We felt pretty good about our Grammy Award winner predictions last year. After the televised ceremony, however, we started to ask ourselves, "Where did we go wrong?" If memory serves, only about half of our predictions were correct, but that wasn't the problem—50% ain't too shabby. More perturbing was the fact that only a handful of the categories we chose to predict (specifically, the Big Four) were actually presented live on the show. For those of us who are still interested in the craft of song and the art of the album, Best Song and Best Album for each respective genre are the most important categories. To producers of the Grammy telecast, it's those pesky, ambiguous "Performance" categories, which are invariably bestowed upon the artist who just performed 30 seconds before. Best Pop Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocal. Best Traditional R&B Vocal Performance. Best Instrumental Arrangement Accompanying Vocalist(s). Why not Best Performance By A Drummer In A Country Song By A Duo Or Group With Vocal? It's nice to recognize individual performances, but the main performance categories are consistently stuffed with repeats. In the age of iPod, these categories seem to represent the ongoing distillation of what was once considered art. The death of the tangible single has led to the end of the distinction between "the song" and "the album." After all, what is Confessions if not a collection of individual songs, written and produced by 21 different producers, shuffled together like the "urban" playlist on your little brother's iPod? As a result, albums like Green Day's American Idiot, Loretta Lynn's Van Lear Rose, and Brian Wilson's Smile have truly earned their spots (and, hopefully, their victories) in the little categories you probably won't see on TV on February 13th.



"Let's Get It Started," The Black Eyed Peas
"Here We Go Again," Ray Charles & Norah Jones
"American Idiot," Green Day
"Heaven," Los Lonely Boys
"Yeah!," Usher featuring Lil Jon & Ludacris

ERIC: I think the title of the Ray Charles/Norah Jones collaboration is appropriate here. Another year, another award for multimedia synchronicity over artistic merit. SAL: As overplayed as the song was, and as much as I can't stand Usher, it's going to be hard not to give this one to "Yeah!" It was the most played song of 2004. ERIC: Yeah, but I'm having visions of Norah Jones winning some 70 odd trophies two years back, and Santana doing the same a few years prior to that. Grammy voters can't resist a sweep, and if the Black Eyed Peas cut into the Usher votes, I can't imagine why the single with by far the least radio spins might not end up with an inexplicable, Steely Dan-style win here. SAL: I don't see the, ahem, White Eyed Peas cutting into Usher's votes. Green Day is definitely more worthy in the album category, but this could be the academy's opportunity to award the band. ERIC: Provided they want to. The Grammys have always been a little red state, musically speaking. Who's to say they might not have crossed over politically? SAL: I'd venture to say that a good chunk of the 48.5% of the country who voted for John Kerry work in the music biz. ERIC: Vote or Die.



Genius Loves Company, Ray Charles & Various Artists
American Idiot, Green Day
The Diary Of Alicia Keys, Alicia Keys
Confessions, Usher
The College Dropout, Kanye West

SAL: This is Ray Charles and Company's to lose. Not only will it fulfill the sentimental vote, but it will pack the stage with Grammy faves like Norah Jones and Bonnie Raitt. The academy won't be able to resist. ERIC: If every producer credited with working on Confessions actually voted for it, it would win in a landslide. But if last year's 1-for-4 hip-hop showing in the top categories taught us anything, it's that the average Grammy voter still takes his coffee with cream, thanks. SAL: Hmmm, well Usher isn't hip-hop and Ray Charles is black, so… ERIC: If you can name me five urban radio stations playing Charles's duet with Norah Jones, or give me the racial demographic of Genius Loves Company's target (i.e. Starbucks) audience, I'll gladly stand corrected. SAL: Well, by now Green Day is being perceived as a "veteran" act and their American Idiot is one of the most acclaimed albums of the year and it's currently got the most momentum of all the nominees. I would be pleasantly surprised to see them upset. My gut is telling me they're gonna snag it from the dead blind guy but we'll have to wait and see. They are, after all, the minority in this category. ERIC: And in the nation…



