should Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

SONG: Diane Warren knows how to market her schmaltz but with her Pearl Harbor anthem hardly a crossover hit on the Billboard charts, six-time nominee Warren will likely continue her losing streak. Randy Newman’s “If I Didn’t Have You” from Monsters, Inc. doesn’t have the hakuna matata the Academy prefers from their Disney tunes. Vanilla Sky certainly had the songs right and a nomination for Paul MaCartney has to count for something even when the film did not. Enya scored another hit album with A Day Without Rain but her “May It Be” for The Fellowship of the Ring doesn’t hold a candle to her hit single “Only Time.” The Golden Globes are especially good at predicting the Best Song category so a win for “Until” tune Kate & Leopold seems likely for Adult Contemporary favorite Sting.

Will Win: Kate & Leopold

Should Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

PICTURE: They may have their critics but backlash fever has yet to strike Howard’s A Beautiful Mind and Jackson’s The Fellowship of the Ring. While PGA winner Moulin Rouge! once seemed poised to reap the rewards of a possible vote split, late-in-the-game critical accolades for Gosford Park have made Robert Altman’s Brit dramedy the likelier upset victor. This year’s Miramax-bought spot goes to In the Bedroom but without a nomination for director Todd Field, Weinstein and his gang will have to sit this one out with Baz Luhrmann. Since the Academy’s top prize typically goes to the film with the most nominations, a win for mega-epic The Fellowship of the Ring seems most plausible. A win for A Beautiful Mind, however, is certainly not out of the equation. Howard’s glossy, TV-movie take on John Nash’s insanity has the market cornered: Crowe has set female heart’s afire while the film’s morally-questionable, trick narrative has corralled Hollywood old-schoolers. In this nailbiter battle between heart and soul, the epic-swing of The Fellowship of the Ring seems to have the upper hand.

Will Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

Should Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

ANIMATED SHORT: Ruairi Robinson and Seamus Byrne’s outstanding Fifty Percent Grey tells the gruesome story of a futuristic sergeant who awakens in a desolate environment with only a widescreen TV as his companion. This ironic, visually-arresting short packs an existentialist wallop but its suicidal theme may be too bloody for some Academy members. Cathal Gaffney’s Give Up Yer Aul Sins wonderfully combines sound with old-fashioned animated footage to create a charming tale of one Irish girl’s potent Dublin identity. Strange Invaders, Cordell Barker’s first film since his awesome 1988 Oscar-nominated short The Cat Came Back, tells the kooky story of a childless couple sent into a panic when a strange child pays them a surreal, nighttime visit. This vastly uneven short is nowhere near as compact and bouncy as The Cat Came Back and is likely to leave many Academy members annoyed rather than entertained. Philip Holahan’s cute but minor Stubble Touble, a 1999 Sundance winner, is the claustrophobic story of a claymation couple in the shape of human feet. Sadly, the Academy will honor Monsers, Inc. in a roundabout way when it throws a bone at Pixar’s For the Birds, the adorable short that preceded Monsters, Inc. in theaters.

Will Win: For the Birds

Should Win: Strange Invaders

SHORT: LIVE ACTION: Ray McKinnon’s absurd, quaintly stylized The Accountant seems too quirky for Academy tastes while Copy Shop, the story of a copy shop worker who copies himself until he fills the whole world, may be too much Kafka for one night. Kalman Apple’s Speed for Thespians takes Anton Shekhov’s The Bear onto a New York City bus; it has absolutely nothing to do with crystal meth, which should tire any member still hoping for a Moulin Rouge! Best Picture win. Slawomir Fabicki’s A Man Thing (Meska Sprawa) tells the story of a 13-year-old trying to hide the fact that his father beats him. At 26 minutes, it might pack enough tragedy to win over weepier members. Based on premise alone, though, Johannes Kiefer’s Gregor’s Greatest Invention screams Oscar. Winner of the Brooks Pharmacy Positive Lifestyle Award and Best Short Comedy at the Burbank International Children’s Film Festival, Invention is the story of a man who invents a floating balloon device for his invalid grandmother.

