2009 Oscar Race: Composite Winner Predictions
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/22/2009 15:05:20 In: Oscars Comments: 11
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Directing: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Sean Penn for Milk
Actress: Kate Winslet for The Reader
Actor in a Supporting Role: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Actress in a Supporting Role: Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay: Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Foreign Language Film: The Class
Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Animated Feature Film: WALL-E
Documentary Short: Smile Pinki
Animated Short: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Live Action Short: Toyland
Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Song: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Mixing: Slumdog Millionaire
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Directing: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Sean Penn for Milk
Actress: Kate Winslet for The Reader
Actor in a Supporting Role: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Actress in a Supporting Role: Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay: Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Foreign Language Film: The Class
Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Animated Feature Film: WALL-E
Documentary Short: Smile Pinki
Animated Short: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Live Action Short: Toyland
Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Song: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Mixing: Slumdog Millionaire
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Picture
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/22/2009 15:04:48 In: Oscars Comments: 0
Because it pushes that button. Because it makes them feel like sitting on trains. Because you know Sharon Stone texted Dev Patel: U R A Q T. Because it got them wondering why everyone got hustle on their mind. Because they like the sound of them knocking on the doors of their hummers. Because Bucky done gone. Because they shake their ass, making moves on a mover. Because Indian chicks, they get men laid. Because of gold and diamond gems and jades. Because of painted nails, sunsets on horizons. Because the price of living in a shanty town just seems very high. Because they're sick of all the shit that's keepin' them down. Because it got them to whistle, whistle, blow, blow.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Not The Reader or Frost/Nixon
Because it pushes that button. Because it makes them feel like sitting on trains. Because you know Sharon Stone texted Dev Patel: U R A Q T. Because it got them wondering why everyone got hustle on their mind. Because they like the sound of them knocking on the doors of their hummers. Because Bucky done gone. Because they shake their ass, making moves on a mover. Because Indian chicks, they get men laid. Because of gold and diamond gems and jades. Because of painted nails, sunsets on horizons. Because the price of living in a shanty town just seems very high. Because they're sick of all the shit that's keepin' them down. Because it got them to whistle, whistle, blow, blow.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Not The Reader or Frost/Nixon
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Sound Mixing
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/21/2009 17:14:15 In: Oscars Comments: 0
As the presence of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (which was snubbed in the other sound category) would attest, Sound Mixing is the category that far more obviously favors best picture players. It's Sound Editing that usually tips toward the Masters and Commanders, the Lords of the Rings, the Kings Kongs as though the entire category were one big tie-in with Visual Effects and Makeup. So if Slumdog Millionaire is the frontrunner (or, given the remote possibility that we're wrong, a very, very strong contender) in Sound Editing, there's absolutely no reason to think that it won't take this in a walk. If that's not enough to convince you, remember that previous winners in this category include Chicago, Ray, and Dreamgirls. Oscar loves a showtune, and Slumdog's clodhopping but exuberant train station throwdown is the closest thing this category has to a showstopper.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E
As the presence of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (which was snubbed in the other sound category) would attest, Sound Mixing is the category that far more obviously favors best picture players. It's Sound Editing that usually tips toward the Masters and Commanders, the Lords of the Rings, the Kings Kongs as though the entire category were one big tie-in with Visual Effects and Makeup. So if Slumdog Millionaire is the frontrunner (or, given the remote possibility that we're wrong, a very, very strong contender) in Sound Editing, there's absolutely no reason to think that it won't take this in a walk. If that's not enough to convince you, remember that previous winners in this category include Chicago, Ray, and Dreamgirls. Oscar loves a showtune, and Slumdog's clodhopping but exuberant train station throwdown is the closest thing this category has to a showstopper.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Costume Design
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/20/2009 14:45:44 In: Oscars Comments: 0
Lessons learned from the winners in this category in the last decade: gothic is a no-no (just ask Colleen Atwood, who's only won for Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha); the frilliest attires almost always rule, regardless of whether the film that contains them is an abomination (Elizabeth: The Golden Age); and in the rare cases where the Pre-Frilly and Post-Frilly eras reign supreme, the films must be Best Picture honorees (Gladiator, The Aviator) and boast costumes that are at least as opulent as the Taj Mahal and Sharon Stone's affections for Dev Patel. Weird that Slumdog Millionaire didn't manage a nomination here, but that only makes this one of the easiest calls of the evening. Anyone who tells you otherwise doesn't know Oscar or their Prada from their Pucci.
Will Win: The Duchess
Should Win: The Duchess
Lessons learned from the winners in this category in the last decade: gothic is a no-no (just ask Colleen Atwood, who's only won for Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha); the frilliest attires almost always rule, regardless of whether the film that contains them is an abomination (Elizabeth: The Golden Age); and in the rare cases where the Pre-Frilly and Post-Frilly eras reign supreme, the films must be Best Picture honorees (Gladiator, The Aviator) and boast costumes that are at least as opulent as the Taj Mahal and Sharon Stone's affections for Dev Patel. Weird that Slumdog Millionaire didn't manage a nomination here, but that only makes this one of the easiest calls of the evening. Anyone who tells you otherwise doesn't know Oscar or their Prada from their Pucci.
Will Win: The Duchess
Should Win: The Duchess
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Sound Editing
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/19/2009 15:27:48 In: Oscars Comments: 0
When trying to figure out what will win the sound awards this year, it's probably best to ignore or at least downplay the two p's—precedent and precursors—and instead try to imagine what, exactly, Oscar voters likely remember they heard when they watched each film, especially when it comes to this category and its vestigial connection to what the Academy used to call "sound effects." To wit:
Iron Man: "Rattle rattle, thunder clatter, boom boom boom."
WALL-E: "Beep borp boop, beepity boppity boop, brap tap tooie. Put on your Sunday clothes there's lots of world out there. Eeee-va! Waaaa-lee! Eeee-va! Waaaa-lee!"
Wanted: "Sorry, let me move into the other room for a minute, dear. No, I didn't drop anything. The kids are watching my screener of Wanted in the other room."
The Dark Knight: "Operator surveillance, please give me Jesus (or a reasonably comparable martyr figure) on the line. And let him listen to all my phone conversations just like Bush did."
Slumdog Millionaire: "This is what it sounds like when doves collectively spunk you in the face with their hot-pink jizz."
In plain English, you could spend a lot of time agonizing over what seems a pretty even playing field, but this is one of those years where the din of everything else stands to be drowned out completely by the unstoppable white noise of a juggernaut.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E
When trying to figure out what will win the sound awards this year, it's probably best to ignore or at least downplay the two p's—precedent and precursors—and instead try to imagine what, exactly, Oscar voters likely remember they heard when they watched each film, especially when it comes to this category and its vestigial connection to what the Academy used to call "sound effects." To wit:
Iron Man: "Rattle rattle, thunder clatter, boom boom boom."
WALL-E: "Beep borp boop, beepity boppity boop, brap tap tooie. Put on your Sunday clothes there's lots of world out there. Eeee-va! Waaaa-lee! Eeee-va! Waaaa-lee!"
Wanted: "Sorry, let me move into the other room for a minute, dear. No, I didn't drop anything. The kids are watching my screener of Wanted in the other room."
The Dark Knight: "Operator surveillance, please give me Jesus (or a reasonably comparable martyr figure) on the line. And let him listen to all my phone conversations just like Bush did."
Slumdog Millionaire: "This is what it sounds like when doves collectively spunk you in the face with their hot-pink jizz."
In plain English, you could spend a lot of time agonizing over what seems a pretty even playing field, but this is one of those years where the din of everything else stands to be drowned out completely by the unstoppable white noise of a juggernaut.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Cinematography
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/18/2009 14:44:11 In: Oscars Comments: 3
Writing about what Eric calls the "most boringest" Oscar categories has become more boringer given the inevitability of a Slumdog Millionaire sweep on Sunday. So, why bring up the irony of Tom Stern finally snagging a nomination the same year the academy decided to keep Clint Eastwood out of the Best Picture race? Why consider the horrifying possibility of Roger Deakins winning an Oscar for a calculated awards-baiter such as The Reader and not for a Coen brothers flick? Why ponder if David Fincher's longtime lightning technician Claudio Miranda had to also tame his artistic vision to score an invite to the Oscars? Why contemplate how many more Chistopher Nolan films Wally Pfister will have to be nominated for before scoring a win here? Nope, we won't chew on any of those questions because, well, because you can't stop what's coming. Right?
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Writing about what Eric calls the "most boringest" Oscar categories has become more boringer given the inevitability of a Slumdog Millionaire sweep on Sunday. So, why bring up the irony of Tom Stern finally snagging a nomination the same year the academy decided to keep Clint Eastwood out of the Best Picture race? Why consider the horrifying possibility of Roger Deakins winning an Oscar for a calculated awards-baiter such as The Reader and not for a Coen brothers flick? Why ponder if David Fincher's longtime lightning technician Claudio Miranda had to also tame his artistic vision to score an invite to the Oscars? Why contemplate how many more Chistopher Nolan films Wally Pfister will have to be nominated for before scoring a win here? Nope, we won't chew on any of those questions because, well, because you can't stop what's coming. Right?
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Editing
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/17/2009 15:55:05 In: Oscars Comments: 0
The traditionalists view this as the "Best Picture-elect" category, and with four of the five contenders in that category in play here, it certainly looks like a done deal for what nearly every guild has now christened the only 2008 movie worth honoring. Slumdog Millionaire's suspense is pitched at about the same level as one ofRegis Philbin's Meredith Vieira's pregnant pauses—which is to say it's a comfortable tease, but probably only works on those who are in the movie's hot seat. Fortunately, everyone who votes on movie awards this year seems to be pretty well strapped into that seat, and adding insurance are Slumdog's breathless, M.I.A.-infused montages and the fact that it sends audiences out with a production number. The other Best Picture nominees haven't got a prayer, though Benjamin Button's methodical, unshowy pacing is as responsible for the movie's alien, out-of-time effect as anything, and also allows the VFX team's work to weave itself into the tapestry without too much fanfare. (Too bad it will probably lose the vote of anyone who had to get up and change their colostomy bag during the film's 47-hour running time.) Of the two 1970s candidates, Milk's editing is defter by far, and should at least win a few points for the times when it chooses not to cut away (like when Sylvester wishes Harvey Milk a very gay birthday). Frost/Nixon only brings game when it parallels the central interviews with the spectacle of their respective handlers spiking footballs or recoiling in horror, but it's no All the President's Men. (And how do you let "I Feel Love" just sit there on the soundtrack without so much as a single syncopated cut?) If anything's going to beat Slumdog, it's The Dark Knight, because critically-acclaimed actioneers have proven stealth candidates in recent years here. But a lot of Knight's action sequences are spatially confusing, even by Paul Greengrass's standards.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Milk
The traditionalists view this as the "Best Picture-elect" category, and with four of the five contenders in that category in play here, it certainly looks like a done deal for what nearly every guild has now christened the only 2008 movie worth honoring. Slumdog Millionaire's suspense is pitched at about the same level as one of
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Milk
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Documentary Short
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/16/2009 15:51:11 In: Oscars Comments: 3
One more sign of Slumdog Millionaire's appeal is the presence of two films in this category revolving around maladies affecting the lives of impoverished children in India. The stronger of the two films is Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant's elegantly shot The Final Inch, which focuses on a group of foot soldiers devoted to eradicating polio from the face of the earth. In India, a Good Samaritan reveals how Muslims are more likely to receive the vaccine she brings to impoverished regions of the country if she's wearing a bhurka, while in America a man cycles across Texas to raise polio awareness and a 70-year-old North Carolina woman wishes she could leave her iron long to do the same: As such, this is less an exposé of the disease's effects on the private lives of its victims than it is an inquiry into personal and global responsibility in preventing the spread of polio. Voting for the film will make academy members feel as if they're paying its message forward, but so will Smile Pinki. Thousands of children are born with cleft lips every year in India to largely poor and superstitious parents and Megan Mylan's film documents the concerted efforts of a group of social workers and medical professionals to give these children pro bono cosmetic surgery so they could live lives without shame. Even though you feel Sally Struthers could walk on screen at any moment and shed a tear, the documentary provides moving insight into the fears and insecurities of impoverished denizens of the third world. More interestingly structured is four-time Academy Award nominee Steven Okazaki's The Conscience of Nhem En, a loose portrait of the man who took photographs of the tens of thousands of citizens who passed through the Khmer Rouge's S21 processing center in Cambodia, but this one seems like an easy win for Smile Pinki, unless voters feel that a vote for the PBS-grade The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306, a series of reflections by the last living witness to the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., is a way of acknowledging how they helped realize MLK's dream by voting for our new president.
