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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions

Fox Searchlight Pictures

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions

This is a complete list of our predicted winners at the 2018 Academy Awards with links to individual articles.

Picture: Get Out
Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name
Foreign Language: A Fantastic Woman
Documentary Feature: Icarus
Animated Feature Film: Coco
Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Animated Short: Revolting Rhymes
Live Action Short: The Eleven O’Clock
Film Editing: Dunkirk
Production Design: The Shape of Water
Cinematography: The Shape of Water
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Score: The Shape of Water
Song: “Remember Me,” Coco
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Picture

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Picture

Universal Pictures

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Picture

It all comes back to Faye Dunaway’s envelope. That moment when the surest best picture winner since Schindler’s List was announced, Hollywood reacted with one final weary round of applause, and Oscar-party attendees everywhere started collecting their coats. And then came the shock to end all shocks, what Mike D’Angelo correctly identified as “the greatest moment in Film Twitter history.” What’s more, PwC’s mistake has now blossomed into the gift that keeps on giving. Because absolutely no one—not even Sasha Stone, who’s been executing an exhaustive control-group ballot experiment the likes of which would make Nate Silver suggest dialing it down—is even remotely confident about what they should predict will win the top prize this year.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Sound Mixing

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Sound Mixing

Warner Bros.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Sound Mixing

Surviving Operation Dynamo would have been a snap compared to having to write about both sound categories for many years in a row. And while I, as a result of having to return to this particular well so many times, probably know about as much the difference between the two categories as your average AMPAS voter, there have been times where that knowledge has frankly been a liability when it comes to predicting the eventual winner. Maybe less so this year, since for the first time in the five-nominees-per-category era, both sound mixing and sound editing nominated the same five films. In the past, sound mixing has been the category where musicals have over-performed against ricocheting bullets and rolling explosions. So Baby Driver would have already been a strong pick as our spoiler here even had it not taken the Association of Motion Picture Sound award. And it would delight us and wouldn’t necessarily surprise us if the film, which dances from speaker to speaker just like music does from Baby’s earbuds, pulls it off. But there’s something about that loss La La Land suffered last year against the indescribably loud Hacksaw Ridge that feels like a terrain-altering sea change for this category. The slates match, and we’re betting the winners do too.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Sound Editing

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Sound Editing

Warner Bros.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Sound Editing

If ever a film is made about Slant’s rolling Oscar coverage, laurels will surely be given to the sound editors who had to convey the blood-curdling magnitude of the hissy fits that Eric Henderson and I throw every year when trying to dodge—or, rather, slap our way out of—having to write about this category. Last year, when this burden was also foisted on me, I obligatorily mentioned that the average Academy member probably can’t tell the difference between sound mixing and sound editing, and that when they’re caught between a show tune and so much sturm und drang, they know where to draw the line in the sand. I then called the race for Hacksaw Ridge, the nominee with the sounds that were, well, the mostest, only for Arrival, our favorite, to persevere. Baby Driver, which recently won the Association of Motion Picture Sound’s mixing award, rolls up to this party as a serious threat in both sound categories, though perhaps less so in this category that tends to favor films that are also best picture nominees. Which means that this is the recent Cinema Audio Society-winning Dunkirk’s to lose.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Cinematography

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Cinematography

Fox Searchlight Pictures

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Cinematography

Since Slant started making awards predictions in 2002, we’ve made the mistake—though not as often as others—of calling this category for Roger Deakins, feeling that Oscar was finally ready to make amends. This year, for Blade Runner 2049, this titan of the medium was nominated for the 14th time, and if he loses, he will become the person most nominated in this category without winning. Deakins’s lensing of Denis Villeneuve’s sequel to Ridley Scott’s Blade Runner earned the cinematographer awards from both the American Society of Cinematographers and BAFTA. The last time Deakins managed that feat was in 2002, for his work on the Coen brothers’ The Man Who Wasn’t There, and while we predicted that Deakins would complete the hat trick on Oscar night (we even thought he was due after five nominations), he lost to Andrew Lesnie’s epic-scale lensing of Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, which surely benefited that year from being the only film in this category that was also up for best picture.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Editing

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Editing

Warner Bros.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Editing

As much hash was made out of the Golden Globes’s decision to file Get Out as a comedy, there were surprisingly few skeptical words directed toward the same taxonomy being given to Baby Driver or I, Tonya. After all, if there are two things as funny as the systemic devaluation of black Americans by purportedly well-meaning white power-holders, they would have to be Kevin Spacey taking a sensitive young thing under his wing and a talented working-class woman being exploited and beaten down by her family, husband, and the snobby gatekeepers adjudicating her field. The ACE Awards similarly didn’t feel any compunction about grouping those three films together as comedies, even throwing noted side-splitter Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri into the same classification, a bridge too far for even the Hollywood Foreign Press Association—and we expect Oscar voters as well.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Director

