2023 Tony Awards: Predicting the Likely Winners, from A Doll’s House to Kimberly Akimbo

There’s a shadow hanging over the 2023 Tony Awards, and we don’t just mean the WGA strike, which nearly derailed Broadway’s biggest night. (It remains to be seen whether the many Tony nominees who are WGA members—most of the writers but a bunch of actors, too, including Sara Bareilles—will heed the union’s request not to attend.) In a Broadway season boasting three nonbinary actors in major musical roles, the Tonys continue to require performers to submit themselves in either of the gendered actor and actress categories.

Both Some Like It Hot’s J. Harrison Ghee and Shucked’s Alex Newell are frontrunners in the categories they selected, while Justin David Sullivan, who would have been eligible in one of the featured performer categories for & Juliet, removed themselves from consideration early in the season. This year, the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk Awards, which recognize both Broadway and Off Broadway productions, shed their gendered performance categories, allowing recent wins at both ceremonies for Ghee and Newell in all-gender fields.

If Ghee and Newell repeat those victories at the Tonys, it’ll be a groundbreaking moment that should hopefully put the nail in the coffin for gendered theater awards once and for all.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Topdog/Underdog
Corey Hawkins, Topdog/Underdog
Sean Hayes, Good Night, Oscar
Stephen McKinley Henderson, Between Riverside and Crazy
Wendell Pierce, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Last year, tied votes led to seven nominees here, and the same could have happened this year, as Marcel Spears’s delightfully droll performance in Fat Ham feels conspicuously absent. The two fine actors in Topdog/Underdog may well cancel each other out, leaving Sean Hayes, Stephen McKinley Henderson, and Wendell Pierce to duke it out for the win. Hayes’s take on Oscar Levant is a departure from the lighter fare for which he’s best known (plus, he plays Gershwin’s virtuosic Rhapsody in Blue at the piano eight times a week), so he could easily win. But Stephen McKinley Henderson gives the best performance of the season as the heart and soul of Between Riverside and Crazy, a gorgeously written role that the veteran actor embodies with good-humored grace and a gently burning stubborn fierceness in his character’s quest for justice.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Jessica Chastain, A Doll’s House
Jodie Comer, Prima Facie
Jessica Hecht, Summer, 1976
Audra McDonald, Ohio State Murders

Pardon my utter delight at the prospect of seeing Audra McDonald garner a record-extending seventh Tony, but ‘tis not to be, not this year anyway. This race pits two screen stars, Jodie Comer and Jessica Chastain, against each other, but Comer, in a harrowing solo show that’s piercing in its political message, is way out front of Chastain, who breathes contemporary life into Ibsen’s Nora in a sparsely staged revival. Each is terrific (McDonald is too, of course, in a role that, while quietly devastating, narrates a trauma at a scholarly remove), but Comer’s brutally physical, vocally rigorous performance in Prima Facie is the more memorable.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Christian Borle, Some Like It Hot
J. Harrison Ghee, Some Like It Hot
Josh Groban, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Brian d’Arcy James, Into the Woods
Ben Platt, Parade
Colton Ryan, New York, New York

This is a three-way race between J. Harrison Ghee, who lights up the stage as Jerry/Daphne in Some Like It Hot; Ben Platt as a soberly heartbreaking Leo Frank in Parade; and Josh Groban, unfurling his mellifluous baritone and extending his acting chops in Sweeney Todd. Platt and Groban contribute mightily to the success of their respective shows, but Some Like It Hot works as well as it does almost entirely because of Ghee’s heartfelt, explosive performance.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Annaleigh Ashford, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Sara Bareilles, Into the Woods
Victoria Clark, Kimberly Akimbo
Lorna Courtney, & Juliet
Micaela Diamond, Parade

Victoria Clark won her first Tony in 2005, as the middle-aged mother of an adult daughter in The Light in the Piazza. She’ll win her second on Sunday for playing a 16-year-old in Kimberly Akimbo, a result that’s felt almost inevitable since she first debuted the role Off Broadway at the Atlantic Theater Company in 2021. The humanity with which she endows Kimberly Levaco, a teenager with a life-limiting illness that causes her to age at more than four times the rate of an average human being, is miraculous. So, too, is the way that Clark modifies her soaring soprano to find the dramatic voice of this self-empowered heroine. (Speaking of ages, Micaela Diamond is only 23 and Lorna Courtney is 24, so we’ll be seeing lots more of them soon.)

