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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions

Fox Searchlight Pictures

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions

This is a complete list of our predicted winners at the 2018 Academy Awards with links to individual articles.

Picture: Get Out
Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name
Foreign Language: A Fantastic Woman
Documentary Feature: Icarus
Animated Feature Film: Coco
Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Animated Short: Revolting Rhymes
Live Action Short: The Eleven O’Clock
Film Editing: Dunkirk
Production Design: The Shape of Water
Cinematography: The Shape of Water
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Score: The Shape of Water
Song: “Remember Me,” Coco
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Picture

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Picture

Universal Pictures

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Picture

It all comes back to Faye Dunaway’s envelope. That moment when the surest best picture winner since Schindler’s List was announced, Hollywood reacted with one final weary round of applause, and Oscar-party attendees everywhere started collecting their coats. And then came the shock to end all shocks, what Mike D’Angelo correctly identified as “the greatest moment in Film Twitter history.” What’s more, PwC’s mistake has now blossomed into the gift that keeps on giving. Because absolutely no one—not even Sasha Stone, who’s been executing an exhaustive control-group ballot experiment the likes of which would make Nate Silver suggest dialing it down—is even remotely confident about what they should predict will win the top prize this year.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Actor

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Actor

Focus Features

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Actor

Typically, when it comes to predicting Oscar’s acting awards, we schedule out our predictions so that we can write about the easiest race first and work our way toward making the toughest call. This year, we didn’t even have to wait until the results of the BAFTAs before declaring Frances McDormand a lock for raging against dirty cops, abusive spouses, and bowls of Froot Loops throughout Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. As it turned out, we could’ve safely knocked all four acting categories down weeks ago.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Costume Design

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Costume Design

Focus Features

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Costume Design

That Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread spent more time on Oscar prognosticators’ shortlists as Untitled PTA London Fashion Film than it did under its actual title indicates that it probably had this award sewn up before anyone even laid eyes on it. In fact, one of the only things that would’ve given us pause about predicting it is the fact that Oscar voters have laid eyes on the ornate, complex, multi-faceted film, and now have to wrestle with their own realization that it’s far from just another runway processional. The other issue is that the last two times films explicitly centered around the world of fashion have competed in the costume design category that should’ve been a cakewalk for them, both ended up losing to regal frocks and fancy frills.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Cinematography

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Cinematography

Fox Searchlight Pictures

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Cinematography

Since Slant started making awards predictions in 2002, we’ve made the mistake—though not as often as others—of calling this category for Roger Deakins, feeling that Oscar was finally ready to make amends. This year, for Blade Runner 2049, this titan of the medium was nominated for the 14th time, and if he loses, he will become the person most nominated in this category without winning. Deakins’s lensing of Denis Villeneuve’s sequel to Ridley Scott’s Blade Runner earned the cinematographer awards from both the American Society of Cinematographers and BAFTA. The last time Deakins managed that feat was in 2002, for his work on the Coen brothers’ The Man Who Wasn’t There, and while we predicted that Deakins would complete the hat trick on Oscar night (we even thought he was due after five nominations), he lost to Andrew Lesnie’s epic-scale lensing of Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, which surely benefited that year from being the only film in this category that was also up for best picture.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Production Design

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Production Design

Fox Searchlight Pictures

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Production Design

In a weird double-dipping twist of fate, the nominees behind Beauty and the Beast and Darkest Hour will be competing against themselves in two separate Oscar categories. That could spell hard luck for production designer Sarah Greenwood and set decorator Katie Spencer (as it could also for costume designer Jacqueline Durran in her category). Still, production design winners have traditionally skewed more toward the plummy and the plush, and both of Greenwood and Spencer’s vehicles over-qualify in that regard. But neither film successfully amalgamates its overall look into the mise-en-scène itself; instead, both deploy their baroque sets to distract from the hollowness of their thematic surroundings. There’s an argument to be made that Blade Runner 2049 is guilty of the same, just on the other, more Film Twitter-friendly side of the coin. But we’re of the opinion that Dennis Gassner, a previous winner for Bugsy, actually finds cunning ways to walk back from the occasionally shallow excesses of the 1982 Ridley Scott original, adding gravity without sacrificing any dystopian opulence. (It’s the 2046 to the original’s In the Mood for Love, if you prefer.) The original Blade Runner infamously lost to Gandhi, and many other years would find us putting our money on Academy members voting to, like Quantum Leap’s Dr. Sam Beckett, put right what once went wrong. But not this year, which will see the AMPAS going back in time for entirely different reasons.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Makeup and Hairstyling

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Makeup and Hairstyling

Focus Features

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Makeup and Hairstyling

What a difference 365 days make. Last year, the makeup and hairstyling category legitimized the phrase “the Oscar-winning Suicide Squad.” Now, the category’s second Trump-era Academy Awards slate is dominated by fusty prestige pictures, and to an extent that we haven’t seen since 1998, when Elizabeth bested Shakespeare In Love. In the midst of a four-alarm idiocracy, any move toward respectability, no matter how hollow, has to be commended.

2018 Oscar Nominations: The Shape of Water Leads Field, James Franco Shut Out, & Rachel Morrison Makes History

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2018 Oscar Nominations: The Shape of Water Leads Field, James Franco Shut Out, & Rachel Morrison Makes History

Fox Searchlight Pictures

2018 Oscar Nominations: The Shape of Water Leads Field, James Franco Shut Out, & Rachel Morrison Makes History

Nominations for the 90th Academy Awards were announced Tuesday morning amid what had been proving to be one of the more unpredictable awards seasons in years, until the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards marched in lockstep in multiple categories, turning hopefuls into frontrunners. Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water led the nomination count with 13, followed by Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk with eight, Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri with seven, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread and Joe Wright’s Darkest Hour with six.

Phantom Thread, Slant’s number one film of 2017, made a surprisingly strong showing, with Anderson claiming his second nomination for best director (we predicted McDonagh to fall short in this category but anticipated Sean Baker to take his spot) and Lesley Manville sneaking into the race over SAG nominees Holly Hunter and Hong Chau. But perhaps the biggest surprise of the morning was James Franco failing to be nominated for The Disaster Artist, proving that Oscar voters who were late in filing their nomination ballots took into account the allegations of sexual misconduct against the actor.

Elsewhere, Rachel Morrison became the first woman in the Academy’s history to be nominated for best cinematography, for her work on Dee Ree’s Mudbound, while Meryl Streep was nominated for the 21st time in her career, extending a record that seems likely to stand for time immemorial.