//

2015 Oscar Nomination Predictions

The critics have spoken. The guilds have spoken. The Golden Globes have spoken.

The Grand

The critics have spoken. The guilds have spoken. The Golden Globes have spoken. And here we are feeling the ennui of another three months’ worth of Mondays weighing unusually heavy this year, though it really shouldn’t be. Not all Oscar seasons boast presumptive frontrunners as stubbornly unique and personal as Boyhood or The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which seem at this point like they would’ve cracked the lineup even in the old (and correct) days of five-deep best picture slates we’ll be telling our grandchildren about. Not all Oscar seasons are gifted by the original, cantankerous spirit of the National Society of Film Critics, which is to say the spirit of the group as it was initially conceived, as a staunch, vanguard opponent to staid groupthink. (Try to ignore the remaining instances of “ditto” among their roster of winners and savor everyone flipping their shit over Godard’s surprise victory.) So why aren’t we in a better mood than usual? Probably because we’ve seen it all go south in so many horrifying ways time and time again, and thus this year’s left us feeling a bit like the Witch staring down the “Last Midnight.” Oscars aren’t good, they’re not bad, they’re just nice. We’re not nice, we’re the hitch, and we’re definitely right.

BEST PICTURE

Whiplash

The recent BAFTA nominations certainly offered a sobering reminder of what Oscar races always seem to do at this point in the season when Dumb and Dumber To—The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game—raced to the front of the pack with a downright hostile 10 and nine nominations, respectively. While neither are necessarily the worst biopics to pollute Oscar races in recent years, their endurance throughout the season testifies to a reflexive syndrome among a certain strain of awards-show voters, one sent up nicely by Nick Pinkerton in Film Comment: “These sorts of movies are popular for the same reason that fat tomes of historical fiction by the likes of James Clavell, James A. Michener, and Leon Uris used to be the only fiction that you’d find in houses otherwise devoid of books: there is a significant segment of the American public that thinks this business of making characters and stories up out of thin air is a little suspicious and possibly effeminate.”

In that sense, the only silver lining is that these two films are going to face off against The Grand Budapest Hotel, one of the most delightfully effeminate arguments on behalf of making stories up out of thin air, and Birdman, one of the most suspicious. Those four plus Boyhood would’ve made for a five-slot best picture race virtually anyone could’ve predicted, especially since the controversy erupting over Selma has gone to prove that, yes, people think it’s fine to make stories up out of thin air about certain real people (gay Brits) and not others (LBJ).

Advertisement

Selma remains a safe bet for a nomination, though, since the Academy has yet to prove to us that their current system won’t always result in nine nominations. Whiplash will probably slip into the lineup despite its pitiful box office, and Gone Girl because of its robust one. (Among comparable hits, Unbroken would have to survive its luke-cold reviews, and Into the Woods Oscar’s recent aversion to musicals in the main drag.) While American Sniper seems just square enough to round out the category, for the final slot, we prefer the chances of Nightcrawler, a ridiculous but undeniably beloved late-emerging sleeper. If there’s any movie in the race that’s got word-of-mouth heat behind it, it’s that one.

Will Be Nominated: Birdman, Boyhood, Gone Girl, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Nightcrawler, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Closest Runners-Up: American Sniper, Into the Woods, Mr. Turner

BEST DIRECTOR

Advertisement

Ava DuVernay

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Richard Linklater, and Wes Anderson have all been nominated for either directing or screenwriting Oscars, but not both. This year should change that, and those three are without a doubt the frontrunners in this race. The remaining slots are basically a free for all among at least a half dozen other hopefuls, including contenders you can truly never count out with this branch no matter how well their movies were or weren’t received—namely Mike Leigh and David Fincher. But given González Iñárritu alone hogged up just about all the baton-twirling, firecracker-tossing directorly acrobatics this category can typically handle, odds seem good that the last two slots will break more toward the Tom Hooper side of the fence. (Sorry, Damien Chazelle and Dan Gilroy.) For directing The Imitation Game with maximum taste and minimum personality, Morton Tyldum fits that profile to the letter. And the fact that she’s been forced to answer for her choices more overtly than any other director out there this year means that Selma’s Ana DuVernay is consistently on the forefront of voter’s minds.

Will Be Nominated: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman; Richard Linklater, Boyhood; Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Morton Tyldum, The Imitation Game; Ava DuVernay, Selma

Closest Runners-Up: Clint Eastwood, American Sniper; David Fincher, Gone Girl, Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner; Damien Chazelle Whiplash

BEST ACTRESS

Advertisement

Marion Cotillard

Let’s get one thing clear. This category doesn’t want for legitimate contenders. But to see it described at any given Oscar-prognostication station, Oscar voters are going to have to bend over backward not to include this year’s critical darling: Marion Cotillard. The former winner’s biggest hurdle isn’t that she has two completely acclaimed performances to choose from (buzz seems to have broken decidedly toward her performance in Two Days, One Night over her role in The Immigrant), or that it’s difficult to imagine this category—which found room for a Michel Haneke headliner two years ago—including a performance from a film by the Dardennes. Nope, Cotillard’s biggest threat remains this particular category’s notable resistance toward taking anything other than the easy road, embodied this year by not just Julianne Moore’s ever-reliable cry face, but even more so by Felicity Jones, whose role as Mrs. Stephen Hawking almost single-handedly turned “Supportive Wife” into this year’s “Manic Pixie Dream Girl.” But even we’re hard pressed to say anything happens completely by default, so consider this our one moment of reckless optimism.

