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2004 MTV Video Music Awards: Winner Predictions

Oh, MTV, what has happened to you? This year’s list of Video Music Award nominees reads more like a TRL line-up.

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2004 MTV Video Music Awards: Winner Predictions

Oh, MTV, what has happened to you? This year’s list of Video Music Award nominees reads more like a TRL line-up. But what do you expect from a channel that doesn’t even play music videos anymore? In the past year, Fuse (formerly MuchMusic) has bitten a chunk out of MTV’s core audience. And guess what they’re peddling? Music. MTV2, MTV’s supposed all-music-all-the-time offshoot, is snuggled comfortably right next to Fuse on my cable box, but quite honestly, I can’t tell the difference anymore. It’s blocks of bad hip-hop videos vs. blocks of bad hard rock videos. Hmmm…I think I’ll watch Best Week Ever instead. What’s more, MTV is now paying record labels for exclusive rights to videos by certain artists. Looks like another shot in the foot to an industry bent on rendering itself irrelevant. That’s right, kids, you’ll eat what you’re served, and don’t ask any questions. (Now, if only I could stop watching VH1’s I Love the ‘90s I’d sit down and try to remember the last time I saw a video on that channel.) The VMA ceremony is being held in Miami for the first time this year so things should be sufficiently gross. Maybe Prince will make out with Usher and André 3000!

VIDEO OF THE YEAR

OutKast, “Hey Ya!” (Will Win)

Usher featuring Lil Jon & Ludacris, “Yeah!”

Britney Spears, “Toxic”

D12, “My Band”

Jay-Z, “99 Problems” (Should Win)

Sal Cinquemani: I have no idea what D12 is doing here. Does Eminem own shares of MTV or something?

Ed Gonzalez: Black girls screaming for Outkast the way white chicks used to scream for the Beatles? The subversion ends there, and while Outkast are the frontrunners, MTV could go out on a limb and reward “99 Problems,” Mark Romanek’s iconographic representation of black culture, because it is the best video of the year.

SC: It’s hard to believe, but Britney Spears has never won a VMA.

Alexa Camp: She does have a few STDs though.

BEST MALE VIDEO

Usher featuring Lil Jon & Ludacris, “Yeah!” (Will Win)

Jay-Z, “99 Problems”

Justin Timberlake, “Senorita”

Kanye West featuring Syleena Johnson, “All Falls Down” (Should Win)

Prince, “Musicology”

AC: This one is Usher’s to lose.

SC: And hopefully he will. Has MTV even played “Musicology”?

EG: I don’t believe for a second that a prepubescent Prince ever used a vacuum cleaner for a microphone, and since this award should go to a clip that challenges and reinvents the way the male is represented in the music video medium, Kanye West should win (sorry Jay-Z!).

SC: I never really paid attention to Kanye’s video until just now. It’s very good.

AC: Is that Dionne from Clueless?

EG: In the end, a Gen Y-pandering MTV will no doubt give this one to Usher for shaking his bon-bon.

BEST FEMALE VIDEO

Britney Spears, “Toxic” (Will and Should Win)

Beyoncé, “Naughty Girl”

Alicia Keys, “If I Ain’t Got You”

Jessica Simpson, “With You”

Christina Aguilera, “The Voice Within”

SC: Well, isn’t this one giant collection of crap. Ms. Keys was nominated for the wrong video. “You Don’t Know My Name” should have been a lock—and a win.

AC: Seriously. What a bunch of has-beens. The average age in this category is 57. Where’s Hilary Duff?

EG: Though I prefer the Britney video where she kills herself and never makes music again, her “Toxic” is a nifty little video installation companion to Joseph Kahn’s Torque. Xtina’s “The Voice Within” ain’t stripped down, it’s just plain lazy, and no amount of fierceness can save Beyoncé’s “Chicago in En Vogue Minor.”

SC: Yeah, and what’s with all that twitching?

Eric Henderson: She must have just heard that Jessica Simpson song. Same thing happens to me every time I hear it.

AC: Nice of you to join us Eric.

BEST GROUP VIDEO

No Doubt, “It’s My Life”

D12, “My Band” (Will Win)

Hoobastank, “The Reason”

Maroon 5, “This Love” (Should Win)

Good Charlotte, “Hold On”

SC: “Hold On” is a glorified Public Service Announcement.

AC: Yeah, I hate Wilson Phillips.

EG: If they’re solely rewarding a band’s ability to visually interact with each other, No Doubt and Hoobastank should win here. Pity then that their videos are lame hipster wank jobs. As for Good Charlotte’s “Hold On,” it makes me want to kill myself, and that can’t be a good thing. D12 will win because it’s the only video here that’s up for the top prize, but Maroon 5’s “This Love” is the most fuckable clip of the year.

EH: Choke. More like the most rape-worthy.

AC: Does that mean you guys want to fuck the video? That’s kinky. Even for Ed.

BEST RAP VIDEO

Jay-Z, “99 Problems” (Will and Should Win)

D12, “My Band”

50 Cent featuring Snoop Dogg & G-Unit, “P.I.M.P.” Remix

Ludacris, “Stand Up”

Lil Jon & The East Side Boyz featuring Ying Yang Twins, “Get Low”

SC: It’s between Jay-Z and Ludacris, who’s proving himself to be the male Missy when it comes to freaky videomaking.

AC: Speaking of which, where is “Pass That Dutch”?

