Forecast: The 51st Annual Grammy Awards
By: Sal Cinquemani On: 01/30/2009 16:36:05 In: Grammys Comments: 8
RECORD OF THE YEAR
"Chasing Pavements," Adele
"Viva la Vida," Coldplay
"Bleeding Love," Leona Lewis
"Paper Planes," M.I.A.
"Please Read the Letter," Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
Eric Henderson: So both the Grammys and the Oscars are hip to M.I.A. now? No matter. Slumdog Millionaire may be a frontrunner for Best Picture, but I bet "Paper Planes" comes in fifth here.
Sal Cinquemani: Despite the fact that I can't imagine the academy awarding a song with gunshots in it, I see this as a three-way race between M.I.A., Coldplay, and Plant & Krauss, who could feasibly sweep in every category they're nominated.
Jonathan Keefe: I'd say that all of the people who voted for the Ray Charles & Norah Jones duet a couple of years ago would automatically vote for Plant & Krauss this year, except that Adele's single keeps "Please Read the Letter" from being the most boring nominee. Usually the vote-split favors something particularly tepid, but the reverse situation could actually keep M.I.A. in the running here. But it's always a bad idea to bet against Krauss at the Grammys, and I think she and Plant will pull off the sweep.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends, Coldplay
Tha Carter III, Lil Wayne
Year of the Gentleman, Ne-Yo
Raising Sand, Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
In Rainbows, Radiohead
Sal: Raising Sand embodies both the academy's archaic but still lingering tendency to award seemingly wholesome/veteran acts as well as their recent penchant for trying to prove their hipster cred in this category.
Eric: I'd say that Radiohead, at this point in their career, fills both roles similarly.
Sal: Nah, Thom Yorke looks too much like a fetus.
Jonathan: Yes, that, and the In Rainbows pay-what-you-want release hardly seems like something NARAS's most conservative older voters would want to reward. This one is probably the easiest call this year: Coldplay's Bends-lite pulls enough of the rock contingent's votes from Radiohead, and Ne-Yo pulls enough of the urban branch's votes from Weezy to guarantee that Raising Sand wins.
SONG OF THE YEAR
"American Boy," Estelle featuring Kanye West
"Chasing Pavements," Adele
"I'm Yours," Jason Mraz
"Love Song," Sarah Bareilles
"Viva la Vida," Coldplay
Eric: Collectively, this has to be the fastest set of songs that's ever shown up in this category, and by a winning margin of at least 50 bpm on average. Obviously, the four-on-the-floor of "American Boy" revels in its brisk tempo most conspicuously, so that's not gonna win this unofficial "Best Ballad" category.
Jonathan: The Avril Lavigne/Vanessa Carlton act never wins here either, so Bareilles is out too. It likely comes down to "Viva la Vida," which kind of sounds important but doesn't make a hell of a lot of literal sense, and "I'm Yours," which is better than the John Mayer drivel that usually wins "Best Ballad" but still makes me want to punch Mraz square in the Adam's apple for using the word "bestest" and thinking that's just precious. Normally, that would make Mraz the winner, but Coldplay's just too big not to win one of the major awards.
Sal: Did you just compare Avril Lavigne to Vanessa Carlton? And maybe more upsetting, did you just compare Bareilles to both of them? As much as I (publicly) hate Avril, I can at least sit through the first few notes of her songs without wanting to stab myself in the ears with freshly sharpened pencils (in rhythm with the bouncy beat, of course).
Jonathan: Put down the pencils, Sal. I just meant that, as a young, pop-friendly female singer-songwriter, they all fill a certain "type" in this category, and that type never actually wins. Rest assured that we're all (publicly) glad that Avril has dropped off the face of the earth.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Adele
Duffy
Jonas Brothers
Lady Antebellum
Jazmine Sullivan
Eric: Given that the Jonas Brothers have been around in some stage of puberty or another for the last three or four years, I wonder if we shouldn't throw our vote to them in anticipation of hastening that fifth and final year. Nah, I think they have to throw something Adele's way, right?
Sal: Duffy had one of the biggest selling albums in the world last year (my dad even likes her), so if she doesn't win here, I can't imagine Adele doing it. Besides, Grammy typically likes to award one of its own in this category. Assuming the two Brits cancel each other out, one of the other three could have a shot, and my vote goes to Jazmine, whose Fearless would probably have made our year-end list had I heard it in time.
Jonathan: Sullivan and Lady Antebellum are the only two I see still being halfway relevant in the U.S. five years from now. Of course, just last year this award went to someone who's doing her damnedest to ensure that she won't be alive five years from now, so maybe long-term projections aren't the way to go.
Sal: I'm suddenly seeing the Jonas Brothers taking this. After all, Malia and Sasha are fans. And we're in a recession.
Eric: Best New Artist = $$$?
Sal: No, but popularity is a factor. Hello, Evanescence? Vagina + album sales = win.
Eric: So you're saying the Jonas Brothers fulfill that equation this year?
Sal: Yes.
Jonathan: I just ask for a reaction shot from Taylor Swift when it happens. Maybe if she gets caught making an Angelina-worthy bitchface, people will finally settle down about her.
BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Chasing Pavements," Adele
"Love Song," Sarah Bareilles
"Mercy," Duffy
"Bleeding Love," Leona Lewis
"I Kissed a Girl," Katy Perry
"So What," Pink
Sal: Duffy's got a solid shot at all three of the categories she's nominated in (the third being Best Pop Vocal Album, which lacks a no-brainer Album of the Year nominee), but I think this might be her surest bet. And before you point out that "Bleeding Love" is nominated for Record of the Year, Leona Lewis is decidedly missing from the Best New Artist tally.
Eric: Duffy's up-in-the-throat singing will definitely get a few extra votes from those who take the phrase "vocal performance" very literally. I was going to point out that Adele is also nominated in Record of the Year and Best New Artist, but I sort of think both will fall in this category to Sarah Bareilles. I mean, she didn't even write you a love song, so what's there left to award but her vocal performance?
Sal: Yeah, but this category really has very little to do with vocals. Or maybe I just can't stand song titles that contradict their lyrics…or maybe I just hate that one.
Jonathan: Bareilles isn't winning this if the likes of Natalie Imbruglia, Michelle Branch, and Vanessa Carlton before her couldn't; 10 years' worth of recurrent airplay at AC radio is her reward.
Sal: What? I can't hear you. My ears are filling with blood.
Jonathan: More so than trying to interpret the whims of the Blue Ribbon Panel that cherry-pick the General Field nominations, it's probably more meaningful to look at the Pop Album nominations to see who has a broader base of voter support (see the Clarkson vs. Stefani throwdown from 2006). To that end, this is most likely a contest between Duffy and Leona Lewis. "Mercy" was the only song from Rockferry that I liked much at all and it would get my vote, but Harvey Wein…um, Clive Davis has too much clout for Lewis not to win something, and this is her best bet. But before we go omitting certain other nominees from the discussion on principle, let's not forget that "Who Let the Dogs Out" and "My Humps" both won Grammys. So there's precedent for the nightmare scenarios actually coming to pass.
BEST DANCE RECORDING
"Harder Better Faster Stronger," Daft Punk
"Ready for the Floor," Hot Chip
"Just Dance," Lady Gaga & Colby O'Donis
"Give It 2 Me," Madonna
"Disturbia," Rihanna
"Black & Gold," Sam Sparro
Sal: There's probably no stopping Lady Gaga, what with her song having hit the top of the pop charts and all. Plus, her song has the word "dance" right in the title!
Eric: So you think voters will go Gaga just because the song's title tells them to dance? What about Madonna's "Give It 2 Me"? Do you think that title will make voters fuck her en masse…again?
Sal: If that was a joke, I don't get it.
Eric: She's a whore. That's the joke.
Sal: Oh, a dated Madonna-whore joke. Good one, Eric. I think the title will make voters think she wants a hotdog—I mean, a Grammy—real bad, in which case she won't get one. At least not this year.
Eric: Now there's a dated reference [Legally Blonde 2: Red, White & Blonde].
Sal: Anyway, you're right. If "D.A.N.C.E." couldn't beat Rihanna last year, maybe "Disturbia" could take this one.
Jonathan: I thought we decided to cover this category so we could talk about how balls-out stupid the Daft Punk live performance nomination is. Which, since the only thing the Grammys love more than Alison Krauss is to reward live versions of songs that arguably should have won in previous years, means that Daft Punk could very well beat Gaga.
Sal: And we have Kanye West to thank for it. And no, I'm not being sarcastic.
Eric: I don't give Grammy voters credit for anything, much less realizing that "Harder Better Faster Stronger" isn't a new song, much less that it came out eight years ago (plus or minus a couple of decades, if you're Edwin Birdsong).
BEST ROCK SONG
"Girls in Their Summer Clothes," Bruce Springsteen
"House of Cards," Radiohead
"I Will Possess Your Heart," Death Cab for Cutie
"Sex on Fire," Kings of Leon
"Violet Hill," Coldplay
Sal: It's only right that the Grammy gods will try to rectify the Boss's Oscar snub by granting him his 19th Grammy (and fourth in this category). Anyway, he's got a better shot here than he does going up against Paul McCartney and Neil Young over in Best Solo Rock Vocal Performance.
Jonathan: It speaks to how across-the-board shitty the Rock field is this year that this is its best and most competitive category. Of course, the idea that Kings of Leon's arena-rock version of DJ Lady Tribe's VD rap from Bret Michaels' Herpes Bus qualifies as the best of anything— hell, it proves that the Kings can't even write competently about the one thing that they know, which is their own sluttiness—should have been enough reason to cancel the whole damn show. Springsteen wins by default because he always does, but I'd vote for Coldplay's kind of awesome Steely Dan song.
Eric: I can't wait for Coldplay to release their Gaucho.
BEST URBAN/ALTERNATIVE PERFORMANCE
"Say Goodbye to Love," Kenna
"Wanna Be," Maiysha
"Be OK," Chrisette Michele featuring will.i.am
"Many Moons," Janelle Monae
"Lovin You (Music)," Wayna Featuring Kokayi
Eric: This category's creeping closer and closer to "Alternative" these days. Kenna and Janelle Monae are pretty far removed from India.Arie and Jill Scott. I like it (especially the Fisher Price funk of "Say Goodbye to Love"), but I imagine voters will probably hew close to the infant category's legacy of awarding soft, cerebral, world music-infused R&B. Mouth-clicking cover of Minnie Ripperton for the win.