Will Win: Smile Pinki
Should Win: The Final Inch
One more sign of Slumdog Millionaire's appeal is the presence of two films in this category revolving around maladies affecting the lives of impoverished children in India. The stronger of the two films is Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant's elegantly shot The Final Inch, which focuses on a group of foot soldiers devoted to eradicating polio from the face of the earth. In India, a Good Samaritan reveals how Muslims are more likely to receive the vaccine she brings to impoverished regions of the country if she's wearing a bhurka, while in America a man cycles across Texas to raise polio awareness and a 70-year-old North Carolina woman wishes she could leave her iron long to do the same: As such, this is less an exposé of the disease's effects on the private lives of its victims than it is an inquiry into personal and global responsibility in preventing the spread of polio. Voting for the film will make academy members feel as if they're paying its message forward, but so will Smile Pinki. Thousands of children are born with cleft lips every year in India to largely poor and superstitious parents and Megan Mylan's film documents the concerted efforts of a group of social workers and medical professionals to give these children pro bono cosmetic surgery so they could live lives without shame. Even though you feel Sally Struthers could walk on screen at any moment and shed a tear, the documentary provides moving insight into the fears and insecurities of impoverished denizens of the third world. More interestingly structured is four-time Academy Award nominee Steven Okazaki's The Conscience of Nhem En, a loose portrait of the man who took photographs of the tens of thousands of citizens who passed through the Khmer Rouge's S21 processing center in Cambodia, but this one seems like an easy win for Smile Pinki, unless voters feel that a vote for the PBS-grade The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306, a series of reflections by the last living witness to the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., is a way of acknowledging how they helped realize MLK's dream by voting for our new president.
Will Win: Smile Pinki
Should Win: The Final Inch
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Art Direction
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/15/2009 14:03:40 In: Oscars Comments: 0
Let's not make this category any more difficult than it has to be. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has this one in the bag, not because it's the only Best Picture contender in the running, and not because it even has the best art direction on display. Oscar favors periods in both this and costume design, and while The Duchess and Changeling both contain the opulent flourishes and seamlessly accurate locations, respectively, from other eras that would normally take the prize here, the former missed out on a nomination by the Art Directors Guild, while the craftsmanship of the latter may simply be too subtle and lived-in to register with academy members. (That will almost certainly be the case with Revolutionary Road's oppressively mundane suburban interiors; they serve their purpose and drive Kate Winslet justifiably bonkers, but Oscar voters often opt for sets that scream "Wish you were here!") Lord knows why the academy decided to nominate the Batman franchise's sets for the first time since the Tim Burton era; no other film in the series has more heavily leaned on existing (i.e. Chicagoan) urban decay. (It's a wonder Slumdog Millionaire didn't sneak in here in its stead.) So Benjamin Button has this one almost by default, but it would've probably coasted to a win in any number of years. There's only one thing that can trump a period piece, and that's a multi-period piece.
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Changeling
Let's not make this category any more difficult than it has to be. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has this one in the bag, not because it's the only Best Picture contender in the running, and not because it even has the best art direction on display. Oscar favors periods in both this and costume design, and while The Duchess and Changeling both contain the opulent flourishes and seamlessly accurate locations, respectively, from other eras that would normally take the prize here, the former missed out on a nomination by the Art Directors Guild, while the craftsmanship of the latter may simply be too subtle and lived-in to register with academy members. (That will almost certainly be the case with Revolutionary Road's oppressively mundane suburban interiors; they serve their purpose and drive Kate Winslet justifiably bonkers, but Oscar voters often opt for sets that scream "Wish you were here!") Lord knows why the academy decided to nominate the Batman franchise's sets for the first time since the Tim Burton era; no other film in the series has more heavily leaned on existing (i.e. Chicagoan) urban decay. (It's a wonder Slumdog Millionaire didn't sneak in here in its stead.) So Benjamin Button has this one almost by default, but it would've probably coasted to a win in any number of years. There's only one thing that can trump a period piece, and that's a multi-period piece.
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Changeling
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Actor
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/14/2009 16:25:10 In: Oscars Comments: 3
In this corner, Mickey Rourke: winner of countless critics awards for his performance in The Wrestler, who has apparently pissed off more people than Perez Hilton; who called Perez Hilton a faggot and no one gave a shit, whose Hollywood story mirrors that of his character, who won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA and who doesn't have an Oscar to his name and may never be nominated for another one again, whose fans are fierce but respectful of the other guy's posse. And in this corner, Sean Penn: winner of countless critics awards for his performance in Milk, who has ostensibly pissed off more people than Fidel Castro, who said that Fidel Castro was good for Cuba and no one gave a shit, who has come a long way from being married to Madonna and being scared of the dick to swapping saliva with James Franco the same year Prop 8 passed in Oscar's home state of California, who won the SAG and the BFCA, whose fans are fierce but respectful of the other guy's posse. Flip a coin or follow our logic: Yes, you empathize more with Rourke's character, but we're of the opinion that this undervalued actor's "story" is being talked up more than his actual performance. That's not to say voters aren't being swayed by that story, but does Hollywood as a whole really feel it owes Rourke anything? We know Penn already has an Oscar, which definitely matters in a year where an acting race is this close, but whatever votes Penn will lose because of this will be countered by any ones he'll inevitably get from those guilt-tripped into thinking by the shrill Brokeback Mountain cult that a vote for Crash a few years ago was one against gay rights. It's a nail-biter all right, but we have to give this one to the veteran whose completely transformative performance enlivens the milquetoastiness of a movie that's creepily in sync with our volatile contemporary political moment.
Will Win: Sean Penn for Milk
Should Win: Sean Penn for Milk
In this corner, Mickey Rourke: winner of countless critics awards for his performance in The Wrestler, who has apparently pissed off more people than Perez Hilton; who called Perez Hilton a faggot and no one gave a shit, whose Hollywood story mirrors that of his character, who won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA and who doesn't have an Oscar to his name and may never be nominated for another one again, whose fans are fierce but respectful of the other guy's posse. And in this corner, Sean Penn: winner of countless critics awards for his performance in Milk, who has ostensibly pissed off more people than Fidel Castro, who said that Fidel Castro was good for Cuba and no one gave a shit, who has come a long way from being married to Madonna and being scared of the dick to swapping saliva with James Franco the same year Prop 8 passed in Oscar's home state of California, who won the SAG and the BFCA, whose fans are fierce but respectful of the other guy's posse. Flip a coin or follow our logic: Yes, you empathize more with Rourke's character, but we're of the opinion that this undervalued actor's "story" is being talked up more than his actual performance. That's not to say voters aren't being swayed by that story, but does Hollywood as a whole really feel it owes Rourke anything? We know Penn already has an Oscar, which definitely matters in a year where an acting race is this close, but whatever votes Penn will lose because of this will be countered by any ones he'll inevitably get from those guilt-tripped into thinking by the shrill Brokeback Mountain cult that a vote for Crash a few years ago was one against gay rights. It's a nail-biter all right, but we have to give this one to the veteran whose completely transformative performance enlivens the milquetoastiness of a movie that's creepily in sync with our volatile contemporary political moment.
Will Win: Sean Penn for Milk
Should Win: Sean Penn for Milk
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Director
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/13/2009 14:11:48 In: Oscars Comments: 2
Dear AMPAS directors' branch, we're done now. In years past, we've praised you for your odd-man-out nominations, the ones that paid tribute to tomorrow's masterpieces that were clearly never going to snag nominations in Best Picture (Mulholland Drive, Talk to Her, Vera Drake). We were disappointed in you in 2005, when you snubbed David Cronenberg, Terrence Malick, and Woody Allen in favor of Bennett Miller and Paul Haggis, but we gave you a simple demerit and forgot about the indiscretion as, in the following years, you gave Martin Scorsese and the Coens the chance to accept their long overdue career achievement-in-disguise prizes. That goodwill is gone now and we're through making excuses for what is fast becoming the most disappointing branch in the entire Academy. You've rewarded a particularly unrewarding Best Picture lineup with a Best Director slate that mirrors the academy's shame in its every elephantine sag. You've shown that you're only a fan of vital auteurs when they reign in and tame everything about themselves that excites their fans (Fincher, Van Sant). You've capriciously decided to end your love affair with all things Clint at the precise moment when he makes a zeitgeist-tapping blockbuster. Jesus fucking Christ, you've now nominated Stephen Daldry for every goddamned film he's ever directed! We're left with no choice now but to remember the bad times. 2001 is no longer the year you nominated David Lynch and Robert Altman but rather the year you didn't snub Ron Howard, opening the door for his easy win. 2007 is no longer the year you orchestrated a face-off between the Coens and Paul Thomas Anderson but instead the year you declared Jason Reitman cinema's great white hope. Face it, directors, you are hacks bent on rewarding hackery, as incapable of venerating your reputation against that of the academy-at-large as the academy-at-large was incapable of voting a competitive Oscar into Alfred Hitchcock's meathooks. To the extent that we give a watery shit, the academy ought to continue riding the Slumdog Millionaire bandwagon here, just as they rode the Brokeback Mountain bandwagon the last time the Picture/Director slates matched exactly. Meanwhile, directors' branch, I think you better call on Tyrone.
Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dear AMPAS directors' branch, we're done now. In years past, we've praised you for your odd-man-out nominations, the ones that paid tribute to tomorrow's masterpieces that were clearly never going to snag nominations in Best Picture (Mulholland Drive, Talk to Her, Vera Drake). We were disappointed in you in 2005, when you snubbed David Cronenberg, Terrence Malick, and Woody Allen in favor of Bennett Miller and Paul Haggis, but we gave you a simple demerit and forgot about the indiscretion as, in the following years, you gave Martin Scorsese and the Coens the chance to accept their long overdue career achievement-in-disguise prizes. That goodwill is gone now and we're through making excuses for what is fast becoming the most disappointing branch in the entire Academy. You've rewarded a particularly unrewarding Best Picture lineup with a Best Director slate that mirrors the academy's shame in its every elephantine sag. You've shown that you're only a fan of vital auteurs when they reign in and tame everything about themselves that excites their fans (Fincher, Van Sant). You've capriciously decided to end your love affair with all things Clint at the precise moment when he makes a zeitgeist-tapping blockbuster. Jesus fucking Christ, you've now nominated Stephen Daldry for every goddamned film he's ever directed! We're left with no choice now but to remember the bad times. 2001 is no longer the year you nominated David Lynch and Robert Altman but rather the year you didn't snub Ron Howard, opening the door for his easy win. 2007 is no longer the year you orchestrated a face-off between the Coens and Paul Thomas Anderson but instead the year you declared Jason Reitman cinema's great white hope. Face it, directors, you are hacks bent on rewarding hackery, as incapable of venerating your reputation against that of the academy-at-large as the academy-at-large was incapable of voting a competitive Oscar into Alfred Hitchcock's meathooks. To the extent that we give a watery shit, the academy ought to continue riding the Slumdog Millionaire bandwagon here, just as they rode the Brokeback Mountain bandwagon the last time the Picture/Director slates matched exactly. Meanwhile, directors' branch, I think you better call on Tyrone.
Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Song
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/12/2009 14:18:33 In: Oscars Comments: 0
We aren't buying this theory that WALL-E will benefit from a vote split here because (a) the two Slumdog Millionaire songs don't suck, unlike that unholy trifecta from Dreamgirls two years ago (or the Enchanted ones from last year); (b) the Grammy-winning WALL-E tune sounds as if it was composed by Randy Newman; and (c) the academy doesn't really care about correcting epic-length losing streaks in the tech categories (sorry Thomas Newman). We're not even sure that "Down to Earth" has more support than "O Saya," because we know how many more times the latter has been downloaded and listened to, and no praise we've read for "Down to Earth" has equaled that of YouTube poster amoebchen's fondness for "O Saya": "Makes me want to dance, laugh, dream and cry at the same time!!!" For better capturing the essence of Slumdog Millionaire, or because I can't listen to "Jai Ho" without thinking of it as a Bollywood remix of Despina Vandi's "Gia," my personal vote goes to "O Saya," but I'm okay with it losing as long as M.I.A.'s water doesn't break for another two weeks. And though it's true that "Jai Ho" has yet to provoke homages from third-world prisons in its honor, it's still the only song here that can be reasonably called a phenomenon—the song that plays during Slumdog Millionaire's ecstatic closing credits, inviting the audience's applause before sending them on their giddy way.
Will Win: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: "O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire
We aren't buying this theory that WALL-E will benefit from a vote split here because (a) the two Slumdog Millionaire songs don't suck, unlike that unholy trifecta from Dreamgirls two years ago (or the Enchanted ones from last year); (b) the Grammy-winning WALL-E tune sounds as if it was composed by Randy Newman; and (c) the academy doesn't really care about correcting epic-length losing streaks in the tech categories (sorry Thomas Newman). We're not even sure that "Down to Earth" has more support than "O Saya," because we know how many more times the latter has been downloaded and listened to, and no praise we've read for "Down to Earth" has equaled that of YouTube poster amoebchen's fondness for "O Saya": "Makes me want to dance, laugh, dream and cry at the same time!!!" For better capturing the essence of Slumdog Millionaire, or because I can't listen to "Jai Ho" without thinking of it as a Bollywood remix of Despina Vandi's "Gia," my personal vote goes to "O Saya," but I'm okay with it losing as long as M.I.A.'s water doesn't break for another two weeks. And though it's true that "Jai Ho" has yet to provoke homages from third-world prisons in its honor, it's still the only song here that can be reasonably called a phenomenon—the song that plays during Slumdog Millionaire's ecstatic closing credits, inviting the audience's applause before sending them on their giddy way.
