Oscar 2003 Nomination Predictions

At least four of this year’s potential Best Picture nominees share an allegiance with the Weinstein brothers. Miramax had a stellar year, and as such the Academy will feel indebted to reward them for their good fortune. Indies will once again be underrepresented when nominations are announced on February 11, but the good news is that this year’s potential Best Picture contenders will far out-grace last year’s revolting, Insanity-for-Dummies package A Beautiful Mind. Universal’s New York-based specialty arm USA Films (formerly October Films) merged with Good Machine early last year to form Focus Features. Despite its blurry history, the distribution company (responsible for last year’s Gosford Park) enters the 2003 Oscar race with two major trump cards: expatriate auteur Roman Polanski’s Holocaust drama The Pianist and Todd Haynes’s critically-lauded Far from Heaven. Don’t count out New Line Cinema, which enters the ring a second year in a row with Peter Jackson in one hand and Alexander Payne in the other. Slant Magazine takes a look at Oscar’s top categories, predicting who will make the list and who doesn’t have a chance (but should).

PICTURE: Before its theatrical release, some pundits didn’t think The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (link to Miramax: Bob and Harvey executive produced) could pull off a nomination for Best Picture. More of the same? Hardly. Peter Jackson’s spectacularly gruesome epic has pleased just as many people as The Fellowship of the Ring did last year; it’s also poised to make more money than its predecessor. The only trouble is that no one can decide which film is better. Oscar is unlikely to give the film its top prize, but a nomination is assured. Stephen Daldry’s preening anti-feminist agitprop The Hours (link to Miramax: the studio is handling foreign distribution) is making people swoon like the dated off-off-Broadway production that it is. It has divas, prosthetic noses and, ultimately, absolutely nothing to say. As such, Far from Heaven’s many subtleties stand little-to-no chance against it. Focus Features can take some consolation in the fact that the Academy will not be able to resist voting for a Holocaust drama as good as The Pianist. Polanski may have a harder time scoring a Best Director nod but a nomination for this sensitive account of Wladyslaw Szpilman’s experience in the Warsaw ghetto is a virtual shoe-in. The remaining two spots belong to Rob Marshall’s limp but inoffensive Chicago and Martin Scorsese’s ravishing but divisive Gangs of New York. As for the wildcards: About Schmidt will appeal to older members but may ultimately be too low profile; My Big Fat Greek Wedding made lots of money but it has the scope of a television sitcom; Adaptation. had brains but will repel those who hate Möbius strips; while Road to Perdition and Minority Report packed early steam but will now have to negotiate the success of Catch Me If You Can.

Will Be Nominated: Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, and The Pianist.

Should Be Nominated: Adaptation., Far from Heaven, Femme Fatale, Spider, and Spirited Away.

ACTOR: Cowardice almost forced Miramax to bury The Quiet American before its premiere two years ago at the Toronto Film Festival. Not surprisingly, Michael Caine’s remarkable performance was as layered and inoffensive as the film’s supposedly anti-American politics. Caine became an instant frontrunner for the Best Actor trophy as soon as the film was released, but the buzz has died down significantly since the release of Gangs of New York and About Schmidt. Caine, Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson have all won Oscars before and are shoe-ins for nominations this time around. If Leonardo Di Caprio makes the cut, it will be for Catch Me If You Can and not Gangs of New York but he’ll have to fight off Nicholas Cage, a previous Oscar-winner who gave not one but two stellar performances in Charlie Kaufman’s, er, Spike Jonze’s Adaptation. If the idea of Richard Gere finally getting an Oscar nomination scares the living shit out of you, don’t worry: it ain’t gonna happen. Not only does Gere need to compete against Di Caprio, but Adrien Brody’s career-making performance in The Pianist as well. Brody says more with his eyes than Gere can with his singing and tap-dancing. As for the wildcards: aside from Di Caprio and Tom Hanks (Oscar’s short-attention span will hurt Road to Perdition), it’s a virtual who’s who list of indie players with miniscule publicity muscle on their side. Sam Rockwell and Campbell Scott especially stand out; the former has Miramax behind him but the latter has a better pedigree.