Sal: Oh, geez. You mean I actually have to listen to music before commenting on a category? BRB…I like the Kenna song but the material on his second album pales in comparison to his debut. Plus, he was kind of an asshole when we interviewed him. I think Chrisette's got this in the bag.
Jonathan: After reading that interview, I was really glad that I passed on doing it, no matter how much I liked New Sacred Cow. I heard the Janelle Monae single about a week too late to vote for it on our year-end list, but I absolutely love it, even if its lack of will-dot-i-dot-am mainstream appeal will keep it from winning here.
BEST RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION
"American Boy," Estelle featuring Kanye West
"Low," Flo Rida featuring T-Pain
"Green Light," John Legend & Andre 3000
"Got Money," Lil Wayne featuring T-Pain
"Superstar," Lupe Fiasco featuring Matthew Santos
Sal: "American Boy" seems like a sure thing here, but frighteningly, T-Pain statistically has a 40% chance of winning.
Eric: And he'll probably have a 60% chance of winning next year. If voters keep that threat in the back of their minds while contemplating their ballot, "American Boy" is probably a slam dunk. That said, "Green Light" represents the Grammy credential double-shot.
Jonathan: The way I predict this category is simple: Which song do members of my extended family have on their iPods? This year, that would be "Low," and their Flo Rida obsession has made for some truly horrific moments at family gatherings. Since I'd just as soon forget some of those moments, I'll agree that "American Boy" actually wins.
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
That Lonesome Song, Jamey Johnson
Sleepless Nights, Patty Loveless
Troubadour, George Strait
Around the Bend, Randy Travis
Heaven, Heartache and the Power of Love, Trisha Yearwood
Eric: Once I was in a K-Mart and trying to decide whether I wanted to buy a book of Word Find or Sudoku puzzles. I heard a woman yell to the cashier, "I done lost all my gah-damned money!"
Sal: And I perused the music section of my parents' local Wal-Mart while I was home for the holidays and realized why Tower Records went out of business.
Jonathan: That's the angle the two of you are taking on this? Really?
Sal: You didn't really expect Eric to sit through five country albums, did you? And by "Eric" I mean "me."
Jonathan: Fair enough. Since I have heard all five of these albums, I'll say that this is, top-to-bottom, the strongest of all 793 Grammy categories this year. In fact, with the exceptions of an inexplicable nomination for Martina McBride (at the expense of Miranda Lambert, no less) and the annual indefensible nomination for Rascal Flatts, the entire Country field is damn near perfect. Yearwood, Loveless, and Johnson would all make for excellent, richly deserving winners—I'd vote for Yearwood's set, which marks her eighth nomination in this category since it was reintroduced in 1995 and is arguably her career-best work—and even the sets by Travis and Strait are better than some albums that have won in this category of late. I think Yearwood has a real shot at this, but Johnson, who has nearly all of the critical buzz this year, and Strait, who has never won a Grammy and is regarded as overdue for some make-up wins, are more likely to take it. Strait has sentiment and a significant commercial edge working in his favor, but I'm going with Johnson, whose gritty album wasn't nearly as lacking in effort as Strait's.
Eric: I'll say this, you annually make me wish I was remotely interested in country, but in this year of Adele/Jonas/T-Pain/reheated Daft Punk, I think we can truly take him at his word that this is the best Grammy has to offer.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
"Chasing Pavements," Adele
"Viva la Vida," Coldplay
"Bleeding Love," Leona Lewis
"Paper Planes," M.I.A.
"Please Read the Letter," Robert Plant & Alison KraussEric Henderson: So both the Grammys and the Oscars are hip to M.I.A. now? No matter. Slumdog Millionaire may be a frontrunner for Best Picture, but I bet "Paper Planes" comes in fifth here.
Sal Cinquemani: Despite the fact that I can't imagine the academy awarding a song with gunshots in it, I see this as a three-way race between M.I.A., Coldplay, and Plant & Krauss, who could feasibly sweep in every category they're nominated.
Jonathan Keefe: I'd say that all of the people who voted for the Ray Charles & Norah Jones duet a couple of years ago would automatically vote for Plant & Krauss this year, except that Adele's single keeps "Please Read the Letter" from being the most boring nominee. Usually the vote-split favors something particularly tepid, but the reverse situation could actually keep M.I.A. in the running here. But it's always a bad idea to bet against Krauss at the Grammys, and I think she and Plant will pull off the sweep.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends, Coldplay
Tha Carter III, Lil Wayne
Year of the Gentleman, Ne-Yo
Raising Sand, Robert Plant & Alison KraussIn Rainbows, Radiohead
Sal: Raising Sand embodies both the academy's archaic but still lingering tendency to award seemingly wholesome/veteran acts as well as their recent penchant for trying to prove their hipster cred in this category.
Eric: I'd say that Radiohead, at this point in their career, fills both roles similarly.
Sal: Nah, Thom Yorke looks too much like a fetus.
Jonathan: Yes, that, and the In Rainbows pay-what-you-want release hardly seems like something NARAS's most conservative older voters would want to reward. This one is probably the easiest call this year: Coldplay's Bends-lite pulls enough of the rock contingent's votes from Radiohead, and Ne-Yo pulls enough of the urban branch's votes from Weezy to guarantee that Raising Sand wins.
SONG OF THE YEAR
"American Boy," Estelle featuring Kanye West
"Chasing Pavements," Adele
"I'm Yours," Jason Mraz
"Love Song," Sarah Bareilles
"Viva la Vida," ColdplayEric: Collectively, this has to be the fastest set of songs that's ever shown up in this category, and by a winning margin of at least 50 bpm on average. Obviously, the four-on-the-floor of "American Boy" revels in its brisk tempo most conspicuously, so that's not gonna win this unofficial "Best Ballad" category.
Jonathan: The Avril Lavigne/Vanessa Carlton act never wins here either, so Bareilles is out too. It likely comes down to "Viva la Vida," which kind of sounds important but doesn't make a hell of a lot of literal sense, and "I'm Yours," which is better than the John Mayer drivel that usually wins "Best Ballad" but still makes me want to punch Mraz square in the Adam's apple for using the word "bestest" and thinking that's just precious. Normally, that would make Mraz the winner, but Coldplay's just too big not to win one of the major awards.
Sal: Did you just compare Avril Lavigne to Vanessa Carlton? And maybe more upsetting, did you just compare Bareilles to both of them? As much as I (publicly) hate Avril, I can at least sit through the first few notes of her songs without wanting to stab myself in the ears with freshly sharpened pencils (in rhythm with the bouncy beat, of course).
Jonathan: Put down the pencils, Sal. I just meant that, as a young, pop-friendly female singer-songwriter, they all fill a certain "type" in this category, and that type never actually wins. Rest assured that we're all (publicly) glad that Avril has dropped off the face of the earth.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Adele
Duffy
Jonas Brothers Lady Antebellum
Jazmine Sullivan
Eric: Given that the Jonas Brothers have been around in some stage of puberty or another for the last three or four years, I wonder if we shouldn't throw our vote to them in anticipation of hastening that fifth and final year. Nah, I think they have to throw something Adele's way, right?
Sal: Duffy had one of the biggest selling albums in the world last year (my dad even likes her), so if she doesn't win here, I can't imagine Adele doing it. Besides, Grammy typically likes to award one of its own in this category. Assuming the two Brits cancel each other out, one of the other three could have a shot, and my vote goes to Jazmine, whose Fearless would probably have made our year-end list had I heard it in time.
Jonathan: Sullivan and Lady Antebellum are the only two I see still being halfway relevant in the U.S. five years from now. Of course, just last year this award went to someone who's doing her damnedest to ensure that she won't be alive five years from now, so maybe long-term projections aren't the way to go.
Sal: I'm suddenly seeing the Jonas Brothers taking this. After all, Malia and Sasha are fans. And we're in a recession.
Eric: Best New Artist = $$$?
Sal: No, but popularity is a factor. Hello, Evanescence? Vagina + album sales = win.
Eric: So you're saying the Jonas Brothers fulfill that equation this year?
Sal: Yes.
Jonathan: I just ask for a reaction shot from Taylor Swift when it happens. Maybe if she gets caught making an Angelina-worthy bitchface, people will finally settle down about her.
BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Chasing Pavements," Adele
"Love Song," Sarah Bareilles
"Mercy," Duffy
"Bleeding Love," Leona Lewis"I Kissed a Girl," Katy Perry
"So What," Pink
Sal: Duffy's got a solid shot at all three of the categories she's nominated in (the third being Best Pop Vocal Album, which lacks a no-brainer Album of the Year nominee), but I think this might be her surest bet. And before you point out that "Bleeding Love" is nominated for Record of the Year, Leona Lewis is decidedly missing from the Best New Artist tally.
Eric: Duffy's up-in-the-throat singing will definitely get a few extra votes from those who take the phrase "vocal performance" very literally. I was going to point out that Adele is also nominated in Record of the Year and Best New Artist, but I sort of think both will fall in this category to Sarah Bareilles. I mean, she didn't even write you a love song, so what's there left to award but her vocal performance?
Sal: Yeah, but this category really has very little to do with vocals. Or maybe I just can't stand song titles that contradict their lyrics…or maybe I just hate that one.
Jonathan: Bareilles isn't winning this if the likes of Natalie Imbruglia, Michelle Branch, and Vanessa Carlton before her couldn't; 10 years' worth of recurrent airplay at AC radio is her reward.
Sal: What? I can't hear you. My ears are filling with blood.
Jonathan: More so than trying to interpret the whims of the Blue Ribbon Panel that cherry-pick the General Field nominations, it's probably more meaningful to look at the Pop Album nominations to see who has a broader base of voter support (see the Clarkson vs. Stefani throwdown from 2006). To that end, this is most likely a contest between Duffy and Leona Lewis. "Mercy" was the only song from Rockferry that I liked much at all and it would get my vote, but Harvey Wein…um, Clive Davis has too much clout for Lewis not to win something, and this is her best bet. But before we go omitting certain other nominees from the discussion on principle, let's not forget that "Who Let the Dogs Out" and "My Humps" both won Grammys. So there's precedent for the nightmare scenarios actually coming to pass.