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Director

Fox Searchlight Pictures

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Director

“Since childhood, I’ve been faithful to monsters. I have been saved and absolved by them, because monsters, I believe, are patron saints of our blissful imperfection, and they allow and embody the possibility of failing,” said Guillermo del Toro while receiving his award for best director earlier this year at the Golden Globes. It’s a beautiful sentiment that goes a long way toward explaining the appeal of the filmmaker’s The Shape of Water. Case in point, the comment left by one Marisa Damele to a Variety article announcing that del Toro had been selected to head the jury at the next Venice Film Festival: “Guillermo del Toro knows how to make us realize, with every one of his films, that some monsters have beauty inside, while some good looking humans are hiding a monster in their interior. Not everything is what it looks like. See through the package. This is the message. He is brilliant.”

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Production Design

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Production Design

Fox Searchlight Pictures

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Production Design

In a weird double-dipping twist of fate, the nominees behind Beauty and the Beast and Darkest Hour will be competing against themselves in two separate Oscar categories. That could spell hard luck for production designer Sarah Greenwood and set decorator Katie Spencer (as it could also for costume designer Jacqueline Durran in her category). Still, production design winners have traditionally skewed more toward the plummy and the plush, and both of Greenwood and Spencer’s vehicles over-qualify in that regard. But neither film successfully amalgamates its overall look into the mise-en-scène itself; instead, both deploy their baroque sets to distract from the hollowness of their thematic surroundings. There’s an argument to be made that Blade Runner 2049 is guilty of the same, just on the other, more Film Twitter-friendly side of the coin. But we’re of the opinion that Dennis Gassner, a previous winner for Bugsy, actually finds cunning ways to walk back from the occasionally shallow excesses of the 1982 Ridley Scott original, adding gravity without sacrificing any dystopian opulence. (It’s the 2046 to the original’s In the Mood for Love, if you prefer.) The original Blade Runner infamously lost to Gandhi, and many other years would find us putting our money on Academy members voting to, like Quantum Leap’s Dr. Sam Beckett, put right what once went wrong. But not this year, which will see the AMPAS going back in time for entirely different reasons.

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions Original Score

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Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Original Score

Fox Searchlight Pictures

Oscar 2018 Winner Predictions: Original Score

At 48 years old, Jóhann Jóhannsson tragically died last week. A still-flourishing talent in the field of movie scoring, Jóhannsson was nominated twice for an Oscar, and we predicted that he would take the trophy for his work on The Theory of Everything. But that he lost his second bid for his brilliant work on Sicario to Ennio Morricone, who at 87 years of age and on his sixth nomination was finally given his due, points to the tendency for this category to withhold making endorsements that only Rip Van Winkle would characterize as hasty. Which explains how John Williams earned a record-extending 51st nomination this year, and for now the fifth time lightly reworking his leitmotifs for the Star Wars franchise.

2018 Oscar Nominations: The Shape of Water Leads Field, James Franco Shut Out, & Rachel Morrison Makes History

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2018 Oscar Nominations: The Shape of Water Leads Field, James Franco Shut Out, & Rachel Morrison Makes History

Fox Searchlight Pictures

2018 Oscar Nominations: The Shape of Water Leads Field, James Franco Shut Out, & Rachel Morrison Makes History

Nominations for the 90th Academy Awards were announced Tuesday morning amid what had been proving to be one of the more unpredictable awards seasons in years, until the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards marched in lockstep in multiple categories, turning hopefuls into frontrunners. Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water led the nomination count with 13, followed by Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk with eight, Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri with seven, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread and Joe Wright’s Darkest Hour with six.

Phantom Thread, Slant’s number one film of 2017, made a surprisingly strong showing, with Anderson claiming his second nomination for best director (we predicted McDonagh to fall short in this category but anticipated Sean Baker to take his spot) and Lesley Manville sneaking into the race over SAG nominees Holly Hunter and Hong Chau. But perhaps the biggest surprise of the morning was James Franco failing to be nominated for The Disaster Artist, proving that Oscar voters who were late in filing their nomination ballots took into account the allegations of sexual misconduct against the actor.

Elsewhere, Rachel Morrison became the first woman in the Academy’s history to be nominated for best cinematography, for her work on Dee Ree’s Mudbound, while Meryl Streep was nominated for the 21st time in her career, extending a record that seems likely to stand for time immemorial.