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Moonlight (#110 of 10)

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions

Paramount Pictures

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions

This is a complete list of our predicted winners at the 2017 Academy Awards with links to individual articles.

Picture: La La Land
Director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Actress: Emma Stone, La La Land
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
Original Screenplay: La La Land
Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Foreign Language: The Salesman
Documentary Feature: O.J.: Made in America
Animated Feature Film: Zootopia
Documentary Short: The White Helmets
Animated Short: Piper
Live Action Short: Enemies Within
Film Editing: La La Land
Production Design: La La Land
Cinematography: La La Land
Costume Design: La La Land
Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Score: La La Land
Song: “City of Stars,” La La Land
Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Sound Mixing: La La Land
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Picture

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Picture

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Picture

It should’ve surprised no one that Hollywood was interested in remaking the Oscar-nominated Toni Erdmann with Jack Nicholson and Kristen Wiig, and certainly not for the same reasons that catapulted the film to the top of our list of the best films of 2016. Spending the last month grimly assessing the chances of La La Land to not only tie but potentially surpass the all-time record for Oscar wins, we couldn’t seem to get the hallmark moment from writer-director Maren Ade’s masterpiece out of the back of our heads.

Sandra Hüller’s Ines Conradi, a marginalized and harried cog in the machine of global capitalism, reaches a crisis point in her father’s deprogramming campaign. Staring down the option of assessing her personal responsibility or picking up the musical cue that her Yamaha DX7-tinkling father, Winfried (played by Peter Simonischek), is throwing her way, she submits, howling through the all-time song-of-myself anthem: “Because the greatest love of all is happening to me/The greatest love of all is easy to achieve/Learning to love yourself is the greatest love of all!” If ever a foreign film somehow lucked into a temperature read of Hollywood’s state of mind, this one did.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Adapted Screenplay

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

A24

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

Oscar voting ended on February 21, and usually in the last few days one can tell where a film stands—and, in some cases, always stood—from news items related to where the allegiances of certain voters lie. When actors like Mark Duplass lobby in favor of Moonlight, encouraging Oscar voters to contemplate what a best picture victory would “mean” for the Barry Jenkins film, he’s acknowledging both the cultural moment in which Moonlight was fostered and its uphill battle against the received wisdom that La La Land has been the best picture favorite since the start of the awards season.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Editing

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Editing

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Editing

We could do this as fast as Janet Jackson saying “Edit” by swiftly calling another La La Land win. Which, to be clear, we are because it will. Just not in anything resembling a walk. In the not-too-distant past, the film that won best picture would traditionally also win this category, with nearly the same hit-to-miss ratio as best director. But these aren’t your father’s tech categories anymore, thanks to the growing schism between yesterday’s tradition-of-quality filmmaking and today’s prestige-blockbuster product: Spotlight versus Mad Max: Fury Road; 12 Years a Slave versus Gravity; No Country for Old Men versus The Bourne Ultimatum. The picture-editing correlation only happened once in the last six Oscar ceremonies, and arguably residual sympathy for Argo’s Ben Affleck not getting a nomination for best director could have been a factor in that film’s triumph over Life of Pi.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Original Score

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Original Score

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Original Score

That La La Land composer Justin Hurwitz will have to give an acceptance speech on February 26 is a certainty. The only real question is whether he’ll give as many speeches as Kate McKinnon’s hapless starlet Gloria Concave did during the Academy Awards’s first rocky decade, as fictionally depicted last weekend at the Academy luncheon. And even though we, like poor plasma-strapped Gloria, will curse uncontrollably at many of the many trophies handed to team La La Land, we won’t strongly protest its inevitable win in this category. And not even for the lack of legitimate competition here.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Cinematography

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Cinematography

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Cinematography

“Today, we declared war on La La Land,” Bill Maher joked on the most recent episode of HBO’s Real Time, referring to the actions of the world’s preeminent fake-news sleuth and his penchant for alienating entire nations in the span of 140 characters. Maher may or may not have been referencing Damien Chazelle’s La La Land, but even if he just meant the city, his reasoning isn’t incredibly off the mark, since few things currently rival Donald J. Trump in unchecked self-involvement so much as Sebastian and Mia’s vacuum-sealed romance set in the heart of a seemingly deserted Los Angeles.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Supporting Actress

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Supporting Actress

Paramount Pictures

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Supporting Actress

If for no other reason than managing to make blood, sweat, and tears no match for snot, the conspicuously overdue Viola Davis has this award locked down, and would in just about any year, even one when #AllLivesMatter emerged as the most virulent “alternative fact.” So we could easily cut this prognosticating short and give this race the Heath Ledger treatment and call it a day, which would be apropos given that Davis also emerged with her dignity intact playing opposite Ledger’s spiritual opposite in David Ayer’s Suicide Squad. (Then again, anyone who had to endure the gift of a dead piglet from Jared Leto would’ve come out smelling like roses, at least in the good old days when chief executives didn’t regularly and metaphorically douse significant portions of their electorate in pig’s blood.)

2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions

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2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Lionsgate

2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions

“While it would be an exaggeration to categorize all this sound and fury about something signifying next-to-nothing ’fun,’ at the very least the hubbub this Oscar year offers welcome respite from the grinding monotony of the presidential race.” So ended the introduction to our Oscar nomination predictions last year. And so ends our collective cautious optimism. Not even Alyssa Edwards’s clicking tongue could summon an exclamation point sharper than the one we now feel reflecting upon the actual stakes of real life amid frivolous, self-congratulating luxury. Unlike we felt when all anyone cared about was getting an Oscar into Leonardo DiCaprio’s hands. Well, we care about a lot more things this year, and so will the Academy. Which means: Expect a lot more films in the Spotlight vein to be nominated, and a lot fewer like Mad Max: Fury Road, with one frivolous exception to the rule that’s going to clearly sing and dance its way to all the wins next month. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Here are our best bets to get past the first heat and maybe earn a few nasty tweets from our future POTUS.

Slant’s Top 25 Films of 2016 Numbers #25-#50 and Individual Ballots

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Slant’s Top 25 Films of 2016

Paramount Pictures

Slant’s Top 25 Films of 2016

From Clayton Dillard’s introduction to Slant Magazine’s Top 25 Films of 2016: “Celebrating great art amid the transition to political catastrophe can feel like, to paraphrase the title of poet Ocean Vuong’s recent collection, a moonlit sky with exit wounds. But the phlegm of post-truths shouldn’t get caught in our throats, let alone our eyes and ears, because films from across the globe continue to present a portrait of resilience in the face of international turmoil.” Click here to read the feature and see if your favorite films of the year made our list. And see below for a list of the films that just missed making it onto our list, followed by our contributors’ individual ballots.

Toronto Film Review Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight

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Toronto Film Review: Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight

A24

Toronto Film Review: Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight

Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight, the director’s first film since 2009’s Medicine for Melancholy, is an ambitious account of the life of a closeted black man from a rough childhood gripped by bullying and poverty to a hardened adulthood built on self-denial. At its best, the film mines much from the faces of the actors who play protagonist Chiron at various points in his life (Alex Hibbert as a shy child, Ashton Sanders as an awkward, searching adolescent, and Trevante Rhodes as a cynical adult), bridging these time periods through incredibly specific body language that each performer manages to share.