"Daughters," John Mayer
"If I Ain't Got You," Alicia Keys
"Jesus Walks," Kanye West
"Live Like You Were Dying," Tim McGraw
"The Reason," Hoobastank

SAL: John Mayer's "Daughters" came out of nowhere this year. ERIC: Which is where it shall return. This category probably boils down to a two-way contest between Alicia attempting to have sex with her 88 keys and Tim McGraw hurting so good over the death of his father. Guess which image Grammy voters probably feel safer envisioning? SAL: I prefer the image of Kanye West going home empty-handed so he can go cry about it publicly. ERIC: I hate to say it, since I used to call her Alicia "Please," but I'd give her the trophy in this sorry lot. SAL: Agreed. I really liked "Jesus Walks" but then I realized it was about Christ and not a miraculously cured Puerto Rican paraplegic.



Los Lonely Boys
Maroon 5
Joss Stone
Kanye West
Gretchen Wilson

SAL: Grammy history would have us believe that a lady will take Best New Artist home this year (it was telling that Amy Lee of Evanescence accepted the award by herself in 2004). Country bad girl Gretchen Wilson's got it in the bag…unless Kanye West bucks the trend, that is. ERIC: Well, Kanye does have the most nominations. SAL: Yes, but…vagina! ERIC: In that case, maybe Maroon 5 is the frontrunner here.



Genius Loves Company, Ray Charles & Various Artists
Feels Like Home, Norah Jones
Afterglow, Sarah McLachlan
Mind, Body & Soul, Joss Stone
Brian Wilson Presents Smile, Brian Wilson

SAL: I was surprised Brian Wilson didn't get an Album of the Year nod, which makes a win here less likely. Ditto for Norah Jones. Perhaps voters are finally realizing how overrated the girl is. Another one for the late Ray. ERIC: Wow, am I out of the loop. I had no idea that Sarah McLachlan had released another album. SAL: Yes, and most of us fell asleep while listening to it. I do dig that "Stupid" song and the accompanying through-the-ages "Walking On Broken Glass"-style video though. ERIC: I fell asleep one song in on Norah Jones's first album and haven't managed to wake up to her since. It makes me nervous driving around knowing that her aural Valium is being transmitted on Lite-FM stations nationwide.



"Good Luck," Basement Jaxx featuring Lisa Kekaula
"Get Yourself High," The Chemical Brothers
"Slow," Kylie Minogue
"Comfortably Numb," Scissor Sisters
"Toxic," Britney Spears

ERIC: Why is the Franz Ferdinand single (easily more danceable than rockable) not in this category? Oh, that's right. Because the Grammys hold dance music at arm's length, awarding it while holding their collective nose. SAL: Ditto for The Killers' "Somebody Told Me." And the Scissor Sisters were nominated for the wrong song. ERIC: Considering I prefer their trashy downtempo faux-schmaltz ("Mary"), I'd say they were nominated in the wrong category. And it took the Grammy dance branch long enough to get wise to Basement Jaxx and the Chemical Brothers. Unfortunately, the latter act seems to be well past their shelf date. "Good Luck," on the other hand, is a fantastic, chugging single that shoves Britney's sex-pixie ditty and the Scissor Sister's queer-as-milquetoast shtick face down in the dirt. SAL: The only thing more popular than hating on Britney is hating on Britney while dancing shirtless to "Toxic." Will that be enough to score her a Grammy? I'm not sure the world is ready for that. ERIC: I guess the big sea change in this category is that "Toxic" is probably the first Britney single that was, if anything, as big a hit critically as it was commercially. I'm not saying that the Grammy voters give two shits about critical acclaim (which is even harder to summarize in the world of music than it is in movies), except that I think they do more so in categories they don't care about. SAL: Well, it should be noted that Kylie Minogue beat both Cher and Madonna last year, so kicking Britney butt shouldn't be too difficult. I mean, the girl hasn't even won a VMA.