Will Win: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: "O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Supporting Actress
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/11/2009 13:48:09 In: Oscars Comments: 5
Taking Kate Winslet out of the equation seemed to turn this category into any Academy Award fan's dream scenario: an Oscar ripe for the taking in a veritable five-way contest. While it's true that this is the only one of this year's four acting categories where you can conjure up a pretty realistic scenario for any of the nominees being declared the winner, and we were all deprived a truly representational trial heat for this category, it's myopic to act like there weren't a couple clear favorites before Winslet's departure that are now, consequently, favorites once again. Back in late December, Penelope Cruz was making a pretty unbroken sprint through the most important critics' prizes, winning citations from the National Board of Review, the New York Film Critics Circle, and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. Granted, and as Sally Hawkins could tell you, this isn't one of those years wherein critical attention seems to be any sort of dealmaker. But in a tight race, critics' endorsements could be enough to buttress the role's Oscar-friendly cultural minstrelsy and erection-friendly lesbianics to an easy win. If any of the other four nominees can surmount Cruz's early lead, it will be Viola Davis, if for no other reason than the desire to throw an award to one of Doubt's four Oscar-nominated performances. Some carp that the role is too brief to win here, especially given Amy Adams, in a much more durationally substantial role, is competition. But if there's a category where it's totally okay to show up for a single scene and knock it out of the park (Beatrice Straight, Judi Dench), this is it. Adams could conceivably win on the "Ooh, she's a hottie" ticket if Cruz and Marisa Tomei's veteran stripper are too exotic for the Academy's demonstrable white-bread crotches. But Adams's character spends the entire movie attempting to defuse situations and explain away the entire plot's inciting incident. Oscar prefers dur-ah-ma, and next to Davis's epic, tearful stare-down against La Streep, Adams's "can't we all just get along" blubbering comes off as an irritating, protracted whine. Hell, for that matter, Cruz's fiery stereotype refused to cry unless she could do it in Spanish. And so we see the Academy, forced to reboot in Winslet's absence, reverting to the early favorite here.
Will Win: Penelope Cruz for Vicki Cristina Barcelona
Should Win: Viola Davis for Doubt
Taking Kate Winslet out of the equation seemed to turn this category into any Academy Award fan's dream scenario: an Oscar ripe for the taking in a veritable five-way contest. While it's true that this is the only one of this year's four acting categories where you can conjure up a pretty realistic scenario for any of the nominees being declared the winner, and we were all deprived a truly representational trial heat for this category, it's myopic to act like there weren't a couple clear favorites before Winslet's departure that are now, consequently, favorites once again. Back in late December, Penelope Cruz was making a pretty unbroken sprint through the most important critics' prizes, winning citations from the National Board of Review, the New York Film Critics Circle, and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. Granted, and as Sally Hawkins could tell you, this isn't one of those years wherein critical attention seems to be any sort of dealmaker. But in a tight race, critics' endorsements could be enough to buttress the role's Oscar-friendly cultural minstrelsy and erection-friendly lesbianics to an easy win. If any of the other four nominees can surmount Cruz's early lead, it will be Viola Davis, if for no other reason than the desire to throw an award to one of Doubt's four Oscar-nominated performances. Some carp that the role is too brief to win here, especially given Amy Adams, in a much more durationally substantial role, is competition. But if there's a category where it's totally okay to show up for a single scene and knock it out of the park (Beatrice Straight, Judi Dench), this is it. Adams could conceivably win on the "Ooh, she's a hottie" ticket if Cruz and Marisa Tomei's veteran stripper are too exotic for the Academy's demonstrable white-bread crotches. But Adams's character spends the entire movie attempting to defuse situations and explain away the entire plot's inciting incident. Oscar prefers dur-ah-ma, and next to Davis's epic, tearful stare-down against La Streep, Adams's "can't we all just get along" blubbering comes off as an irritating, protracted whine. Hell, for that matter, Cruz's fiery stereotype refused to cry unless she could do it in Spanish. And so we see the Academy, forced to reboot in Winslet's absence, reverting to the early favorite here.
Will Win: Penelope Cruz for Vicki Cristina Barcelona
Should Win: Viola Davis for Doubt
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Original Screenplay
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/10/2009 13:31:23 In: Oscars Comments: 3
For writing that hinges on indulgent exposition, leaden metaphor, painful grade-school symbolism, and cliché characterization, Courtney Hunt is now an Oscar nominee thanks to the same AMPAS voters who don't recoil into the fetal position at the sound of actors reading aloud from a Paul Haggis screenplay. That's a pretty significant bloc of the academy, but we're guessing there's a considerable overlap of fans between Frozen River and the smarmy In Bruges, which was quickly forgotten after opening in early February but has built a sizeable cult following since then and is now riding high off Golden Globe and BAFTA fumes. Of course, it's rare for a screenplay to win here without also being nominated for Best Picture, so don't bet on In Bruges taking this one unless you also think six-time Oscar nominee Mike Leigh will be given a chance to wax cynically—and justifiably so—about his improvisational style of writing and Happy-Go-Lucky's egregious snub in the Best Actress category. Dustin Lance Black, the openly gay ex-Mormon who writes for HBO's Big Love, should have had this one in the bag, especially after his Writers Guild of America victory, but Black didn't have to contend with WALL-E for that award. Critically and financially, WALL-E benefits from being the most successful film in this category, but we're of the opinion that the same blue-haired types who confuse Most Editing for Best Editing will feel somewhat uneasy—and mistakenly so—about voting for a film that's written in chirps and beeps for a significant portion of its running time, even if they do prefer WALL-E to Milk at the end of the day.
Will Win: Milk
Should Win: Happy-Go-Lucky
For writing that hinges on indulgent exposition, leaden metaphor, painful grade-school symbolism, and cliché characterization, Courtney Hunt is now an Oscar nominee thanks to the same AMPAS voters who don't recoil into the fetal position at the sound of actors reading aloud from a Paul Haggis screenplay. That's a pretty significant bloc of the academy, but we're guessing there's a considerable overlap of fans between Frozen River and the smarmy In Bruges, which was quickly forgotten after opening in early February but has built a sizeable cult following since then and is now riding high off Golden Globe and BAFTA fumes. Of course, it's rare for a screenplay to win here without also being nominated for Best Picture, so don't bet on In Bruges taking this one unless you also think six-time Oscar nominee Mike Leigh will be given a chance to wax cynically—and justifiably so—about his improvisational style of writing and Happy-Go-Lucky's egregious snub in the Best Actress category. Dustin Lance Black, the openly gay ex-Mormon who writes for HBO's Big Love, should have had this one in the bag, especially after his Writers Guild of America victory, but Black didn't have to contend with WALL-E for that award. Critically and financially, WALL-E benefits from being the most successful film in this category, but we're of the opinion that the same blue-haired types who confuse Most Editing for Best Editing will feel somewhat uneasy—and mistakenly so—about voting for a film that's written in chirps and beeps for a significant portion of its running time, even if they do prefer WALL-E to Milk at the end of the day.
Will Win: Milk
Should Win: Happy-Go-Lucky
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Adapted Screenplay
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/09/2009 14:49:49 In: Oscars Comments: 0
Are screenplays of acclaimed stage plays adapted by the authors of the original works cursed when it comes to Oscars? Ernest "The Loons" Thompson can poop on that theory, but Tennessee Williams, Arthur Miller, Neil Simon, and Harold Pinter can all say, "Yes, unquestionably." So will Peter Morgan and John Patrick Shanley soon enough, so let's move on to the three-way battle of the flashbacks. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button uses the flashback structure in ways both elegant (gently suggesting Benjamin's chronological affliction) and stilted (the late-inning revelation of Julia Ormand's character's true identity, long-since presaged by most viewers), but the most damning flashback in terms of Oscar viability is the nagging dj vu that we've seen an extraordinary American life detailed like this somewhere before, and from the pen of Eric Roth at that. The literacy I referenced in the nominations prediction blog indeed helped secure The Reader a nomination in this category, but its surprise nominations in a number of other categories suggest it wasn't much of an uphill battle for David Hare. And even we have to admit that his ability to weave back and forth between multiple time periods demonstrates something resembling narrative momentum (as opposed to the maladroit gynecological synchronicity he and Daldry attempted with The Hours), but it also hinges on a mid-film revelation that, if you don't accept it, turns the entire movie into an endless, pompous slog toward bitter denouement. Of course, the movie's Best Picture nomination means just as many bought it as a tragic romance, which also means Slumdog Millionaire isn't quite the invincible (sorry, "underdog") favorite here as it is in a bunch of other categories despite its recent WGA win. That said, Simon Beaufoy's screenplay is playful with its flashbacks, and cannily allows the movie to climax in the here and now. It seems like a close one, but as Slumdog's final title card says: "It is written."
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Are screenplays of acclaimed stage plays adapted by the authors of the original works cursed when it comes to Oscars? Ernest "The Loons" Thompson can poop on that theory, but Tennessee Williams, Arthur Miller, Neil Simon, and Harold Pinter can all say, "Yes, unquestionably." So will Peter Morgan and John Patrick Shanley soon enough, so let's move on to the three-way battle of the flashbacks. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button uses the flashback structure in ways both elegant (gently suggesting Benjamin's chronological affliction) and stilted (the late-inning revelation of Julia Ormand's character's true identity, long-since presaged by most viewers), but the most damning flashback in terms of Oscar viability is the nagging dj vu that we've seen an extraordinary American life detailed like this somewhere before, and from the pen of Eric Roth at that. The literacy I referenced in the nominations prediction blog indeed helped secure The Reader a nomination in this category, but its surprise nominations in a number of other categories suggest it wasn't much of an uphill battle for David Hare. And even we have to admit that his ability to weave back and forth between multiple time periods demonstrates something resembling narrative momentum (as opposed to the maladroit gynecological synchronicity he and Daldry attempted with The Hours), but it also hinges on a mid-film revelation that, if you don't accept it, turns the entire movie into an endless, pompous slog toward bitter denouement. Of course, the movie's Best Picture nomination means just as many bought it as a tragic romance, which also means Slumdog Millionaire isn't quite the invincible (sorry, "underdog") favorite here as it is in a bunch of other categories despite its recent WGA win. That said, Simon Beaufoy's screenplay is playful with its flashbacks, and cannily allows the movie to climax in the here and now. It seems like a close one, but as Slumdog's final title card says: "It is written."
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions Documentary
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/08/2009 14:06:36 In: Oscars Comments: 0
In case you weren't paying attention, given Sally Hawkins's egregious snub and all, Werner Herzog is now an Oscar nominee—and not a moment too soon. Now it remains to be seen if an adventurous cameramen will pick out the maverick director out of the Oscar crowd and lock on to the man's eternally and blissfully blazed face—assuming, that is, Herzog even shows up. We can't imagine Herzog expects to win this one, even if he probably has the vote of every academy member who counts Aguirre: Wrath of God as one of their favorite movies. On paper, the excellent Katrina doc Trouble the Water screams a winner, but this enraged examination of social injustice is possibly headier than even Encounters at the End of the World. Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath's acclaimed The Betrayal and Scott Hamilton Kennedy's The Garden bring to mind past winners in this category, but this one seems like a knockout punch for Man on Wire, especially with Standard Operating Procedure out of the running. As big a crowd-pleaser as Slumdog Millionaire, Man on Wire has won almost as many awards since the start of the Oscar season, connecting with people first as a thrilling exaltation of high-wire artiste Philippe Petit's chutzpah, then as a memorial to the similarly superhuman daring responsible for building the stage the man walked across on the morning of August 7th, 1974.
Will Win: Man on Wire
Should Win: Encounters at the End of the World
In case you weren't paying attention, given Sally Hawkins's egregious snub and all, Werner Herzog is now an Oscar nominee—and not a moment too soon. Now it remains to be seen if an adventurous cameramen will pick out the maverick director out of the Oscar crowd and lock on to the man's eternally and blissfully blazed face—assuming, that is, Herzog even shows up. We can't imagine Herzog expects to win this one, even if he probably has the vote of every academy member who counts Aguirre: Wrath of God as one of their favorite movies. On paper, the excellent Katrina doc Trouble the Water screams a winner, but this enraged examination of social injustice is possibly headier than even Encounters at the End of the World. Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath's acclaimed The Betrayal and Scott Hamilton Kennedy's The Garden bring to mind past winners in this category, but this one seems like a knockout punch for Man on Wire, especially with Standard Operating Procedure out of the running. As big a crowd-pleaser as Slumdog Millionaire, Man on Wire has won almost as many awards since the start of the Oscar season, connecting with people first as a thrilling exaltation of high-wire artiste Philippe Petit's chutzpah, then as a memorial to the similarly superhuman daring responsible for building the stage the man walked across on the morning of August 7th, 1974.
