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Oscar 2016 Composite Winner Predictions

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Oscar 2016 Composite Winner Predictions

Warner Bros.

Oscar 2016 Composite Winner Predictions

This is a complete list of our predicted winners at the 2016 Academy Awards with links to individual articles.

Picture: The Revenant
Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Actor: Leondardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Actress: Brie Larson, Room
Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Foreign Language: Son of Saul
Documentary Feature: Amy
Animated Feature Film: Inside Out
Documentary Short: Last Day of Freedom
Animated Short: Sanjay’s Super Team
Live Action Short: Ave Maria
Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Cinematography: The Revenant
Costume Design: Cinderella
Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road
Score: The Hateful Eight
Song: “Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Season
Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Sound Mixing: The Revenant
Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions Picture

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Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Picture

20th Century Fox

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Picture

Ed’s fanciful daydream yesterday of simply posting an angry-face emoji in place of a prediction article for best director, while droll, gets right to the heart of the frustrations anyone who follows the Oscar race in real time—in other words, the damned. First and foremost among them, those who actually make a living on, to quote Faye Dunaway’s Joan Crawford in Mommie Dearest, “supplying the grease that makes this shitty movie business work.” In a piece positively dripping with subtweet shade, former Slant contributor Calum Marsh took a look at the role full-time Oscar bloggers play in devaluing the entire enterprise—an enterprise, one hastens to add, built on awarding such enduring classics as Cavalcade, Cimarron, and The Great Ziegfeld.

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions Director

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Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Director

20th Century Fox

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Director

For my last prediction article of this arduous awards season, I had hoped to post only a screencap of Facebook’s new angry-face emoji before crawling into a horse carcass until the Oscar ceremony was over, but decided that I shouldn’t respond to Hollywood’s laziness in kind. As such, I’m forced to relate another true story, of how, following the announcement of how much money The Revenant made in its first weekend of wide release, I fired off an email to my fellow Oscar guru, Eric, too laden with expletives to reprint, but whose gist had to do with at least two major races now being “done” deals.

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions Supporting Actor

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Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Supporting Actor

Warner Bros.

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Supporting Actor

If, as Ed pointed out yesterday, supporting means its own antonym in the world of Oscar, then a wide-open race also means the opposite. Maybe it’s just that full-time awards-circuit journos have the same rooting interest in the illusion of competition that bookies do—bookies who, despite acknowledging a frontrunner, still see this as the closest of the four acting categories. Sure, the myth of a nail-biter is likely to make the eventual four losers feel a lot better, but then again, so can a goody bag filled with a vaporizer, trips to Israel and Japan, the world’s most expensive toilet paper, and a blood-migrating breast lift.

Much as we’d love to see Mark Ruffalo finalize his transformation into beardom with a freshly plumped vampire rack, he joins Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight co-star Rachel McAdams as probably the least likely to win in their respective categories. It’s not problematic in and of itself that, as a pavement-pounding reporter, he gets the film’s one unabashed moment of Oscar-clip scenery-chewing as he rips his editor’s decision to sit on a story (a moment, having worked in newsrooms, I’d have to say Spotlight could have used plenty more of). But his righteous tantrum doesn’t mesh with a film that tastefully flaunts its cohesive ensemble.

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions Supporting Actress

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Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Supporting Actress

Focus Features

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Supporting Actress

True story: When I saw Titanic on opening night in New York City, Sam Waterston was sitting behind me and, within seconds of the credits rolling, was calling bullshit on the film. Almost 20 years later, his daughter, Katherine Waterston, gave two of the best performances of her young career in Queen of Earth and Steve Jobs, and given the response from critics and awards groups, it’s almost as if she never gave them. That Kate Winslet, a great actress who so artfully disappears into her role of Joanna Hoffman in the latter film that you barely notice her spotty accent work, has arguably robbed Waterston of her time in the sun probably has everything to do with name recognition alone. Or, and maybe Sam will agree with me here, the Golden Globe and BAFTA trophies that Winslet has collected for her turn may be explained by some weird reflex by which Titanic enthusiasts see a win for Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio as a two-for-one special.