Kish Kash, Basement Jaxx
Legion Of Boom, The Crystal Method
Creamfields, Paul Oakenfold
Always Outnumbered, Never Outgunned, The Prodigy
Reflections, Paul Van Dyk

ERIC: Look, I appreciate the effort to tart up the dance category with a new award, but if this truly represents the best for the genre in LP format, then please spare us the favor, Grammy. SAL: Granny? Oh, I didn't realize you were here, Grandma Henderson. GRANDMA HENDERSON: Any category that makes room for both Paul Oakenfold and Paul Van Dyk is to be held in contempt. The best we can all hope for is that the two far-too-tasteful DJs cancel each other out and make way for a Kish Kash win. SAL: Do they really need to make room for Kish Kash? I would have thought it was a lock. Too bad Björk stopped making electronic music. This should have been hers. ERIC: I'd dance to "Triumph of a Heart" before the other four nominees in this category, and you know you would too. Otherwise, it is pretty telling that the Jaxx are the only act in this category also nominated in the other dance category. The Brixton duo should take this in a cakewalk, unless we're underestimating the appeal of Oakenfold. SAL: Or cake. The Jaxx also have a nomination in the remix field. Oakey doesn't.



"American Idiot," Green Day
"Fall To Pieces," Velvet Revolver
"Float On," Modest Mouse
"Somebody Told Me," The Killers
"Vertigo," U2

SAL: I will puke if U2 wins for "Vertigo," the weakest song on yet another overrated album. ERIC: I'm probably the least qualified person to comment on the relative worth of U2's latest single, since I can't stand one thing the band has ever done. SAL: Not even "Discotheque"? Come on! ERIC: Nope. I merely tolerated that one. SAL: My pick is The Killers' trashy, gender-bending "Somebody Told Me," but Modest Mouse is the likely champ here. ERIC: I'm right behind you regarding The Killers. It's rock that doesn't think it's saving the goddamned world, which sets it apart from most of its competition here.



The Delivery Man, Elvis Costello & The Imposters
American Idiot, Green Day
The Reason, Hoobastank
Hot Fuss, The Killers
Contraband, Velvet Revolver

SAL: If Green Day doesn't snag Album of the Year, you can rest assured they will win this one. [Sigh]. ERIC: The Killers album wins my award for best album title of the year. Otherwise, Green Day probably deserve this one. SAL: Nicole Kidman is afraid of butterflies. [Sigh].



Medúlla, Björk
Franz Ferdinand, Franz Ferdinand
Uh Huh Her, PJ Harvey
Good News For People Who Love Bad News, Modest Mouse
A Ghost Is Born, Wilco

SAL: Franz Ferdinand and Modest Mouse were the little bands that could in 2004. I'll give the edge to the Austro-Hungarian Archduke. Oh, wait, you mean that's a band? Sadly, Björk and PJ Harvey's chances for a Grammy are packed up in your parents' basement with your old glow sticks and club pants. ERIC: Way to fucking bring this whole depressing year into perspective, Sal! Anyway, given that they're halfway between the rock divas of the '90s and the trash-rock faux-pixies of the aughts, I could see this one going Wilco's way, personally. Björk and PJ Harvey will have to record a duet with Little Richard on his deathbed before they ever have a serious shot at Grammy gold. (And oh my God, how fucking awesome would that trio be?!) SAL: Ummmm…are you high? ERIC: You're the one who thinks the assassinated impetus for WWI was nominated in this category. The Grammys aren't that out of date. Anyway, I am giving my vote here to Björk. A friend of mine succinctly described Medúlla as an album about fucking that never reaches an orgasm. He was panning it, of course, but I must be masochistic enough to really dig that.



"Burn," Usher
"Call My Name," Prince
"My Boo," Usher & Alicia Keys
"Yeah!," Usher featuring Lil Jon & Ludacris
"You Don't Know My Name," Alicia Keys

ERIC: There's a nice conversation between the titles that show up in this category. "Call My Name." "You Don't Know My Name." "Say My Name." R&B singers are awfully fond of nomenclature. SAL: Welcome to the Usher & Alicia Show! If votes get split (or shredded, or whatever word embodies a 4-way split), Prince could win his first Grammy in 18 years. ERIC: "My Boo." Just rolls of the tongue. I just like saying it. "My Boo." SAL: And what a clever way of awarding two superstars at once! God, I hate the Grammys. ERIC: I'd be remiss in my duties as a Prince fanatic if I didn't mention that they made the right decision snubbing the rote "Musicology" in favor of what is probably his best heavy-petter since the Jehovah's Witnesses told him that he shouldn't be writing songs about heavy-petting. SAL: Are you really suggesting that Prince should win a Grammy this year? I do love that Alicia Keys song… ERIC: Given the choice between Alicia and Prince, I will always go for Prince. Never mind that this makes me the R&B equivalent of a U2 fan. Anyway, Prince is far more likely to get his obligatory token trophy in the Male Pop Vocal category, where the competition is far thinner.



