Blue Jasmine (#110 of 17)

Oscar 2014 Composite Winner Predictions

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Oscar 2014 Composite Winner Predictions
Oscar 2014 Composite Winner Predictions

Below is a complete list of our predicted winners at the 2014 Academy Awards.

Picture: Gravity
Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Original Screenplay: Her
Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Foreign Language: The Great Beauty
Documentary Feature: Twenty Feet from Stardom
Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Documentary Short: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Animated Short: Mr. Hubolt
Live Action Short: Helium
Film Editing: Gravity
Production Design: The Great Gatsby
Cinematography: Gravity
Costume Design: The Great Gatsby
Makeup and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club
Score: Gravity
Song: “Let It Go,” Frozen
Sound Editing: Gravity
Sound Mixing: Gravity
Visual Effects: Gravity

Oscar 2014 Winner Predictions: Actress

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Oscar 2014 Winner Predictions: Actress
Oscar 2014 Winner Predictions: Actress

If there's anything with even the slightest ability to nudge Cate Blanchett's path to Oscar victory off course, it's the seemingly endless Farrowgate scandal, which has Woody Allen's allegedly molested daughter calling out his muses by name, and guilting them in an attempt to harm the director by extension. As Mark Harris brilliantly observed in his Grantland essay “Oscar Season Turns Ugly,” this kind of linkage of Oscar results to actual sociopolitical issues is at once necessary and ludicrous—a tricky conundrum that can't be assessed “without acknowledging that something horrible is being inappropriately trivialized and something trivial is being inappropriately transformed into a crisis of situational ethics.” I don't think anyone ever felt that Blanchett, an unerringly shrewd celebrity, would have indulged the open invitation to address this scandal in her subsequent acceptance speeches. But few likely foresaw that, amid a pop-cultural atmosphere in which the topic simply cannot be ignored, the Aussie frontrunner would find a way to dodge it while taking an unimpeachable high road, dedicating her Best Actress BAFTA win Sunday night to the “late, great Philip Seymour Hoffman.” In raising her Stoli martini with a twist of lemon to one of the Academy's departed elite, odds are Blanchett closed whatever case Dylan Farrow had in terms of exacting revenge by setting a trip wire for Blue Jasmine's leading lady.

Oscar 2014 Winner Predictions: Original Screenplay

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Oscar 2014 Winner Predictions: Original Screenplay
Oscar 2014 Winner Predictions: Original Screenplay

To shove the elephant out of the room right off the bat, two actually relevant things are working against Woody Allen's chances for a win here, despite having extended his record for most nominations ever in this category. First, the justifiable but still faintly ludicrous categorization of Blue Jasmine as an original screenplay despite its obvious debt to A Streetcar Named Desire. Second, the tangible evidence recently pointed out by Mark Harris that suggests the Academy's expansion of the Best Picture lineup has consequently made the screenwriting category more adjuvant to the main race than ever before. In other words, with Blue Jasmine the only nominee here not also competing for the top prize, voters were already likely to leave Allen babbling on a park bench while whoever's sitting next to him thumbs through the editorial page of The New York Times.

Oscar 2014 Winner Predictions: Makeup and Hairstyling

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Oscar 2014 Winner Predictions: Makeup and Hairstyling
Oscar 2014 Winner Predictions: Makeup and Hairstyling

With countless headlines devoted to Bruce Broughton's nominated-yet-not-nominated Original Song, and Dylan Farrow's steadfast assault on Blue Jasmine's nods for Actress and Original Screenplay, this year's Makeup and Hairstyling category is hardly Oscar's most scandalous. If you ask me, though, it's easily the most repellant of all 24 lineups, and one of the more shameful nominee crops in recent Academy history. I suppose Peter Jackson's furry Middle-earthians can't get lauded every time out, and it's probably best that this voting branch didn't recognize American Hustle, thus fanning the flames of the hater-coined moniker Explosion at the Wig Factory. But, hell, even The Butler's quasi-campy, half-baked prosthetics would have been a step up from what made the shortlist here: the waxed and bewigged transformation of Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club, Johnny Depp's repurposing of a white artist's vision of a Native American in The Lone Ranger, and Johnny Knoxville's dangly ears and Stretch Armstrong scrotum in Bad Grandpa. Since the bulk of Leto's agonizing acceptance-speech torrent has involved vain, ignorant chatter about his physical travails, odds are his movie, the “prestigious” comer to boot, has this win in the bag. And while it's plausible that voters may kick back and overlook The Lone Ranger's senseless racial appropriation, the film that could and should dig a spur into Dallas Buyers Club's lead is Jackass's latest, which, despite its myriad flaws, boasts a mean team of faux-appendage appliers.

