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Emmy Predictions 2007

By: Ed Gonzalez On: 09/13/2007 14:00:10 In: Emmys Comments: 3

the sopranos

DRAMA SERIES
Boston Legal
Grey's Anatomy
Heroes
House
The Sopranos

I haven't liked The Sopranos, a one-time winner in this category, for some time now, but the final season—or, rather, the second stretch of last year's especially flippant batch of episodes—was something of a return to form for the show. My favorite episode of this last season ("Soprano Home Movies") wasn't submitted for consideration, but second-best "Kennedy and Heidi" was (in addition to the divisive finale). Grey's Anatomy could upset, but this one feels like a no-brainer.

COMEDY SERIES
30 Rock
Entourage
The Office
Two and a Half Men
Ugly Betty

This category is so close you may as well write 30 Rock, The Office, and Ugly Batty on scraps of paper and just pull one from a hat. The Office's victory last year is probably one of those one-time concessions to the critics—like Arrested Development in 2004 and The Wonder Years way back in 1988, the last time ABC won in this category. Ugly Betty could change that, but I would like to think there are enough voters who recognize this one-note abomination as a bite-sized version of Desperate Housewives. 30 Rock may be Nielsen-challenged, but I'm guessing voters will connect more with its scabrous view of television production than Ugly Betty's shrill take on the politics of magazine publishing.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA
James Gandolfini, The Sopranos
Denis Leary, Rescue Me
Hugh Laurie, House
James Spader, Boston Legal
Kiefer Sutherland, 24

Denis Leary and Hugh Laurie have never won here, but they will—when James Gandolfini isn't nominated alongside them.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Patricia Arquette, Medium
Minnie Driver, The Riches
Edie Falco, The Sopranos
Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Edie Falco knows how to throw a watch across a room, but her talents were clearly wasted on The Sopranos the past two years. And with the honeymoon over for Mariska Hargitay and Patricia Arquette, the road is clear for a Kyra Sedgwick victory. Watch out, though, for that flying nun.

LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Steve Carell, The Office
Ricky Gervais, Extras
Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men

Steve Carell is the man, but a win for Alec Baldwin seems necessary. Just engrave the following on his Emmy: "There is nothing wrong with calling your daughter a rude little piggy!" Does this mean, though, that Britney Spears will get a trophy next year?

LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
America Ferrara, Ugly Betty
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Felicity Huffman, Desperate Housewives
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine
Mary Louis-Parker, Weeds

I would give this one to Mary Louis-Parker—her tête-à-têtes with Martin Donavan on Weeds last season were the shit—but it would appear that Ugly Betty needs to be acknowledged somewhere for its presumably gallant representation of the Mexican immigrant experience.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Michael Emerson, Lost
Michael Imperioli, The Sopranos
T.R. Knight, Grey's Anatomy
Masi Oka, Heroes
Terry O'Quinn, Lost
William Shatner, Boston Legal

Tough call. Terry O'Quinn should have won two years ago, but now he has to split the fanboy vote with Lost costar Michael Emerson and Heroes's Masi Oka. Shatner is loved and T.R. Knight has the whole Isaiah-Washington-called-me-a-faggot  thing working to his sympathetic favor, but Michael Imperioli's dramatic exit from The Sopranos probably gives him the edge.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Lorraine Bracco, The Sopranos
Rachel Griffiths, Brothers & Sisters
Katherine Heigl, Grey's Anatomy
Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy
Aida Turturro, The Sopranos
Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy

Way to sit on a chair this year, Dr. Melfi! Seriously, it's Sandra Oh all the way—for real this time.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Jeremy Piven, Entourage
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
Rainn Wilson, The Office
Kevin Dillon, Entourage
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