My Everything, Anita Baker
I Can't Stop, Al Green
The Diary Of Alicia Keys, Alicia Keys
Musicology, Prince
Beautifully Human: Words & Sounds Vol. 2, Jill Scott

SAL: Will Prince's fake album sales (talk about "staging" your own comeback!) translate into fake Grammy votes? ERIC: The album sales might've been fake, but the concert receipts were the real deal…and at less than half the cost of Madonna's tickets. Still, and I hate to say this, Musicology has not held up well to repeated listens. SAL: Really? I never got past the first listen, so I wouldn't know. ERIC: At best, the album provided Prince's band with a few segues to splice between his hit songs on their summer tour. SAL: We should never underestimate the Grammys' ability to be predictable, so Alicia Keys—who's got an Album of the Year nomination—should have no problem winning this contest. Then again, with these two nonsensical R&B Album categories, it's really anyone's game. I'd say Jill Scott deserves it, but the new album is a disappointment. ERIC: Words & Sounds? Does she have an inferiority complex about her own musicality? SAL: Don't you mean musicology? ERIC: I mean humanities. Jill's just so real.



Afrodisiac, Brandy
Damita Jo, Janet Jackson
It's About Time, Christina Milian
Confessions, Usher
Hurt No More, Mario Winans

SAL: This is Brandy's trophy damn it! ERIC: She can have it. Damita Jo is damn irritating. SAL: Awww, was Janet actually a contender? I hadn't realized. That's cute. I do like her album though. Gotta love the fallen diva underdogs. ERIC: If Janet hadn't dozed off on the islands for four songs or so, I'd probably like it a lot more too.



"Why," Jadakiss Featuring Anthony Hamilton
"Dip It Low," Christina Milian featuring Fabolous
"Slow Jamz," Twista featuring Kanye West & Jamie Foxx
"Yeah!," Usher featuring Lil Jon & Ludacris
"All Falls Down," Kanye West & Syleena Johnson

ERIC: Sal will probably crucify me for this, but Christina Milian was behind two of my favorite singles this year. Though I prefer the very "Vibeology" bass-heaviness of Milian's "Whatever U Want," "Dip It Low" was a fantastic, percolating throwback to "Aqua Boogie." SAL: [Looks for rusty nails and a crown of thorns…oh wait, Bono has them.] ERIC: Will "renaissance man" Jaime Foxx's success extend to the Grammys? Probably not. Twista's "Slow Jamz" seemed too much like "Instant Celebrity" played straight-faced. The only thing "Celebrity" had going for it was its ridiculous, hysterical chipmunk vocal loops.



"Drop It Like It's Hot," Snoop Dogg & Pharrell
"Hey Mama," The Black Eyed Peas
"Jesus Walks," Kanye West
"Let's Get It Started," The Black Eyed Peas
"99 Problems," Jay-Z

ERIC: Listening to "Drop It Like It's Hot" is like watching Marlon Wayans in Scary Movie trying to suck in the chronic smoke leaking out of the bullet hole in his chest. I might be in the minority, but I never really started loving the Neptunes until they stopped trying to actually write songs. SAL: When did they ever actually try to write songs? "Drop It" is soooo the kind of the song (a la "Milkshake") that gets real old real fast. "99 Problems" is more durable. I still like it. ERIC: You might be right. The same people who used to sing "Milkshake" months after it was over are the same ones now singing "Drop It.…" SAL: Wow. I never realized how much I hate the Neptunes (or is it their influence?) until right now.



