Two indisputable trends come to a head in this year’s Oscar race for production design: AMPAS’s very clear affinity for fanciful recreations of Hollywood, which is responsible for no less than half of the category’s last six Oscar wins alone, and Catherine Martin, whose personal nominations-to-wins ration is about as good as anyone’s in this or any other category.
The only time that a recreation of La La Land from any era was defeated throughout the last decade was when Hail, Caesar! lost out to, well, La La Land. Whereas you have to go all the way back to William Shakespeare’s Romeo + Juliet to find Martin’s most recent loss in this category. (She did also lose costume design for Australia, but the fact that she managed a nomination at all for that widely loathed film only confirms her award might.)
There are some who point to the Avatar franchise’s previous win here, as well as the sequel’s hardly guaranteed best picture nomination coming to fruition, as something to be taken more seriously than most seem willing to. And we’d probably give it more consideration here were The Way of Water not (much like the first installment) a prescription for instant amnesia.
No, ultimately it’s going to be a showdown between Elvis and Babylon. The former is almost, dare we say, restrained for a Baz Luhrmann production, and the latter arguably comes off as an undisciplined attempt to beat the Bazmark troupe at their own game.
Tackiness and abandon go a long way here, which has to give Babylon an edge. But despite its comparative lack of ostentation, Elvis is still a movie about Elvis. And the gaud is ever-present in its blocks-long recreation of Memphis, the to-the-letter Graceland redux, and the ballroom at the International in Las Vegas. And, of course, the deal Elvis makes to produce his immortal live Christmas special takes place, after all, at the then-dilapidated Hollywood sign.
It’s a flip-a-coin race, and normally that would have us siding with the best picture nominee. But just this weekend the Art Directors Guild handed their period feature award to Babylon, and the ADG to Oscar pipeline is the only trend even stronger than the aforementioned two.
Will Win: Babylon
Could Win: Elvis
Should Win: The Fabelmans
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