Will Win: Man on Wire
Should Win: Encounters at the End of the World
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Actress
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/07/2009 15:39:55 In: Oscars Comments: 8
To quote Homer Simpson, it seems everything is all wrapped up in a neat little package. By ignoring Weinstein's attempt to gerrymander Kate Winslet into two categories, Oscar's unexpectedly independent-minded decision to place her in the lead category for The Reader has cleared up any and all loose ends in this particular storyline. The academy gets to award the long overdue actress for her role in a movie that's clearly more to their liking than Revolutionary Road, especially given the nominated role allows her to execute (no pun intended) a number of the tricks Oscar loves to see from actresses (old-age makeup, funny accent, Holocaust drama, pert young breasts). Bonus: they can avoid having to deal with category fraud, which slotting Winslet's Reader performance as supporting clearly would've been. I suppose it would've been a better story to give Winslet the award for a role in which she was directed by her husband Sam Mendes instead of the one whose most endearing production backstory is how Stephen Daldry and his crew were strongarmed into wrapping the damned thing up specifically for the purpose of qualifying it for Oscars. But that's collateral damage. Ditto the fact that her win here has the unfortunate effect of allowing the Academy to walk right into Ricky Gervais and Winslet's satirical trap on Extras. Winslet might be portraying a nun in that fictional Oscar bid on Gervais's series, and La Streep is undoubtedly her closest competition, but her "interesting" decision to portray Doubt's Sister Beaver for comedy will probably blow out a few too many voters' lights. Winslet's not old enough yet to lose many votes to Anne Hathaway from the Academy demographic that routinely votes for female actors they'd like to sit on their laps. Finally, there are no cripple roles in this spread. Like Winslet said, besides the Holocaust, "you are guaranteed an Oscar if you play a mental." With no bona fide mentals in the running here (Hathaway's self-destruction also extends to destroying others, so no sympathy points there), that pretty well clears the path for Winslet to break her losing streak for what's pretty obviously her worst nominated performance. Still, cue up the cult of Winslet's chorus of Flanders-like screams.
Will Win: Kate Winslet for The Reader
Should Win: Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
To quote Homer Simpson, it seems everything is all wrapped up in a neat little package. By ignoring Weinstein's attempt to gerrymander Kate Winslet into two categories, Oscar's unexpectedly independent-minded decision to place her in the lead category for The Reader has cleared up any and all loose ends in this particular storyline. The academy gets to award the long overdue actress for her role in a movie that's clearly more to their liking than Revolutionary Road, especially given the nominated role allows her to execute (no pun intended) a number of the tricks Oscar loves to see from actresses (old-age makeup, funny accent, Holocaust drama, pert young breasts). Bonus: they can avoid having to deal with category fraud, which slotting Winslet's Reader performance as supporting clearly would've been. I suppose it would've been a better story to give Winslet the award for a role in which she was directed by her husband Sam Mendes instead of the one whose most endearing production backstory is how Stephen Daldry and his crew were strongarmed into wrapping the damned thing up specifically for the purpose of qualifying it for Oscars. But that's collateral damage. Ditto the fact that her win here has the unfortunate effect of allowing the Academy to walk right into Ricky Gervais and Winslet's satirical trap on Extras. Winslet might be portraying a nun in that fictional Oscar bid on Gervais's series, and La Streep is undoubtedly her closest competition, but her "interesting" decision to portray Doubt's Sister Beaver for comedy will probably blow out a few too many voters' lights. Winslet's not old enough yet to lose many votes to Anne Hathaway from the Academy demographic that routinely votes for female actors they'd like to sit on their laps. Finally, there are no cripple roles in this spread. Like Winslet said, besides the Holocaust, "you are guaranteed an Oscar if you play a mental." With no bona fide mentals in the running here (Hathaway's self-destruction also extends to destroying others, so no sympathy points there), that pretty well clears the path for Winslet to break her losing streak for what's pretty obviously her worst nominated performance. Still, cue up the cult of Winslet's chorus of Flanders-like screams.
Will Win: Kate Winslet for The Reader
Should Win: Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Visual Effects
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/06/2009 14:35:53 In: Oscars Comments: 0
No fuzzy, talking animals can possibly and unexpectedly tip this year's Visual Effects contest like they recently did for The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe and The Golden Compass, but at least we do have a grizzly in the form of Brad Pitt's computer-enhanced young codger. There are, of course, a lot more qualities stacked in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button team's favor: It's actually a fully-stocked buffet of CGI, process shots, trick photography, and computerized Botox. (Pitt wasn't the only one who spent large chunks of screen time looking like his younger self, and we already know just how much the Academy loves their Cate Blanchett.) If nothing else, think of all the voters who chuckled every goddamned time that drooling raisin flashed back to one of the seven times he'd been hit by lightning. The breadth of VFX content in the film (even if some effects soar while otherslike Pitt circa 1991just creep us out) should easily trump its competition, unless voters choose to fixate on a single, spectacularly-executed effect, in which case Harvey Dent's ruined face may give The Dark Knight a leg up on Pitt's slowly fixed one.
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
No fuzzy, talking animals can possibly and unexpectedly tip this year's Visual Effects contest like they recently did for The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe and The Golden Compass, but at least we do have a grizzly in the form of Brad Pitt's computer-enhanced young codger. There are, of course, a lot more qualities stacked in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button team's favor: It's actually a fully-stocked buffet of CGI, process shots, trick photography, and computerized Botox. (Pitt wasn't the only one who spent large chunks of screen time looking like his younger self, and we already know just how much the Academy loves their Cate Blanchett.) If nothing else, think of all the voters who chuckled every goddamned time that drooling raisin flashed back to one of the seven times he'd been hit by lightning. The breadth of VFX content in the film (even if some effects soar while otherslike Pitt circa 1991just creep us out) should easily trump its competition, unless voters choose to fixate on a single, spectacularly-executed effect, in which case Harvey Dent's ruined face may give The Dark Knight a leg up on Pitt's slowly fixed one.
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Foreign Language
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/05/2009 14:41:02 In: Oscars Comments: 3
After years of controversy, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences finally elects an executive committee to give a second chance to three foreign-language films snubbed during this category's first round of voting. By most accounts, this decision to police the regular nominating committee, Academy Members for the Perpetual Reward of Holocaust Pictures, has yielded an unusually strong batch of contenders, which include two Cannes prizewinners and the latest from the director of The Last Exit to Brooklyn. Now the question remains if the Academy will enact similar quality-control measures in other categoriesso, you know, a travesty like the one that befell Sally Hawkins this year will never happen again. But I digress. This year my blindspots are Uli Edel's The Baader Meinhof Complex and Yojiro Takita's Departures. The former, about the roots of the Red Army Faction terrorist group, sounds like a more youthful and explosive relation of Germany's last winner in this category, The Lives of Others, but Departures may have a leg up on it if Variety, that bastion of film-biz-y shorthand criticism, is to be believed: "Fascinating glimpses into a unique profession trump the pic's emotional manipulation and substantial length, suggesting that its top prize in Montreal could lead to fest action and, following judicious postmortem editing, selected arthouse engagements." Revanche, Janus's first theatrical release of a new film in decades, will be released on video by the Criterion Collection and may be the strongest contender here. The story of lives intersecting in a rural Austrian town after an unfortunate accident, this ninth feature from Austrian director Gtz Spielmann threatens to go down the low-road of a guttersnipping Ulrich Seidl production until it evolves into a morally disquieting and visually prismatic and resplendent look at grief, boasting the most chilling sound design you'll hear outside a torture porn. But the last thing academy members probably want to think about is getting sliced to bits by a woodcutter, so the race is probably between The Class and Waltz with Bashir. The latter won the Golden Globe and obviously has its fans, but naysayers have also called out its redundancy and borderline incomprehensibility, though it may ultimately lose because voters might feel it should have been nominated in either the animated or documentary feature categories. Laurent Cantet's The Class, also being released by Sony Pictures Classics, has received a less thoughtful theatrical run, which is surprising given the film's buzz following its victory at Cannes, but the temperament of the film, which documents in reality-TV fashion the struggles of a teacher to tame his immigrant-city students, seems very much in sync with that of the academy's. In short: If Armond White thinks it's racist, it must be a winner.
Will Win: The Class
Should Win: Revanche
After years of controversy, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences finally elects an executive committee to give a second chance to three foreign-language films snubbed during this category's first round of voting. By most accounts, this decision to police the regular nominating committee, Academy Members for the Perpetual Reward of Holocaust Pictures, has yielded an unusually strong batch of contenders, which include two Cannes prizewinners and the latest from the director of The Last Exit to Brooklyn. Now the question remains if the Academy will enact similar quality-control measures in other categoriesso, you know, a travesty like the one that befell Sally Hawkins this year will never happen again. But I digress. This year my blindspots are Uli Edel's The Baader Meinhof Complex and Yojiro Takita's Departures. The former, about the roots of the Red Army Faction terrorist group, sounds like a more youthful and explosive relation of Germany's last winner in this category, The Lives of Others, but Departures may have a leg up on it if Variety, that bastion of film-biz-y shorthand criticism, is to be believed: "Fascinating glimpses into a unique profession trump the pic's emotional manipulation and substantial length, suggesting that its top prize in Montreal could lead to fest action and, following judicious postmortem editing, selected arthouse engagements." Revanche, Janus's first theatrical release of a new film in decades, will be released on video by the Criterion Collection and may be the strongest contender here. The story of lives intersecting in a rural Austrian town after an unfortunate accident, this ninth feature from Austrian director Gtz Spielmann threatens to go down the low-road of a guttersnipping Ulrich Seidl production until it evolves into a morally disquieting and visually prismatic and resplendent look at grief, boasting the most chilling sound design you'll hear outside a torture porn. But the last thing academy members probably want to think about is getting sliced to bits by a woodcutter, so the race is probably between The Class and Waltz with Bashir. The latter won the Golden Globe and obviously has its fans, but naysayers have also called out its redundancy and borderline incomprehensibility, though it may ultimately lose because voters might feel it should have been nominated in either the animated or documentary feature categories. Laurent Cantet's The Class, also being released by Sony Pictures Classics, has received a less thoughtful theatrical run, which is surprising given the film's buzz following its victory at Cannes, but the temperament of the film, which documents in reality-TV fashion the struggles of a teacher to tame his immigrant-city students, seems very much in sync with that of the academy's. In short: If Armond White thinks it's racist, it must be a winner.
Will Win: The Class
Should Win: Revanche
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Animated Feature
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/04/2009 14:12:27 In: Oscars Comments: 1
Annie, are you okay? The Annie Awards, which are handed out by animators to animators, gave what by almost any measure is the most highly-regarded film of the year (animated or otherwise) the cold shoulder, instead showering the cute-but-no-cigar Kung-Fu Panda with a record-setting haul. Sorta makes you wonder whether animators might be a tad tired of hearing the standard mantra people tend to repeat whenever a new Pixar movie is released: "It's more than just a cartoon." That, or they really are just a bunch of furries that have lucked into a harmonious vocation. I've heard a few people explain WALL-E's Annie shutout is testament to animators' affinity for traditional cartoon-character renderings, that it's far more difficult for animators to get excited about what registers as cinematic to your average layman film-fan. Thus, they can naturally be expected to endorse Panda's motley selection from the animal kingdom over WALL-E's movie-movie pleasures (WALL-E dipping his metal claw into a streak of stardust). Never mind. Oscar voters are strictly fans when it comes to this category, and with Waltz with Bashir and its tempting political pull out of the running in favor of the potentially vote-splitting traditional character animation of Bolt, WALL-E won't be going home empty-clawed here.
Will Win: WALL-E
Should Win: WALL-E
Annie, are you okay? The Annie Awards, which are handed out by animators to animators, gave what by almost any measure is the most highly-regarded film of the year (animated or otherwise) the cold shoulder, instead showering the cute-but-no-cigar Kung-Fu Panda with a record-setting haul. Sorta makes you wonder whether animators might be a tad tired of hearing the standard mantra people tend to repeat whenever a new Pixar movie is released: "It's more than just a cartoon." That, or they really are just a bunch of furries that have lucked into a harmonious vocation. I've heard a few people explain WALL-E's Annie shutout is testament to animators' affinity for traditional cartoon-character renderings, that it's far more difficult for animators to get excited about what registers as cinematic to your average layman film-fan. Thus, they can naturally be expected to endorse Panda's motley selection from the animal kingdom over WALL-E's movie-movie pleasures (WALL-E dipping his metal claw into a streak of stardust). Never mind. Oscar voters are strictly fans when it comes to this category, and with Waltz with Bashir and its tempting political pull out of the running in favor of the potentially vote-splitting traditional character animation of Bolt, WALL-E won't be going home empty-clawed here.
Will Win: WALL-E
Should Win: WALL-E
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Supporting Actor
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/03/2009 14:31:07 In: Oscars Comments: 4
Even if people wanted to vote for a critics darling like Josh Brolin (Milk) in this category, to do so might seem akin to failing one of the Joker's social experiments from The Dark Knight. Hell, I'm even afraid of giving my should-win vote to anyone other than Heath Ledger for fear I'll end up with a pencil shoved through my eye.