BEST DANCE RECORDING
"Harder Better Faster Stronger," Daft Punk"Ready for the Floor," Hot Chip
"Just Dance," Lady Gaga & Colby O'Donis
"Give It 2 Me," Madonna
"Disturbia," Rihanna
"Black & Gold," Sam Sparro
Sal: There's probably no stopping Lady Gaga, what with her song having hit the top of the pop charts and all. Plus, her song has the word "dance" right in the title!
Eric: So you think voters will go Gaga just because the song's title tells them to dance? What about Madonna's "Give It 2 Me"? Do you think that title will make voters fuck her en masse…again?
Sal: If that was a joke, I don't get it.
Eric: She's a whore. That's the joke.
Sal: Oh, a dated Madonna-whore joke. Good one, Eric. I think the title will make voters think she wants a hotdog—I mean, a Grammy—real bad, in which case she won't get one. At least not this year.
Eric: Now there's a dated reference [Legally Blonde 2: Red, White & Blonde].
Sal: Anyway, you're right. If "D.A.N.C.E." couldn't beat Rihanna last year, maybe "Disturbia" could take this one.
Jonathan: I thought we decided to cover this category so we could talk about how balls-out stupid the Daft Punk live performance nomination is. Which, since the only thing the Grammys love more than Alison Krauss is to reward live versions of songs that arguably should have won in previous years, means that Daft Punk could very well beat Gaga.
Sal: And we have Kanye West to thank for it. And no, I'm not being sarcastic.
Eric: I don't give Grammy voters credit for anything, much less realizing that "Harder Better Faster Stronger" isn't a new song, much less that it came out eight years ago (plus or minus a couple of decades, if you're Edwin Birdsong).
BEST ROCK SONG
"Girls in Their Summer Clothes," Bruce Springsteen"House of Cards," Radiohead
"I Will Possess Your Heart," Death Cab for Cutie
"Sex on Fire," Kings of Leon
"Violet Hill," Coldplay
Sal: It's only right that the Grammy gods will try to rectify the Boss's Oscar snub by granting him his 19th Grammy (and fourth in this category). Anyway, he's got a better shot here than he does going up against Paul McCartney and Neil Young over in Best Solo Rock Vocal Performance.
Jonathan: It speaks to how across-the-board shitty the Rock field is this year that this is its best and most competitive category. Of course, the idea that Kings of Leon's arena-rock version of DJ Lady Tribe's VD rap from Bret Michaels' Herpes Bus qualifies as the best of anything— hell, it proves that the Kings can't even write competently about the one thing that they know, which is their own sluttiness—should have been enough reason to cancel the whole damn show. Springsteen wins by default because he always does, but I'd vote for Coldplay's kind of awesome Steely Dan song.
Eric: I can't wait for Coldplay to release their Gaucho.
BEST URBAN/ALTERNATIVE PERFORMANCE
"Say Goodbye to Love," Kenna
"Wanna Be," Maiysha
"Be OK," Chrisette Michele featuring will.i.am"Many Moons," Janelle Monae
"Lovin You (Music)," Wayna Featuring Kokayi
Eric: This category's creeping closer and closer to "Alternative" these days. Kenna and Janelle Monae are pretty far removed from India.Arie and Jill Scott. I like it (especially the Fisher Price funk of "Say Goodbye to Love"), but I imagine voters will probably hew close to the infant category's legacy of awarding soft, cerebral, world music-infused R&B. Mouth-clicking cover of Minnie Ripperton for the win.
Sal: Oh, geez. You mean I actually have to listen to music before commenting on a category? BRB…I like the Kenna song but the material on his second album pales in comparison to his debut. Plus, he was kind of an asshole when we interviewed him. I think Chrisette's got this in the bag.
Jonathan: After reading that interview, I was really glad that I passed on doing it, no matter how much I liked New Sacred Cow. I heard the Janelle Monae single about a week too late to vote for it on our year-end list, but I absolutely love it, even if its lack of will-dot-i-dot-am mainstream appeal will keep it from winning here.
BEST RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION
"American Boy," Estelle featuring Kanye West "Low," Flo Rida featuring T-Pain
"Green Light," John Legend & Andre 3000
"Got Money," Lil Wayne featuring T-Pain
"Superstar," Lupe Fiasco featuring Matthew Santos
Sal: "American Boy" seems like a sure thing here, but frighteningly, T-Pain statistically has a 40% chance of winning.
Eric: And he'll probably have a 60% chance of winning next year. If voters keep that threat in the back of their minds while contemplating their ballot, "American Boy" is probably a slam dunk. That said, "Green Light" represents the Grammy credential double-shot.
Jonathan: The way I predict this category is simple: Which song do members of my extended family have on their iPods? This year, that would be "Low," and their Flo Rida obsession has made for some truly horrific moments at family gatherings. Since I'd just as soon forget some of those moments, I'll agree that "American Boy" actually wins.
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
That Lonesome Song, Jamey JohnsonSleepless Nights, Patty Loveless
Troubadour, George Strait
Around the Bend, Randy Travis
Heaven, Heartache and the Power of Love, Trisha Yearwood
Eric: Once I was in a K-Mart and trying to decide whether I wanted to buy a book of Word Find or Sudoku puzzles. I heard a woman yell to the cashier, "I done lost all my gah-damned money!"
Sal: And I perused the music section of my parents' local Wal-Mart while I was home for the holidays and realized why Tower Records went out of business.
Jonathan: That's the angle the two of you are taking on this? Really?
Sal: You didn't really expect Eric to sit through five country albums, did you? And by "Eric" I mean "me."
Jonathan: Fair enough. Since I have heard all five of these albums, I'll say that this is, top-to-bottom, the strongest of all 793 Grammy categories this year. In fact, with the exceptions of an inexplicable nomination for Martina McBride (at the expense of Miranda Lambert, no less) and the annual indefensible nomination for Rascal Flatts, the entire Country field is damn near perfect. Yearwood, Loveless, and Johnson would all make for excellent, richly deserving winners—I'd vote for Yearwood's set, which marks her eighth nomination in this category since it was reintroduced in 1995 and is arguably her career-best work—and even the sets by Travis and Strait are better than some albums that have won in this category of late. I think Yearwood has a real shot at this, but Johnson, who has nearly all of the critical buzz this year, and Strait, who has never won a Grammy and is regarded as overdue for some make-up wins, are more likely to take it. Strait has sentiment and a significant commercial edge working in his favor, but I'm going with Johnson, whose gritty album wasn't nearly as lacking in effort as Strait's.
Eric: I'll say this, you annually make me wish I was remotely interested in country, but in this year of Adele/Jonas/T-Pain/reheated Daft Punk, I think we can truly take him at his word that this is the best Grammy has to offer.
Grammy Re-Crap
By: Alexa Camp On: 02/11/2008 12:47:03 In: Grammys Comments: 0
They tried to make her go to the Grammys and she said, well, something kinda unintelligible. Amy Winehouse's via-satellite performance—what was it, like 6 a.m. London time?—was one of the highlights of this year's Grammy telecast. Apparently Cuba Gooding Jr. was the only "celebrity" willing to get up that early (or stay up that late) just to introduce her. It could have been a train wreck ("It's an honor to be here," she concluded in street-urchin voice, though it's unclear where she thought she was), but instead Wino was vampy and coy and sounded great, especially during "Rehab." It's just too bad she didn't perform the song from the undisclosed rehabilitation facility where she spent her pre-Grammy days. Here's five things we learned last night:
1. Kanye West will never win Album of the Year as long as he continues to be a twat. The performance with Daft Punk was hot, but if you were really concerned about having enough time to dedicate your Best Rap Album award to your late Moms, you probably should have skipped the whole "I deserve Album of the Year" bullshit. At least Herbie Hancock's black, right? And "good taste"? Let's not talk about that jacket, 'Ye:
2. The Time needs to produce Rihanna's next album, which, if Jay-Z has anything to say about it, will probably be out by next week:
3. Jazz pianist prodigy Eldar, who was just 12 when he first performed at the Grammys in 2000, provided the soothing sounds during Recording Academy prez Neil Portnow's speech about songwriters' rights. Apparently the Academy's commitment to helping young people achieve their music dreams extends to Middle Earth!
4. If Sean Young were there during Andrea Bocelli's performance with Josh Groban, she probably would have yelled out, "Open your eyes already!" Sadly, Young said, "Yes, yes, yes!" to rehab and wasn't available for heckling. In tribute to his duet partner, Josh kept his eyes closed during his first verse:
5. The Academy loves to drag out the cadavers on Grammy night. It was extra special this time, though, since it was the 50th anniversary of the award show. Most horrifying: Jerry Lee Lewis, who looked like he was being propped up like a marionette and might use his own feces to scrawl something dirty on his piano like Philip Bosco in The Savages, and Little Richard, who's been wearing the same Halloween costume since the Grammys started giving out trophies half a century ago. Go Herbie!
They tried to make her go to the Grammys and she said, well, something kinda unintelligible. Amy Winehouse's via-satellite performance—what was it, like 6 a.m. London time?—was one of the highlights of this year's Grammy telecast. Apparently Cuba Gooding Jr. was the only "celebrity" willing to get up that early (or stay up that late) just to introduce her. It could have been a train wreck ("It's an honor to be here," she concluded in street-urchin voice, though it's unclear where she thought she was), but instead Wino was vampy and coy and sounded great, especially during "Rehab." It's just too bad she didn't perform the song from the undisclosed rehabilitation facility where she spent her pre-Grammy days. Here's five things we learned last night:
1. Kanye West will never win Album of the Year as long as he continues to be a twat. The performance with Daft Punk was hot, but if you were really concerned about having enough time to dedicate your Best Rap Album award to your late Moms, you probably should have skipped the whole "I deserve Album of the Year" bullshit. At least Herbie Hancock's black, right? And "good taste"? Let's not talk about that jacket, 'Ye:
2. The Time needs to produce Rihanna's next album, which, if Jay-Z has anything to say about it, will probably be out by next week:
3. Jazz pianist prodigy Eldar, who was just 12 when he first performed at the Grammys in 2000, provided the soothing sounds during Recording Academy prez Neil Portnow's speech about songwriters' rights. Apparently the Academy's commitment to helping young people achieve their music dreams extends to Middle Earth!