Best Play

Ain’t No Mo, Jordan E. Cooper
Between Riverside and Crazy, Stephen Adly Guirgis
Cost of Living, Martyna Majok
Fat Ham, James Ijames
Leopoldstadt, Tom Stoppard

Ain’t No Mo’ may have been the most grippingly groundbreaking play this season, but its too-short run means that many voters won’t have made it in time. (This year, voters can cast their ballots in categories where they’ve seen everything or missed exactly one show.) That leaves three Pulitzer Prize winners and one British behemoth from legendary Tom Stoppard, who’s already won this category more times than any living playwright. I’d narrow the race to the two plays still running, Leopoldstadt and Fat Ham. And while the head says Leopoldstadt (which took home the Olivier when it opened on the West End), the heart says that Fat Ham, James Ijames’s movingly uproarious riff on Hamlet, has a fighting chance. The heart wants what the heart wants so my money’s on voters going with their gut and crowning the delightful upstart in the night’s biggest upset, a win for a new and vibrant American voice on Broadway.

Best Musical

& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot

Since Kimberly Akimbo was eligible for awards that include Off Broadway productions last season, we haven’t seen it go head to head against its most competitive challengers, Some Like It Hot and Shucked. Some Like It Hot, which leads the Tony nominations with 13, won both the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle awards, but I’d still posit that the uproarious crowd-pleaser Shucked will pose the greatest challenge for consensus pick Kimberly Akimbo. What Shucked has going for it is that it lies somewhere in between the serious, small-scale model for recent past wins (A Strange Loop, The Band’s Visit) and the large-cast spectacles they’ve defeated. It may be rather light fare, but it’s the season’s biggest underdog. Still, Kimberly Akimbo’s storytelling is close to faultless, and it feels like the apotheosis of a bunch of much-beloved Broadway careers, including composer Jeanine Tesori and star Victoria Clark.

Best Book of a Musical

& Juliet, David West Read
Kimberly Akimbo, David Lindsay-Abaire
New York, New York, David Thompson and Sharon Washington
Shucked, Robert Horn
Some Like It Hot, Matthew López and Amber Ruffin

If Kimberly Akimbo’s going to face a fight in the creative categories, this is the place where it happens. Robert Horn’s book for Shucked is chockfull of jokes and Amber Ruffin and Matthew López deliver the laughs in Some Like It Hot, too, in a fresh take on the film. But Shucked, Some Like It Hot, and & Juliet are silly at their enjoyable cores, despite some heartwarming moments, in a way that the very funny but profoundly affecting Kimberly Akimbo is not. Lindsay-Abaire, a Pulitzer Prize winner for Rabbit Hole, will get one of his 2023 Tonys here in recognition of this season’s most beautifully rendered characters and storyline.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Almost Famous, Music by Tom Kitt, Lyrics by Cameron Crowe and Tom Kitt
Kimberly Akimbo, Music by Jeanine Tesori, Lyrics by David Lindsay-Abaire
KPOP, Music and Lyrics by Helen Park and Max Vernon
Shucked, Music and Lyrics by Brandy Clark and Shane McAnally
Some Like It Hot, Music by Marc Shaiman, Lyrics by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman

It’s great to see Helen Park make history as the first Asian American woman composer to be nominated in this category. But that won’t help to push the convincing tunes of KPOP to a win. Another groundbreaking female composer will likely win the Tony here: Jeanine Tesori, who, with Lisa Kron, was part of the first all-female writing team to win this award in 2015 for Fun Home. Tesori’s score for Kimberly Akimbo is her finest to date, in large part due to how its stylistic variety emerges thoughtfully from the story. Her lyricist this time is David Lindsay-Abaire, whose thoughtful rhymes call attention to themselves only in their subtlety in breathing life into his quirky, complex characters. (This is, by the way, the first time that three nominated scores have music by women, and if you haven’t had the pleasure of hearing Brandy Clark and Shane McAnally’s songs for Shucked, check out the delectable cast album.)