Will Win: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Should Win: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Even if people wanted to vote for a critics darling like Josh Brolin (Milk) in this category, to do so might seem akin to failing one of the Joker's social experiments from The Dark Knight. Hell, I'm even afraid of giving my should-win vote to anyone other than Heath Ledger for fear I'll end up with a pencil shoved through my eye.
Will Win: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Should Win: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Score
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/02/2009 14:32:27 In: Oscars Comments: 0
The brouhaha over The Dark Knight's eligibility has been settled and found irrelevant. Clearly, the Academy music branch prefers their James Newton Howard scores to sit down, shut up, and give the timpani a rest. Thus, he gets his nomination for his collaboration with director Edward Zwick, resulting in a music score with all the potency and dynamic range that particular combination of cinematic personalities would imply. As far as composers who are starting to rack up stacks of nominations without toppling over into a win, Danny Elfman (Milk) and Thomas Newman (WALL-E) undoubtedly stand better shots than Newton Howard. But neither are solid bets, in part because the ghosts of previous compositions overshadow them. Like the movie that surrounds it, Newman's understated work in the earlier portion of WALL-E eventually slips into a slightly disappointing techno-satire, and even though the "Define Dancing" cue is gorgeous, the movie's most enduring musical legacy is the hat routine WALL-E performs to his VHS copy of Hello, Dolly. And Elfman's score almost deliberately avoids the sort of emotional gut-punch that Mark Isham provided in his muted, icy requiem for The Times of Harvey Milk. Flip that equation and you have Alexandre Desplat's conundrum. His luxuriantly legato cues are like an entire movie's worth (make that movie-and-a-half's worth) of John Williams's elegiac coda from A.I., but no matter how pliantly his orchestra bends their bows to forge an emotional connection, Fincher's film retains its calculated distance from the material. Not that I'm saying every last voter got weepy over AR Rahman's tranced-out interpolation of the theme from Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, but it may be the one piece of music whose pulse most closely matches that of its respective film.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The brouhaha over The Dark Knight's eligibility has been settled and found irrelevant. Clearly, the Academy music branch prefers their James Newton Howard scores to sit down, shut up, and give the timpani a rest. Thus, he gets his nomination for his collaboration with director Edward Zwick, resulting in a music score with all the potency and dynamic range that particular combination of cinematic personalities would imply. As far as composers who are starting to rack up stacks of nominations without toppling over into a win, Danny Elfman (Milk) and Thomas Newman (WALL-E) undoubtedly stand better shots than Newton Howard. But neither are solid bets, in part because the ghosts of previous compositions overshadow them. Like the movie that surrounds it, Newman's understated work in the earlier portion of WALL-E eventually slips into a slightly disappointing techno-satire, and even though the "Define Dancing" cue is gorgeous, the movie's most enduring musical legacy is the hat routine WALL-E performs to his VHS copy of Hello, Dolly. And Elfman's score almost deliberately avoids the sort of emotional gut-punch that Mark Isham provided in his muted, icy requiem for The Times of Harvey Milk. Flip that equation and you have Alexandre Desplat's conundrum. His luxuriantly legato cues are like an entire movie's worth (make that movie-and-a-half's worth) of John Williams's elegiac coda from A.I., but no matter how pliantly his orchestra bends their bows to forge an emotional connection, Fincher's film retains its calculated distance from the material. Not that I'm saying every last voter got weepy over AR Rahman's tranced-out interpolation of the theme from Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, but it may be the one piece of music whose pulse most closely matches that of its respective film.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Short (Live Action)
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/01/2009 14:37:15 In: Oscars Comments: 1
Manon on the Asphalt is a whimsical evocation of a woman's life flashing before her eyes, but On the Line is the real standout here: The story of a department store security guard obsessed with a book clerk, Reto Caffi's short risks meet-cute contrivance until a horrifying act of violence provokes the main character to examine the implications of his infatuation. From Denmark, The Pig begins as mysteriously as On the Line ends, with an interesting relationship imagined between an older gentleman and the painting of a pig that hangs from his hospital room, only to devolve into a shrill, rather supremacist why-can't-we-all-just-get-along rant. If On the Line bears a striking resemblance to Revanche over in the foreign language category, so too does New Boy bring to mind The Class. Except this is a noticeably dumbed-down version of Laurent Cantet's Cannes prizewinner—one in which a young African immigrant boy struggles with bullies during his first day of class, his embarrassment intercut with scenes from his experiences inside his previous place of learning in violent, succulently shot Africa. Director Steph Green's literally infantilizes the struggle of immigrants trying to cope with their new surroundings, and though there's no doubt the short will appeal to the Academy (here's looking at you fans of Crash, Blood Diamond, The Visitor, and Frozen River), it's probably unwise to vote against Toyland. Throughout this WWII-set story of a woman who convinces her son that her Jewish neighbors are headed to Toyland, director Jochen Alexander Freydank risks the gross insult of The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, but he makes interesting use of chronology throughout, in the end foregrounding a woman's frightened courage and conviction to preserving life rather than making a tacky spectacle of death.
Will Win: Toyland
Should Win: On the Line
Manon on the Asphalt is a whimsical evocation of a woman's life flashing before her eyes, but On the Line is the real standout here: The story of a department store security guard obsessed with a book clerk, Reto Caffi's short risks meet-cute contrivance until a horrifying act of violence provokes the main character to examine the implications of his infatuation. From Denmark, The Pig begins as mysteriously as On the Line ends, with an interesting relationship imagined between an older gentleman and the painting of a pig that hangs from his hospital room, only to devolve into a shrill, rather supremacist why-can't-we-all-just-get-along rant. If On the Line bears a striking resemblance to Revanche over in the foreign language category, so too does New Boy bring to mind The Class. Except this is a noticeably dumbed-down version of Laurent Cantet's Cannes prizewinner—one in which a young African immigrant boy struggles with bullies during his first day of class, his embarrassment intercut with scenes from his experiences inside his previous place of learning in violent, succulently shot Africa. Director Steph Green's literally infantilizes the struggle of immigrants trying to cope with their new surroundings, and though there's no doubt the short will appeal to the Academy (here's looking at you fans of Crash, Blood Diamond, The Visitor, and Frozen River), it's probably unwise to vote against Toyland. Throughout this WWII-set story of a woman who convinces her son that her Jewish neighbors are headed to Toyland, director Jochen Alexander Freydank risks the gross insult of The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, but he makes interesting use of chronology throughout, in the end foregrounding a woman's frightened courage and conviction to preserving life rather than making a tacky spectacle of death.
Will Win: Toyland
Should Win: On the Line
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Short (Animated)
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 01/31/2009 16:23:49 In: Oscars Comments: 0
Strange that the only time Pixar won here was the same year it lostand tragically soin the race for Animated Feature. Nine years later, it seems doubtful that Presto, which accompanied WALL-E throughout its theatrical run, will end what's slowly becoming a Susan Lucci-esque losing streak: The story of a bunny who takes vengeance on the magician who denies him a carrot, the short is adorably feisty but forgettable. If you spend much of the film wondering what Chuck Jones could have done with it, you'll likely balk at Oktapoid, in which two octopi struggle to escape from the clutches of a delivery man, for seeming too much like an audition on the part of its six directors for a job at, yes, Pixar. Like Presto, Oktapoid lacks for poignancy, but neither film is as flippant as This Way Up, the story of two glum undertakers whose attempt to bury an old woman is constantly and inexplicably thwarted by the world around them. If This Way Up trivializes death, Lavatory Lovestory cutely celebrates the possibility of love blossoming in unexpected places, but Konstantin Bronstin's memorable short doesn't hold a candle to the only other 2D short in the category, La Maison en Petits Cubes. The strange account of an old man who builds his house up toward the heavens as the water that drowns the world continues to rise, Kunito Kato's production initially cries out for context, until the old man loses his pipe and his attempt to retrieve it from the lower levels of his home literally opens the floodgates of memory. The Triplets of Belleville cult will go nuts for Kato's expressionistic drawings and his intuitive evocation of loss and loneliness.
Will Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Should Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Strange that the only time Pixar won here was the same year it lostand tragically soin the race for Animated Feature. Nine years later, it seems doubtful that Presto, which accompanied WALL-E throughout its theatrical run, will end what's slowly becoming a Susan Lucci-esque losing streak: The story of a bunny who takes vengeance on the magician who denies him a carrot, the short is adorably feisty but forgettable. If you spend much of the film wondering what Chuck Jones could have done with it, you'll likely balk at Oktapoid, in which two octopi struggle to escape from the clutches of a delivery man, for seeming too much like an audition on the part of its six directors for a job at, yes, Pixar. Like Presto, Oktapoid lacks for poignancy, but neither film is as flippant as This Way Up, the story of two glum undertakers whose attempt to bury an old woman is constantly and inexplicably thwarted by the world around them. If This Way Up trivializes death, Lavatory Lovestory cutely celebrates the possibility of love blossoming in unexpected places, but Konstantin Bronstin's memorable short doesn't hold a candle to the only other 2D short in the category, La Maison en Petits Cubes. The strange account of an old man who builds his house up toward the heavens as the water that drowns the world continues to rise, Kunito Kato's production initially cries out for context, until the old man loses his pipe and his attempt to retrieve it from the lower levels of his home literally opens the floodgates of memory. The Triplets of Belleville cult will go nuts for Kato's expressionistic drawings and his intuitive evocation of loss and loneliness.
Will Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Should Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Makeup
By: Eric Henderson On: 01/30/2009 14:23:59 In: Oscars Comments: 1
It's probably foolish to immediately write off the movie nominated in 12 other categories, but if there was one moment in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button that threw me clean out of the movie's up-to-then pretty seamless illusion, it was the moment the crane shot landed on Brad Pitt on that fishing boatthe precise point where the visual effects team hands the reigns of ancient Pitt over to the makeup team, who handle middle-aged Pitt. Granted, the movie doesn't truly get lost in Uncanny Valley until the VFX team makes their encore performance to turn the clock back (forward?) on Pitt's face, suggesting a PIXAR remake of Legends of the Fall. In any case, Benjamin Button has to have a better shot than The Dark Knight, unless all 38 Academy members who are both male and under 40 want to show their gratitude for helping them out with their Halloween costumes this year. (Like elderly Pitt, Two-Face is really more a VFX triumph.) Though Academy members might find its rogue's gallery a lot less Alice in Wonderland and a lot more Hellraiser, we're betting Guillermo Del Toro's Oscar goodwill continues here.
Will Win: Hellboy II
Should Win: Hellboy II
It's probably foolish to immediately write off the movie nominated in 12 other categories, but if there was one moment in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button that threw me clean out of the movie's up-to-then pretty seamless illusion, it was the moment the crane shot landed on Brad Pitt on that fishing boatthe precise point where the visual effects team hands the reigns of ancient Pitt over to the makeup team, who handle middle-aged Pitt. Granted, the movie doesn't truly get lost in Uncanny Valley until the VFX team makes their encore performance to turn the clock back (forward?) on Pitt's face, suggesting a PIXAR remake of Legends of the Fall. In any case, Benjamin Button has to have a better shot than The Dark Knight, unless all 38 Academy members who are both male and under 40 want to show their gratitude for helping them out with their Halloween costumes this year. (Like elderly Pitt, Two-Face is really more a VFX triumph.) Though Academy members might find its rogue's gallery a lot less Alice in Wonderland and a lot more Hellraiser, we're betting Guillermo Del Toro's Oscar goodwill continues here.
Will Win: Hellboy II
Should Win: Hellboy II
Oscar Race 2009: Nomination Predictions - Picture
By: Eric Henderson On: 01/21/2009 05:49:24 In: Oscars Comments: 4
There's nothing more to add to what "actressexual" blogger Nathaniel R. already made perfectly clear when he reacted to the umpteenth set of guild nominations reflecting the carbon-copy lineup of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire? And I quote: "I'm so confused right now. I swear that I saw 113 movies in 2008 and I'm beginning to think that I imagined 108 of them. Did I? Are these the only 5 movies that came out in 2008? It sure seems like it. Who knew that movie theaters were so empty all year? I specifically remember being in movie theaters and in all kinds of places and weather, too. Am I losing my mind?" Like Jamal's game-show victory, it is apparently written in stone that these five films will move on to the next round; one gets the sense that this Best Picture lineup won't actually have anything to do with Academy voters' personalities, biases, or whims. And who are we to argue when there's such a clear lack of alternative candidates below the line, thanks in large part to guild hegemony? Case closed, right? And yetthere is the small matter of voter passion. Academy nominations are set up in such a way that rewards passionate fan bases, something I'd argue at least two of these preordained nominees-elect don't have; I'm looking specifically in the direction of the two films about politicians not named Barack Obama. Maybe living in the Obama era for the last 24 hours has filled me with a newfound sense of optimism, but I reckon that most of the voters who bother to cite WALL-E on their ballots are most likely to slot it at the top of their lists. Maybe I'm wrong, and maybe old-guard Academy voting habits (the ones that hold politically liberal, aesthetically conservative biopics above all other films) die hard. But for now, here's to blind hope.