4. If Sean Young were there during Andrea Bocelli's performance with Josh Groban, she probably would have yelled out, "Open your eyes already!" Sadly, Young said, "Yes, yes, yes!" to rehab and wasn't available for heckling. In tribute to his duet partner, Josh kept his eyes closed during his first verse:
5. The Academy loves to drag out the cadavers on Grammy night. It was extra special this time, though, since it was the 50th anniversary of the award show. Most horrifying: Jerry Lee Lewis, who looked like he was being propped up like a marionette and might use his own feces to scrawl something dirty on his piano like Philip Bosco in The Savages, and Little Richard, who's been wearing the same Halloween costume since the Grammys started giving out trophies half a century ago. Go Herbie!
Forecast: The 50th Annual Grammy Awards
By: Sal Cinquemani On: 01/26/2008 08:26:38 In: Grammys Comments: 3
The Recording Academy no doubt has oodles of tedium in the works for us at this year's Grammy Awards ceremony. It is, after all, the golden anniversary of the granddaddy of music awards shows. If the show goes on (and as of this post, the WGA has decided not to picket), we can expect even more awkwardly assembled performances and a lot more montages and salutes to the likes of Clive Davis than ever before. (What's unclear is whether or not Miss Amy Winehouse will be on hand to add an even bigger sense of unpredictability to the proceedings.) Economy has never been the Academy's friend, but they've become increasing stingy when it comes to televised categories and a lack of writers might mean more trophies. Either way, we've decided to follow their lead and cherry-pick the categories we predict. Here are the 10 awards we found worth talking about:
RECORD OF THE YEAR
"Irreplaceable," Beyoncé
"The Pretender," Foo Fighters
"Umbrella," Rihanna featuring Jay-Z
"What Goes Around…Comes Around," Justin Timberlake
"Rehab," Amy Winehouse
Sal Cinquemani: Is it completely bonkers of me to think the Foo Fighters could benefit from an urban split a la Coldplay or Green Day? And more importantly, is it completely bonkers of me to use the word bonkers?
Eric Henderson: Only bonkers in the sense that Amy Winehouse would ever be considered "urban."
Jonathan Keefe: Bonkers was far and away the lamest of the Disney Afternoon cartoons, so if for no other reason, I'm inclined to say yes. Possibly the only thing working against the Foo Fighters' anti-urban angle is that "The Pretender" is neither a multi-format hit on par with "Clocks" or "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" nor obvious Grammy-bait like "Not Ready to Make Nice" or that comatose Ray Charles and Norah Jones duet.
Eric: It's never wise to bet against the split, but call me optimistic. I'm pretty sure most Grammy voters can even up the score a bit by ditching Beyoncé (for unintentionally referencing her song's disposable nature in the lyrics) and Justin Timberlake (for tardiness) and concentrating their votes on "Umbrella," the most of-the-moment choice. That's not, of course, to say she's got a shot in hell at winning.
Jonathan: There's a theory that NARAS hasn't voted for an urban-leaning single in this category because they often lack live instruments. If there's any truth to that, the killer live backing by the DAP Kings might give "Rehab" an edge. It's a tough call, though, because there's no way of knowing how much Wino's attempt to out-train-wreck Britney has alienated conservative older voters.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Echoes, Silence, Patience & Grace, Foo Fighters
These Days, Vince Gill
River: The Joni Letters, Herbie Hancock
Graduation, Kanye West
Back To Black, Amy Winehouse
Sal: Is it completely cynical of me to say that even if Kanye West didn't have this in the bag already, his mom sealed the deal?
Jonathan: I'd say Bono sealed the deal when he outright told NARAS to vote for Kanye's next album in his acceptance speech in this category two years ago. Lord knows they'll do anything Bono tells them to do.
Eric: Vince Gill's album may just be literally the biggest of the lot (though Kanye's ego certainly makes his album feel like at least a double LP). Amy Winehouse is the only one with anything resembling hipster credibility in this lineup, but who are we kidding? This is the Grammys. With that in mind, I hope with that little piece of my heart that still beats blood instead of irony that Herbie Hancock is the one who steals this award from Kanye. I can't think of a lamer or more opportunistic example of Starbucks one-stop-shopping, but Hancock's musicianship and technical skill are still about the only thing worth celebrating in the context of Grammys, even under middlebrow duress.
SONG OF THE YEAR
"Before He Cheats," Carrie Underwood
"Hey There Delilah," Plain White T's
"Like a Star," Corinne Bailey Rae
"Rehab," Amy Winehouse
"Umbrella," Rihanna featuring Jay-Z
Jonathan: So I guess this is where I'm supposed to make my annual and ultimately incorrect case that the obligatory poorly-written pop-country nominee will win? But I just don't see "Before He Cheats" having much of a chance here if it couldn't land a nomination for Record of the Year, which would've made a hell of a lot more sense. "Umbrella" is the closest this line-up comes to a modern standard based on how frequently it's been covered, but I have a hard time seeing the voters recognizing "ella ella ella eh eh eh" as the stupid-good hook that it is. "Delilah" is just gross, and it seems like the Blue Ribbon Committee are the only people in the world who really like Corinne Bailey Rae. Which leaves "Rehab," the best-written song in the category, which is also about as far removed from the drippy optimism that typically wins. So, basically, I can think of reasons why each of these songs won't win and no reasons why one of them has to. "Like a Star," maybe? In addition to being the most inexplicable nominee, it's the most conservative choice by far.
Eric: I haven't gone back to check the stats or anything, but I feel like the one which made the smallest impact on the pop charts is the one that usually wins. That and the notion that Corinne Bailey Rae's star arguably rose thanks to her previous Grammy nods (hello, perceived relevance!) are working in her favor for sure.
Sal: I guess I'm going to have to completely disagree with you guys here. I just don't see Corinne Bailey Rae winning this. I don't even know why she was nominated…again. But maybe that means I'm just out of touch with the out-of-touchers.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Feist
Ledisi
Paramore
Taylor Swift
Amy Winehouse
Eric: Well, this category should be pretty easy to pick. Never bet against the fledgling female soloist…Oh, shit.
Jonathan: Nightmare scenario, which I don't think is at all far-fetched: Voters who want to vote for someone legitimately talented (sorry, Paramore!) that they've actually heard of (sorry, Ledisi!) but who are put off by Wino's meltdown defect to Feist, resulting in a split-vote that ends up benefiting those who go for the one act in the group who's been able to move a shit-ton of shit records. Honestly, it's not even a matter of comparing relative degrees of badness, like saying that Ashanti has a marginally better voice than Ciara, and I know that she's a child and all, which makes it mean to say so, but Taylor Swift is just awful:
Sal: God moved to Nashville? That explains a lot. Taylor Swift is like a country version of Avril Lavigne.
Jonathan: She can't sing, and the fact that she's a teenager isn't an excuse for the fact that her songs make Jewel sound like Dolly Parton. My only hope is that she turns out like Felicity—once she cuts her mop of curly hair, her audience of teenage girls will realize they didn't like her for the reasons they thought they did and move on to something better. So I'm really hoping that Winehouse hasn't alienated too many people.
Sal: Wino doesn't seem to have a firm grip on much these days, but it's pretty safe to say that she snagged this award about a year ago.
Eric: She shagged this award last year too. I think Feist has the iPhone demographic locked up, which means she should probably come in fourth.
BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Candyman," Christina Aguilera
"1234," Feist
"Big Girls Don't Cry," Fergie
"Say It Right," Nelly Furtado
"Rehab," Amy Winehouse
Jonathan:: I think this one is Winehouse's safest bet, and she'd get my vote, though I like both Furtado and Feist's tracks quite a lot too. And even "Candyman" is relatively subdued by Mama Aguilera's throat-shredding standards.
Sal: Based solely on the literal interpretation of this category title (which we know is not the way the academy actually votes), I'd give it to Feist. It's certainly not my favorite song of hers, but she displays a nice range and really effective use of different tones throughout. But obviously Amy's "no, no, no" is a refusal that will be hard to refuse. Unless, you know, you're actually Amy Winehouse, and then it's something like "Um, okay, yeah, I guess."
Jonathan:: So…same situation as Best New Artist, but with Fergie as the beneficiary this time? It's possible, but "Big Girls Don't Cry" isn't as memorably bad as this:
Sal: All I have to say about that is, thank God for crystal meth.
Eric: Maybe they'll vote for the one who exerts the most effort to overcome her lack of talent. Of course, by that reasoning, Fergie would also be a frontrunner for best supporting actress in Planet Terror.
BEST DANCE RECORDING
"Do It Again," The Chemical Brothers
"D.A.N.C.E.," Justice
"Love Today," Mika
"Don't Stop the Music," Rihanna
"LoveStoned/I Think She Knows," Justin Timberlake
Sal: This category is filled entirely with squeaky voices and falsetto. I have no idea what that means, but perhaps the most masculine of the bunch will win. So, congratulations…Rihanna?
Eric: I'm glad we're covering this category instead of dance album, where a bona fide rock album is apparently competing. As someone whose favorite song to neck-snap to last year was by !!!, and as someone who thinks the average Grammy voter is more likely to get their 4/4 on over in the polka categories, I still say this points to a certain lack of vitality in the scene.
Jonathan: I liked Mika a whole lot better when he was stripping off his skin and throwing it at a bunch of rollerskating models. If Basement Jaxx can win a Grammy and LCD Soundsystem can manage a couple of nominations, I think the voters are hip enough to give this to Justice. Who, incidentally, did a great remix of "LoveStoned."
BEST ROCK PERFORMANCE BY A DUO OR GROUP WITH VOCALS
"It's Not Over," Daughtry
"Working Class Hero," Green Day
"If Everyone Cared," Nickelback
"Instant Karma," U2
"Icky Thump," The White Stripes
Sal: I'd like to think that Green Day and U2 paying homage to John Lennon for Darfur would create a split in favor of the White Stripes, but why do I think Nickelback will benefit most?