EG: The real tragedy of this category is not that Missy is noticeably absent but that a video as beautiful as “99 Problems” has to compete with the likes of “P.I.M.P.” and “Get Low.” Morally and aesthetically, these acts represent everything that Jay-Z and Mark Romanek are trying to rectify. Lucky for pop culture, Jay-Z will win this battle.

BEST R&B VIDEO

Usher, “Burn”

Alicia Keys, “If I Ain’t Got You” (Will Win)

Brandy featuring Kanye West, “Talk About Our Love”

Beyoncé, “Me, Myself and I” (Should Win)

R. Kelly, “Step in the Name of Love”

EG: Poor Usher, living all alone in his multi-million dollar pad with no girlfriend to sit on his Oriental decor. Equally ridiculous is Brandy’s color-starved domestic melodrama, R. Kelly’s wholesome boat trip, and Beyoncé’s Midnight Love identity crisis. Because the “You” in Alicia Keys’s video refers both to a guy and a piano, MTV will likely reward the singer with a moon man, ostensibly because they’ll prefer her complex double entendre to Usher’s insatiable fire metaphor.

SC: I actually like “Me, Myself and I.” Four Beyoncés are always better than one.

AC: She should just clone herself and give Kelly and Michelle the boot on the next Destiny’s Child record.

EH: R. Kelly’s dance partner’s great big maternal thighs are the most compelling single element in this line-up. We should all leave him alone, since it’s obvious he prefers women cut from a more mature cloth.

BEST HIP-HOP VIDEO

Outkast, “Hey Ya!” (Will Win)

Black Eyed Peas, “Hey Mama”

Kanye West featuring Syleena Johnson, “All Falls Down” (Should Win)

Nelly featuring P. Diddy and Murphy Lee, “Shake Ya Tailfeather”

Chingy featuring Ludacris and Snoop Dogg, “Holidae In”

SC: Can someone please explain the difference between Best Rap Video and Best Hip-Hop Video? Actually, nevermind. I don’t care.

EH: I think it used to be the line between what soccer moms will and won’t tolerate on the SUV ride home, but I’m not sure anymore.

EG: Yeah, I can’t tell the difference either. All I know is that Nelly needs to hop on the next train out of the Latin ghetto and take Justin Timberlake with him.

AC: “Shake Ya Tailfeather” is like a dance interpretation of our music video forum.

BEST DANCE VIDEO

Usher featuring Lil Jon & Ludacris, “Yeah!” (Will Win)

Black Eyed Peas, “Hey Mama”

Beyoncé, “Naughty Girl”

Britney Spears, “Toxic”

Missy Elliott, “I’m Really Hot” (Should Win)

EG: Do they vote for the video with the best dancing or do they vote for the video that makes you want to dance the most? Missy. Missy. Missy. But since she doesn’t play on KTU, or isn’t mixed by DJ Scribble for his Jersey Shore contingency, I suppose this one is Usher’s to lose.

AC: Are any of these actually “dance” videos? Maybe “Toxic.” I guess that should win by default.

SC: “Toxic” embodies everything that was wrong with music videos from 1999 until 2003: too much greenscreen and too much Joseph Kahn.

AC: And not enough Taylor Dayne.

EH: The house renaissance is truly over. (Sob.)

BEST ROCK VIDEO

Jet, “Are You Gonna Be My Girl” (Should Win)

The Darkness, “I Believe in a Thing Called Love” (Will Win)

Hoobastank, “The Reason”

Evanescence, “My Immortal”

Linkin Park, “Breaking the Habit”

SC: Jet’s video is simple and inventive. That’s my pick.

EH: Why do I get the feeling Justin Hawkins of The Darkness got plastic surgery with the intention of making himself uglier? I think their mission is to put the “ick” back into dick rock.

AC: I just don’t get The Darkness. Am I missing something?

EG: After seeing The Darkness video, I somehow can’t get the image of Tiny Tim touching himself out of my head. Why would MTV want to reward a provocation like this?

BEST POP VIDEO

Britney Spears, “Toxic” (Will Win)

Jessica Simpson, “With You”

Hilary Duff, “Come Clean”

No Doubt, “It’s My Life” (Should Win)

Avril Lavigne, “Don’t Tell Me”

SC: This is Britney’s to lose. And hopefully she’ll lose it to No Doubt.

AC: Just like her virginity.

EH: Best Popped Cherry.

BEST NEW ARTIST

Jet, “Are You Gonna Be My Girl”

Maroon 5, “This Love”

JoJo, “Leave (Get Out)”

Kanye West featuring Syleena Johnson, “All Falls Down” (Will and Should Win)

Yellowcard, “Ocean Avenue”

The Darkness, “I Believe in a Thing Called Love”

AC: You know, even though I don’t like The Darkness, I love Michael Bolton. Does that count?

SC: I think the director of “Ocean Avenue” saw Run Lola Run and Memento a few too many times…and then he got high…and then he made a music video…and then it got nominated for two VMAs.

EG: And then JoJo ate Hilary Duff. God, how many movies have I seen with that monster in it?

EH: The JoJo video is precious. Little tyke thinks she’s accrued the sort of life experience that would give her head-jerks and hand-to-the-sky testifying some measure of depth. If only Dakota Fanning had made a video, there’d be a real contest.

MTV2 AWARD

Yeah Yeah Yeahs, “Maps” (Will Win)

Elephant Man, “Pon De River”

Yellowcard, “Ocean Avenue”

Twista featuring Kanye West and Jamie Foxx, “Slow Jamz”

Franz Ferdinand, “Take Me Out”

Modest Mouse, “Float On” (Should Win)

SC: What’s the purpose of this category?