Best Choreography

Steven Hoggett, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Casey Nicholaw, Some Like It Hot
Susan Stroman, New York, New York
Jennifer Weber, & Juliet
Jennifer Weber, KPOP

KPOP may have had the coolest moves this season, but Jennifer Weber’s double nomination is also a double-edged sword, as she seems likely to divide her fans between her two shows. I think this one goes to Casey Nicholaw, who’s somehow never won a Tony for choreography (this is his seventh nomination in this category), and the frenetic period dances and over-the-top tapping in Some Like It Hot that constitute the show’s peripatetic motor are sure to change that.

Best Orchestrations

Bill Sherman and Dominic Fallacaro, & Juliet
John Clancy, Kimberly Akimbo
Jason Howland, Shucked
Charlie Rosen and Bryan Carter, Some Like It Hot
Daryl Waters and Sam Davis, New York, New York

This one is a five-course tossup with only excellence on the menu. Last year saw jukebox musical MJ take the award over the smaller-scale A Strange Loop, which means that the high-octane Max Martin arrangements on & Juliet can best the more delicate work of John Clancy milking Kimberly Akimbo’s score for maximal instrumental eccentricity and Jason Howland merging country and Broadway with delicate aplomb on Shucked. But this year there’s also the big brass of Some Like It Hot and the rich fullness from New York, New York’s pit. I’d probably cast my ballot for Shucked in recognition of the fresh, genre-spanning sound Howland invents, but I won’t be surprised or disappointed when Daryl Waters and Sam Davis clinch it for bringing those epic first five notes from New York, New York’s title song to gargantuan life.

Best Direction of a Play

Saheem Ali, Fat Ham
Jo Bonney, Cost of Living
Jamie Lloyd, A Doll’s House
Patrick Marber, Leopoldstadt
Stevie Walker-Webb, Ain’t No Mo’
Max Webster, Life of Pi

As in so many categories this year, Ain’t No Mo’ will be fatally hampered by its short run, and had more voters gotten a chance to see it, we’d be talking about Stevie Walker-Webb as a frontrunner instead of as a surprise nominee. Jamie Lloyd’s barebones staging of A Doll’s House is the most daring option here, but it’s also the most divisive, as Lloyd’s detractors may be numerous enough to keep him from a win. And while Patrick Marber’s staging of Leopoldstadt struck me mainly as prestige-crowd control, I don’t see him overtaken by Saheem Ali or Jo Bonney, both doing lovelier, subtler work. I think Marber’s greatest threat could come from Max Webster, even though Life of Pi, a frontrunner in a few design categories, was left out of Best Play and Best Actor. If the parts are ultimately more impressive than the whole, Webster still is responsible for the overall vision for how those mesmerizing pieces work together. The Leopoldstadt love should carry Marber to a consensus victory here.

Best Direction of a Musical

Michael Arden, Parade
Lear deBessonet, Into the Woods
Casey Nicholaw, Some Like It Hot
Jack O’Brien, Shucked
Jessica Stone, Kimberly Akimbo

The nominators got this category exactly right, as all five contenders guided their shows, elevating—or in the case of Lear DeBessonet, crystallizing—the material. To me, the clear winner should be—and probably will be—Michael Arden for the precision with which every on-stage element combines to maximize the Parade revival’s emotional power. I’m not convinced that Parade is as great a show as Arden makes it look, but I can’t imagine a more cohesive, purposeful production of this heartbreakingly relevant historical musical.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Jordan E. Cooper, Ain’t No Mo’
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Arian Moayed, A Doll’s House
Brandon Uranowitz, Leopoldstadt
David Zayas, Cost of Living

What a pleasure to see Jordan E. Cooper recognized here and in best play, as his flight attendant Peaches was a hilarious, deeply moving highlight of Ain’t No Mo’. But since voters can cast ballots in categories where they’ve seen four out of five nominees, Cooper is at a disadvantage. I think that leaves Brandon Uranowitz, who was considered a lock for a nomination all season, as the one to beat. I didn’t find his role in Leopoldstadt as gripping as other critics have, but I’m guessing voters will see Samuel L. Jackson’s presence here as perfunctory (his co-star Michael Potts was the real MVP of The Piano Lesson) and pass Uranowitz the trophy.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Nikki Crawford, Fat Ham
Crystal Lucas-Perry, Ain’t No Mo’
Miriam Silverman, The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window
Katy Sullivan, Cost of Living
Kara Young, Cost of Living