Jonathan: Nickelback, though, will lose some votes to Jesusy, Bald Nickelback. So there are two sets of split-votes here—Green Day and U2's appeals to Baby Boomers and Don Cheadle, and then Nickelback versus Daughtry. Leaving the only sane choice: the White Stripes.
Eric: U2 covers a Beatle and you guys are arguing it's not an instant winner?
Jonathan: On principle, yes. But…um…I can't think of a single counter-argument to Eric's point.
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
Alright, Still…, Lily Allen
Neon Bible, Arcade Fire
Volta, Björk
Wincing the Night Away, The Shins
Icky Thump, The White Stripes
Sal: Aside from the fact that Lily Allen's Alright, Still… is possibly my least favorite album of last year, its inclusion in this category is dubious at best. Björk is fast becoming less a problem child than a complete disappointment, so my pick is Neon Bible. If they couldn't beat the White Stripes in this category two years ago, though, can they do it now?
Jonathan: Yeah, as far as category fraud goes, Lily Allen is to the Grammys as Casey Affleck is to Oscars. Except that I can see why people like what Affleck did. The Shins should also have been submitted in the Pop field, but it's nice to see them earn some two-albums-overdue recognition. Arcade Fire are no longer as off-the-mainstream-radar as they were when Funeral lost in this category to Get Behind Me Satan two years ago, so I think they're a good bet to take this.
Eric: Thanks, Grammys, for reminding me that Björk never won this award in the 1990s...you know, when she deserved to. Considering the timetable most artists are on when they actually do win this award, I wouldn't rule her completely out. Then again, this award hasn't been won by a female (or even a female-fronted group) since Sinead O'Connor won the category's charter award in 1990—not by Björk, not by Tori Amos, not by PJ Harvey, not by Fiona Apple. Some alternative.
BEST RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION
"I Wanna Love You," Akon featuring Snoop Dogg
"Kiss, Kiss," Chris Brown & T-Pain
"Let It Go," Keyshia Cole featuring Missy Elliott & Lil' Kim
"Umbrella," Rihanna featuring Jay-Z
"Good Life," Kanye West featuring T-Pain
Sal: The most obvious pick here ironically has the least collaboration. Rihanna allegedly didn't even know Jay-Z had tacked on his verse to the beginning of the track as a "gift" until the producers played the final product for her.
Jonathan: All I ask for is a reaction shot from Beyoncé if they present this one to Rihanna and Jay-Z on the telecast.
Eric: Another classic case of the song I like best in multiple categories winning probably its only award of the evening, and doing it in the one category where I actually like other another candidate more. "Umbrella" was one of the only things that kept my ears momentarily away from house and Maurice Ravel in 2007, but I'll still bump it to "Let It Go" long into 2008.
BEST FEMALE COUNTRY VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Simple Love," Alison Krauss
"Famous in a Small Town," Miranda Lambert
"Nothin' Better To Do," LeAnn Rimes
"Before He Cheats," Carrie Underwood
"Heaven, Heartache and the Power of Love," Trisha Yearwood
Sal: Again, if we're talking actual Vocal Performance, Alison Krauss's understated "Simple Love" would be my pick, but LeAnn Rimes obviously tried to swallow the microphone on "Nothin' Better To Do," which also happens to be the best produced track here.
Jonathan: I love the idea of you voluntarily listening to five country songs, Sal. But if you were ever going to listen to a set of five, you could do a whole lot worse than this line-up, which is the strongest since at least 1992. Lambert, who should've broken into the boys' club Best Country Album category, is the longest-shot here, but "Gunpowder and Lead," her fastest-rising single to date, will likely put her in good position to win next year. Yearwood would, hands down, be my pick for giving the best vocal performance of the lot, but the single wasn't as big a hit as it deserved to be. Still, she really should have won this category for more than just "How Do I Live." Rimes has come a long way since her version of that same song lost to Yearwood's, but a win with "Nothin' Better to Do," which really is a great single, would be a major upset. That leaves the two frontrunners—Krauss, nominated for yet another reiteration of the kind of lovely, tasteful-to-a-fault performance that she always gives and that NARAS evidently doesn't mind hearing repeatedly, and Underwood, nominated for the biggest hit of the group. It's foolhardy to bet against Krauss at the Grammys—I imagine there are going to be quite a few surprised pop fans when she and Robert Plant beat Beyoncé and Shakira for Pop Collaboration—and the bottom eventually has to fall out of Underwood's lengthy awards-show dominance, but "Before He Cheats" is just too massive not to win.
Sal: I wouldn't mind seeing Plant and Krauss take Pop Collaboration for "Gone Gone Gone (Done Moved On)." I caught a glimpse of the video the other night on CMT. And then it was followed by Trace Adkins's "I Got My Game On" and I decided that my tryst with country music would be shorter-lived than a coed's bisexual phase.
The Recording Academy no doubt has oodles of tedium in the works for us at this year's Grammy Awards ceremony. It is, after all, the golden anniversary of the granddaddy of music awards shows. If the show goes on (and as of this post, the WGA has decided not to picket), we can expect even more awkwardly assembled performances and a lot more montages and salutes to the likes of Clive Davis than ever before. (What's unclear is whether or not Miss Amy Winehouse will be on hand to add an even bigger sense of unpredictability to the proceedings.) Economy has never been the Academy's friend, but they've become increasing stingy when it comes to televised categories and a lack of writers might mean more trophies. Either way, we've decided to follow their lead and cherry-pick the categories we predict. Here are the 10 awards we found worth talking about:
RECORD OF THE YEAR
"Irreplaceable," Beyoncé
"The Pretender," Foo Fighters
"Umbrella," Rihanna featuring Jay-Z
"What Goes Around…Comes Around," Justin Timberlake
"Rehab," Amy WinehouseSal Cinquemani: Is it completely bonkers of me to think the Foo Fighters could benefit from an urban split a la Coldplay or Green Day? And more importantly, is it completely bonkers of me to use the word bonkers?
Eric Henderson: Only bonkers in the sense that Amy Winehouse would ever be considered "urban."
Jonathan Keefe: Bonkers was far and away the lamest of the Disney Afternoon cartoons, so if for no other reason, I'm inclined to say yes. Possibly the only thing working against the Foo Fighters' anti-urban angle is that "The Pretender" is neither a multi-format hit on par with "Clocks" or "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" nor obvious Grammy-bait like "Not Ready to Make Nice" or that comatose Ray Charles and Norah Jones duet.
Eric: It's never wise to bet against the split, but call me optimistic. I'm pretty sure most Grammy voters can even up the score a bit by ditching Beyoncé (for unintentionally referencing her song's disposable nature in the lyrics) and Justin Timberlake (for tardiness) and concentrating their votes on "Umbrella," the most of-the-moment choice. That's not, of course, to say she's got a shot in hell at winning.
Jonathan: There's a theory that NARAS hasn't voted for an urban-leaning single in this category because they often lack live instruments. If there's any truth to that, the killer live backing by the DAP Kings might give "Rehab" an edge. It's a tough call, though, because there's no way of knowing how much Wino's attempt to out-train-wreck Britney has alienated conservative older voters.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Echoes, Silence, Patience & Grace, Foo Fighters
These Days, Vince Gill
River: The Joni Letters, Herbie Hancock
Graduation, Kanye WestBack To Black, Amy Winehouse
Sal: Is it completely cynical of me to say that even if Kanye West didn't have this in the bag already, his mom sealed the deal?
Jonathan: I'd say Bono sealed the deal when he outright told NARAS to vote for Kanye's next album in his acceptance speech in this category two years ago. Lord knows they'll do anything Bono tells them to do.
Eric: Vince Gill's album may just be literally the biggest of the lot (though Kanye's ego certainly makes his album feel like at least a double LP). Amy Winehouse is the only one with anything resembling hipster credibility in this lineup, but who are we kidding? This is the Grammys. With that in mind, I hope with that little piece of my heart that still beats blood instead of irony that Herbie Hancock is the one who steals this award from Kanye. I can't think of a lamer or more opportunistic example of Starbucks one-stop-shopping, but Hancock's musicianship and technical skill are still about the only thing worth celebrating in the context of Grammys, even under middlebrow duress.
SONG OF THE YEAR
"Before He Cheats," Carrie Underwood
"Hey There Delilah," Plain White T's
"Like a Star," Corinne Bailey Rae
"Rehab," Amy Winehouse "Umbrella," Rihanna featuring Jay-Z
Jonathan: So I guess this is where I'm supposed to make my annual and ultimately incorrect case that the obligatory poorly-written pop-country nominee will win? But I just don't see "Before He Cheats" having much of a chance here if it couldn't land a nomination for Record of the Year, which would've made a hell of a lot more sense. "Umbrella" is the closest this line-up comes to a modern standard based on how frequently it's been covered, but I have a hard time seeing the voters recognizing "ella ella ella eh eh eh" as the stupid-good hook that it is. "Delilah" is just gross, and it seems like the Blue Ribbon Committee are the only people in the world who really like Corinne Bailey Rae. Which leaves "Rehab," the best-written song in the category, which is also about as far removed from the drippy optimism that typically wins. So, basically, I can think of reasons why each of these songs won't win and no reasons why one of them has to. "Like a Star," maybe? In addition to being the most inexplicable nominee, it's the most conservative choice by far.
Eric: I haven't gone back to check the stats or anything, but I feel like the one which made the smallest impact on the pop charts is the one that usually wins. That and the notion that Corinne Bailey Rae's star arguably rose thanks to her previous Grammy nods (hello, perceived relevance!) are working in her favor for sure.
Sal: I guess I'm going to have to completely disagree with you guys here. I just don't see Corinne Bailey Rae winning this. I don't even know why she was nominated…again. But maybe that means I'm just out of touch with the out-of-touchers.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Feist
Ledisi
Paramore
Taylor Swift
Amy WinehouseEric: Well, this category should be pretty easy to pick. Never bet against the fledgling female soloist…Oh, shit.
Jonathan: Nightmare scenario, which I don't think is at all far-fetched: Voters who want to vote for someone legitimately talented (sorry, Paramore!) that they've actually heard of (sorry, Ledisi!) but who are put off by Wino's meltdown defect to Feist, resulting in a split-vote that ends up benefiting those who go for the one act in the group who's been able to move a shit-ton of shit records. Honestly, it's not even a matter of comparing relative degrees of badness, like saying that Ashanti has a marginally better voice than Ciara, and I know that she's a child and all, which makes it mean to say so, but Taylor Swift is just awful:
Sal: God moved to Nashville? That explains a lot. Taylor Swift is like a country version of Avril Lavigne.