EG: Has anyone noticed that Franz Ferdinand’s “Take Me Out” is a video interpretation of the Pixies’ Doolittle album cover? Regardless: I know that “Maps” is the best song in the category, but Modest Mouse’s dreamy “Float On” has the cute cutout sheep.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY IN A VIDEO

Usher featuring Lil Jon & Ludacris, “Yeah!” (Will Win)

Black Eyed Peas, “Hey Mama”

Missy Elliott, “I’m Really Hot” (Should Win)

Beyoncé, “Naughty Girl”

Sean Paul, “Like Glue”

AC: Usher should win for “Yeah!”

SC: And Michael Jackson should accept the award.

EG: Yeah.

BREAKTHROUGH VIDEO

Franz Ferdinand, “Take Me Out”

Modest Mouse, “Float On”

Kanye West featuring Syleena Johnson, “All Falls Down”

New Found Glory, “All Downhill From Here”

White Stripes, “The Hardest Button to Button” (Will and Should Win)

Steriogram, “Walkie Talkie Man”

SC: “Take Me Out,” “Float On,” and “All Downhill From Here” will cancel each other out, giving the White Stripes a worthy win. They’re proving themselves to be quite the little video pioneers, aren’t they?

EG: It looks like it took Michel Gondry 20 years to make “Walkie Talkie Man,” but his musical math equation for the White Stripes’ less-is-more “The Hardest Button to Button” blows my mind every single time I see it.

EH: So does this category. Really, is there anyone shallow enough to not realize that MTV is straining for credibility here by tabbing the truly buzzworthy clips, but selling out to superstardom in the “Video of the Year” category.

BEST DIRECTION IN A VIDEO

Jay-Z, “99 Problems” (Director: Mark Romanek) (Will and Should Win)

No Doubt, “It’s My Life” (Director: David LaChapelle)

Outkast, “Hey Ya!” (Director: Bryan Barber)

The White Stripes, “The Hardest Button to Button” (Director: Michel Gondry)

Steriogram, “Walkie Talkie Man” (Director: Michel Gondry)

EG: Michel Gondry’s videos are those of a stoned algebra teacher. Mark Romanek’s videos are products of a sober, socially conscious poet and iconographer. I’m not high right now so I’m leaning toward the latter.

SC: If Johnny Cash’s “Hurt” can get nominated you’d think Loretta Lynn’s “Miss Being Mrs.” would get some recognition.

EH: The Gondry clips will probably cancel each other out, and LaChapelle’s incandescent starfuckery is getting a little bit tired.

BEST SPECIAL EFFECTS IN A VIDEO

Incubus, “Megalomaniac” (Will Win)

Outkast, “Hey Ya!”

The White Stripes, “The Hardest Button to Button”

Modest Mouse, “Float On”

Steriogram, “Walkie Talkie Man” (Should Win)

SC: Can the White Stripes really win here? Is it really special effects or is it just great editing?

EH: It’s amazing that videos like “The Hardest Button to Button” and “Walkie Talkie Man” can grab tech nominations by the score but still come up clippa non grata in the spotlight categories.

EG: “Walkie Talkie Man” should win.

BEST ART DIRECTION IN A VIDEO

Steriogram, “Walkie Talkie Man”

No Doubt, “It’s My Life” (Will Win)

Outkast, “Hey Ya!”

Alicia Keys, “You Don’t Know My Name”

Yeah Yeah Yeahs, “Maps” (Should Win)

EG: Again, “Walkie Talkie Man.”

SC: I’d be content to see either Alicia Keys or the Yeah Yeah Yeahs take this one home.

AC: Has anyone else noticed how popular the word “yeah” is this year?

BEST EDITING IN A VIDEO

Jay-Z, “99 Problems” (Should Win)

The White Stripes, “The Hardest Button to Button” (Will Win)

Jet, “Are You Gonna Be My Girl”

Simple Plan, “Perfect”

Yeah Yeah Yeahs, “Maps”

SC: Now this is what a major category ought to look like. “The Hardest Button to Button” is the obvious choice here, but something subtle (“99 Problems”) or even subtler yet (“Maps”) could steal.

EG: Romanek’s photo log for Jay-Z’s “99 Problems” wouldn’t have the effect that it does if the pages didn’t turn when they do.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY VIDEO

Jay-Z, “99 Problems” (Will and Should Win)

No Doubt, “It’s My Life”

Beyoncé, “Naughty Girl”

Yeah Yeah Yeahs, “Maps”

Christina Aguilera, “The Voice Within”

SC: It’s between “99 Problems” and “Maps,” two of the best videos of the year.

EG: If the folks at MTV don’t check off “99 Problems” then they’re just blind.

SC: Who votes for this shit anyway?

EH: I sure wouldn’t.

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2019 Tony Nominations: Hadestown and Ain’t Too Proud Lead Field

Both shows were joined in the Best Musical category by Beetlejuice, The Prom, and Tootsie.

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Hadestown
Photo: Matthew Murphy

Nominations for the 73rd Tony Awards were announced this morning, with CBS This Morning co-host Gayle King and actors Bebe Neuwirth and Brandon Victor Dixon revealing the nominees in the top eight categories. Leading the pack with 14 nominations Hadestown, followed by Ain’t Too Proud—The Life of the Temptations with 12. Both shows were joined in the Best Musical category by Beetlejuice, The Prom, and Tootsie.