Will Win: Gregor’s Greatest Invention

Should Win: The Accountant

SOUND: Amélie has its colors, Moulin Rouge! its songs and The Fellowship of the Ring its vistas. For blowing things up, the Oscar should go to one of two Bruckheimer war films: Black Hawk Down or Pearl Harbor. Two wins for the Bay film may be too much for some to handle but the fact that the film also shows up in the Sound Effects Editing category suggests the film’s sound designers have their fans.

Will Win: Pearl Harbor

Should Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

SOUND EDITING: While the Academy was able to come up with five films for its Best Sound category, the lonely race for Best Sound Effects Editing pits Pixar against Bruckheimer. Noticeably absent here is Black Hawk Down. Twelve-time nominee Gary Rydstrom shares his Monsers, Inc. nod with first-time nominee Michael Silvers. Christopher Boyes, who is nominated in the Best Sound category for his work on The Fellowship of the Ring, should have no problem riding Pearl Harbor to Oscar victory. Boyes won in this category back in 1998 for his Titanic sound editing.

Will Win: Pearl Harbor

Should Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

VISUAL EFFECTS: The visual effects mavens behind A.I. Artificial Intelligence have tackled everything from Star Wars and Flashdance to Jurassic Park and Terminator 2: Judgment Day. The most notable member from the Pearl Harbor group is Eric Breving, who won the Oscar back in 1991 for his work on Total Recall. Still, it would take a minor miracle to defeat The Fellowship of the Ring in this category. Richard Taylor, who is also nominated in the make-up and costume design categories, could leave the Kodak Theatre a little weak in the jaw.

Will Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

Should Win: The Fellowship of the Ring

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: With Steve Buscemi missing from the supporting actor race, it’s a small miracle that Daniel Clowes and Terrry Zwigoff’s delicate screenplay for Ghost World made the cut. Todd Field and Robert Festinger’s subtle In the Bedroom adaptation will make just as small of an impression on the Academy. Those still confused by Shrek’s nomination in this category (Academy President Frank Pierson says “it’s a real story”) might even forget that the film is even nominated. Two-time Razzie nominee Akiva Goldsman won the Golden Globe his screenplay for A Beautiful Mind but will the Academy vote for a writer whose previous credits include Batman & Robin and A Time to Kill? With controversy still circulating around A Beautiful Mind’s selective recollection of John Nash’s life, Goldsman may be at a disadvantage. Nonetheless, the Academy loves solo jobs so a win for Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens and Peter Jackson’s The Fellowship of the Ring screenplay could mean too many writers on one stage.

Will Win: A Beautiful Mind

Should Win: Ghost World

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: No nominee in this category can quite rival what Wes Anderson does with The Royal Tenenbaums. His is a nuanced story of fairy-tale characters seeking entrance to fairy-tale kingdoms—it’s so good that a win with Oscar could be the classiest choice of the night. Milo Addica and Will Rokos’s screenplay for Monster’s Ball will surely fly under the Oscar radar and while Audrey Tautou’s two facial expressions (happy and sad) just about defined the whole of Amelie, Guillaume Larant and Jean-Pierre Jeunet still managed to snag a spot for their screenplay. This category affords the Academy the chance to award edgier, splashier work that fails to make an impression in other categories. Past winners include The Piano, The Crying Game, The Usual Suspects, Good Will Hunting and Pulp Fiction. Julian Fellowes could take it with his WGA-winning Gosford Park screenplay but a win for Christopher Nolan’s twisty noir thriller Memento would be an obvious pat on the back to a rising talent.

Will Win: Memento

Should Win: The Royal Tenenbaums

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Awards

Oscar 2020: Complete Winners List

Parasite earned four awards, edging out 1917 for best picture.

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Parasite
Photo: Neon

Across the last month, we contemplated various pendulum swings, drew links between the Oscar voting process and the Iowa caucuses, and generally mulled over the academy’s ongoing existential crisis, only to come the conclusion that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Or that’s what we thought prior to the Academy Awards ceremony. In a welcome surprise, Parasite took the top prize, becoming the first international title to do so in the history of the awards show, while Bong Joon-ho became the first director since Roman Polanski to win the directing Oscar after failing to win the DGA prize. (Parasite is also the first Palme d’Or winner since Marty way back in 1955 to claim best picture.)

