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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions

Paramount Pictures

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions

This is a complete list of our predicted winners at the 2017 Academy Awards with links to individual articles.

Picture: La La Land
Director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Actress: Emma Stone, La La Land
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
Original Screenplay: La La Land
Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Foreign Language: The Salesman
Documentary Feature: O.J.: Made in America
Animated Feature Film: Zootopia
Documentary Short: The White Helmets
Animated Short: Piper
Live Action Short: Enemies Within
Film Editing: La La Land
Production Design: La La Land
Cinematography: La La Land
Costume Design: La La Land
Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Score: La La Land
Song: “City of Stars,” La La Land
Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Sound Mixing: La La Land
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Picture

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Picture

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Picture

It should’ve surprised no one that Hollywood was interested in remaking the Oscar-nominated Toni Erdmann with Jack Nicholson and Kristen Wiig, and certainly not for the same reasons that catapulted the film to the top of our list of the best films of 2016. Spending the last month grimly assessing the chances of La La Land to not only tie but potentially surpass the all-time record for Oscar wins, we couldn’t seem to get the hallmark moment from writer-director Maren Ade’s masterpiece out of the back of our heads.

Sandra Hüller’s Ines Conradi, a marginalized and harried cog in the machine of global capitalism, reaches a crisis point in her father’s deprogramming campaign. Staring down the option of assessing her personal responsibility or picking up the musical cue that her Yamaha DX7-tinkling father, Winfried (played by Peter Simonischek), is throwing her way, she submits, howling through the all-time song-of-myself anthem: “Because the greatest love of all is happening to me/The greatest love of all is easy to achieve/Learning to love yourself is the greatest love of all!” If ever a foreign film somehow lucked into a temperature read of Hollywood’s state of mind, this one did.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Adapted Screenplay

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

A24

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

Oscar voting ended on February 21, and usually in the last few days one can tell where a film stands—and, in some cases, always stood—from news items related to where the allegiances of certain voters lie. When actors like Mark Duplass lobby in favor of Moonlight, encouraging Oscar voters to contemplate what a best picture victory would “mean” for the Barry Jenkins film, he’s acknowledging both the cultural moment in which Moonlight was fostered and its uphill battle against the received wisdom that La La Land has been the best picture favorite since the start of the awards season.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Costume Design

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Costume Design

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Costume Design

Not every category seems to have cleared the decks for a La La Land rampage. But some slates have aroused our suspicions. We can’t say we’d be surprised if a whisper campaign was launched against Arianne Phillips, whose work on Tom Ford’s lurid and only borderline defensible Nocturnal Animals practically flashes dollar signs up on the screen whenever Amy Adams starts crying. We’re willing to bet Mary Zophres missed out on landing a nomination for her whimsical work in the Coen brothers’ Hail, Caesar! as a result of Beverly Hills gerrymandering. It’s a certainty that Marlon Boyce and Margot Wilson missed the secret society meeting that would’ve ensured The Dressmaker its rightful representation here, owing to the literal-mindedness of certain Oscar voters. And word has it that Jo Sang-kyeong accidentally spilled her amuse-bouche all over Harvey Weinstein’s lapel last November, and rumor was immediately put out that her work on The Handmaiden was not to make the final five. All of these alternative facts were brought to you by the same piece of our collective consciousness that can’t get over the idea of double-digit Oscar wins for La La Land, which incidentally is the same zone experiencing the cognitive dissonance of being put in a position to root for the radical un-reimagining of Jackie O’s pillbox hat, as it’s the only viable alternative to halt Emma Stone’s twirly yellow dress in its tracks.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Sound Editing

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Sound Editing

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Sound Editing

This is your annual reminder that Eric Henderson and I slap each other silly every year until one of us screams “Auntie Roo!” and accepts the degradation of writing about this category. Because there’s only so many ways one can say that the average Academy member can’t tell the difference between sound mixing and sound editing, but when they’re caught between a show tune and so much sturm und drang, they know where to draw the line in the sand. Or, rather, there are enough techies in the Academy who can tell the difference between sound mixing and editing that a maelstrom like La La Land is unable to get by here simply on sheer force of will. And while we would like to think that enough of these techies will tilt the scales in favor of Arrival and its densely layered aural environment, history favors the most earth-shattering sounds here, however artificially they’ve been fabricated, and Hacksaw Ridge is the more predictable choice for anyone in the La La Land fan club with at least enough sense to not obligatorily check off the film’s name in all of its 14 nominated categories.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Original Screenplay