See below for a full list of the nominations.

Best Musical
Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of The Temptations
Beetlejuice
Hadestown
The Prom
Tootsie

Best Play
Choir Boy by Tarell
The Ferryman
Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus
Ink
What the Constitution Means to Me

Best Revival of a Play
Arthur Miller’s All My Sons
The Boys in the Band
Burn This
Torch Song
The Waverly Gallery

Best Revival of a Musical
Kiss Me, Kate
Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Oklahoma!

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Paddy Considine, The Ferryman
Bryan Cranston, Network
Jeff Daniels, To Kill a Mockingbird
Adam Driver, Burn This
Jeremy Pope, Choir Boy

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Annette Bening, Arthur Miller’s All My Sons
Laura Donnelly, The Ferryman
Elaine May, The Waverly Gallery
Janet McTeer, Bernhardt/Hamlet
Laurie Metcalf, Hillary and Clinton
Heidi Schreck, What the Constitution Means to Me

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Brooks Ashmanskas, The Prom
Derrick Baskin, Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations
Alex Brightman, Beetlejuice
Damon Daunno, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Oklahoma!
Santino Fontana, Tootsie

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Stephanie J. Block, The Cher Show
Caitlin Kinnunen, The Prom
Beth Leavel, The Prom
Eva Noblezada, Hadestown
Kelli O’Hara, Kiss Me, Kate

Best Book of a Musical
Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations, Dominique Morisseau
Beetlejuice, Scott Brown and Anthony King
Hadestown, Anaïs Mitchell
The Prom, Bob Martin & Chad Beguelin
Tootsie, Robert Horn

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Be More Chill, Joe Iconis
Beetlejuice, Eddie Perfect
Hadestown, Anaïs Mitchell
The Prom, Matthew Sklar and Chad Beguelin
To Kill a Mockingbird, Adam Guettel
Tootsie, David Yazbek

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Bertie Carvel, Ink
Robin De Jesús, The Boys in the Band
Gideon Glick, To Kill a Mockingbird
Brandon Uranowitz, Burn This
Benjamin Walker, Arthur Miller’s All My Sons

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Fionnula Flanagan, The Ferryman
Celia Keenan-Bolger, To Kill a Mockingbird
Kristine Nielsen, Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus
Julie White, Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus
Ruth Wilson, King Lear

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
André De Shields, Hadestown
Andy Grotelueschen, Tootsie
Patrick Page, Hadestown
Jeremy Pope, Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations
Ephraim Sykes, Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Lilli Cooper, Tootsie
Amber Gray, Hadestown
Sarah Stiles, Tootsie
Ali Stroker, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Oklahoma!
Mary Testa, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Oklahoma!

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Miriam Buether, To Kill a Mockingbird
Bunny Christie, Ink
Rob Howell, The Ferryman
Santo Loquasto, Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus
Jan Versweyveld, Network

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Robert Brill and Peter Nigrini, Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations
Peter England, King Kong
Rachel Hauck, Hadestown
Laura Jellinek, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Oklahoma!
David Korins, Beetlejuice

Best Costume Design of a Play
Rob Howell, The Ferryman
Toni-Leslie James, Bernhardt/Hamlet
Clint Ramos, Torch Song
Ann Roth, Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus
Ann Roth, To Kill a Mockingbird

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Michael Krass, Hadestown
William Ivey Long, Beetlejuice
William Ivey Long, Tootsie
Bob Mackie, The Cher Show
Paul Tazewell, Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Neil Austin, Ink
Jules Fisher + Peggy Eisenhauer, Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus
Peter Mumford, The Ferryman
Jennifer Tipton, To Kill a Mockingbird
Jan Versweyveld and Tal Yarden, Network

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Kevin Adams, The Cher Show
Howell Binkley, Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations
Bradley King, Hadestown
Peter Mumford, King Kong
Kenneth Posner and Peter Nigrini, Beetlejuice

Best Sound Design of a Play
Adam Cork, Ink
Scott Lehrer, To Kill a Mockingbird
Fitz Patton, Choir Boy
Nick Powell, The Ferryman
Eric Sleichim, Network

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Peter Hylenski, Beetlejuice
Peter Hylenski, King Kong
Steve Canyon Kennedy, Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations
Drew Levy, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Oklahoma!
Nevin Steinberg and Jessica Paz, Hadestown

Best Direction of a Play
Rupert Goold, Ink
Sam Mendes, The Ferryman
Bartlett Sher, To Kill a Mockingbird
Ivo van Hove, Network
George C. Wolfe, Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus

Best Direction of a Musical
Rachel Chavkin, Hadestown
Scott Ellis, Tootsie
Daniel Fish, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Oklahoma!
Des McAnuff, Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations
Casey Nicholaw, The Prom

Best Choreography
Camille A. Brown, Choir Boy
Warren Carlyle, Kiss Me, Kate
Denis Jones, Tootsie
David Neumann, Hadestown
Sergio Trujillo, Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations

Best Orchestrations
Michael Chorney and Todd Sickafoose, Hadestown
Simon Hale, Tootsie
Larry Hochman, Kiss Me, Kate
Daniel Kluger, Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Oklahoma!
Harold Wheeler, Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations

Recipients of Awards and Honors in Non-competitive Categories

Special Tony Awards for Lifetime Achievement in the Theatre
Terrence McNally
Rosemary Harris
Harold Wheeler