Jonathan: She can't sing, and the fact that she's a teenager isn't an excuse for the fact that her songs make Jewel sound like Dolly Parton. My only hope is that she turns out like Felicity—once she cuts her mop of curly hair, her audience of teenage girls will realize they didn't like her for the reasons they thought they did and move on to something better. So I'm really hoping that Winehouse hasn't alienated too many people.
Sal: Wino doesn't seem to have a firm grip on much these days, but it's pretty safe to say that she snagged this award about a year ago.
Eric: She shagged this award last year too. I think Feist has the iPhone demographic locked up, which means she should probably come in fourth.
BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Candyman," Christina Aguilera
"1234," Feist
"Big Girls Don't Cry," Fergie
"Say It Right," Nelly Furtado
"Rehab," Amy WinehouseJonathan:: I think this one is Winehouse's safest bet, and she'd get my vote, though I like both Furtado and Feist's tracks quite a lot too. And even "Candyman" is relatively subdued by Mama Aguilera's throat-shredding standards.
Sal: Based solely on the literal interpretation of this category title (which we know is not the way the academy actually votes), I'd give it to Feist. It's certainly not my favorite song of hers, but she displays a nice range and really effective use of different tones throughout. But obviously Amy's "no, no, no" is a refusal that will be hard to refuse. Unless, you know, you're actually Amy Winehouse, and then it's something like "Um, okay, yeah, I guess."
Jonathan:: So…same situation as Best New Artist, but with Fergie as the beneficiary this time? It's possible, but "Big Girls Don't Cry" isn't as memorably bad as this:
Sal: All I have to say about that is, thank God for crystal meth.
Eric: Maybe they'll vote for the one who exerts the most effort to overcome her lack of talent. Of course, by that reasoning, Fergie would also be a frontrunner for best supporting actress in Planet Terror.
BEST DANCE RECORDING
"Do It Again," The Chemical Brothers
"D.A.N.C.E.," Justice
"Love Today," Mika
"Don't Stop the Music," Rihanna"LoveStoned/I Think She Knows," Justin Timberlake
Sal: This category is filled entirely with squeaky voices and falsetto. I have no idea what that means, but perhaps the most masculine of the bunch will win. So, congratulations…Rihanna?
Eric: I'm glad we're covering this category instead of dance album, where a bona fide rock album is apparently competing. As someone whose favorite song to neck-snap to last year was by !!!, and as someone who thinks the average Grammy voter is more likely to get their 4/4 on over in the polka categories, I still say this points to a certain lack of vitality in the scene.
Jonathan: I liked Mika a whole lot better when he was stripping off his skin and throwing it at a bunch of rollerskating models. If Basement Jaxx can win a Grammy and LCD Soundsystem can manage a couple of nominations, I think the voters are hip enough to give this to Justice. Who, incidentally, did a great remix of "LoveStoned."
BEST ROCK PERFORMANCE BY A DUO OR GROUP WITH VOCALS
"It's Not Over," Daughtry
"Working Class Hero," Green Day
"If Everyone Cared," Nickelback
"Instant Karma," U2"Icky Thump," The White Stripes
Sal: I'd like to think that Green Day and U2 paying homage to John Lennon for Darfur would create a split in favor of the White Stripes, but why do I think Nickelback will benefit most?
Jonathan: Nickelback, though, will lose some votes to Jesusy, Bald Nickelback. So there are two sets of split-votes here—Green Day and U2's appeals to Baby Boomers and Don Cheadle, and then Nickelback versus Daughtry. Leaving the only sane choice: the White Stripes.
Eric: U2 covers a Beatle and you guys are arguing it's not an instant winner?
Jonathan: On principle, yes. But…um…I can't think of a single counter-argument to Eric's point.
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
Alright, Still…, Lily Allen
Neon Bible, Arcade FireVolta, Björk
Wincing the Night Away, The Shins
Icky Thump, The White Stripes
Sal: Aside from the fact that Lily Allen's Alright, Still… is possibly my least favorite album of last year, its inclusion in this category is dubious at best. Björk is fast becoming less a problem child than a complete disappointment, so my pick is Neon Bible. If they couldn't beat the White Stripes in this category two years ago, though, can they do it now?
Jonathan: Yeah, as far as category fraud goes, Lily Allen is to the Grammys as Casey Affleck is to Oscars. Except that I can see why people like what Affleck did. The Shins should also have been submitted in the Pop field, but it's nice to see them earn some two-albums-overdue recognition. Arcade Fire are no longer as off-the-mainstream-radar as they were when Funeral lost in this category to Get Behind Me Satan two years ago, so I think they're a good bet to take this.
Eric: Thanks, Grammys, for reminding me that Björk never won this award in the 1990s...you know, when she deserved to. Considering the timetable most artists are on when they actually do win this award, I wouldn't rule her completely out. Then again, this award hasn't been won by a female (or even a female-fronted group) since Sinead O'Connor won the category's charter award in 1990—not by Björk, not by Tori Amos, not by PJ Harvey, not by Fiona Apple. Some alternative.
BEST RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION
"I Wanna Love You," Akon featuring Snoop Dogg
"Kiss, Kiss," Chris Brown & T-Pain
"Let It Go," Keyshia Cole featuring Missy Elliott & Lil' Kim
"Umbrella," Rihanna featuring Jay-Z"Good Life," Kanye West featuring T-Pain
Sal: The most obvious pick here ironically has the least collaboration. Rihanna allegedly didn't even know Jay-Z had tacked on his verse to the beginning of the track as a "gift" until the producers played the final product for her.
Jonathan: All I ask for is a reaction shot from Beyoncé if they present this one to Rihanna and Jay-Z on the telecast.
Eric: Another classic case of the song I like best in multiple categories winning probably its only award of the evening, and doing it in the one category where I actually like other another candidate more. "Umbrella" was one of the only things that kept my ears momentarily away from house and Maurice Ravel in 2007, but I'll still bump it to "Let It Go" long into 2008.
BEST FEMALE COUNTRY VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Simple Love," Alison Krauss
"Famous in a Small Town," Miranda Lambert
"Nothin' Better To Do," LeAnn Rimes
"Before He Cheats," Carrie Underwood"Heaven, Heartache and the Power of Love," Trisha Yearwood
Sal: Again, if we're talking actual Vocal Performance, Alison Krauss's understated "Simple Love" would be my pick, but LeAnn Rimes obviously tried to swallow the microphone on "Nothin' Better To Do," which also happens to be the best produced track here.
Jonathan: I love the idea of you voluntarily listening to five country songs, Sal. But if you were ever going to listen to a set of five, you could do a whole lot worse than this line-up, which is the strongest since at least 1992. Lambert, who should've broken into the boys' club Best Country Album category, is the longest-shot here, but "Gunpowder and Lead," her fastest-rising single to date, will likely put her in good position to win next year. Yearwood would, hands down, be my pick for giving the best vocal performance of the lot, but the single wasn't as big a hit as it deserved to be. Still, she really should have won this category for more than just "How Do I Live." Rimes has come a long way since her version of that same song lost to Yearwood's, but a win with "Nothin' Better to Do," which really is a great single, would be a major upset. That leaves the two frontrunners—Krauss, nominated for yet another reiteration of the kind of lovely, tasteful-to-a-fault performance that she always gives and that NARAS evidently doesn't mind hearing repeatedly, and Underwood, nominated for the biggest hit of the group. It's foolhardy to bet against Krauss at the Grammys—I imagine there are going to be quite a few surprised pop fans when she and Robert Plant beat Beyoncé and Shakira for Pop Collaboration—and the bottom eventually has to fall out of Underwood's lengthy awards-show dominance, but "Before He Cheats" is just too massive not to win.
Sal: I wouldn't mind seeing Plant and Krauss take Pop Collaboration for "Gone Gone Gone (Done Moved On)." I caught a glimpse of the video the other night on CMT. And then it was followed by Trace Adkins's "I Got My Game On" and I decided that my tryst with country music would be shorter-lived than a coed's bisexual phase.
Ready to Make Nice?
By: Sal Cinquemani On: 02/12/2007 14:23:33 In: Grammys Comments: 0
I've always liked the Dixie Chicks—if not for their music then for their outspokenness and refusal to play by Nashville's rules. So it was heartening to see them vindicated at the Grammy Awards last night after being vilified and unfairly maligned simply because their opinions were different from those of most country music fans and radio programmers. But while I find nothing particularly offensive or fantastic about Taking The Long Way, you'd be kidding yourself if you thought their wins, particularly in the general field categories, was anything other than political. As I said in our Grammy winner predictions: "Now that America has come to its senses perhaps [the Academy] should re-title [the Album of the Year] category We're Sorry, You Were Right All Along And Now Here's A Grammy." Hell, I would have voted for them.
When Slant music scribe Jonathan Keefe submitted his review of the album a full one month after its street date, I was concerned it would get lost in the shuffle of newer releases. Not to mention, almost every other major publication had already gone on record praising the Chicks' supposedly bold musical statement. While I largely disagreed with Keefe's take on the album, I thought it was 2,500 words of music criticism worth considering. Keefe's wasn't the only negative review (it averages a good but not stellar 72% on Metacritic), but it was certainly the most critical and in-depth analysis of the Chicks' foray into post-Country and the album managed to crack the Top 20 of this year's emaciated Village Voice Pazz & Jop Critics Poll, which was unveiled this week.
Keefe's review was featured prominently but, surprisingly, we didn't receive as much flack as I expected. Following our predictions and particularly after the Dixie Chicks' sweep last night, however, fans of the album took it upon themselves to let us know just what they thought of Keefe and his review. One email suggested he quit writing for Slant or issue a public apology to the Dixie Chicks. As if winning Album of the Year at the Grammys makes an album "good" or a negative review "wrong." Most troubling is the fact that these ostensible Dixie Chicks fans, who presumably support the trio's right to free speech and political dissension, are completely oblivious to their own hypocrisy. I doubt they think Natalie Maines should quit her job or issue an apology to George W. Bush.