Years ago, Slant contributor Eric Henderson revealed in his review of Doogie Howser, M.D.'s first season DVD that Neil Patrick Harris is his "long-lost, separated-at-birth twin brother." The two haven't stopped mirroring each other's lives since: Though we managed to drag Henderson out of the closet way before Perez Hilton got his hands on Harris, it should be noted that in the same year that Harris was nominated for his first Emmy, Henderson was nominated for two! Sure, Henderson's awards are only local and won't be handed out until October, but the synchronicity of these brothers' lives is flabbergasting to us. So, yeah, the whole queer thing probably helps Doogie here, but The Pivert seems to be on a roll. Should win: Rainn Wilson. Duh.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Jenna Fischer, The Office
Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men
Conchata Ferrell, Two and a Half Men
Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty
Elizabeth Perkins, Weeds
Jaime Pressly, My Name is Earl

I can't confirm if the producers of The Office submitted the episode of the show where Pam walks on fiery coals during Dunder-Mifflin's Office Olympics and subsequently confesses to Jim how she fucked up their potential happiness. If they did, Jenna Fischer seems like a lock. Holland Taylor has the industry cred, but she may split the vote with her Two and a Half Men costar Conchata Ferrell. If we give a slight edge to Fischer, it's because girlfriend broke her back in May.

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race
American Idol
Dancing With the Stars
Top Chef
Project Runway

EW has had its head up American Idol's ass for years now, so it comes as a surprise that they're unapologetically picking always-the-bride The Amazing Race. Makes me almost want to abandon ship, but I can't in good conscience stop rallying for the only reality program on television you can watch without a single measure of guilt.

Emmy Predictions 2006

By: Ed Gonzalez On: 08/22/2006 00:17:05 In: Emmys Comments: 244

Emmy Predictions 2006

DRAMA SERIES
Grey's Anatomy
House
The Sopranos
24
The West Wing

I have no more love for The Sopranos after this season's especially flip displays of violence, offensive comedy (like overweight Mrs. Sacrimoni's feet sticking out of a crowd after fainting on the ground at her daughter's wedding), and hilariously rank exploration of homophobia within mafia lines (what would Dr. Melfi say about Phil coming out of a closet before killing Vito?). Worse, though, is House, which, given the preposterously overdriven sarcasm of Hugh Laurie's character, really should be nominated in the comedy category. Should win: Six Feet Under. Oh, wait, the best season of the now-defunct and otherwise disposable HBO drama wasn't even nominated, ostensibly because it didn't meet the American Beauty-esque standards that tickled the staff of Entertainment Weekly every other year. Speaking of EW: I had a dream last night that I was working in their office, which boasted a Brazilian layout. I'll heed their warning and agree that 24 will win here, but Grey's Anatomy could upset.

COMEDY SERIES
Arrested Development
Curb Your Enthusiasm
The Office
Scrubs
Two and a Half Men

Two and a Half Men's seven nominations, like Shakira's hips, don't lie. That everyone's mother at EW thinks this shit is funny not only explains the gutter-dive the magazine has taken in the past year but it also hails the show as the next Everybody Loves Raymond, bound to haunt us for at least seven more years. Sympathy may sway toward Arrested Development, but I have a feeling The Office, the best show on network television, will persevere here, having upped the ante on Curb Your Enthusiam's comedy of embarrassments. Jim and Pam's kiss at the end of the last season was beautifully and breathlessly earned—the best cliffhanger since Dynasty's Moldavian massacre. For real.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Peter Krause, Six Feet Under
Denis Leary, Rescue Me
Christopher Meloni, Law & Order: SVU
Martin Sheen, The West Wing
Kiefer Sutherland, 24

Martin Sheen has never won for his work on The West Wing, and though some think that's a trend that needs buckling, Emmy voters have been casting their votes a little off the beaten track lately, meaning Denis Leary could eek out a win here for his risky work on Rescue Me.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Frances Conroy, Six Feet Under
Geena Davis, Commander in Chief
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Allison Janney, The West Wing
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Apparently Patricia Arquette enunciated too clearly during the second season of Medium to merit a nomination this year. If voters aren't fucking tired of giving Emmys to Alison Janney, Kyra Sedgwick will probably get this for picking up Arquette's fanbase.

LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Steve Carrell, The Office
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Kevin James, The King of Queens
Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men

It's been a banner two years for Steve Carrell. Has anyone heard his voice work in Over the Hedge? Dude is a genius. I don't think he can lose here.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Stockard Channing, Out of Practice
Jane Kaczmarek, Malcolm in the Middle
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine
Debra Messing, Will & Grace

Apparently the execrable The Comeback has its fans, but Lisa Kurdrow must compete here with Julia Louis-Dreyfus, another former Emmy winner who's struggled to find lasting work on the boob tube after the demise of the TV show that launched her career. A vote split could benefit Jane Kaczmarek. Malcolm in the Middle doesn't matter anymore, but the actress has lost six times already, and this may be one injustice voters are more serious about correcting.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Alan Alda, The West Wing
Michael Imperioli, The Sopranos
Gregory Itzin, 24
Oliver Platt, Huff
William Shatner, Boston Legal

If John Laroquette can win four Emmys in a row for Night Court, William Shatner can probably win a third. Still, Gregory Itzin is packing heat here.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Candice Bergen, Boston Legal
Blythe Danner, Huff
Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy
Jean Smart, 24
Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy

Sandra Oh's nomination last year was no fluke, and neither was that Golden Globe. Plus, Grey's Anatomy has to win a major award somewhere.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Will Arnett, Arrested Development
Bryan Cranston, Malcolm in the Middle
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Sean Hayes, Will & Grace
Jeremy Piven, Entourage

Should: Will Arnett. Will: Sean Hayes, who hasn't won for Will & Grace since its second season. Possible upset: The Pivert.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Cheryl Hines, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Megan Mullally, Will & Grace
Elizabeth Perkins, Weeds
Jaime Pressly, My Name Is Earl
Alfre Woodard, Desperate Housewives

Megan Mullally for the same reason Hayes will win: for keeping Will & Grace afloat these last few unwatchable years. Possible upset: Jaime Pressly.

BEST VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show
Late Night with Conan O'Brien
Late Show with David Letterman
Real Time with Bill Maher

It took awhile for us to warm up to The Colbert Report—around the time Steven Colbert roasted the President—but Jon Stewart is still the man.

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race
American Idol
Dancing With the Stars
Project Runway
Survivor

EW asks, "How can Emmy keep ignoring Fox's bigger-than-ever phenom?" Well, possibly because voters think this racist, homophobic phenom is destroying the nation's youth, whereas a good reality program like The Amazing Race keeps the reality-competition format healthy with its world-conscious spirit.

Emmy Predictions (2005)

By: Ed Gonzalez On: 09/17/2005 01:04:09 In: Emmys Comments: 219

DRAMA SERIES
Lost
The West Wing
Deadwood
Six Feet Under
24

The first season of Deadwood was one of the richest experiences I have ever had with a television program in my life. The second wasn't nearly as strong as its first but it was still a remarkable one. The show's cult following and reputation continues to increase but I don't think it has the strength to topple Lost, which is fine since I'm a Lost junkie as well.

COMEDY SERIES
Desperate Housewives
Arrested Development
Everybody Loves Raymond
Scrubs
Will & Grace

Emmy voters will give this to Desperate Housewives not because it's good (it's not) but because it's the one with the most zeitgeist momentum. Arrested Development is still the best comedy show on television, period.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Hugh Laurie, House
James Spader, Boston Legal
Ian McShane, Deadwood
Kiefer Sutherland, 24
Hank Azaria, Huff

Man, I have no business predicting this category (I only watch one of these shows), but I can't imagine anyone on television giving a better performance than Ian McShane does on Deadwood every single cocksucking episode. Spader won last year (same character, different show) so I'm guessing they'll go for some new blood this year: I'm thinking Laurie, whose resemblance to MADtv's Michael MacDonald is the reason why I don't watch House.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Glenn Close, The Shield
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
Patricia Arquette, Medium
Frances Conroy, Six Feet Under
Jennifer Garner, Alias

I was a fan of Law and Order for about 35 years but haven't bothered to catch any of its offshoots. I hear Mariska Hargitay is hot shit, and seeing as she was nominated (and lost) last year and is entering the race with a Golden Globe victory, I'll give this one to her. Of course, Glenn Close has the movie-stah factor working to her advantage and it's been a while since she's won an Emmy, so they're probably dead even.

LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Ray Romano, Everybody Loves Raymond
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Eric McCormack, Will & Grace
Zach Braff, Scrubs

I don't even know what channel Monk is on but Emmy voters seem to love Tony Shaloub. Everybody Loves Raymond is gone now so I suppose sympathy for Romano makes him a likelier upset here than Bateman, who enters the race with a Golden Globe in hand but is likely to split the cutey vote with Zach Braff, who should never win any award in his life simply for having made Garden State (matching shirt and wallpaper? Genius!). Okay, this is a tough one. Should: Bateman. Will: Shalhoub.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Teri Hatcher, Desperate Housewives
Marcia Cross, Desperate Housewives
Patricia Heaton, Everybody Loves Raymond
Felicity Huffman, Desperate Housewives
Jane Kaczmarek, Malcolm in the Middle

Malcolm in the Middle's first season was a major triumph and Kaczmaerk should have won by season two. Now that the show is not as popular—or as good—I don't think she's going to win an Emmy unless she makes a TV movie about a mother whose son is mentally disabled and kidnapped by a pederast. Patricia Heaton is quite possibly the most annoying person ever to be nominated for an Emmy (mark my words: she will tell Star Jones and/or Kathy Griffin on the red carpet that she deserves this award more than anyone else), and while she stands to benefit from a Desperate Housewives split, she's still won this award entirely too many times. Hatcher seems like the shoe-in here, and a victory for her is probably for the best. Once the Emmy voters get it out of their heads that Desperate Housewives is a good show and Hatcher is a great actress, embarrassment will set and in and they'll finally notice that Felicity Huffman acts circles around the entire cast.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
William Shatner, Boston Legal
Oliver Platt, Huff
Naveen Andrews, Lost
Terry O'Quinn, Lost
Alan Alda, The West Wing

The stepfather!

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Sandra Oh, Grey's Antomy
Blythe Danner, Huff
Tyne Daly, Judging Amy
CHH Pounder, The Shield
Stockard Channing, The West Wing

Unless Emmy voters are sad that Sandra Oh wasn't nominated for an Oscar for Sideways, this is probably a race between the other four gals in the category. Daly and Channing already have Emmys (one each for the shows they're nominated for here), meaning it might be tempting to give this one to Apple's grandmother or CHH Pounder. Danner might have a better chance of winning in one of the two other categories she's nominated in, so I'll give this one to Pounder, who's been nominated twice before and lost both times: for a guest performance on X-Files in 1995 and in this very same category back in 1997 for ER.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Jeffrey Tambor, Arrested Development
Jeremy Piven, Entourage
Peter Boyle, Everybody Loves Raymond
Brad Garrett, Everybody Loves Raymond
Sean Hayes, Will & Grace

I expect Jeremy Piven to be one of Entertainment Weekly's Entertainers of the Year come December, and what better justification could the fools over there have for such an inclusion than an Emmy victory on Sunday?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Jessica Walter, Arrested Development
Doris Roberts, Everybody Loves Raymond
Conchata Ferrell, Two and a Half Men
Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men
Megan Mullally, Will & Grace

I imagine that Holland Taylor and Conchata Ferrell will cancel each other out. Doris Roberts doesn't need another Emmy but voters just can't get enough of her. Mullally's show has gone down the tube so this is probably between the older ladies. Should: Walter. Will: Walter.

BEST VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Late Show with David Letterman
Da Ali G Show
Real Time with Bill Maher
Late Night with Conan O'Brien

Moment of Zen: Jon Stewart kicks everyone's ass.

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race
American Idol
The Apprentice
Project Runway
Survivor

The Apprentice highlights everything that's evil in the business world and American Idol is just the epitome of callousness. Project Runway is fun but I can't imagine it's watched or appreciated as much as The Amazing Race or Survivor. Like Survivor, The Amazing Race gives us the same ol' thing every year, but Emmy voters seem to like what The Amazing Race is serving better. Besides, The Amazing Race has the advantage this year of having had two ex-Survivor contestants (monster couple Rob and Amber) in its cast last season, so a vote for the show is, in a way, a vote for Survivor as well.

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