Special Tony Awards
Jason Michael Webb
Sonny Tilders
Marin Mazzie

Regional Theatre Tony Award
TheatreWorks Silicon Valley

Isabelle Stevenson Tony Award
Judith Light

Tony Honors for Excellence in the Theatre
Broadway Inspirational Voices
Peter Entin
Joseph Blakely Forbes
FDNY Engine 54

Tony Nominations by Production
Hadestown – 14
Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of the Temptations – 12
Tootsie – 11
The Ferryman – 9
To Kill a Mockingbird – 9
Beetlejuice – 8
Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Oklahoma! – 8
Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus – 7
The Prom – 7
Ink – 6
Network – 5
Choir Boy – 4
Kiss Me, Kate – 4
Arthur Miller’s All My Sons – 3
Burn This – 3
The Cher Show – 3
King Kong – 3
Bernhardt/Hamlet – 2
The Boys in the Band – 2
Torch Song – 2
The Waverly Gallery – 2
What the Constitution Means to Me – 2
Be More Chill – 1
Hillary and Clinton – 1
King Lear – 1

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Oscars 2019: Complete Winners List

The 91st Academy Awards are now behind us, and the telecast told us just about nothing that we don’t already know about AMPAS.

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Green Book
Photo: Universal Pictures

The 91st Academy Awards are now behind us, and the telecast told us just about nothing that we don’t already know about AMPAS. Which isn’t to say that the ceremony wasn’t without its surprises. For one, whoever decided to capture Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper’s performance of “Shallow” from A Star Is Born in one single take that would end with the pair sitting side by side, rapt in each other and framed in Bergman-esque repose, should hereby be responsible for every Oscar ceremony moving forward.

For some, though not us, Green Book’s victory for best picture came as surprise. As our own Eric Henderson put it in his prediction: “Those attacking the film from every conceivable angle have also ignored the one that matters to most people: the pleasure principle. Can anyone blame Hollywood for getting its back up on behalf of a laughably old-fashioned but seamlessly mounted road movie-cum-buddy pic that reassures people that the world they’re leaving is better than the one they found? That’s, as they say, the future that liberals and Oscar want.”

In the end, the awards went down more or less as expected, with the only real shock of the evening being Oliva Colman’s stunning upset over Glenn Close in the best actress race. (Glenn, we hope you are on the phone right now trying to get that Sunset Boulevard remake to finally happen.) Black Panther proved more indomitable than expected, winning in three categories (none of which we predicted), and Free Solo pulling a victory over RBG that was the first big sign of the evening that, then and now, AMPAS members vote above all else with their guts.

See below for the full list of winners from the 2019 Oscars.

Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book (WINNER)
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Director
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (WINNER)
Adam McKay, Vice

Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (WINNER)
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite (WINNER)
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book (WINNER)
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (WINNER)
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee (WINNER)
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters

Original Screenplay
The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly (WINNER)
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay

Foreign Language Film
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico) (WINNER)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Documentary Feature
Free Solo, Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi (WINNER)
Hale County This Morning, This Evening, RaMell Ross
Minding the Gap, Bing Liu
Of Fathers and Sons, Talal Derki
RBG, Betsy West and Julie Cohen

Animated Feature
Incredibles 2, Brad Bird
Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson
Mirai, Mamoru Hosoda
Ralph Breaks the Internet, Rich Moore and Phil Johnston
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, and Rodney Rothman (WINNER)

Cinematography
Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón (WINNER)
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman, Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman (WINNER)
Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito
The Favourite, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Vice, Hank Corwin

Production Design
Black Panther, Hannah Beachler (WINNER)
First Man, Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas
The Favourite, Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
Mary Poppins Returns, John Myhre and Gordon Sim
Roma, Eugenio Caballero and Bárbara Enrı́quez

Original Score
BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson (WINNER)
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman

Original Song
All The Stars from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
I’ll Fight from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
The Place Where Lost Things Go from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
Shallow from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice (WINNER)
When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter (WINNER)
The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne

Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War, Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, and Daniel Sudick
Christopher Robin, Chris Lawrence, Mike Eames, Theo Jones, and Chris Corbould
First Man, Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, and J.D. Schwalm (WINNER)
Ready Player One, Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, and David Shirk
Solo: A Star Wars Story, Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, and Dominic Tuohy

Sound Mixing
Black Panther, Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, and Peter Devlin
Bohemian Rhapsody, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, and John Casali (WINNER)
First Man, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee, and Mary H. Ellis
Roma, Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, and José Antonio García
A Star Is Born, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, and Steve Morrow

Sound Editing
Black Panther, Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst (WINNER)
First Man, Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
Roma, Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay

Makeup and Hairstyling
Border, Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
Mary Queen of Scots, Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, and Jessica Brooks
Vice, Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, and Patricia Dehaney (WINNER)

Live Action Short Film
Detainment, Vincent Lambe
Fauve, Jeremy Comte
Marguerite, Marianne Farley
Mother, Rodrigo Sorogoyen
Skin, Guy Nattiv (WINNER)

Documentary Short Subject
Black Sheep, Ed Perkins
End Game, Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
Lifeboat, Skye Fitzgerald
A Night at the Garden, Marshall Curry
Period. End of Sentence., Rayka Zehtabchi (WINNER)

Animated Short
Animal Behaviour, Alison Snowden and David Fine
Bao, Domee Shi (WINNER)
Late Afternoon, Louise Bagnall
One Small Step, Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas
Weekends, Trevor Jimenez

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Oscars 2019: Who Will Win? Who Should Win? Our Final Predictions

No one is okay with the Academy Awards the way they are, and everyone seems sure that they know how to fix them.