Will Be Nominated: Adrian Brody (The Pianist), Nicholas Cage (Adaptation.), Michael Caine (The Quiet American), Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York), and Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt).

Should Be Nominated: Adrian Brody (The Pianist), Michael Caine (The Quiet American), Ralph Fiennes (Spider), Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York), and Timothy Spall (All or Nothing).

ACTRESS: Should Julianne Moore not get a nomination for her performance in Far from Heaven, it may just count as one of the bigger surprises in Oscar history. But as good as Far from Heaven actually is, Moore’s passive turn in the film may reek of more-of-the-same, especially for anyone who’s seen Safe. If there’s one thing going for The Hours, which also stars Moore, it’s Nicole Kidman’s devastatingly effective performance as Virginia Woolf. She’s a lock for a nomination but with everyone so hung up on her nose, you have to wonder where everyone’s priorities really lie. This year, La Streep will likely make Oscar history by breaking her 12-nom tie with Katharine Hepburn and become the woman with the most Oscar nominations. The question remains, though, whether Streep will score one or two nominations. Another performance that’s superior to its corresponding film is Renée Zellweger’s dazzling, bitchy and vulnerable turn as murderous Roxy Hart in Chicago. If she can score a nomination for Bridget Jones’s Diary, she can certainly earn a spot in this year’s race. If the Academy had any sense, Isabelle Huppert would be competing against herself but how many members can say that they’ve caught both of her chilly performances in Merci Pour Le Chocolat and The Piano Teacher? The final spot is Diane Lane’s to lose. To stand-out in Adrian Lyne’s softcore porn is one thing but to beat Moore in two major critics’ awards must count for something.

Will Be Nominated: Nicole Kidman (The Hours), Diane Lane (Unfaithful), Julianne Moore (Far from Heaven), Meryl Streep (The Hours), and Renée Zellweger (Chicago).

Should Be Nominated: Nicole Kidman (The Hours), Isabelle Huppert (Merci Pour Le Chocolat), Isabelle Huppert (The Piano Teacher), Julianne Moore (Far from Heaven), and Sylvie Testud (Murderous Maids).

SUPPORTING ACTOR: New York Film Critics Online voted for their yearly awards in mid-December, I whole-heartedly chose Andy Serkis as the year’s Best Supporting Actor. Most of the group snickered, though I think that may have had less to do with people disagreeing with me than the fact that New Line refused to screen The Two Towers for members before they voted. But if New Line wasn’t doing their job then, they’re definitely doing it now. There’s no denying that Serkis all but steals the film, but will his frighteningly tragic turn as Gollum, an entirely CGI-creation that puts Jar-Jar Binks to shame, score with anyone besides geeks? This year’s Best Supporting Actor race is by far the most interesting. Because there will be no clear frontrunner heading into Oscar night, anything is possible at this point. Though I’d love to see Serkis get a nomination, my gut tells me that if Robin Williams couldn’t get a nomination for his cocaine-induced voice-work in Aladdin, the Academy is less likely to recognize something remotely this good. As for the shoe-ins: Chris Cooper’s eccentric performance in Adaptation., Ed Harris’s portrayal of a man dying of AIDS in The Hours and Dennis Quaid’s suburban-husband-with-dirty-secret in Far from Heaven. Serkis, Alan Arkin (13 Conversations About One Thing), Alfred Molina (Frida) and critics’ fave Willem Dafoe (Auto Focus) will duke it for the final two spots against Christopher Walken (Catch Me If You Can) and Paul Newman (Road to Perdition).

Will Be Nominated: Chris Cooper (Adaptation.), Ed Harris (The Hours), Paul Newman (Road to Perdition), Dennis Quaid (Far from Heaven), and Christopher Walken (Catch Me If You Can).