In the era of the preferential ballot, one stat or another has been thrown out the window each year, but after last night, it feels like every last one was shattered to bits, and that the triumph of Bong film’s could signal a shift in the industry when it comes to not just what sorts of stories can be told. Indeed, Parasite’s victory is redolent of Moonlight’s no less historic one a few years ago, giving us hope that the very definition of an “Oscar movie” has been forever rewritten. Predicting the Oscars has become a little bit harder now.

Here’s the full list of winners.

Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite (WINNER)

Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite (WINNER)

Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (WINNER)
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy (WINNER)

Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (WINNER)

Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story (WINNER)
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi (WINNER)
Joker, Todd Phillips and Scott Silver
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten

Original Screenplay
Knives Out, Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Parasite, Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won (WINNER)

International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea) (WINNER)

Documentary Feature
American Factory, Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, and Jeff Reichert
The Cave, Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod, and Sigrid Dyekjær
The Edge of Democracy, Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, and Tiago Pavan
For Sama, Waad al-Kateab and Edward Watts
Honeyland, Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska, and Atanas Georgiev

Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis, and Bonnie Arnold
I Lost My Body, Jérémy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
Klaus, Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh, and Marisa Román
Missing Link, Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner, and Travis Knight
Toy Story 4, Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen, and Jonas Rivera (WINNER)

Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari, Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland (WINNER)
The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker
Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles
Joker, Jeff Groth
Parasite, Yang Jinmo

Cinematography
The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
Joker, Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke
1917, Roger Deakins (WINNER)
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Robert Richardson

Production Design
The Irishman, Bob Shaw and Regina Graves
Jojo Rabbit, Ra Vincent and Nora Sopková
1917, Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh (WINNER)
Parasite, Lee Ha-jun and Cho Won-woo

Costume Design
The Irishman, Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
Jojo Rabbit, Mayes C. Rubeo
Joker, Mark Bridges
Little Women, Jacqueline Durran (WINNER)
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Arianne Phillip

Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame, Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken, and Dan Sudick
The Irishman, Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, and Stephane Grabli
The Lion King, Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Elliot Newman
1917, Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy (WINNER)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy

Original Score
Joker, Hildur Guðnadóttir (WINNER)
Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story, Randy Newman
1917, Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams

Sound Mixing
Ad Astra, Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson, and Mark Ulano
Ford v Ferrari, Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow
Joker, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, and Tod Maitland
1917, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson (WINNER)
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, and Mark Ulano

Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari, Donald Sylvester (WINNER)
Joker, Alan Robert Murray
1917, Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Wylie Stateman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Matthew Wood and David Acord

Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker (WINNER)
Joker, Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
Judy, Jeremy Woodhead
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, and David White
1917, Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole

Original Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4, Randy Newman
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman, Elton John and Bernie Taupin
“I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough, Diane Warren
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2, Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“Stand Up,” Harriet, Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo

Live-Action Short
Brotherhood, Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
Nefta Footfall Club, Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi
The Neighbor’s Window, Marshall Curry (WINNER)
Saria, Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre
A Sister, Delphine Girard

Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence, Yi Seung-jun and Gary Byung-seok Kam
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl), Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
Life Overtakes Me, John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson
St. Louis Superman, Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
Walk, Run, Chacha, Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt

Animated Short
Daughter, Daria Kashcheeva
Hair Love, Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver (WINNER)
Kitbull, Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
Memorable, Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre
Sister, Siqi Song

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Oscar 2020 Winner Predictions: Picture

How could the essentially non-political 1917 not arrive as sweet solace in our cultural moment?

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1917
Photo: Universal Pictures

We now have roughly a decade’s worth of data to postulate how ranked-choice ballots have altered the outcome of the top Oscar prize, and we’ve come to understand what the notion of a “most broadly liked” contender actually entails. And in the wake of wins for The Artist, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, The Shape of Water, and most especially Green Book last year, we’re left with the impression that the biggest change in what defines a best picture is no change whatsoever. In fact, what appears to have happened is that it’s acted as a bulwark, preserving the AMPAS’s “tradition of quality” in the top prize during a decade in which the concept of a run-the-table Oscar juggernaut has shifted from the postcard pictorials of Out of Africa to immersive epics like Gravity and Mad Max: Fury Road, both of which won two to three times as many awards as the films they lost out to for the top prize.

