Here’s one of those categories where the spoils usually go to whoever shows us the “most” of whatever it is they’re nominated for. So we thought this was going to be a slam dunk for Alice in Wonderland, whose maker, Tim Burton, has seen three of his films previously take this award: Batman, Sleepy Hollow, and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street. It seemed so easy, especially since we didn’t need to have the conversation about whether voters care if an art director’s vision is realized via nails or keystrokes, what with Avatar having won this award last year. But then Alice in Wonderland lost to Inception with the Art Directors Guild, at which point we had to ask ourselves: Does AMPAS even like Burton’s latest? Yes, we know the putrid Memoirs of a Geisha was a winner here in 2005, but that film’s six nominations suggested wider AMPAS support. Also, the Rob Marshall film didn’t have to compete with a Best Picture nominee, let alone three, including one that stands a reasonable chance of sweeping on Oscar night in a more spectacular than The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King did in 2004.
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Could Win: Alice in Wonderland
Should Win: Inception
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