Oscar 2014 Nomination Predictions: Picture

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Oscar 2014 Nomination Predictions: Picture
Oscar 2014 Nomination Predictions: Picture

We come to it at last. By now, even the most casual Oscar-watcher should know that the big three bound for the Academy's top race are Alfonso Cuarón's Gravity, Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave, and David O. Russell's American Hustle. The first two have become defining films of the moment for technical and cultural reasons, and the third has bewitched every major awards body, if only for its unabashed bigness and its throng of can't-look-away performances. With minimal reservation, I'll also slap the label of “lock” on Paul Greengrass's Captain Phillips and Alexander Payne's Nebraska, two films that have been showered with adoration this season, and are poised to surge forward in crucial categories (in addition to multiple acting bids, look for the former to land that all-important Editing nod, and the latter to be recognized for its Original Screenplay). And while The Wolf of Wall Street is spreading audiences apart like the legs of its subject's demeaned conquests, perhaps no film this year has prompted more impassioned discussion. Being directed by Martin Scorsese helps; being a white-hot, unavoidable, shouting-match-starting phenomenon cements a slot for what was already an insta-contender.

Oscar 2014 Nomination Predictions: Actress

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Oscar 2014 Nomination Predictions: Actress
Oscar 2014 Nomination Predictions: Actress

Saving Mr. Banks telegraphs Emma Thompson's date with Oscar. When her character, Mary Poppins author P.L. Travers, first meets Walt Disney (Tom Hanks), the mogul of magic walks past a wall of Oscar statuettes—golden idols nearly within Thompson's grasp. And when Travers finally hits the premiere of the film she reluctantly greenlit, she's decked out, as seen above, like she's bound for the Academy's red carpet (though, admittedly, it's good this film takes place in the days before “Who are you wearing?” as it seems the answer could be “Bed Bath & Beyond”). In short, this is my way of saying that Thompson, a woman who's flawlessly navigated the campaign circuit, is in. Could Meryl Streep's Thompson tribute at the National Board of Review Awards, which some saw as underhandedly self-serving, have affected the Brit's chances? I don't think so. If anything, the last few days have galvanized my suspicion that August: Osage County's Streep, the vulnerable hopeful alongside the category's other predicted locks (Thompson, Gravity's Sandra Bullock, Philomena's Judi Dench, and Blue Jasmine's Cate Blanchett), is out.

Oscar 2014 Nomination Predictions: Supporting Actress

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Oscar 2014 Nomination Predictions: Supporting Actress
Oscar 2014 Nomination Predictions: Supporting Actress

When the Weinstein Company ultimately, and perhaps inevitably, retracted its decision to have August: Osage County star Meryl Streep campaign in the Supporting Actress category, it proved to be great news for Streep's co-star Julia Roberts. Indeed, even August writer Tracy Letts claims Roberts's part is a leading role, but debating category fraud is as futile as hoping Armond White won't taint a New York Film Critics Circle awards ceremony, and given the competition, Roberts never would have landed a Best Actress nod anyway. But with Streep bumped into leading contention, Roberts seems to have become a Supporting Actress lock, not only because she steals the show with her bitiest turn since the one that won her an Oscar, but because she's part of a smaller crowd in which she simply can't be overlooked by her adoring peers. Some see Roberts as the wild card; I see her as an industry-beloved shoo-in.