We’re far from the only ones who’ve noticed that—Moonlight eternally excepted—the contours of best picture winners seem to be drifting in the opposite direction of where Academy representatives have indicated they want to go. Wesley Morris recently concluded that, despite his fondness, if not downright love, for the majority of this year’s top contenders, the slate still just doesn’t jibe with a purportedly forward-thinking, brand-spanking-new academy: “Couldn’t these nine movies just be evidence of taste? Good taste? They certainly could. They are. And yet … the assembly of these movies feels like a body’s allergic reaction to its own efforts at rehabilitation.” Melissa Villaseñor’s jovial refrain of “white male rage” two weeks ago knowingly reduced this awards cycle down to absurdly black-or-white terms, but if the YouTube comments on that SNL bit are any indication, raging white males aren’t in the mood to have a sense of humor about themselves, much less welcome serious introspection.

Neither is that demographic alone in its disgruntlement. What was yesteryear’s “brutally honest Oscar voter” has become today’s “blithely, incuriously sexist, racist, and xenophobic Oscar voter.” As the saying goes, this is what democracy looks like, and given sentiments like “I don’t think foreign films should be nominated with the regular films” and “they should have gotten an American actress to play Harriet,” it looks a lot like the second coming of Hollywood’s Golden Age gorgons of gossip, Hedda Hopper and Louella Parsons.

It might be a stretch but we can imagine that, to many voters, the presumptive frontrunner, Sam Mendes’s 1917, comes off a lot less like a first-person video game mission and a lot more representative of what it feels like to navigate our landmine-strewn cultural landscape as your average politically neoliberal, artistically reactionary academy member circa 2020. Especially one forced to make snap decisions in the midst of an accelerated Oscar calendar. And even if that is, rhetorically speaking, a bridge too far, there’s no denying the backdrop of representational fatigue and socio-political retreat liberal America is living through.

How could the stiff-lipped, single-minded, technically flawless, quietly heroic, and, most importantly, essentially non-political 1917 not arrive as sweet solace in this moment? It’s the same reason why we suspect, despite ranked-choice ballots pushing Bong Joon-ho’s insanely and broadly liked Parasite in major contention for the prize, it’s actually Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit we most strongly fear pulling off an upset. After all, how many Oscar voters are still more concerned about Nazis than they are global income inequality? Or, if you’d rather, how many of their homes look more like the Parks’ than like the Kims’?

Will Win: 1917

Could Win: Jojo Rabbit

Might Win: Parasite

Should Win: The Irishman, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, or Parasite

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Oscar 2020 Winner Predictions: Director

Given the academy’s long history and resurgent embrace of technical triumphs, we’re not holding our breath for an upset here.

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Sam Mendes
Photo: Universal Pictures

Last week, when Eric brought to my attention the New York Times article that exposed the myth of Hollywood being in the tank for movies about the industry, I used the piece as a jumping-off point for why Quentin Tarantino was vulnerable in the original screenplay category. At the time, I thought I was stepping on Eric’s toes by referencing his intel, believing him to be charged with giving our readers the lowdown in this category. Turns out he was tasked with whipping up our take on the film editing contest, meaning that I had stepped on my own toes. Which is to say, almost everything I already said about why QT was likely to come up short in original screenplay applies here, and then some.

Indeed, just as math tells us that the academy’s adulation for navel-gazing portraitures of Hollywood has been exaggerated by the media, it also tells us that this award is Sam Mendes’s to lose after the 1917 director won the DGA award, the most accurate of all Oscar precursors, having predicted the winner here 64 times in 71 years. A win for the pin-prick precision of Bong Joon-ho’s direction of Parasite would be a welcome jaw-dropper, as it would throw several stats out the window and, in turn, get us a little more excited about predicting the Oscars next year. But given the academy’s long history and resurgent embrace of technical triumphs—trust us, the math checks out—we’re not holding our breath.

Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917

Could Win: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Should Win: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

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Oscar 2020 Winner Predictions: Film Editing

The only thing louder than the vroom-vroom of James Mangold’s dad epic is the deafening chorus of “Best. Movie. Ever.”