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Roma
Photo: Netflix

No one is okay with the Academy Awards the way they are, and everyone seems sure that they know how to fix them. Cut out the montages, bring back honorary award presentations, give stunt performers their own category, let ranked-choice voting determine every category and not just best picture, overhaul the membership ranks, hold the event before the guilds spoil the surprise, find a host with the magic demographic-spanning mojo necessary to double the show’s recent audience pools, nominate bigger hits, nominate only hits. Across the last 24 days, Ed Gonzalez and I have mulled over the academy’s existential crisis and how it’s polluted this year’s Oscar race so thoroughly that it feels eerily similar to the 2016 election cycle all over again. We’re spent, and while we don’t know if we have it in us to do this next year, we just might give it another go if Oscar proves us wrong on Sunday in more than just one category.

Below are our final Oscar predictions. Want more? Click on the individual articles for our justifications and more, including who we think should win in all 24 categories.

Picture: Green Book
Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Original Screenplay: Green Book
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Foreign Language: Roma
Documentary Feature: RBG
Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence
Animated Short: Weekends
Live Action Short: Skin
Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Production Design: The Favourite
Cinematography: Cold War
Costume Design: The Favourite
Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice
Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Song: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born
Sound Editing: First Man
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Visual Effects: First Man

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Oscar 2019 Winner Predictions: Picture

The industry’s existential crisis has polluted this race so thoroughly that it feels eerily similar to the 2016 election cycle all over again.

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Green Book
Photo: Universal Pictures

“I’m hyperventilating a little. If I fall over pick me up because I’ve got something to say,” deadpanned Frances McDormand upon winning her best actress Oscar last year. From her lips to Hollywood’s ears. No one is okay with the Academy Awards the way they are, and everyone seems sure that they know how to fix them. Cut out the montages, bring back honorary award presentations, give stunt performers their own category, let ranked-choice voting determine every category and not just best picture, overhaul the membership ranks, hold the event before the guilds spoil the surprise, find a host with the magic demographic-spanning mojo necessary to double the show’s recent audience pools, nominate bigger hits, nominate only hits.

But first, as McDormand herself called for during her speech, “a moment of perspective.” A crop of articles have popped up over the last two weeks looking back at the brutal showdown between Saving Private Ryan and Shakespeare In Love at the 1999 Academy Awards, when Harvey Weinstein was at the height of his nefarious powers. Every retrospective piece accepts as common wisdom that it was probably the most obnoxious awards season in history, one that indeed set the stage for every grinding assault we’ve paid witness to ever since. But did anyone two decades ago have to endure dozens of weekly Oscar podcasters and hundreds of underpaid web writers musing, “What do the Academy Awards want to be moving forward, exactly? Who should voters represent in this fractured media environment, exactly?” How much whiskey we can safely use to wash down our Lexapro, exactly?

Amid the fox-in-a-henhouse milieu of ceaseless moral outrage serving as this awards season’s backdrop, and amid the self-obsessed entertainers now wrestling with the idea that they now have to be “content providers,” all anyone seems concerned about is what an Oscar means in the future, and whether next year’s versions of Black Panther and Bryan Singer’s Bohemian Rhapsody have a seat at the table. What everyone’s forgetting is what the Oscars have always been. In other words, the industry’s existential crisis has polluted this race so thoroughly that it feels eerily similar to the 2016 election cycle all over again, and Oscar’s clearly splintered voting blocs may become ground zero for a Make the Academy Great Again watershed.

In 1956, the Oscars took a turn toward small, quotidian, neo-realish movies, awarding Marty the top prize. The correction was swift and sure the following year, with a full slate of elephantine epics underlining the movie industry’s intimidation at the new threat of television. Moonlight’s shocking triumph two years ago was similarly answered by the safe, whimsical The Shape of Water, a choice that reaffirmed the academy’s commitment to politically innocuous liberalism in artistically conservative digs. Call us cynical, but we know which of the last couple go-arounds feels like the real academy. Which is why so many are banking on the formally dazzling humanism of Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma and so few on the vital, merciless fury of Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman.

And even if we give the benefit of the doubt to the academy’s new members, there’s that righteous, reactionary fervor in the air against those attempting to “cancel” Green Book. Those attacking the film from every conceivable angle have also ignored the one that matters to most people: the pleasure principle. Can anyone blame Hollywood for getting its back up on behalf of a laughably old-fashioned but seamlessly mounted road movie-cum-buddy pic that reassures people that the world they’re leaving is better than the one they found? That’s, as they say, the future that liberals and Oscar want.

Will Win: Green Book

Could Win: Roma or BlacKkKlansman

Should Win: BlacKkKlansman

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Awards

Oscar 2019 Winner Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

After walking back almost all of its bad decisions ahead of this year’s Oscars, there’s no way AMPAS isn’t going to do the right thing here.