One reader, a fellow critic and former editor of a certain legendary publication Keefe criticized in his review, offered this: "I couldn't disagree more with Keefe's conclusion, but his persuasive argument made me think about mine." Isn't that the whole point? One would think that fans of such opinionated, forthright artists would respect, even encourage, opposing views and welcome the discussions they might provoke. Perhaps the first paragraph of Keefe's review says it best:
"There's a trend in current pop culture criticism toward 'consumer reviews,' which amount to little more than recitations of a few key details and two or three descriptive phrases, often lifted verbatim from a press kit, to give the 'average' reader an idea of whether or not he or she might like to spend his or her hard-earned money on the product. No one wants to read analyses of form or content or broader context; they want a star rating that validates their own tastes. It's the reason Roger Ebert and Rolling Stone give three stars or better ratings to fully three-quarters of what they review—it's not that the products in question really merit such praise, it's that in trying to validate everyone else's opinions, you can't really have one of your own. It's a reductive and ugly line of unthinking, really, but buried in it is the idea that there's a certain value to critical objectivity. Since any fanboy can set up a website, it's important to establish some distance, right?"
I've always liked the Dixie Chicks—if not for their music then for their outspokenness and refusal to play by Nashville's rules. So it was heartening to see them vindicated at the Grammy Awards last night after being vilified and unfairly maligned simply because their opinions were different from those of most country music fans and radio programmers. But while I find nothing particularly offensive or fantastic about Taking The Long Way, you'd be kidding yourself if you thought their wins, particularly in the general field categories, was anything other than political. As I said in our Grammy winner predictions: "Now that America has come to its senses perhaps [the Academy] should re-title [the Album of the Year] category We're Sorry, You Were Right All Along And Now Here's A Grammy." Hell, I would have voted for them.
When Slant music scribe Jonathan Keefe submitted his review of the album a full one month after its street date, I was concerned it would get lost in the shuffle of newer releases. Not to mention, almost every other major publication had already gone on record praising the Chicks' supposedly bold musical statement. While I largely disagreed with Keefe's take on the album, I thought it was 2,500 words of music criticism worth considering. Keefe's wasn't the only negative review (it averages a good but not stellar 72% on Metacritic), but it was certainly the most critical and in-depth analysis of the Chicks' foray into post-Country and the album managed to crack the Top 20 of this year's emaciated Village Voice Pazz & Jop Critics Poll, which was unveiled this week.
Keefe's review was featured prominently but, surprisingly, we didn't receive as much flack as I expected. Following our predictions and particularly after the Dixie Chicks' sweep last night, however, fans of the album took it upon themselves to let us know just what they thought of Keefe and his review. One email suggested he quit writing for Slant or issue a public apology to the Dixie Chicks. As if winning Album of the Year at the Grammys makes an album "good" or a negative review "wrong." Most troubling is the fact that these ostensible Dixie Chicks fans, who presumably support the trio's right to free speech and political dissension, are completely oblivious to their own hypocrisy. I doubt they think Natalie Maines should quit her job or issue an apology to George W. Bush.
One reader, a fellow critic and former editor of a certain legendary publication Keefe criticized in his review, offered this: "I couldn't disagree more with Keefe's conclusion, but his persuasive argument made me think about mine." Isn't that the whole point? One would think that fans of such opinionated, forthright artists would respect, even encourage, opposing views and welcome the discussions they might provoke. Perhaps the first paragraph of Keefe's review says it best:
"There's a trend in current pop culture criticism toward 'consumer reviews,' which amount to little more than recitations of a few key details and two or three descriptive phrases, often lifted verbatim from a press kit, to give the 'average' reader an idea of whether or not he or she might like to spend his or her hard-earned money on the product. No one wants to read analyses of form or content or broader context; they want a star rating that validates their own tastes. It's the reason Roger Ebert and Rolling Stone give three stars or better ratings to fully three-quarters of what they review—it's not that the products in question really merit such praise, it's that in trying to validate everyone else's opinions, you can't really have one of your own. It's a reductive and ugly line of unthinking, really, but buried in it is the idea that there's a certain value to critical objectivity. Since any fanboy can set up a website, it's important to establish some distance, right?"
Forecast: The 49th Annual Grammy Awards
By: Sal Cinquemani On: 01/29/2007 14:33:52 In: Grammys Comments: 15
RECORD OF THE YEAR
"Be Without You," Mary J. Blige
"You're Beautiful," James Blunt
"Not Ready To Make Nice," Dixie Chicks
"Crazy," Gnarls Barkley
"Put Your Records On," Corinne Bailey Rae
Sal Cinquemani: Is there a general consensus in the industry that Mary J. Blige is owed something?
Jonathan Keefe: As though performing on the American Idol finale with that kid People profiled for getting dental veneers (Elliott, lest any of the "Yaminions" send me hate-mail) isn't its own reward.
Eric Henderson: It plays out like so many other music stories: she starts getting props just for hanging around long enough for her music to be vapid and middlebrow.
Sal: "Crazy" is getting lots of AC attention, which means it's reached critical mass-acceptance in the heartland. It's crossed over in a big way.
Eric: Yeah, with the Closet Freak himself singing falsetto and Danger Mouse producing, "Crazy" is simultaneously as cutting edge and as Downy soft as you want it to be. Demographically speaking, it's practically schizo in its appeal. Dixie Chicks are the only potential spoilers, if momentum snowballs their way.
Jonathan: "Crazy" does what "Hey Ya!," "Crazy In Love," and "Work It" before it couldn't, becoming the first crossover pop single that owes a substantial debt to hip-hop to win Record of the Year. Had anything Timbaland produced been nominated, there would've been another one of the vote-splits that have allowed "Clocks," "Boulevard Of Broken Dreams," and that comatose Ray Charles/Norah Jones duet to win the last three years. This time, it's the limp AC tracks—which fully covers both Blige and Dixie Chicks, conveniently enough—that split the votes, to the benefit of what happens to be the best "record" of the lot.
Eric: Did they nominate this instantly forgettable Corinne Bailey Rae tune because it validates the category's title, when it would make more sense today to switch it to "Single of the Year" or "Track of the Year"?
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Taking The Long Way, Dixie Chicks
St. Elsewhere, Gnarls Barkley
Continuum, John Mayer
Stadium Arcadium, Red Hot Chili Peppers
FutureSex/LoveSounds, Justin Timberlake
Sal: Justin's album is the biggest seller here but a sexybacklash—and the fact that the academy hasn't awarded a pop album in this category in a decade—could spoil things for him. He himself said the Chili Peppers will win but I don't see that happening. Chicks with Dix, on the other hand, showed a different (that is, non-narcotic) kind of perseverance and survival, and while they haven't been around as long as Anthony Kiedis's West Coast band, Texas might be ripe for a comeback after everything Bush has done for its image. Now that America has come to its senses perhaps they should re-title this category We're Sorry, You Were Right All Along And Now Here's A Grammy.
Eric: Mary J. Blige is still scowling, somewhere. The only one I can see snatching it away from the Chicks is John Mayer, who seems to win almost every time he gets nominated. "Waiting On The World To Change" might pick up a few anti-Bush votes for those who prefer passive-aggressive political statements.
Jonathan: The easy answer is that the two urban-pop albums by Robin Gibb and Gnarls Barkley (both of which would be deserving winners, incidentally) cancel each other out, as do the dull VH1 rock albums by Red Hot Chili Peppers and Mayer, thereby keeping any one album from acting as a spoiler to The Dixie Chicks' frontrunner status. The more accurate answer is that a vote for The Dixie Chicks is a vote for NARAS themselves, since The Dixie Chicks haven't shut up (and sung) in the last year about wanting anything other than to be validated by openly left-leaning music industry veterans who only like country music when it doesn't sound a damn thing like country music at all because they're better people than those who do like country music. Begging this exact demographic for their approval didn't work for Kanye West last year, but his album wasn't as airquotes important as Taking the Long Way and the election results hadn't yet confirmed that it's safe to give major awards to liberals again.
SONG OF THE YEAR
"Be Without You," Mary J. Blige
"Jesus, Take The Wheel," Carrie Underwood
"Not Ready To Make Nice," Dixie Chicks
"Put Your Records On," Corinne Bailey Rae
"You're Beautiful," James Blunt
Sal: You've got red-state country (Carrie Underwood's "Jesus, Take The Wheel") vs. blue-state country (Dixie Chicks' "Not Ready To Make Nice"). It's like the '04 election all over again.
Eric: Unless Dixie Chicks win, in which case it's the '06 election all over again.
Sal: People seem to love Mary's single, but a win for that song would be a real slap in the face to Mariah and "We Belong Together," without which "Be Without You" wouldn't be.
Jonathan: True, but does NARAS really feel so bad about slapping Mariah around? But, like Mariah last year, I think Blige will be shut out of the General Field awards.
Eric: The only one I can rule out is Carrie Underwood's, since she had no hand in writing the song. Otherwise, "You're Beautiful" seems like it has the "tomorrow's lounge lizard standards" vibe that seems to win this category so often.
Jonathan: It's impossible to imagine any jazz singers trying to croon "Not Ready to Make Nice" 10 years from now. Add that to the fact that this category hasn't gone to a "country" song since 1982 and has gone to a woman just twice in the last 10 years (Shawn Colvin in 1997 and Alicia Keys in 2001, as Norah Jones didn't write "Don't Know Why"), and Blunt has to be considered the slight favorite.
BEST NEW ARTIST
James Blunt
Chris Brown
Imogen Heap
Corinne Bailey Rae
Carrie Underwood
Sal: I'm a little baffled by Imogen Heap's inclusion here. She's been around since the late '90s, released an album with her band Frou Frou in 2002, and her latest solo record came out during last year's Grammy eligibility period. Still, she probably deserves to win in this lot.
Eric: Not only that, but Carrie Underwood won American Idol the season before last. But it's all part and parcel of the category that, in awards show terms, has about as much relevance as winning Miss Golden Globe.