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Parasite
Photo: Neon

This past Monday, while the nation waited hour after embarrassing hour for the Iowa caucus results to start rolling in, Film Twitter puzzled over an AMPAS tweet that seemed to leak this year’s Oscar winners—before the voting window had even closed. It didn’t help matters that the slate of “predictions” tweeted by the academy seemed plausible enough to be real, right down to Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite for best picture.

As it turned out, the academy’s problems weren’t so unlike the DNC app gumming up the works in, as the New York Post shadily dubbed it, “Duh Moines.” And sure enough, AMPAS fessed up to a quality-control gremlin (sorry, “issue”) that resulted in someone’s personal predictions going out on the main account. As Iowa’s snafu reaffirmed that Occam’s razor isn’t just something you need to keep out of Arthur Fleck’s hands, we’re 100% certain that the intern who posted that ballot on the academy’s account meant to post it on their personal one.

Speaking of Joker, if you would’ve asked us even just a few days ago whether we thought Ford v Ferrari was any more likely than Todd Phillips’s dank meme to take the Oscar in the category that has frequently been characterized as the strongest bellwether for a film’s overall best picture chances, we’d have probably collapsed in a fit of incontrollable giggles. And yet, with a BAFTA film editing win in Ford v Ferrari’s favor, we’re not the only ones wondering if the least-nominated best picture nominee actually has more in its tank than meets the eye.

The only thing louder than the vroom-vroom of James Mangold’s dad epic, however, is the deafening chorus of “Best. Movie. Ever.” being sung on Parasite’s behalf, and indeed, it was selected as the academy’s unofficial, accidental prediction in this category. As Ed noted yesterday, momentum is in its favor like no other film this year. Well, maybe one other, and it was mere providence that the one-shot gestalt kept Sam Mendes’s 1917 off the ballot here, or else one of the tougher calls of the night could’ve been that much tougher.

Will Win: Parasite

Could Win: Ford v Ferrari

Should Win: Parasite

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Oscar 2020 Winner Predictions: Original Screenplay

One of the realities of the Oscar race is that you never want to peak too early.

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Parasite
Photo: Neon

So much has happened across the home stretch of this perversely shortened awards season that it’s almost difficult to process it all. Believe it or not, at the start of our rolling Oscar prediction coverage, just after the Golden Globes and a few days before the Producers Guild of America Awards announced its top prize, I was still confident in my belief that we were heading toward another picture/director split, with Jojo Rabbit taking the former and Quentin Tarantino the latter. But flash forward two weeks and we’re now looking at an Oscar ceremony that will be in lockstep with the final wave of guilds and awards groups, leaving frontrunners in various categories up to this point in the dust.

Case in point: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood in original screenplay. Even after a recent New York Times article used old-fashioned math to expose the myth being propagated by awards pundits—even us!—that Hollywood is in love with seeing its image reflected back at itself, we figured that the film, even if it isn’t our stealth best picture frontrunner, and even if it isn’t Tarantino’s swan song, couldn’t lose here. After all, the category is practically synonymous with QT, who only needs one more win to tie Woody Allen for most Oscars here.

And then—tell us if you’ve heard this one before—Parasite happened. Here’s a category in which Oscar voters aren’t reluctant to award genre fare, or re-imaginations of that fare. That’s Tarantino’s stock in trade…as well as Bong Joon-hoo’s. Parasite’s screenplay, co-written by Bong and Han Jin-won, found favor with the WGA last weekend, and while we weren’t ready to call this race for the film at that time—Tarantino isn’t a WGA member, and as such can’t be nominated for the guild’s awards—we’re doing so in the wake of the South Korean satire winning the BAFTA against Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. That victory proves, among other things, that one of the realities of the Oscar race is that you never want to peak too early.

Will Win: Parasite

Could Win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Should Win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

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Oscar 2020 Winner Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

Oscar has a long-standing history of using the screenplay awards for token gestures, especially toward writer-directors.