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Original Screenplay

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Original Screenplay

So far as La La Land’s Oscar chances in each category are concerned, there are only three statuses to assign: all sewed up, highly probable, and Ryan Gosling. And one of the main reasons that the middle status even exists at all is because of this category, where writer-director Damien Chazelle’s song-and-dance trifle seems most conspicuously out of its league. Not that that will ultimately hurt the film. If anything, the presence of four other highly defensible nominees probably improves La La Land’s odds, at least enough to make us feel more willing to take a gamble in a category that has admittedly tripped us up more often than almost any other in the past.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Actress

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Actress

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Actress

Those who’ve been paying especial attention to the bylines attached to these articles may have noticed that I’ve largely predicted the categories in which La La Land isn’t nominated. For the conspiracy theorists among you, let me be clear: My complete and utter ambivalence toward Damien Chazelle’s film necessitated that I hand over the reins of the categories in which it is nominated to Eric Henderson, or we would have risked our rolling Oscar prediction coverage rousing the level of excitement of a Jeb Bush rally. And to those who’ve been relishing the shade Eric has been throwing at La La Land, I apologize, because I will not be taking Emma Stone to the library today.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Sound Mixing

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Sound Mixing

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Sound Mixing

No film has reached the current record for most Academy Awards won (11, at least for the next nine days) without also taking this award. Ben-Hur, Titanic, and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King all won it. And La La Land will win it. Even if the film weren’t part of the sort of Oscar tsunami we haven’t really seen much of in the last few decades, Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow could’ve begun memorizing their acceptance speech the moment the nominations were announced. The category is littered with nominations for, as Ed quoted me as saying, “I gotta watch this now?!” movies both somehow inexplicably respectable (Hacksaw Ridge) and not (Template One: A Star Wars Simulacrum and 13 Hours: The Amount of Time Trump Voters Spent Typing the Word ’E-Mails’ in Comment Sections Every Day in 2016). And, as we’ve correctly argued time and time again, musicals have a gam up in sound mixing, even when the musicals take such perpendicular form as in Ray or Whiplash. Only if voters start feeling a tinge of buyer’s remorse this far down the ballot does Arrival have an outside chance, but we’d sooner expect real-life space squids to squirt us with circular Sanskrit.

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Production Design

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Production Design

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Production Design

We’re at that point in our rolling Oscar prediction coverage when fatigue inevitably turns to exasperation. It certainly doesn’t help that the near-clean sweep that La La Land looks to achieve on Oscar night is difficult to have to rationalize in one tech category after another without beating a dead horse. It’s why, two days ago, Eric Henderson tried to get away with a two-line assessment of the best editing race that consisted of an obscure reference to an interlude from Janet Jackson’s Rhythm Nation that prominently features the word “edit” in it (a remnant of said reference remains in yesterday’s published piece). It’s also why I wanted to roll with nothing more than “LOL, La La Land” for today’s column. But that would’ve been as lazy as the likely outcome of this race. As such, see below for a still from Hail, Caesar!

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions Editing

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Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Editing

Lionsgate

Oscar 2017 Winner Predictions: Editing

We could do this as fast as Janet Jackson saying “Edit” by swiftly calling another La La Land win. Which, to be clear, we are because it will. Just not in anything resembling a walk. In the not-too-distant past, the film that won best picture would traditionally also win this category, with nearly the same hit-to-miss ratio as best director. But these aren’t your father’s tech categories anymore, thanks to the growing schism between yesterday’s tradition-of-quality filmmaking and today’s prestige-blockbuster product: Spotlight versus Mad Max: Fury Road; 12 Years a Slave versus Gravity; No Country for Old Men versus The Bourne Ultimatum. The picture-editing correlation only happened once in the last six Oscar ceremonies, and arguably residual sympathy for Argo’s Ben Affleck not getting a nomination for best director could have been a factor in that film’s triumph over Life of Pi.