At the risk of contradicting myself with regard to the chances of Ain’t No Mo’ at snagging awards given its miniature run, I have a hard time not picking Crystal Lucas-Perry here, because the voters who did see Ain’t No Mo’ should remember her astonishing collection of roles across the play’s sketches. I’m still haunted by her brief portrayal of an incarcerated woman preparing for her release and still giggling over her reality show caricature with its absurdist, sharp turn. That could be enough to push her over the line. But what a category this is. If it’s not Lucas-Perry, it’s hard to pick between Nikki Crawford’s strident, stricken sensuality in Fat Ham and Katy Sullivan’s caustically caring acerbity in Cost of Living. (Kara Young and Miriam Silverman are also more than worthy competitors.) This remains the best hope for Ain’t No Mo’ so snag a win, and I’m counting on the voters who made it there to recognize Lucas-Perry’s superb work.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Kevin Cahoon, Shucked
Justin Cooley, Kimberly Akimbo
Kevin Del Aguila, Some Like It Hot
Jordan Donica, Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot
Alex Newell, Shucked

It all comes down to Alex Newell and Justin Cooley here. If voters feel they’ve done their due diligence by giving Kimberly Akimbo two acting nods in Victoria Clark and Bonnie Milligan, Newell’s presence here allows them to spread the wealth. But as electrifying as Newell is in Shucked, Cooley’s earnest, quirky Broadway debut as Seth is a big part of what makes Kimberly Akimbo work as well as it does. (And let’s be honest: He could just as easily be considered in the leading role category.) I’d give Newell the edge—theirs is a pretty darn delightful performance—but if voters go all out for Kimberly, Cooley could benefit from that extra love.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Julia Lester, Into the Woods
Ruthie Ann Miles, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Bonnie Milligan, Kimberly Akimbo
NaTasha Yvette Williams, Some Like It Hot
Betsy Wolfe, & Juliet

It’s hard to imagine anyone but Bonnie Milligan taking this one. As Milligan’s raunchily amoral Aunt Debra belts in Kimberly Akimbo, “Take the bull by the horns/Grab life by the balls,” and that’s just what Milligan does in this wickedly fun role. Betsy Wolfe is the standout star in the whimsical & Juliet (Natasha Yvette Williams also has a ball in Some Like It Hot), but it’s not the kind of bizarro barn-burning turn that Tony voters will have the chance to reward with Milligan.

Best Revival of a Musical

Into the Woods
Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot
Parade
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

We can write off Camelot’s chances, but the other three are in something of a dead heat. Common sense may tell you to count Into the Woods out since it closed in January, launching its national tour in the months since, and Parade may be in the leader’s spot with the Sondheim supporters splitting the vote between Into the Woods and Sweeney Todd. But January’s not quite ancient history and the Into the Woods album did more recently win a Grammy over lots of fierce competition (mostly from last season). I’m going to go out on a limb (Baker’s Wives, watch out for falling branches) and say that voters will honor Parade elsewhere and go all in for the little miracle of an Into the Woods revival in the only category it can actually win.

Best Revival of a Play

The Piano Lesson
A Doll’s House
Topdog/Underdog
The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window

The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window was a last-minute addition to the season, undeservedly knocking the moving Death of A Salesman and Ohio State Murders out of the nominees’ circle. Despite the critical love for The Piano Lesson (a production that I found lacking in the electricity that’s powered previous iterations of this extraordinary play), the top contenders seem to be Jamie Lloyd’s stripped-down A Doll’s House and Kenny Leon’s unimpeachable rendering of Topdog/Underdog. A win for A Doll’s House would be a chance to honor the entire excellent cast, led by Jessica Chastain, as well as Amy Herzog’s keen adaptation. Of the nominees, only A Doll’s House is a radical reinvention so this one will depend on just how many voters were hooked, as I was, by Lloyd’s empty stage and intimate mic-ing. In a close race, I’ll put my money on A Doll’s House and Chastain, still spinning around and around in that chair.