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Jojo Rabbit

As soon as the Oscar nominations were announced and the headlines were dominated by the academy’s cold shoulder toward female directors, it sure felt like the balance of this race was tipped in Greta Gerwig’s favor. After all, Oscar has a long-standing history of using the screenplay awards for token gestures, especially toward writer-directors; they’re where filmmakers like Spike Lee, Sofia Coppola, Pedro Almodóvar, Jordan Peele, Spike Jonze, and, to date, Quentin Tarantino have won their only Oscars.

Gerwig’s status as the most conspicuous best director castaway in this category might not in itself have been enough to push her through, but virtually all the press on her exceptionally good Little Women has focused specifically on how successfully she remixed the novel vis-a-vis jaunting back and forth between different periods in the chronology. Her framing device allows the novel and its modern fans to have their cake and eat it too, to be told a story overly familiar to them in a way that makes the emotional arcs feel fresh and new, to be enraptured by the period details that have always fascinated them but then also come away from it feeling fully reconciled with Jo’s “marriage” to Professor Bhaer. Within the world of pop filmmaking, if that doesn’t constitute excellence in screenwriting adaption, what indeed does?

Alas, as was confirmed at this weekend’s BAFTA and WGA awards, the token gesture this year looks to be spent not on Gerwig, but the category’s other writer-director who missed out in the latter category. We’re no fans of Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit, and we aren’t alone, as it boasts the lowest score of any best picture nominee this year on Metacritic. Still, we admit that it must touch a nerve somewhere in the average academy voter who not only finds the Holocaust so irresistible a subject that they’re willing to back a film that this year’s crop of “honest Oscar posters” memorably dubbed Lolocaust, but who also, while continuing to feel increasingly persecuted about the online catcalls over their questionable taste, would right about now love to drop kick Film Twitter out a window like Jojo does Waititi’s positively puckish Hitler.

Will Win: Jojo Rabbit

Could Win: Little Women

Should Win: Little Women

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Oscar 2020 Winner Predictions: Production Design

Oscar voters are suckers for scale, throwbacks, ostentation, and, above all, a sense of prestige.

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Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Photo: Columbia Pictures

Oscar voters are suckers for scale, throwbacks, ostentation, and, above all, a sense of prestige. No film nominated in this category checks off all those boxes, but two come close: The Irishman and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. While the former never caught fire the way it needed to in order to vie for even the major prizes, the latter has been cruising toward more than just a win in this category from the second people laid eyes on it out of Cannes last year. Regardless of what you think of Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, it’s difficult to imagine the scope of Quentin Tarantino’s sense of regard for a bygone Hollywood being possible without Barbara Ling’s production design and Nancy Haigh’s set decoration.

Still, this one is going to be a squeaker. First, there’s the matter of 1917’s late-in-the-game surge and whether or not the film can run the table in the technical categories, even in this particular one where war films almost never prevail. And then there’s Parasite. Near the start of our rolling Oscar coverage, I mentioned how almost every day is bringing us some article praising the perfectly lit and designed architectural purgatory that is that film’s main setting. Now there’s a black-and-white version of the film making the rounds that will certainly allow people to think anew on the dimensions of the film’s thematic and aesthetic surfaces. Because winning in most of Oscar’s tech categories isn’t about restraint, but “more is more,” Parasite’s concentrated sense of texture is more likely the spoiler to the vividly haunted past-ness that clings to every surface across Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood’s plethora of settings.

Will Win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Could Win: Parasite

Should Win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

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Oscar 2020 Winner Predictions: Visual Effects

The tea leaves are reading that it will be another win for middlebrow respectability.

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1917
Photo: Universal Pictures

Typically, it’s the short film categories that are most likely to trip up Oscar pool participants hoping to run the table, and not just among those who haven’t bothered to watch the nominees. A check on our own record reveals a number of years in which we failed to correctly guess at least one of them. It’s far more rare for the visual effects category to be one of any given year’s toughest calls. A quick glance at recent category history shows that Oscar voters clearly prefer what the industry refers to as “supporting” effects in a respectable movie for adults, like Life of Pi, Inception, and last year’s winner, First Man. Heck, voters are so counterintuitively serious-minded about this category that they eschewed the rollickingly impolite Mad Max: Fury Road—a juggernaut in the technical races back in 2015—instead opting for the not-just-comparatively minimalist Ex Machina.

