It’s been a little over 48 hours since the Screen Actors Guild Awards unleashed, yes, chaos on the world—or, at least, on the road to Oscar. This is a good thing, because if ever AMPAS needed viewers to be on the edge of their seats ahead of an Oscar ceremony—that is, in this age of declining ratings and competition from other media—it’s now. But in case you haven’t heard: The SAGs have never had zero overlap with the BAFTA awards…until last Sunday.
To be fair, that wasn’t completely unexpected. For one, few expected Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon to follow up their BAFTA victories for The Banshees of Inisherin with wins at the SAGs, and the tea leaves were spelling out that Michelle Yeoh would break Cate Blanchett’s winning streak. And at least in our little corner of the awards blogosphere, Brendan Fraser’s SAG victory for his performance in Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale didn’t exactly come as a surprise, given the echoes that this Oscar race for best actor has to at least one prior one, but also given how much more populist SAG has become since its merger with AFTRA in 2012.
This is the part where we can bore you with details about everything from equity rules to the overlap in memberships between BAFTA, AMPAS, and SAG-AFTRA, but we’re going to keep this simple: SAG-AFTRA has approximately 130,000 active members. That’s more than 120,000 more members than AMPAS, which is enough to explain why BAFTA, which has approximately 6,500 members, has been more closely aligning with Oscar since the SAG-AFTRA merger.
When Austin Butler won the BAFTA award for his performance in Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis, it came as a surprise even to us, given that The Banshees of Inisherin was looking to run the tables at the awards ceremony. This was also the same group that gave prizes to the stars of two other chamber pieces and eventual Oscar winners, Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) and Anthony Hopkins (The Father), who both would go on to lose their SAG bids, to Denzel Washington (Fences) and Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), respectively.
This particular Oscar race most closely recalls the nail-biting two-step between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn throughout the 2008-2009 awards season. Rourke was the star of another Aronofsky film, The Wrestler, and he won both a Golden Globe and BAFTA trophy for his performance, while Penn would go on to win the SAG award for his turn in Milk.
Then, we correctly predicted that Penn would go on win the Oscar, but this year we’re siding with BAFTA. Our logic is that the SAGs have grown softer since the SAG-AFTRA merger, while Oscar has grown edgier, if not necessarily in the acting categories. So, why not Fraser? Because Penn’s BAFTA loss is as easy to explain as Butler’s win, as Penn played a figure that’s mostly lodged in the American consciousness as a significant figure in the struggle for the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender people, while Butler played a man who looms as a totemic figure on the pop-cultural imagination. When in doubt, go with the star of the biopic.
Will Win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Could Win: Branden Fraser, The Whale
Should Win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
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I hope Austin Butler win as you say
“nail-biting two-step between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn throughout the 2007-2008 awards season.”
That was the 2008-09 season.
This is stupid. Brendan Fraser will win or the Academy means nothing. Colin Ferrel was fine, Austin Butler was good and Fraser was ALL TIME GOOD.
I agree
Ridiculous assertion. The man strapped on a fat suit and emoted some. Austin Butler learned to speak, sing, and move like another human over three eras of his life. Plus emoted. Fraser has barely worked in 20 years and even then was mostly himself. Good but not a stretch. Naturally, the Oscars will pick him based on his body of work and his sob story. Awards are useless.
I am rooting for Austin Butler. Even I could act depressed if I was wearing a 300 pound fat suit.
I really hope Austin wins it…but don’t want to get my hopes up.
Austin Butler is Oscar worthy. Not someone with a sob story.
I 100percent agree with Joyce and Brent. Austin gave up almost 3 years of his life to prepare for his role for Elvis. He received high praises from LisaMarie and Priscilla and that speaks volume. It would be an absolute shame if the Academy doesn’t give the Oscar to Austin. He got down to Elviss soul . Austin was phenomenal, electrifying, sensational and more in his portrayal of Elvis. AUSTIN FOR THE OSCAR!