Will Be Nominated: Jennifer Aniston, Cake; Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Julianne Moore, Still Alice; Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Closest Runners-Up: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

BEST ACTOR

Advertisement

Jake Gyllenhaal

Now here’s a category that’s legitimately more historically open to at least comparatively risky nominations. So even though there are no fewer than three slots that seem all but rubber-stamped on behalf of biopics (as Pinkerton said, these films almost always “perform well with awards tribunals, particularly in those hard-to-quantify acting categories”), and even possibly a fourth slot depending on how much you’re willing to give in to Birdman’s meta antics surrounding Michael Keaton’s career, there’s every reason in the world to think that fifth slot isn’t going to be lazily filled by Steve Carell’s putty nose. Being a comedian in a “transformative” role didn’t work for Jim Carrey, and the satisfying implosion of the cold and pretentious Foxcatcher’s overall award hopes won’t exactly help Carell out here either. Timothy Spall’s brilliant central performance in Mr. Turner (technically a, gulp, biopic) should’ve been a lock, and one would’ve hoped the momentum behind The Grand Budapest Hotel would’ve made Ralph Fiennes’s charming turn another. But all signs point toward Jake Gyllenhaal’s scary-funny media parasite in Nightcrawler—who manages to make you forget he lost all that weight instead of drawing constant attention to it, Dallas Buyers Club style—cashing this check.

Will Be Nominated: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game; Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; Michael Keaton, Birdman; David Oyelowo, Selma; Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Closest Runners-Up: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher, Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Advertisement

Jessica Chastain

It’s legitimately tough to remember the last time the supporting categories haven’t been a nonstop tag-team rampage, with two people winning literally everything in sight. Well, actually that’s not entirely true, since this year saw Patricia Arquette actually failing to pick up a supporting actress award from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association…because they instead opted to promote her to best actress instead. Maybe the unintended effect of having such obvious winners-elect is that voters are too distracted to cast their nets wide. (Or maybe the nature of the beast is that they never do.) In any case, neither race seems ripe for surprise; there’s really no other explanation for Keira Knightley’s unblemished run of nominations (SAG, BAFTA, Globes) for giving a performance that makes Felicity Jones’S interpretation of wallpaper look nuanced. But at least on the distaff side of things, it’s at least plausible to imagine a few last-minute twists to business as usual: Rene Russo, Tilda Swinton, or maybe even Ida’s Agata Kulesza.

Will Be Nominated: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood; Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game; Emma Stone, Birdman; Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Closest Runners-Up: Rene Russo, Nightcrawler, Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Advertisement

Mark Ruffalo

Beyond the trio of J.K. Simmons, Ethan Hawke, and Edward Norton lies the clear borderline of enthusiasm in this already closed race. Mark Ruffalo looks to be the only one emerging from Foxcatcher unscathed, in part because he’s the only one who got to play a human being. That leaves two veterans duking it out for the last slot, both representing movies that aren’t exactly beloved across the board. Josh Brolin gobbling pot and mouth-harassing a frozen banana in Inherent Vice are among the year’s foremost highlights, but most of his best scenes occur long after one imagines most voters will have already tuned out. Expect Robert Duvall’s Crash-y performance in The Judge to turn that movie into the unequivocal worst to earn a nod in the top eight categories.

Will Be Nominated: Robert Duvall, The Judge; Ethan Hawke, Boyhood; Edward Norton, Birdman; Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher; J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Closest Runners-Up: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Advertisement

Mr. Turner

While it still seems likely that Selma will stave off total meltdown in a number of categories, this category looks to be one of its high-profile misses. As I saw someone point out on a message board, it’s not that the liberties the script takes with history are an insurmountable debit, but rather that the movie itself falls into a dead zone. It’s either the edgiest square contender of the year, or the safest hip contender, and neither position is likely to earn it many first-place votes. And if there’s any Oscar category where edgy trumps staid, it’s this one. So, in addition to the unavoidable trio of Birdman, Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel, expect this to be another tic in Nightcrawler’s column. And because Mike Leigh managed to show up here even when all of eight people saw Another Year in theaters, expect him to do the same with Mr. Turner.

Will Be Nominated: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Mr. Turner, Nightcrawler

Closest Runners-Up: Ida, A Most Violent Year, Selma

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Advertisement

Inherent Vice

Whiplash would’ve been nominated regardless of whether it had been categorized as original (which it almost certainly is) or adapted (which is what the Academy says it is). Happily for Damien Chazelle, he looks a lot more likely for a win over here than he would’ve facing off against Wes Anderson and Richard Linklater. Beyond that and the compulsory nod for The Imitation Game, guessing the remaining nominees in this category is probably the biggest crapshoot among any of the majors. Gone Girl knee-jerked enough think pieces out of defensive menfolk to make it a likely bet, and we’re betting there are enough writers impressed by Paul Thomas Anderson wrestling with Pynchon to earn Inherent Vice at least this one nod. As for that last slot? Take your pick from dreary, drearier, and dreariest.

Will Be Nominated: American Sniper, Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, Whiplash

Closest Runners-Up: The Theory of Everything, Unbroken, Wild

Eric Henderson

Eric Henderson is the web content manager for WCCO-TV. His writing has also appeared in City Pages.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.