Unfortunately, this year’s slate is almost ominously balanced between highbrow supporting effects, photorealistic animated animals in a kiddie epic, and template-oriented maximalism in support of action franchises. The result is the only slate where a bet on any given nominee would pay out more than double your investment, according to the latest Vegas oddsmakers. Still, the Visual Effects Society just handed the better chunk of their honors to The Lion King. It’s tempting to take stock of that, to consider The Jungle Book’s win three years ago, and to admit that the Disney remake is largely in a lane of its own here, and then take that as our cue to “hakuna matata” our way out of any further deliberation.

And yet, we’re not troubled by the VES awards’ preference for The Irishman over 1917 in their “serious movies” category. For one, the effects industry’s own affinity for character-oriented work is well-documented. Out in the wild, the uncanny valley of Scorsese’s age-reversing trickery has been as widely ridiculed as it has been embraced, especially that moment when Robert De Niro’s hitman roughs someone up in flashback, bearing a waxy youthful face but a very much seventysomething body. Given 1917’s 11th-hour surge, its Gravity-ish use of effects to blur cinematography, editing, and postproduction, and the fact that its grandest fabricated images never get in the way of the story, cue another win for middlebrow respectability.

Will Win: 1917

Could Win: The Lion King

Should Win: 1917

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Oscar 2020 Winner Predictions: Supporting Actress

One of the great mysteries of this year’s awards season is the ultimate fate of Jojo Rabbit.

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Laura Dern
Photo: Netflix

One of the great mysteries of this year’s awards season that won’t be answered until the end of next week’s Oscar telecast is whether or not Jojo Rabbit will go home empty-handed. Taika Waititi’s film seemed destined for the top prize as soon as it won last year’s audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival, and then, well, lots of things happened since then, but nothing quite so damaging to the film’s awards ambitions than 1917, with which it likely shares more of a fan overlap than any other film in the best picture race. We don’t believe that there are enough academy members who cast votes with the intention of “spreading the wealth” to sway races in unexpected directions, but we do believe that Jojo Rabbit remains a major player in any category where it isn’t nominated against 1917.

That’s us saying that a win for Scarlett Johansson in the supporting actress race wouldn’t surprise us. And the only reason that we’re not going to call it for her is because there are other narratives that we believe in when it comes to securing an academy member’s vote, such as a nominee’s devotion to the campaign trail. The stars have lined up perfectly across the last few months for three-time Oscar nominee Laura Dern, a celebrated veteran of the industry who, for us, sealed the deal with her gracious SAG speech, which she prefaced with a touching pit stop at the Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood table in order to give her father, Bruce Dern, a hug. Also, given that Johansson is the likeliest spoiler in the best actress race, for a performance that would be difficult to imagine without her Marriage Story co-star’s collaboration, we’re also of the belief that if enough voters consider a vote for Johansson here an act of redundancy, if not betrayal, Dern’s victory is all but guaranteed.

Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Could Win: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Should Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

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Oscar 2020 Winner Predictions: Costume Design

The path of least resistance and most chronological distance almost always wins here.

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Little Women
Photo: Columbia Pictures

When we shared Odie Henderson’s un-improvable joke, “Who wins the Costume Design Oscar for Joker? The Goodwill?,” we admit we hadn’t yet bothered to look up the person responsible for its downtrodden anti-chic shabbery. And seeing it was none other than Phantom Thread’s Oscar-winning Mark Bridges chastened us only long enough for us to remember that he was left off the ballot at the BAFTAs in favor of Jany Temime’s work on Judy, which, no matter what you think of the film itself, makes a lot more sense as a nominee in a category that, as Bridges well knows, often defaults to frock fervor. So while we could easily get more bent out of shape that the Costume Designers Guild this week gave its award for excellence in period film costuming to Mayes C. Rubeo for Jojo Rabbit, and while we could also ponder how this year’s slate skews not only surprisingly modern, but also far more male-centric than usual (from Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson’s baggy midcentury suits in The Irishman to Arianne Phillips’s groovy Cali duds in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood), the path of least resistance and most chronological distance almost always wins here. Jacqueline Durran’s win is both deserved and assured.

Will Win: Little Women

Could Win: Jojo Rabbit

Should Win: Little Women

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