Will Be Nominated: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire, and WALL-E
Should Be Nominated: Happy-Go-Lucky, In the City of Sylvia, Rachel Getting Married, WALL-E, and The Witnesses
There's nothing more to add to what "actressexual" blogger Nathaniel R. already made perfectly clear when he reacted to the umpteenth set of guild nominations reflecting the carbon-copy lineup of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire? And I quote: "I'm so confused right now. I swear that I saw 113 movies in 2008 and I'm beginning to think that I imagined 108 of them. Did I? Are these the only 5 movies that came out in 2008? It sure seems like it. Who knew that movie theaters were so empty all year? I specifically remember being in movie theaters and in all kinds of places and weather, too. Am I losing my mind?" Like Jamal's game-show victory, it is apparently written in stone that these five films will move on to the next round; one gets the sense that this Best Picture lineup won't actually have anything to do with Academy voters' personalities, biases, or whims. And who are we to argue when there's such a clear lack of alternative candidates below the line, thanks in large part to guild hegemony? Case closed, right? And yetthere is the small matter of voter passion. Academy nominations are set up in such a way that rewards passionate fan bases, something I'd argue at least two of these preordained nominees-elect don't have; I'm looking specifically in the direction of the two films about politicians not named Barack Obama. Maybe living in the Obama era for the last 24 hours has filled me with a newfound sense of optimism, but I reckon that most of the voters who bother to cite WALL-E on their ballots are most likely to slot it at the top of their lists. Maybe I'm wrong, and maybe old-guard Academy voting habits (the ones that hold politically liberal, aesthetically conservative biopics above all other films) die hard. But for now, here's to blind hope.
Will Be Nominated: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire, and WALL-E
Should Be Nominated: Happy-Go-Lucky, In the City of Sylvia, Rachel Getting Married, WALL-E, and The Witnesses
Oscar Race 2009: Nomination Predictions - Director
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 01/20/2009 15:30:21 In: Oscars Comments: 2
You know the drill: No guild is better at predicting the winner of the Best Picture Oscar than the Directors Guild of America. For Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures, the group this year has thrown its weight behind David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight), Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), Gus Van Sant (Milk), and Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire), and history tells us at least three, most likely four, of these directors will hear their names called when Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday. We think it'll be four this year, and before you accuse us of wishful thinking when we say Ron Howard will be the odd-man out, let us remind you how Opie was nominated for a DGA in 1986, for Cocoon, but failed to secure an Oscar nomination. Okay, so no one really expected an Oscar nomination to follow that curious DGA acknowledgement, but let us also remember how Opie followed in Steven Spielberg's footsteps by winning the DGA award a decade later for Apollo 13 but again falling short of an Oscar nomination. Those were merciful snubs, and though AMPAS would finally shine a light on the man for A Beautiful Mind, we'd like to think enough Oscar voters have come around to the embarrassment of that award to refuse the man a chance at another victory lap. Yes, Frost/Nixon's show-and-tell screenplay and smugness may be up the Academy's alley, but I can't be the only one who feels the film has the look of something shot on Michael Douglas's ginormous Wall Street cell phone. The Academy's director's branch is known for giving at least one spot here to industry outsiders, assuming you feel folks like Pedro Almodovar and Paul Greengrass qualify as such, and though Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler) fits that criterion quite nicely, so does five-time Oscar nominee Mike Leigh, a surprise Best Director entrant a few years back for Vera Drake and whose Happy-Go-Lucky may be his best work to date. The richness of Leigh's philosophical inquiry has ironically and tellingly flown over the heads of persons stuck on Sally Hawkins's performance, but there's no doubting that the popularity of the film feels as passionate as a ribald flamenco dance—something you could never say about Howard's frosty motion picture.
Will Be Nominated: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire, David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky, Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight, and Gus Van Sant for Milk
Should Be Nominated: Tomas Alfredson for Let the Right One In, Jonathan Demme for Rachel Getting Married, Jose Luis Guerin for In the City of Sylvia, Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky, and André Téchiné for The Witnesses
You know the drill: No guild is better at predicting the winner of the Best Picture Oscar than the Directors Guild of America. For Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures, the group this year has thrown its weight behind David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight), Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), Gus Van Sant (Milk), and Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire), and history tells us at least three, most likely four, of these directors will hear their names called when Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday. We think it'll be four this year, and before you accuse us of wishful thinking when we say Ron Howard will be the odd-man out, let us remind you how Opie was nominated for a DGA in 1986, for Cocoon, but failed to secure an Oscar nomination. Okay, so no one really expected an Oscar nomination to follow that curious DGA acknowledgement, but let us also remember how Opie followed in Steven Spielberg's footsteps by winning the DGA award a decade later for Apollo 13 but again falling short of an Oscar nomination. Those were merciful snubs, and though AMPAS would finally shine a light on the man for A Beautiful Mind, we'd like to think enough Oscar voters have come around to the embarrassment of that award to refuse the man a chance at another victory lap. Yes, Frost/Nixon's show-and-tell screenplay and smugness may be up the Academy's alley, but I can't be the only one who feels the film has the look of something shot on Michael Douglas's ginormous Wall Street cell phone. The Academy's director's branch is known for giving at least one spot here to industry outsiders, assuming you feel folks like Pedro Almodovar and Paul Greengrass qualify as such, and though Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler) fits that criterion quite nicely, so does five-time Oscar nominee Mike Leigh, a surprise Best Director entrant a few years back for Vera Drake and whose Happy-Go-Lucky may be his best work to date. The richness of Leigh's philosophical inquiry has ironically and tellingly flown over the heads of persons stuck on Sally Hawkins's performance, but there's no doubting that the popularity of the film feels as passionate as a ribald flamenco dance—something you could never say about Howard's frosty motion picture.
Will Be Nominated: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire, David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky, Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight, and Gus Van Sant for Milk
Should Be Nominated: Tomas Alfredson for Let the Right One In, Jonathan Demme for Rachel Getting Married, Jose Luis Guerin for In the City of Sylvia, Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky, and André Téchiné for The Witnesses
Oscar Race 2009: Nomination Predictions - Actor
By: Eric Henderson On: 01/19/2009 14:09:16 In: Oscars Comments: 0
You can write Brad Pitt off right now—not because his performance presumably owes some debt to the wizardry of makeup and hexadecimal code (let's face it, actors frequently flat-out win this category thanks to wonton latex appliqué), but instead because this category is owned by the assholes. Make that old assholes, otherwise Leonardo DiCaprio's devolution in Revolutionary Road from smooth but sensitive breadwinner to sniveling, tantrum prone boy-in-man's-body would probably be every bit the contender Kate Winslet is. DiCaprio's still got a shot, but we prefer the odds on Richard Jenkins (who underplays his crusty role to the extent that The Visitor becomes less an example of white liberal guilt and more an endorsement of well-timed white liberal rage), Frank Langella (whose Richard Nixon resembles the former president only in the same sense that Joan Crawford resembled Medea), and Clint Eastwood. Granted, Eastwood's probably got the toughest obstacles to surmount because, though his character (potential spoiler alert) achieves a dignified and easy moment of total redemption, and even though he coughs up more blood than Camille, Satine, and Ratso Rizzo combined, there is the small matter of how delicately Eastwood the director allows Eastwood the scowling matinee idol to walk the line between absolving him of his grumpy-old-coot racism and valorizing him for it. But we can easily imagine there's a big enough bloc of Academy members who now stroke their own cocked fingers while glaring at their minority of choice. That all said, the category's two undeniable frontrunners—Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke—are admittedly not so much assholes as they are calculating and callous, respectively. Rourke's biggest dick move (forgetting to go out for dinner with his estranged daughter) would normally be forgiven in the second act of a family sitcom. And Sean Penn's ruthlessness as a politician is easily rectified by the film's firm knowledge that he's in the right; in other words, slightly dirty politics are A-OK if they light the fire under the asses of the well-meaning do-nothing-ers. Like Nixon said, when Harvey Milk stabs Dan White in the back and all but blackmails George Moscone, it's not illegal.
Will Be Nominated: Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino, Richard Jenkins for The Visitor, Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon, Sean Penn for Milk, and Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
Should Be Nominated: Chiwetel Ejiofor for Redbelt, Michael Fassbender for Hunger, Ben Kingsley for Elegy, Sean Penn for Milk, and Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
You can write Brad Pitt off right now—not because his performance presumably owes some debt to the wizardry of makeup and hexadecimal code (let's face it, actors frequently flat-out win this category thanks to wonton latex appliqué), but instead because this category is owned by the assholes. Make that old assholes, otherwise Leonardo DiCaprio's devolution in Revolutionary Road from smooth but sensitive breadwinner to sniveling, tantrum prone boy-in-man's-body would probably be every bit the contender Kate Winslet is. DiCaprio's still got a shot, but we prefer the odds on Richard Jenkins (who underplays his crusty role to the extent that The Visitor becomes less an example of white liberal guilt and more an endorsement of well-timed white liberal rage), Frank Langella (whose Richard Nixon resembles the former president only in the same sense that Joan Crawford resembled Medea), and Clint Eastwood. Granted, Eastwood's probably got the toughest obstacles to surmount because, though his character (potential spoiler alert) achieves a dignified and easy moment of total redemption, and even though he coughs up more blood than Camille, Satine, and Ratso Rizzo combined, there is the small matter of how delicately Eastwood the director allows Eastwood the scowling matinee idol to walk the line between absolving him of his grumpy-old-coot racism and valorizing him for it. But we can easily imagine there's a big enough bloc of Academy members who now stroke their own cocked fingers while glaring at their minority of choice. That all said, the category's two undeniable frontrunners—Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke—are admittedly not so much assholes as they are calculating and callous, respectively. Rourke's biggest dick move (forgetting to go out for dinner with his estranged daughter) would normally be forgiven in the second act of a family sitcom. And Sean Penn's ruthlessness as a politician is easily rectified by the film's firm knowledge that he's in the right; in other words, slightly dirty politics are A-OK if they light the fire under the asses of the well-meaning do-nothing-ers. Like Nixon said, when Harvey Milk stabs Dan White in the back and all but blackmails George Moscone, it's not illegal.
Will Be Nominated: Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino, Richard Jenkins for The Visitor, Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon, Sean Penn for Milk, and Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
Should Be Nominated: Chiwetel Ejiofor for Redbelt, Michael Fassbender for Hunger, Ben Kingsley for Elegy, Sean Penn for Milk, and Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
Oscar Race 2009: Nomination Predictions - Original Screenplay
By: Eric Henderson On: 01/18/2009 14:30:03 In: Oscars Comments: 0
There are two ways to spin this category. The first and most polite way is to say that, unlike Adapted Screenplay, it's filled with qualified, even great, contenders, that it will be an honor to be nominated in this category this year. The second and less polite way to spin it is that there are a lot of films here that probably ought to be stronger contenders in a lot of other categories, starting with the other category writers can nominate them in: Best Picture. Beyond Milk (which, being based on a true story, is only tenuously "original" given that the Academy delegated sequel-not-remake Before Sunset to Adapted Screenplay), there aren't many eligible films that feel as though they could crossover into that venerated top category, and yet still we find a surplus of possibilities here. Sure, Rachel Getting Married drives as many people to drink as it does inspire others to celebrate it with a long, unwieldy toast. Sure, the relish with which writer Nick Schenk serves up Clint Eastwood's persuasive, creative racial slurs in Gran Torino occasionally suggests the use of Paul Haggis's thesaurus. Sure, we think Vicky Cristina Barcelona is more Icky Christina Barfelona and that buzz for The Visitor has overstayed its welcome and that The Wrestler falls hard into cliché whenever it tries to string a narrative sentence together. The point is some of these movies can at least boast a passionate fanbase, something I refuse to believe exists for Frost/Nixon, even if evidence in the form of a near-perfect precursor record suggests the opposite. It's a logical fallacy to synthesize the actions of a small subgroup with the larger voting body, and I don't mean to suggest that a great script automatically means a great film. I'm merely holding the state of this race up as an illustration of why it sometimes seems that you'll find genuine character in individual categories that you only rarely find at the very top. Why you get Children of Men, A History of Violence, and Borat down in the writing categories but don't presume they were even in the running against the preordained likes of Babel, Capote, and Ray. Oftentimes you hear film fans moan how the Oscar nominees for either of the screenplay categories would've made a better, or at least more interesting set of Best Picture nominees. Nothing suggests this year will be any different.