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BlacKkKlansman
Photo: Focus Features

Eric and I have done a good job this year of only selectively stealing each other’s behind-the-scenes jokes. We have, though, not been polite about stepping on each other’s toes in other ways. Okay, maybe just Eric, who in his impeccable take on the original screenplay free-for-all detailed how the guilds this year have almost willfully gone out of their way to “not tip the Oscar race too clearly toward any one film.” Case in point: Can You Ever Forgive Me? winning the WGA’s adapted screenplay trophy over presumed Oscar frontrunner BlacKkKlansman. A glitch in the matrix? We think so. Eric and I are still in agreement that the race for best picture this year is pretty wide open, though maybe a little less so in the wake of what seemed like an easy win for the Spike Lee joint. Nevertheless, we all know that there’s no Oscar narrative more powerful than “it’s about goddamn time,” and it was so powerful this year that even the diversity-challenged BAFTAs got the memo, giving their adapted screenplay prize to Lee, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, and Kevin Willmott. To bamboozle Lee at this point would, admittedly, be so very 2019, but given that it’s walked back almost all of its bad decisions ahead of this year’s Oscars, there’s no way AMPAS isn’t going to do the right thing.

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Could Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Should Win: BlacKkKlansman

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Awards

Oscar 2019 Winner Predictions: Original Screenplay

This season, Hollywood is invested in celebrating the films they love while dodging the cultural bullets coming at them from every angle.

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Green Book
Photo: Universal Pictures

You know, if it weren’t for the show’s producers effectively and repeatedly saying everything about the Academy Awards is terrible and needs to be changed, and the year’s top-tier contenders inadvertently confirming their claims, this would’ve been a comparatively fun and suspenseful Oscar season. None of us who follow the Academy Awards expect great films to win; we just hope the marathon of precursors don’t turn into a Groundhog Day-style rinse and repeat for the same film, ad nauseam.

On that score, mission accomplished. The guilds have been handing their awards out this season as though they met beforehand and assigned each voting body a different title from Oscar’s best picture list so as not to tip the Oscar race too clearly toward any one film. SAG? Black Panther. PGA? Green Book. DGA? Roma. ASC? Cold War. ACE? Bryan Singer’s Bohemian Rhapsody. Even awards-season kryptonite A Star Is Born got an award for contemporary makeup from the MUAHS. (That’s the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild, not the sound Lady Gaga fans have been making ever since A Star Is Born’s teaser trailer dropped last year.)

Not to be outdone, the Writers Guild of America announced their winners last weekend, and not only did presumed adapted screenplay frontrunner BlacKkKlansman wind up stymied by Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but the original screenplay prize went to Eighth Grade, which wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar. Bo Burnham twisted the knife into AMPAS during his acceptance speech: “To the other nominees in the category, have fun at the Oscars, losers!” In both his sarcasm and his surprise, it’s safe to say he speaks on behalf of us all.

As is always the case, WGA’s narrow eligibility rules kept a presumed favorite, The Favourite, out of this crucial trial heat. But as the balloting period comes to a close, the question remains just how much enthusiasm or affection voters have for either of the two films with the most nominations (Roma being the other). As a recent “can’t we all just get along” appeal by Time’s Stephanie Zacharek illustrates, the thing Hollywood is most invested in this season involves bending over backward, Matrix-style, to celebrate the films they love and still dodge the cultural bullets coming at them from every angle.

Maybe it’s just tunnel vision from the cultural vacuum Oscar voters all-too-understandably would prefer to live in this year, but doesn’t it seem like The Favourite’s tastefully ribald peppering of posh-accented C-words would be no match for the steady litany of neo-Archie Bunkerisms spewing from Viggo Mortensen’s crooked mouth? Especially with First Reformed’s Paul Schrader siphoning votes from among the academy’s presumably more vanguard new recruits? We’ll fold our words in half and eat them whole if we’re wrong, but Oscar’s old guard, unlike John Wayne, is still alive and, well, pissed.

Will Win: Green Book

Could Win: The Favourite

Should Win: First Reformed

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Oscar 2019 Winner Predictions: Sound Mixing

For appealing to voters’ nostalgia for drunken karaoke nights of yore, one film has the upper hand here.

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20th Century Fox
Photo: 20th Century Fox

Given what Eric wrote about the sound editing category yesterday, it now behooves me to not beat around the bush here. Also, it’s my birthday, and there are better things for me to do today than count all the ways that Eric and I talk ourselves out of correct guesses in the two sound categories, as well as step on each other’s toes throughout the entirety of our Oscar-prediction cycle. In short, it’s very noisy. Which is how Oscar likes it when it comes to sound, though maybe not as much the case with sound mixing, where the spoils quite often go to best picture nominees that also happen to be musicals (Les Misérables) or musical-adjacent (Whiplash). Only two films fit that bill this year, and since 2019 is already making a concerted effort to top 2018 as the worst year ever, there’s no reason to believe that the scarcely fat-bottomed mixing of Bryan Singer’s Bohemian Rhapsody will take this in a walk, for appealing to voters’ nostalgia for drunken karaoke nights of yore.

Will Win: Bryan Singer’s Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: A Star Is Born

Should Win: First Man

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Oscar 2019 Winner Predictions: Sound Editing

If it were biologically possible to do so, both Ed and I would happily switch places with A Quiet Place’s Emily Blunt.

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First Man
Photo: Universal Pictures

If it were biologically possible to do so, both Ed and I would happily switch places with A Quiet Place’s Emily Blunt, because we’d much rather give birth in a tub while surrounded by murderous blind creatures than have to once again write our predictions for the sound categories. As adamant as we’ve been that the Academy owes it to the nominees to air every category, which they agreed to after an extended “just kidding,” it might have given us pause had the sound categories been among the four demoted by Oscar. But no, we must now endure our annual bout of penance, aware of the fact that actually knowing what the difference is between sound editing and sound mixing is almost a liability. In other words, we’ve talked ourselves out of correct guesses too many times, doubled down on the same movie taking both categories to hedge our bets too many times, and watched as the two categories split in the opposite way we expected too many times. So, as in A Quiet Place, the less said, the better. And while that film’s soundscapes are as unique and noisy as this category seems to prefer, First Man’s real-word gravitas and cacophonous Agena spin sequence should prevail.

