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Oscar 2019 Winner Predictions: Original Song

Lady Gaga has had this Oscar in her hands since the A Star Is Born trailer dropped and launched a hundred memes.

A Star Is Born
Photo: Warner Bros.

Among the most galling operations that AMPAS plans to perform on the flatlining body of its formerly glamorous annual awards show is to amputate anywhere from six to eight categories from the televised presentation by announcing the winners during commercial breaks. Not that there isn’t a precedent for that strategy. The Grammys have for years capped each show segment with a recap of the awards that were handed out in the hours-long pre-show ceremony in such non-blockbuster categories as best tropical Latin album, best contemporary Christian music performance/song, best classical compendium, best boxed or special limited edition package, and best immersive audio album.

But the Grammys have 84 categories. No, correction, the Grammys have recently reduced down to 84 categories. The Oscars have, despite continued pressure from disgruntled stunt performers and Andy Serkis’s fan club, held their number down to a perfectly manageable 24 for many years now, most of which contribute to viewers’ understanding of the full range of the cinema’s components. With one glaring exception, a category that, to be honest, makes far more sense as a Grammy category: best song, a persistent holdover from the era when three out of every four Hollywood films starred Jeanette MacDonald, Bing Crosby, or the Nicholas Brothers. Ranked in order of cinematic importance circa 2019, best song arguably comes dead last. (Admittedly, at least one of my editors doesn’t exactly agree with that assessment.) And yet, for decades Oscar producers have generally thanked their lucky stars for the opportunity to break up the carousel ride of self-congratulatory inside baseball.

Until now, at least. Word has it that this year AMPAS wants to only allow a pair of songs to actually be performed during the Oscar telecast, presumably in order to keep the show’s running time down to 17 minutes. Also, presumably, the two songs they want to hear sung just happen to be the two that come from blockbuster hits, A Star Is Born’s “Shallow” and Black Panther’s “All the Stars.” Left in the dust or, if cooler heads prevail, smashed together in a “thanks for playing along” medley are Mary Poppins Returns’s “This Is the Song that Pleasantly Reminds You of ‘Feed the Birds,’” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs’s cowboy ditty boasting a rococo title befitting something Tim Blake Nelson would sing in a Coen brothers anthology western, and Diane Warren’s half-appellate, half-appalling “I’ll Fight,” from RBG: The In-Flight Choice You Most Want Other People to See You’re Watching.

Lady Gaga has had this Oscar in her hands since A Star Is Born steamrolled audiences in Toronto last fall, if not the moment the trailer dropped and launched a hundred memes. Gaga’s ostentatious howling aside, one’s hard pressed to think of another song in this or any recent year that justifies its existence as an explicit plot point. That the main story of the precursor awards thus far is that industry voters “like, Dottie, LIKEA Star is Born actually helps Gaga’s case here, given that it may be the film’s only real shot at a trophy. Unless, of course, everyone feels the same way about Black Panther. To bring it back to the Grammys, if there’s anyone who understands what it’s like to pick up the token awards in order to atone for not being given even the kindness of consideration in the majors, it’s Kendrick Lamar.

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Will Win: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born

Could Win: “All the Stars,” Black Panther

Should Win: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born

Eric Henderson

Eric Henderson is the web content manager for WCCO-TV. His writing has also appeared in City Pages.

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