Second verse, same as the first. Last week, we underlined what a massive Oscar overperformer Catherine Martin is, as a two-time winner in both the costume and production design categories, namely for films that were directed by her now-husband, Baz Luhrmann. And, sure enough, BAFTA gave her another trophy for her costumes in Elvis.
While that would seem to seal the deal, we can’t be alone in thinking that rhinestone jumpsuits are at least spiritually a step too close to the stock room of a Spirit Halloween to take Elvis too seriously as a contender. And while it’s worth mentioning that the Costume Designers Guild just handed their awards out to both Elvis and Shirley Kurata’s equally Halloween-ready head-to-toe triumph that is Jamie Lee Curtis’s Deirdre Beaubeirdre, that guild fails to predict the Oscar winner roughly half the time, even with three separate film categories.
In the wide angle, it’s not difficult to see that the history of the costume design Oscar skews far more often toward the stately and regal versus the garish and gaudy. That alone had us wondering if everyone is underrating three-time Oscar winner Jenny Beavan’s faux-Dior frocks in Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris and if she might be a stealth underdog in this race.
Certainly, costumes that figure explicitly into the plot are treated to bonus points, as they were in the case of Phantom Thread. But even though neither that film’s nor Mrs. Harris’s couture could be accused of being ostentatious, the main difference between the two is that Phantom Thread was nominated for a slew of awards, including best picture, whereas Beavan represents the sole candidate from her film. Costume design, like production design, isn’t a category that requires a ton of overall heat as a prerequisite for a win, but you do have to go all the way back to Marie Antoinette to find a film that won the Oscar here on its sole nomination.
Ruth Carter was a mild surprise winner four years ago for Marvel’s first journey to Wakanda, and you’d be hard-pressed to say she rested on her laurels the second time around—not just for every single one of Angela Bassett’s fierce gowns, but also for making Julia Louis-Dreyfus look uncannily like Kamala Harris as played by The Tenant-era Isabelle Adjani. Carter’s chances, frankly, feel better than Bassett’s do at this stage of the game. But ultimately, from Margot Robbie’s “Hello, College!” jumper to Jean Smart’s jet-black plumage, Mary Zophres’s sense of too-muchness makes Babylon feel like a three-for-three proposition to us.
Will Win: Babylon
Could Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
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