Spotlight on a Scandal An Interview with Neal Huff

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Spotlight on a Scandal: An Interview with Neal Huff

Victoria Stevens

Spotlight on a Scandal: An Interview with Neal Huff

It was Phil Saviano’s persistence to bring his story of sexual abuse to the attention of the Boston Globe’s Spotlight team that led to a full-scale investigation into the allegations and reports of sexual misconduct by priests of the Archdiocese of Boston and its cover-up by officials in the Catholic Church. This investigation would eventually win the paper’s reporters the Pulitzer Prize, and more than 10 years later become the focus of Tom McCarthy’s critically acclaimed Spotlight. Neal Huff, who plays Saviano in the film, worked with McCarthy on HBO’s The Wire, on which the former played a political aide and the latter a morally challenged reporter. While their working relationship may have allowed Huff to get his foot in the door, it was the physical and emotional intensity of his audition that sealed the deal. The New York stage, film, and television actor’s incredibly deep connection to Saviano is very much evident on the screen, and during our recent chat, he discussed the making of Spotlight and his relationship with Saviano, as well as his urgent desire to play his character in a way that was at once truthful and necessarily representative.

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions Editing

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Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Editing

Warner Bros.

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Editing

Even if Spotlight were still the presumed unstoppable behemoth for best picture it was two months ago, it seems obvious that the film’s TV-procedural rhythms wouldn’t stand a chance here given what a sensation-driven contest this category—which used to be regarded as the secret bellwether for best picture—has become. Last year, Ed Gonzalez called best editing for Whiplash, arguing: “When in doubt, go with the film that most belligerently tests, for better and for worse, the audience’s patience.” This year, we’ve got at least three belligerent editing tests that tilt strongly toward better or worse, so we’re forced to take a leap of faith.

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions Original Screenplay

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Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Original Screenplay

Open Road Films

Oscar 2016 Winner Predictions: Original Screenplay

Not much to ponder here of significance beyond our increasing belief that it seems unfathomable that this year’s best picture winner can walk away with only one other Oscar, and in one of the two screenplay categories. Which is our way of saying that we see Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant, both nominated in every single technical category, as the films primarily gunning for the top prize, with The Big Short the possible beneficiary of a split. For our money, Spotlight has been sending off false signals for some time now of being a stronger best picture contender than it really is. No film so aesthetically (if purposefully) inert, so upright, so un-divisive has won best picture in what seems like decades, and we’re of the impression that this year isn’t one where Oscar wants to be perceived as being behind the times, even if it means making some very unfortunate decisions.

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

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2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

The Weinstein Company

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Every year, Oscar bloggers put on a pretty good show in pointing out how, unlike all previous years (which were inevitably forgone conclusions long before the ballots were even tallied), this year is truly a wild, unpredictable free-for-all. Maybe it’s only an affectation that allows them an opportunity to furtively inflate their own sense of accomplishment when they end up nailing at least 85 percent of the eventual nominees. But damned if this isn’t one of those years where you can at least forgive the indulgence.

Every day for the last week has seen some guild slate or another either kill or revive almost every film’s chances at least once, each twist and turn cueing a chorus of “I told you so” from those momentarily proven right. “You see? I told you Carol was too cold and cerebral.” “No way they’re going to be able to restrain themselves from nominating Star Wars: The Force Awakens when it’s slaying box-office records.” “I knew you were all underestimating how much people loved Ex Machina when it was literally the only quality studio film in theaters for a three-month span.”

While it would be an exaggeration to categorize all this sound and fury about something signifying next to nothing “fun,” at the very least the hubbub this Oscar year offers welcome respite from the grinding monotony of the presidential race. Though even there, and most certainly unlike this year’s Best Director prospects, at least the possibility exists that a woman will get a nomination.