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Oscar 2023 Winner Predictions: Visual Effects

Well, now, this is awkward.

Avatar: The Way of Water
Photo: 20th Century Studios

Well, now, this is awkward. Five films are nominated in this category and I’ve seen three and one quarter of them, which is exactly one quarter more than Eric saw and why it’s my lot to predict this category. That’s me telling you that you’re going to have to take that Could Win and Should Win at the end of this article with a grain of salt but, also, that I would rather be teleported back to the Western Front than watch Avatar: The Way of Water or pick up where I left off Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. That is, the point at which my eyes glazed over and I wondered anew if there would ever be another film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe that didn’t play as a straight shot into a realm of soul-crushing anonymity.

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But I digress. Big ups to Top Gun: Maverick’s awesome practical effects, but the way that All Quiet on the Western Front leans into CGI to depict twinks being gruesomely crushed by tankers or shot in the face lands on the classy side of the “go big or go home” showmanship spectrum that Oscar likes. The film is also riding high at the moment, though maybe not high enough to overcome The Way of Water, which secured a record 14 nominations from the Visual Effects Society, meaning that it heads to the Dolby Theatre Hollywood next month as the juggernaut to beat. They say the effects in the film are amazing. If so, I will never know.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Ed Gonzalez

Ed Gonzalez is the co-founder of Slant Magazine. A member of the New York Film Critics Circle, his writing has appeared in The Village Voice, The Los Angeles Times, and other publications.

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