To The 5 Boroughs, Beastie Boys
The Black Album, Jay-Z
The Definition, LL Cool J
Suit, Nelly
The College Dropout, Kanye West

ERIC: Four months back, I'd have easily put money on the Beastie Boys winning here, especially since there will probably be some major vote splitting between Jay-Z's swan song and Kanye West's debutante cotillion. On the other hand, To the 5 Boroughs might be about as of-the-moment as Fahrenheit 9/11, so it could just as easily come up empty. SAL: Yeah, Green Day's got the liberal vote. It's all about Kanye here.



"It's Hard To Kiss The Lips At Night That Chew Your Ass Out All Day Long," The Notorious Cherry Bombs
"Live Like You Were Dying," Tim McGraw
"Miss Being Mrs.," Loretta Lynn
"Portland Oregon," Loretta Lynn
"Redneck Woman," Gretchen Wilson

ERIC: Once again, McGraw's tear in his daddy's beer will probably be unstoppable. The only possible alternative is Gretchen Wilson's runaway hit ode to personifying the glossy exterior of Ugly American self-righteousness. SAL: Now, there's a part of me that hopes "It's Hard To Kiss The Lips At Night That Chew Your Ass Out All Day Long" will win just so I can hear the voiceover guy say "It's Hard To Kiss The Lips At Night That Chew Your Ass Out All Day Long" live on CBS. ERIC: I thought that the only acceptable form of the word "ass" on television hinges on it being preceded by "We'll stick a boot in your," and followed by "'cause it's the American way"? SAL: No, that's only during elaborate wartime Presidential inaugurations.



Van Lear Rose, Loretta Lynn
Live Like You Were Dying, Tim McGraw
Tambourine, Tift Merritt
Be Here, Keith Urban
Here For The Party, Gretchen Wilson

SAL: This should really be Loretta Lynn's award, but seeing as how she was snubbed in all the main categories, it's a toss up between Tim McGraw and Gretchen Wilson. I'd go with Wilson just because it'll make the red state voters think they're being edgy. ERIC: Agreed. This shouldn't even be a contest.



T Bone Burnett
Rob Cavallo
Jimmy Jam, Terry Lewis
Tommy LiPuma
John Shanks

SAL: John Shanks should be exiled from the music business for contributing to three of 2004's worst albums: Hilary Duff, Ashlee Simpson's Autobiography, and Lindsay Lohan's Speak. ERIC: I'm actually speechless. This is the least inspiring, most autopilot set of nominations in recent memory. SAL: And why do I feel like Green Day themselves deserve the nod over Rob Cavallo? ERIC: Because you're more impressed with the anti-Bush rhetoric than the stuck-in-1994 sound? SAL: Okay, Eric, you're forbidden to discuss rock on this website ever again. ERIC: Is that a threat or a promise? SAL: Seeing as how their "stuck-in-1994 sound" has influenced nearly every emo-pop/punk band around today, I'd hardly say it's outdated. ERIC: Point taken. I didn't consider the emo-slash-Fisher Price My First Punk Band angle on the whole thing, since I listen to Yellowcard and Good Charlotte even less often than I listen to U2. SAL: Ditto. Anyway, what I meant was that Green Day are obviously the architects of their sound and this album in particular, so I find it funny that Cavallo got a nomination but they didn't. It's not like he produced anything else notable this year.



"Take Me Out," Franz Ferdinand (Director: Jonas Odell)
"American Idiot," Green Day (Director: Samuel Bayer)
"Flawless," George Michael (Director: Jake Scott)
"Walkie Talkie Man," Steriogram (Director: Michel Gondry)
"Vertigo," U2 (Director: Alex & Martin)

ERIC: "Walkie Talkie Man." We all pretty much agreed four months ago with the VMAs, and I can't imagine anyone here's switching their vote to the likes of U2 or George Michael now. SAL: Yeah, I guess the Steriogram clip is the best of this bunch…but what a crappy bunch. At least Michel Gondry has a shot at winning something this year (because you know he ain't gettin' an Oscar), but this one's probably going to iPod, I mean U2.

© slant magazine, 2005.