Should Be Nominated: Chris Cooper (Adaptation.), Willem Dafoe (Auto Focus), Dennis Quaid (Far from Heaven), Andy Serkis (The Two Towers), and Christopher Walken (Catch Me If You Can).

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Let’s get one thing straight: all the qualms we had about the way Chicago was edited had nothing to do with Catherine Zeta-Jones’s acting abilities. Academy members have already received their screener DVDs and if any of them dare to play key scenes from the film in slow motion, they may spot a few cutaways to body doubles who actually can dance. Most members will be lost beneath the so-called razzle-dazzle, so a nomination for Zeta-Jones is close to a lock (Queen Latifah is more deserving of the spot). Going for two nominations this year are Julianne Moore and Meryl Streep, the former for her limp performance in The Hours (essentially a Clift Notes version of what she does in Far from Heaven) and the latter for her delirious performance in Adaptation. Also a shoe-in is Kathy Bates, who got naked in Alexander Payne’s About Schmidt and earned both the respect and sympathy of the entire country. A beautiful performance in a film this dubiously contemptuous of humanity will not go unnoticed. That leaves one spot: Michelle Pfeiffer was every bit as delicious in the preposterous White Oleander as Patricia Clarkson was in Far from Heaven. But we’re guessing that more people may have watched the season finale of The Sopranos, which may have enticed them to check out Edie Falco’s stellar turn in Sunshine State. John Sayles landed Mary McDonnell in the Best Actress race over ten years ago, so why not Falco? Someone who stands no chance of getting a nomination is, not surprisingly, the one person who deserves the award: Miranda Richardson for her serpentine performance(s) in David Cronenberg’s remarkable Spider. One-week qualifying runs typically do more harm than good. Unless voters remember Richardson as one of the other women from The Hours, she stands about as much a chance at getting a nomination here as Sigourney Weaver does in the Best Actress category for The Guys.

Will Be Nominated: Kathy Bates (About Schmidt), Edie Falco (Sunshine State), Julianne Moore (The Hours), Meryl Streep (Adaptation.), and Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago).

Should Be Nominated: Patricia Clarkson (Far from Heaven), Edie Falco (Sunshine State), Lupe Ontiveros (Real Women Have Curves), Miranda Richardson (Spider), and Meryl Streep (Adaptation).

DIRECTOR: Not long after Roman Polanski was accused of raping a 14-year-old girl during a dinner party at Jack Nicholson’s mansion in 1977, the expatriate director scored a Best Director nomination for his work on Tess. Some 25 years later, pundits seem to think that the Academy will turn around and hold this alleged crime against him. And this is after the woman he supposedly violated told the Los Angeles DA that their encounter was a consensual one. Of course, this doesn’t excuse the severity of Polanski’s actions but it seems that the director’s branch of the Academy has more sympathy than disdain for the esteemed director. Remember: Polanski survived the Warsaw ghetto and lost his wife Sharon Tate back in 1969 when the Manson Family killed her and their unborn child. If there’s anything working against Polanski it’s that the director’s branch may think that The Pianist is entirely too conventional by his otherwise subversive standards. If the Academy as a whole passes on Far from Heaven for Best Picture, the more discriminating director’s branch will find it difficult to forsake Todd Haynes. Two years ago, the branch nominated Stephen Daldry for his work on Billy Elliot so he should have no problem scoring one for The Hours. The two remaining spots will go to Peter Jackson (The Two Towers) and Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York), leaving Rob Marshall (Chicago) on the sidelines. If Chicago should win Best Picture (our money is on The Hours), it would be the first film since Driving Miss Daisy to do so without its director receiving a Best Director nomination.

Will Be Nominated: Stephen Daldry (The Hours), Todd Haynes (Far from Heaven), Peter Jackson (The Two Towers), Roman Polanski (The Pianist), and Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York).

Should Be Nominated: David Cronenberg (Spider), Brian De Palma (Femme Fatale), Todd Haynes (Far from Heaven), Peter Jackson (The Two Towers), and Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York).