Will Be Nominated: Happy-Go-Lucky, Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and WALL-E
Should Be Nominated: Happy-Go-Lucky, My Winnipeg, Rachel Getting Married, Reprise, and The Witnesses
There are two ways to spin this category. The first and most polite way is to say that, unlike Adapted Screenplay, it's filled with qualified, even great, contenders, that it will be an honor to be nominated in this category this year. The second and less polite way to spin it is that there are a lot of films here that probably ought to be stronger contenders in a lot of other categories, starting with the other category writers can nominate them in: Best Picture. Beyond Milk (which, being based on a true story, is only tenuously "original" given that the Academy delegated sequel-not-remake Before Sunset to Adapted Screenplay), there aren't many eligible films that feel as though they could crossover into that venerated top category, and yet still we find a surplus of possibilities here. Sure, Rachel Getting Married drives as many people to drink as it does inspire others to celebrate it with a long, unwieldy toast. Sure, the relish with which writer Nick Schenk serves up Clint Eastwood's persuasive, creative racial slurs in Gran Torino occasionally suggests the use of Paul Haggis's thesaurus. Sure, we think Vicky Cristina Barcelona is more Icky Christina Barfelona and that buzz for The Visitor has overstayed its welcome and that The Wrestler falls hard into cliché whenever it tries to string a narrative sentence together. The point is some of these movies can at least boast a passionate fanbase, something I refuse to believe exists for Frost/Nixon, even if evidence in the form of a near-perfect precursor record suggests the opposite. It's a logical fallacy to synthesize the actions of a small subgroup with the larger voting body, and I don't mean to suggest that a great script automatically means a great film. I'm merely holding the state of this race up as an illustration of why it sometimes seems that you'll find genuine character in individual categories that you only rarely find at the very top. Why you get Children of Men, A History of Violence, and Borat down in the writing categories but don't presume they were even in the running against the preordained likes of Babel, Capote, and Ray. Oftentimes you hear film fans moan how the Oscar nominees for either of the screenplay categories would've made a better, or at least more interesting set of Best Picture nominees. Nothing suggests this year will be any different.
Will Be Nominated: Happy-Go-Lucky, Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and WALL-E
Should Be Nominated: Happy-Go-Lucky, My Winnipeg, Rachel Getting Married, Reprise, and The Witnesses
Oscar Race 2009: Nomination Predictions - Adapted Screenplay
By: Eric Henderson On: 01/17/2009 14:28:51 In: Oscars Comments: 0
For the first time, Slant has decided to tackle nomination predictions in the screenplay categories. Why, you ask? Are we simply making an attempt to demonstrate prognosticating prowess? Nah, it's because they're just so damned easy this year, especially the category based on material previously produced or published, now currently plundered or pillaged. Most years, this is the category that's overstocked with potential candidates, if for no other reason than Oscar's historic fondness for films that assert their Tradition of Quality credentials by adapting from serious literature. In other words, more Best Picture candidates get their validation here. That said, it's precisely that literary bias that might keep one of the strongest dark-horse Best Picture candidates out of the running. The Dark Knight boasts a WGA nomination, but we're betting the Academy's writers branch will probably over-consider the source. It's not like they've never nominated scripts based off comic books before. Hell, they've done it three times already this decade: Ghost World, American Splendor, and A History of Violence. But this is Batman we're talking about, and my hunch is that the writers en masse won't embrace the words growled by Christian Bale as warmly as they did the snark evinced by Thora Birch or the fuggedaboutits from William Hurt. Otherwise, there's very little reason to argue against the other four scripts cited by WGA: Benjamin Lumpen, Shout, Lost/Nixon, and Slumdog Millionaire. Little reason to argue because there's almost nothing else out there. The ranks are so thin that we could almost see them finding room for the appropriately titled Let the Right One In, but they usually only check their radar for films with hipster cachet over in Original Screenplay. Nah, the final spot probably comes down to one of the two tasteful Kate Winslet adaptations. The overripe dialogue of Revolutionary Road is certainly more gaseous, but writers who've had "show, don't tell" drilled into their heads won't respond kindly to all of Winslet-DiCaprio's declaratives. Bet on The Reader to land the fifth slot in talismanic (if misguided) defense of literacy.
Will Be Nominated: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, and Slumdog Millionaire
Should Be Nominated: The Class, Elegy, Kit Kittredge: An American Girl, Let the Right One In, and Slumdog Millionaire
For the first time, Slant has decided to tackle nomination predictions in the screenplay categories. Why, you ask? Are we simply making an attempt to demonstrate prognosticating prowess? Nah, it's because they're just so damned easy this year, especially the category based on material previously produced or published, now currently plundered or pillaged. Most years, this is the category that's overstocked with potential candidates, if for no other reason than Oscar's historic fondness for films that assert their Tradition of Quality credentials by adapting from serious literature. In other words, more Best Picture candidates get their validation here. That said, it's precisely that literary bias that might keep one of the strongest dark-horse Best Picture candidates out of the running. The Dark Knight boasts a WGA nomination, but we're betting the Academy's writers branch will probably over-consider the source. It's not like they've never nominated scripts based off comic books before. Hell, they've done it three times already this decade: Ghost World, American Splendor, and A History of Violence. But this is Batman we're talking about, and my hunch is that the writers en masse won't embrace the words growled by Christian Bale as warmly as they did the snark evinced by Thora Birch or the fuggedaboutits from William Hurt. Otherwise, there's very little reason to argue against the other four scripts cited by WGA: Benjamin Lumpen, Shout, Lost/Nixon, and Slumdog Millionaire. Little reason to argue because there's almost nothing else out there. The ranks are so thin that we could almost see them finding room for the appropriately titled Let the Right One In, but they usually only check their radar for films with hipster cachet over in Original Screenplay. Nah, the final spot probably comes down to one of the two tasteful Kate Winslet adaptations. The overripe dialogue of Revolutionary Road is certainly more gaseous, but writers who've had "show, don't tell" drilled into their heads won't respond kindly to all of Winslet-DiCaprio's declaratives. Bet on The Reader to land the fifth slot in talismanic (if misguided) defense of literacy.
Will Be Nominated: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, and Slumdog Millionaire
Should Be Nominated: The Class, Elegy, Kit Kittredge: An American Girl, Let the Right One In, and Slumdog Millionaire
Oscar Race 2009: Nomination Predictions - Actress
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 01/16/2009 15:06:42 In: Oscars Comments: 1
One of the more frustrating aspects of the seemingly year-long awards season is watching pundits and prognosticators remain largely oblivious to their role in shaping the Oscar race. The noise people like Tom O'Neill make throughout the year feels as influential to this rat race as the awards handed out by critics, which makes it frustrating when these pundits refuse to promote films they've seen instead of lavishing free publicity on productions that won't come out for many months. These forecasters buy into the idea that films released during the beginning of the year have no chance at snagging Oscar nominations, and their disinterest in endorsing films such as The Witnesses and The Flight of the Red Balloon rubs off on distributors, when it stands to reason that some of these films might actually connect with Oscar voters if more awards watchers were less interested in snagging better batting averages than their fellow soothsayers. But is this trend changing? Take, for example, the rather exceptional cases of Richard Jenkins and Melissa Leo. It's unlikely these two fine, older performers would be on any Oscar voter's mind right now if it wasn't for the concerted reportage of people like Awards Daily guru Sasha Stone, one of the few Oscar bloggers out there who seems to recognize that Academy members are among her readers, and who often took a break from conventional prognosticating last year to spotlight films and performances she felt should to be on AMPAS's radar. There's never joy in seeing films like The Visitor and Frozen River (both, curiously, without prime real estate over at Stuff White People Like) lapping up praise, but there's no doubt that Jenkins and Leo survive these risible films with their dignities in tact, or that Stone's coverage of the Oscar race is thoughtful in a way O'Neill's never is. Without the efforts of persons like Stone, it's impossible to imagine Leo with a SAG nomination, something Sally Hawkins doesn't have—though Hawkins has something Leo doesn't: a Golden Globe and the adoration of the collective critical community, to say nothing of Meryl Streep's approval. If Hawkins, Anne Hathaway, Streep, and Kate Winslet are locks by this point, that leaves Leo to fend off Angelina Jolie for the final spot, assuming you believe Cate Blanchett's predictably chilly non-performance in The Curious Benjamin Button and Kristin Scott Thomas's heralded turn in Me Love You Long Time don't have enough fans. Jolie, who was arguably snubbed last year for A Mighty Heart, received both a SAG and Golden Globe nomination for her work in Changeling, and though she has big-studio muscle behind her, the Clint Eastwood film's tepid critical reception will undoubtably hurt the superstar actress. For sure, just as the buzz around Jolie's performance has continued to dissipate, Leo's has only built since being vetted by people like Stone (was this partly responsible for Sony Pictures Classics beating every other studio out of the gate with Frozen River screeners?) and catching the attention of both SAG and the Independent Spirit Awards.
Will Be Nominated: Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married, Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky, Melissa Leo for Frozen River, Meryl Streep for Doubt, and Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road
Should Be Nominated: Juliette Binoche for The Flight of the Red Balloon, Penélope Cruz for Elegy, Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married, Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky, and Famke Janssen for Turn the River
One of the more frustrating aspects of the seemingly year-long awards season is watching pundits and prognosticators remain largely oblivious to their role in shaping the Oscar race. The noise people like Tom O'Neill make throughout the year feels as influential to this rat race as the awards handed out by critics, which makes it frustrating when these pundits refuse to promote films they've seen instead of lavishing free publicity on productions that won't come out for many months. These forecasters buy into the idea that films released during the beginning of the year have no chance at snagging Oscar nominations, and their disinterest in endorsing films such as The Witnesses and The Flight of the Red Balloon rubs off on distributors, when it stands to reason that some of these films might actually connect with Oscar voters if more awards watchers were less interested in snagging better batting averages than their fellow soothsayers. But is this trend changing? Take, for example, the rather exceptional cases of Richard Jenkins and Melissa Leo. It's unlikely these two fine, older performers would be on any Oscar voter's mind right now if it wasn't for the concerted reportage of people like Awards Daily guru Sasha Stone, one of the few Oscar bloggers out there who seems to recognize that Academy members are among her readers, and who often took a break from conventional prognosticating last year to spotlight films and performances she felt should to be on AMPAS's radar. There's never joy in seeing films like The Visitor and Frozen River (both, curiously, without prime real estate over at Stuff White People Like) lapping up praise, but there's no doubt that Jenkins and Leo survive these risible films with their dignities in tact, or that Stone's coverage of the Oscar race is thoughtful in a way O'Neill's never is. Without the efforts of persons like Stone, it's impossible to imagine Leo with a SAG nomination, something Sally Hawkins doesn't have—though Hawkins has something Leo doesn't: a Golden Globe and the adoration of the collective critical community, to say nothing of Meryl Streep's approval. If Hawkins, Anne Hathaway, Streep, and Kate Winslet are locks by this point, that leaves Leo to fend off Angelina Jolie for the final spot, assuming you believe Cate Blanchett's predictably chilly non-performance in The Curious Benjamin Button and Kristin Scott Thomas's heralded turn in Me Love You Long Time don't have enough fans. Jolie, who was arguably snubbed last year for A Mighty Heart, received both a SAG and Golden Globe nomination for her work in Changeling, and though she has big-studio muscle behind her, the Clint Eastwood film's tepid critical reception will undoubtably hurt the superstar actress. For sure, just as the buzz around Jolie's performance has continued to dissipate, Leo's has only built since being vetted by people like Stone (was this partly responsible for Sony Pictures Classics beating every other studio out of the gate with Frozen River screeners?) and catching the attention of both SAG and the Independent Spirit Awards.
Will Be Nominated: Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married, Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky, Melissa Leo for Frozen River, Meryl Streep for Doubt, and Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road
Should Be Nominated: Juliette Binoche for The Flight of the Red Balloon, Penélope Cruz for Elegy, Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married, Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky, and Famke Janssen for Turn the River
Oscar Race 2009: Nomination Predictions - Supporting Actress
By: Eric Henderson On: 01/15/2009 15:02:57 In: Oscars Comments: 2
Call it a showdown between the two wannabes. Leave it to the Golden Globes to return (from their obligatory hiatus during last year's WGA strike) and destroy the nefariously sycophantic Broadcast Film Critics Association's carefully laid plans for Kate Winslet. Almost as though to deliberately undercut the BFCA's self-appointed, self-important positioning as the most accurate bellweather for Oscar whims, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association responded to the BFCA's highly prescriptive, strategic best supporting actress award for Winslet's arguably leading performance in The Reader by handing Winslet two Golden Globes (one for The Reader, the other for Revolutionary Road, Winslet's official leading performance bid). Aside from raining on poor Anne Hathaway's days after rumors surfaced in the blogosphere that the Globes's website preemptively tipped her as the winner, the HFPA's actions have also essentially hit the reset button on Winslet's campaign, which up until about last week appeared to be barely surviving mostly on the maxim "strength in numbers." Given both of Winslet's performances this year are housed in what we expect to be revealed next Thursday as failed Oscar bait that no one particularly likes, we were originally going to bank on the Academy's resistance to allowing a questionable double bid just because Winslet's presence is considered obligatory (especially after the same hustle netted Cate Blanchett a best actress nomination for fucking Elizabeth: The Golden Age last year). Because her thinking man's Ilsa act in The Reader is at least conceptually riskier than her put-upon dishrag Debbie Downer in Revolutionary Road, we were that close to throwing her by the wayside in this category, especially because there's a clearly superior crypto-leading role in the mix (Rosemarie DeWitt, whose titular character in Rachel Getting Married has been shut out of a lot of races thus far, but we feel anyone who actually watches enough of the film to justify throwing their vote toward frontrunner Anne Hathaway should have no other choice but to recognize DeWitt's equally tricky, equally attention-stealing performance). But given how recent developments have cocked up the BFCA's attempt to engineer a narrative strategy, Winslet should reap the benefit of the doubt, and thus we doubt Amy Adams's utter lack of doubt in Doubt will prove as redoubtable as Viola Davis, Penelope Cruz, and Marisa Tomei, unimpeachable frontrunners all. That clears the first hurdle for soon-to-be seven-time nominee Winslet. Luckily for those that don't necessarily want to know the results of every last Oscar category months in advance, the Oscars are entirely on their own at this point to figure out whether they want to award Winslet twice, once, or not at all.