Will Win: First Man

Could Win: A Quiet Place

Should Win: First Man

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Oscar 2019 Winner Predictions: Actress

Sometimes it’s important to just step back and pay your respects to a remarkable actress.

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Glenn Close
Photo: Sony Pictures Classics

Sometimes it’s important to just step back and pay your respects to a remarkable actress for having given a performance that, while not your, um, favourite nominated one, is still deserving of an Oscar victory lap. Now, if only others felt the same. Very early on in the awards season, there was already a sense that this award could become a career-achievement coronation for the six-time losing Glenn Close—and that people were going to have a problem squaring that with the fact that her Oscar would be tied to a film perceived to be a piffle. That’s not an inaccurate perception, but it’s difficult to remember a time when critics have used that as an excuse to not do their homework.

In short, have you seen The Wife? Indeed, until the awards-media system’s attention shifted full time into covering AMPAS’s A Series of Unfortunate Oscar Decisions, it seemed as if every day brought us a new article by some pundit about the Oscar race in which it strangely sounded as if the The Wife was still a blind spot for the writer. Which is shame, because Close gives good face throughout the film. Certainly, few Oscar-nominated films this year are as absurd as The Wife, but I’ll do battle with anyone who thinks Close is getting by on her legend alone. Close’s triumph is recognizing The Wife’s inherent ludicrousness and elevating it, and without condescension, with a kabuki-like verve that seeks to speak to the experiences of all women who’ve been oppressed by their men. It’s a turn worthy of Norma Desmond.

Today, the most reliable Oscar narrative is the overdue performer. And if you take stock in that narrative, then you’ll understand why I texted Eric, my fellow Oscar guru, the following on the morning of November 29: “I think Close is going to Still Alice at the Oscars.” After that morning, when the New York Film Critics Circle officially kick-started the Oscar season (and gave their award for best actress to Regina Hall in Support the Girls), no actress ran the table with the critics and guilds, but most of the cards that matter did fall into place for Close, and much as they did for Julianne Moore ahead of her winning the Oscar for Still Alice.

This was a done deal when Close won the Golden Globe, received a standing ovation, and gave the night’s most impassioned speech, immediately after which Eric conceded that my instincts had been right. Of course, that was no doubt easy for him to admit given that, by that point, the oxygen had already seeped out of A Star Is Born’s awards campaign, leaving only Olivia Colman in Close’s way. Colman has worked the campaign trail in spectacular ways, giving speeches that have been every bit as droll as this, but in the end, she doesn’t have the SAG, and as bold and subversive as her performance certainly is, it isn’t sufficiently big enough to convince enough AMPAS members that Close should continue waiting for Oscar.

Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Could Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Should Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

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Oscar 2019 Winner Predictions: Film Editing

Sigh, can we just edit this whole Oscar season from our memories?

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Bohemian Rhapsody
Photo: 20th Century Fox

Sigh, can we just edit this whole Oscar season from our memories? AMPAS has officially brought more queens back from the brink than this year’s season of RuPaul’s Drag Race All-Stars. Now that the academy has reneged on its plans to snip four categories from the live Oscar telecast, after first attempting damage control and assuring members that it will still run those four awards as not-so-instant replays in edited-down form later on in the show, we can once again turn our attention to the other editing that’s so vexed Film Twitter this Oscar season. We yield the floor to Twitter user Pramit Chatterjee:

Very fuck! The academy would’ve been shooting itself in the foot by not airing what’s starting to feel like one of this year’s most competitive Oscar categories—a category that seems like it’s at the center of ground zero for the voters who, as a fresh New York Times survey of anonymous Oscar ballots confirms, are as unashamedly entertained by a blockbuster that critics called utterly worthless as they are feeling vengeful against those who would dare call a film they loved racist. Interestingly enough, the New York Times’s panel of voters seems palpably aware that Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman is the nominee this year that’s going to go down in history as the “right thing” they’ll be embarrassed for not “doing.” No arguments from this corner. Lee’s film is narratively propulsive and knotty in ways that ought to translate into a no-brainer win here. (My cohort Ed recently mused that he’d give the film the Oscar just for the energy it displays cutting back and forth during phone conversations.)

We’re glad that the academy walked back its decision to not honor two of the most crucial elements of the medium (editing and cinematography) on the live Oscar telecast, but what we’re left with is the dawning horror that the formless flailing exemplified by the clip above might actually win this damned award. Guy Lodge sarcastically mused on the upside of Pramit’s incredulous tweet, “I’ve never seen so many people on Twitter discussing the art of film editing before,” and honestly, it does feel like Bryan Singer’s Bohemian Rhapsody getting publicly dog-walked like this stands to teach baby cinephiles-in-training the language of the cut as well as any of the myriad montages the show producers intended on airing in lieu of, you know, actually awarding craftspeople. But only a fraction of the voting body has to feel sympathy for John Ottman (whose career, for the record, goes all the way back with Bryan Singer), or express admiration that he managed to assemble the raw materials from a legendarily chaotic project into an international blockbuster. The rest of the academy has their ostrich heads plunged far enough into the sand to take care of the rest.

Will Win: Bryan Singer’s Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: BlacKkKlansman

Should Win: BlacKkKlansman

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