Will Be Nominated: Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Viola Davis for Doubt, Rosemarie DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married, Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler, and Kate Winslet for The Reader
Should Be Nominated: Rosemarie DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married, Beyonce Knowles for Cadillac Records, Julia Ormand for Kit Kittredge: An American Girl, Ann Savage for My Winnipeg, and Debra Winger for Rachel Getting Married
Call it a showdown between the two wannabes. Leave it to the Golden Globes to return (from their obligatory hiatus during last year's WGA strike) and destroy the nefariously sycophantic Broadcast Film Critics Association's carefully laid plans for Kate Winslet. Almost as though to deliberately undercut the BFCA's self-appointed, self-important positioning as the most accurate bellweather for Oscar whims, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association responded to the BFCA's highly prescriptive, strategic best supporting actress award for Winslet's arguably leading performance in The Reader by handing Winslet two Golden Globes (one for The Reader, the other for Revolutionary Road, Winslet's official leading performance bid). Aside from raining on poor Anne Hathaway's days after rumors surfaced in the blogosphere that the Globes's website preemptively tipped her as the winner, the HFPA's actions have also essentially hit the reset button on Winslet's campaign, which up until about last week appeared to be barely surviving mostly on the maxim "strength in numbers." Given both of Winslet's performances this year are housed in what we expect to be revealed next Thursday as failed Oscar bait that no one particularly likes, we were originally going to bank on the Academy's resistance to allowing a questionable double bid just because Winslet's presence is considered obligatory (especially after the same hustle netted Cate Blanchett a best actress nomination for fucking Elizabeth: The Golden Age last year). Because her thinking man's Ilsa act in The Reader is at least conceptually riskier than her put-upon dishrag Debbie Downer in Revolutionary Road, we were that close to throwing her by the wayside in this category, especially because there's a clearly superior crypto-leading role in the mix (Rosemarie DeWitt, whose titular character in Rachel Getting Married has been shut out of a lot of races thus far, but we feel anyone who actually watches enough of the film to justify throwing their vote toward frontrunner Anne Hathaway should have no other choice but to recognize DeWitt's equally tricky, equally attention-stealing performance). But given how recent developments have cocked up the BFCA's attempt to engineer a narrative strategy, Winslet should reap the benefit of the doubt, and thus we doubt Amy Adams's utter lack of doubt in Doubt will prove as redoubtable as Viola Davis, Penelope Cruz, and Marisa Tomei, unimpeachable frontrunners all. That clears the first hurdle for soon-to-be seven-time nominee Winslet. Luckily for those that don't necessarily want to know the results of every last Oscar category months in advance, the Oscars are entirely on their own at this point to figure out whether they want to award Winslet twice, once, or not at all.
Will Be Nominated: Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Viola Davis for Doubt, Rosemarie DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married, Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler, and Kate Winslet for The Reader
Should Be Nominated: Rosemarie DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married, Beyonce Knowles for Cadillac Records, Julia Ormand for Kit Kittredge: An American Girl, Ann Savage for My Winnipeg, and Debra Winger for Rachel Getting Married
Oscar Race 2009: Nomination Predictions - Supporting Actor
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 01/14/2009 16:41:33 In: Oscars Comments: 3
Why a person is nominated for a supporting actor or actress Oscar often has a lot to do with riding coattails, which probably explains why it takes so long for awards prognosticators to pin down the nominees in these two categories: It's all about waiting to see which films catch fire at the box office—or on the blogosphere, where most Oscar campaigns seem to be launched nowadays. At the start of the awards season, which begins for some almost as soon as the credits roll on any given year's Oscar ceremony, few of this year's likely nominees seemed to be on anyone's radar. Even Heath Ledger, whose death has been largely attributed to his intense thesping as the Joker in Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight, was making few shortlists many months ago until everyone collectively agreed that a nomination for the late actor would be something more than just a gesture of remorse. Another sure lock, Robert Downey Jr. will receive his first nomination in more than a decade for his role in Ben Stiller's wretched Tropic Thunder in a bid that seems less like a reward than a consolation for there being no room for him in the Best Actor category for his performance in Iron Man. And seeing as Sean Penn and Meryl Streep are locks in the Best Actor and Actress categories, it seems impossible to imagine Josh Brolin and Philip Seymour Hoffman missing out here given how their respective performances in Milk and Doubt are inextricably bound to those of their costars. That leaves one wild spot, and though we're tempted to give it to Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire, to do so would acknowledge that the Screen Actors Guild nailed this lineup when the group announced its nominees several weeks ago, but SAG has accurately forecasted the five nominees in this category exactly once. So, assuming Patel is unable to ride the immense success and popularity of Slumdog to a nomination, that leaves the fifth spot open for either Michael Shannon or Eddie Marsan. Though Shannon has gotten raves across the board for his memorable performance as a mental patient in Revolutionary Road, the buzz surrounding Sam Mendes's prestige picture fizzled out almost as soon as it came out. Months ago, no one was raving as loudly about Marsan's turn as a lunatic driving instructor in Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky, but just as the collective critical community has practically made Sally Hawkins a frontrunner in the Best Actress category, they've also made Marsan something of one here. It'll be a close one, but we say: En Ra Ha!
Will Be Nominated: Josh Brolin for Milk, Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder, Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt, Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight, and Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky
Should Be Nominated: Bill Irwin for Rachel Getting Married, John Malkovich for Burn After Reading, Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky, Danny McBride for Pineapple Express, and Jeffrey Wright for Cadillac Records
Why a person is nominated for a supporting actor or actress Oscar often has a lot to do with riding coattails, which probably explains why it takes so long for awards prognosticators to pin down the nominees in these two categories: It's all about waiting to see which films catch fire at the box office—or on the blogosphere, where most Oscar campaigns seem to be launched nowadays. At the start of the awards season, which begins for some almost as soon as the credits roll on any given year's Oscar ceremony, few of this year's likely nominees seemed to be on anyone's radar. Even Heath Ledger, whose death has been largely attributed to his intense thesping as the Joker in Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight, was making few shortlists many months ago until everyone collectively agreed that a nomination for the late actor would be something more than just a gesture of remorse. Another sure lock, Robert Downey Jr. will receive his first nomination in more than a decade for his role in Ben Stiller's wretched Tropic Thunder in a bid that seems less like a reward than a consolation for there being no room for him in the Best Actor category for his performance in Iron Man. And seeing as Sean Penn and Meryl Streep are locks in the Best Actor and Actress categories, it seems impossible to imagine Josh Brolin and Philip Seymour Hoffman missing out here given how their respective performances in Milk and Doubt are inextricably bound to those of their costars. That leaves one wild spot, and though we're tempted to give it to Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire, to do so would acknowledge that the Screen Actors Guild nailed this lineup when the group announced its nominees several weeks ago, but SAG has accurately forecasted the five nominees in this category exactly once. So, assuming Patel is unable to ride the immense success and popularity of Slumdog to a nomination, that leaves the fifth spot open for either Michael Shannon or Eddie Marsan. Though Shannon has gotten raves across the board for his memorable performance as a mental patient in Revolutionary Road, the buzz surrounding Sam Mendes's prestige picture fizzled out almost as soon as it came out. Months ago, no one was raving as loudly about Marsan's turn as a lunatic driving instructor in Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky, but just as the collective critical community has practically made Sally Hawkins a frontrunner in the Best Actress category, they've also made Marsan something of one here. It'll be a close one, but we say: En Ra Ha!
Will Be Nominated: Josh Brolin for Milk, Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder, Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt, Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight, and Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky
Should Be Nominated: Bill Irwin for Rachel Getting Married, John Malkovich for Burn After Reading, Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky, Danny McBride for Pineapple Express, and Jeffrey Wright for Cadillac Records
2008 Oscar Race: Composite Winner Predictions
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/24/2008 09:42:13 In: Oscars Comments: 14
Picture: No Country for Old Men
Directing: Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood
Actress: Julie Christie for Away from Her
Actor in a Supporting Role: Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men
Actress in a Supporting Role: Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton
Original Screenplay: Juno
Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight
Animated Feature Film: Ratatouille
Documentary Short: Freeheld
Animated Short: My Love
Live Action Short: At Night
Film Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Costume Design: Atonement
Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Score: Atonement
Song: "Falling Slowly," Once
Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Sound Mixing: No Country for Old Men
Visual Effects: Transformers
Picture: No Country for Old Men
Directing: Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood
Actress: Julie Christie for Away from Her
Actor in a Supporting Role: Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men
Actress in a Supporting Role: Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton
Original Screenplay: Juno
Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight
Animated Feature Film: Ratatouille
Documentary Short: Freeheld
Animated Short: My Love
Live Action Short: At Night
Film Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Costume Design: Atonement
Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Score: Atonement
Song: "Falling Slowly," Once
Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Sound Mixing: No Country for Old Men
Visual Effects: Transformers
Oscar Race 2008: Winner Predictions - Picture
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/23/2008 11:53:15 In: Oscars Comments: 5
Though we've kicked Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger's teeth in when it comes to the overall number of correct predictions for the last few years, our track record has unfortunately not extended to the Best Picture category. (Not that Brokeback Mountain helped anyone two years ago; and we can't necessarily be blamed for, after Crash's victory, assuming the worst a year later with Babel's stack of nominations.) Another year, another seemingly soft frontrunner in this category. But if we're going down, we're going down with the rest of the Oscar-fluffing bitches. So who are we to argue that, after recent wins by The Departed and Million Dollar Baby, Oscar voters might not continue feeling all 1970s about themselves, choosing yet another arty, bloody, masterfully directed anti-actioneer? (If Atonement is in the fifth-wheel slot, it's not only because of its lack of a Best Director nod, but also because the template for a Best Picture has perceptibly shifted away from Merchant-Ivory Land, to the delight of IMDB voters everywhere.) That's the hitch, though. This year sees two equally-nominated, equally-beloved, equally-backlashed jocksterpieces duking it out. No Country for Old Men has settled in as the Best Picture-elect, and the Coens hold a far more esteemed cachet than Paul Thomas Anderson, but their film's implosive anti-climax can't just be shrugged off. Atonement and Michael Clayton's nominations suggest there are still some voters who prefer their Best Picture contenders to suck them off until the money shot, preferably if it kills off either a woman or a woman's career aspirations. Say what you will about the "Show me the MILKSHAKE!" corniness of There Will Be Blood's last scene, the movie does decisively not end on a question mark. Neither, for that matter, does Juno, which lamely and writerly pays off on its promise to begin and end with a chair (unfortunately not one wired for 2,000 volts). But if the perhaps more beloved Little Miss Sunshine couldn't hustle its way to a big win last year against an arguably weaker field, don't expect a chick flick to deflate the dickless Oscar's hard-on for manly bluster. We can't be wrong three years in a row. There Will Be Testosterone.
Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Though we've kicked Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger's teeth in when it comes to the overall number of correct predictions for the last few years, our track record has unfortunately not extended to the Best Picture category. (Not that Brokeback Mountain helped anyone two years ago; and we can't necessarily be blamed for, after Crash's victory, assuming the worst a year later with Babel's stack of nominations.) Another year, another seemingly soft frontrunner in this category. But if we're going down, we're going down with the rest of the Oscar-fluffing bitches. So who are we to argue that, after recent wins by The Departed and Million Dollar Baby, Oscar voters might not continue feeling all 1970s about themselves, choosing yet another arty, bloody, masterfully directed anti-actioneer? (If Atonement is in the fifth-wheel slot, it's not only because of its lack of a Best Director nod, but also because the template for a Best Picture has perceptibly shifted away from Merchant-Ivory Land, to the delight of IMDB voters everywhere.) That's the hitch, though. This year sees two equally-nominated, equally-beloved, equally-backlashed jocksterpieces duking it out. No Country for Old Men has settled in as the Best Picture-elect, and the Coens hold a far more esteemed cachet than Paul Thomas Anderson, but their film's implosive anti-climax can't just be shrugged off. Atonement and Michael Clayton's nominations suggest there are still some voters who prefer their Best Picture contenders to suck them off until the money shot, preferably if it kills off either a woman or a woman's career aspirations. Say what you will about the "Show me the MILKSHAKE!" corniness of There Will Be Blood's last scene, the movie does decisively not end on a question mark. Neither, for that matter, does Juno, which lamely and writerly pays off on its promise to begin and end with a chair (unfortunately not one wired for 2,000 volts). But if the perhaps more beloved Little Miss Sunshine couldn't hustle its way to a big win last year against an arguably weaker field, don't expect a chick flick to deflate the dickless Oscar's hard-on for manly bluster. We can't be wrong three years in a row. There Will Be Testosterone.
Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
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