Jonathan: Underwood is the most likely of the five to maintain a lengthy career, but that doesn't mean she's given any real clues to this point as to the type of "artist" she is beyond "one who can sell 5 million albums that she had a minimal amount of creative input in crafting." Even though part of me thinks that they might as well just give the Grammy to Simon Cowell for recognizing exactly how marketable Underwood is, I still think she'll take this one. Imogen Heap can take consolation in being able to do this.
Sal: Let's see how a Grammy nomination and inevitable mainstream attention will ruin that kind of talent.
BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Ain't No Other Man," Christina Aguilera
"Unwritten," Natasha Bedingfield
"You Can Close Your Eyes," Sheryl Crow
"Stupid Girls," Pink
"Black Horse And The Cherry Tree," KT Tunstall
Eric: You can close your eyes and still know that Sheryl Crow will be nominated in this category from now until she decides to have a Nelly Furtado makeover.
Jonathan: She's definitely replaced Bonnie Raitt as the perennial fifth nominee here, getting in for something that was heard by the exact number of people needed to get her on the shortlist and leaving the rest of us to wonder how that manages to be a bigger number than the total of people who voted for Madonna.
Sal: For the same reason Cee-Lo and Dangermouse will go home with enough Grammy gold for both their mantles, dark horse KT Tunstall could secure a surprise win. Tunstall's music has been a fixture on AC radio (and half a dozen TV shows) since the ailing Virgin Records started pushing the Scottish singer-songwriter down our throats a year ago. She's nothing special and she's got no other nominations (not even a Best New Artist nod, despite being one of the nominee announcers), but her only real competition, Christina Aguilera, hasn't exactly blown up the charts.
Jonathan: I'd go with "Black Horse & The Cherry Tree" here if not for the fact that Corinne Bailey Rae took all three of the General Field nominations that I thought Tunstall would receive. I wouldn't be surprised were she to win (and she'd be my close-second choice, behind Pink), but I think Aguilera is the safer bet, since she's the only one who also landed a nomination for Best Pop Album. Listening to "Ain't No Other Man," though, you can actually hear her vocal cords turning into scar tissue.
Sal: "Ain't No Other Man" is the obvious choice for those who interpret the vocal performance categories literally (i.e. the loudest vocals), but Pink delivered a scathing, sneer of a performance with "Stupid Girls." She should win solely for "My only concern: Will it fuck up my hair?!"
Eric: I sort of dig the utter transparency of Natasha Bedingfield's nomination for one of the most generically pop songs in years. It harkens back to the days of Natalie Imbruglia and…well, Christina Aguilera's first few nominations. The song appropriately stresses a book with nothing yet written in it. The performance is so utterly invisible I doubt even Pink would bother taking aim. It's pop that takes no chances, makes no gains, and dissolves on contact. I don't know that enough people appreciate how hard it is to hate a single that barely exists.
Sal: Hey, easy there, Eric. I know the fine lady who wrote that song. She had one of the most unrealized pop careers in the early '90s, which I guess is better than being a one-hit wonder. Right, Natasha?
BEST MALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"You're Beautiful," James Blunt
"Save Room," John Legend
"Waiting On The World To Change," John Mayer
"Jenny Wren," Paul McCartney
"Bad Day," Daniel Powter
Sal: This category could go in several directions: James Blunt had Grammy stamped on his ass even before "You're Beautiful" started getting play in the U.S.; John Mayer is a perennial favorite (he's been nominated and won twice in this category); Sir Paul McCartney's been nominated four times here but has never won; and, though it makes our stomachs turn (and hopefully the academy's as well), "Bad Day" is the biggest hit of the bunch.
Eric: A vote for "Bad Day" (i.e. "Love Theme from United 93") is essentially a vote for American Idol. And, Kelly Clarkson aside, Grammy has shown admirable resistance to the juggernaut.
Jonathan: This one's tough to call—there's a solid case for each of the nominees, with the possible exception of Legend, actually winning. The category often favors a veteran artist when there's more than one radio hit in the running, and, unlike some of the recent wins by Stevie Wonder, James Taylor, and Sting, McCartney's "Jenny Wren" would make a fine choice. Despite the fact that Mayer has won this category on his last two nominations, it just seems like Blunt is supposed to win. But that was also our rationale in picking Gwen Stefani last year.
BEST POP PERFORMANCE BY A DUO OR GROUP WITH VOCALS
"My Humps," The Black Eyed Peas
"I Will Follow You Into The Dark," Death Cab For Cutie
"Over My Head (Cable Car)," The Fray
"Is It Any Wonder?," Keane
"Stickwitu," The Pussycat Dolls
Eric: The Pussycat Dolls were nominated for the only song in which they don't sound like wind-up toys, which should work against them. When people want to jack off to pop, they usually prefer the robotic to the clingy.
Jonathan: I call bullshit on the Pussycat Dolls' nomination on the grounds that only one member of the "Duo or Group" was anywhere near the studio when the song was recorded.
Eric: Didn't "My Humps" get a nomination last year?
Sal: "My Humps" gets a nomination every year. Best Novelty Butt Song.
Eric: I love that category. Diana Krall is a shoo-in.
Jonathan: I found Black-Eyed Peas' "Let's Get Retarded" truly offensive until "My Humps" came along to recast it as Will-dot-I-dot-Am and Stacy's personal anthem of self-empowerment. Mercifully, "My Humps" is too divisive to win this. Keane would be the best choice, but it'll go to The Fray. And I'd love to know how NARAS decided that one of their two soundalike singles is "Pop" and one is "Rock."
BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
Back To Basics, Christina Aguilera
Back To Bedlam, James Blunt
The River In Reverse, Elvis Costello & Allen Toussaint
Continuum, John Mayer
FutureSex/LoveSounds, Justin Timberlake
Eric: The Pop Album category has the consistency of Cream of Wheat. Sometimes they go with lumpy, stalwart mandarins of the music industry (i.e. the James Taylor route), and other times they opt for the smoothest, ooziest choice in the line-up.
Jonathan: No artist has won this category more than once, which could hurt Timberlake if the Academy actually looks up their own voting trends online. Breakaway proved that an album can win here over two Album Of The Year nominees, but neither Blunt nor Aguilera have the combo of sales figures and general feelings of goodwill that gave Clarkson the win last year, so it's hard to see either of them pulling an upset. Since the Costello/Toussaint album really isn't all that great, and Mayer has another, more interesting album nominated for Best Rock Album, it looks like Grammy will, quite rightly, give it up to Omeletteville.
BEST DANCE RECORDING
"Suffer Well," Depeche Mode
"Ooh La La," Goldfrapp
"Get Together," Madonna
"I'm With Stupid," Pet Shop Boys
"SexyBack," Justin Timberlake & Timbaland
Sal: Warner Bros. submitted Madonna's "Hung Up" for Female Pop Vocal Performance instead of Best Dance Recording, the same course of action that landed Kylie Minogue's "Come Into My World" a nomination—and a win—here instead of the more popular "Can't Get You Out Of My Head." It wasn't such a long shot considering many thought "Hung Up" was a viable Record Of The Year contender, but "Get Together" is unlikely to beat "SexyBack," the obligatory ass song of the year.
Eric: I agree, "SexyBack" is the assiest song of the bunch. By that, I mean it's the best. Considering Goldfrapp's catchy appropriation of Blondie's "Call Me" got nominated, I'm a little disappointed Rihanna's full-on theft (glamorous, Bonnie and Clyde-style theft) of "Tainted Love" didn't manage to knock off either Depeche Mode or Pet Shop Boys.
Jonathan: The point in Hard Candy when I realized it was complete and utter bullshit is when Kitty Pryde snarls, "I fucking hate Goldfrapp," at an incapacitated Patrick Wilson, completely missing the point of how well Goldfrapp do their denial-of-genuine-emotion thing. It's a waste of energy to hate ice, especially if you need it to numb someone's balls later.
BEST DANCE/ELECTRONIC ALBUM
Supernature, Goldfrapp
Confessions On A Dance Floor, Madonna
A Lively Mind, Oakenfold
Fundamental, Pet Shop Boys
The Garden, Zero 7
Sal: I can't believe Oakenfold got a dance album nod. It's a fucking rock album…and a bad one. I couldn't even bring myself to review it.
Jonathan: Tai sings! Because someone, this one time, told her she sounds like Pink! She does that same soul-killing giggle in the song that she does in all of her soul-killing rom-coms!
Eric: Is Zero 7 dance? I thought they were indie-pop or something.
Sal: The name of category is Electronic/Dance.
Eric: That distinction throws me, especially when paired with Best Dance Recording, which is explicitly "dance."
Sal: A.K.A. Novelty Butt Song. Madonna should be redeemed here. Warner Bros. wisely submitted Confessions in this category instead of the more competitive Pop Vocal Album.
Jonathan: Since the dance categories' short history shows that NARAS has absolutely no idea what the hell they're voting for, the simple fact that Madonna's album has the word "dance" right there in the title should be enough to win. Which, since The Knife and Vitalic weren't on the radar, I'm fine with, though I wouldn't have voted for "Get Together" in the previous category.
Eric: I actually hope Zero 7 wins here. Not necessarily because it's my favorite album of this group (though it is), but because as long as they insist on "legitimizing" this category by not limiting themselves to dance music alone, I want them to select winners that best reflect their distaste for the genre. There's not a four-to-the-floor moment in The Garden, and I think they want it that way.
BEST ROCK SONG
"Chasing Cars," Snow Patrol
"Dani California," Red Hot Chili Peppers
"Lookin' For A Leader," Neil Young
"Someday Baby," Bob Dylan
"When You Were Young," The Killers
Sal: I think Tom Petty should win a Grammy for "Dani California."
Eric: I'm hoping Brian Setzer gets his due for "Someday Baby."
Sal: But you know I'd stunt for The Killers, if only for that one lyric about Jesus talking like a gentleman. Anything but Neil Young's "Lookin' For A Leader," thanks.
Jonathan: I've already stated my take on the Dylan v. Flowers throwdown, but I don't think either will win here—"Chasing Cars" has been all over the radio for the duration of the voting period.
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not, Arctic Monkeys
At War With The Mystics, The Flaming Lips
St. Elsewhere, Gnarls Barkley
Show Your Bones, Yeah Yeah Yeahs
The Eraser, Thom Yorke
Sal: The Arctic Monkeys' album is my favorite of the bunch. Yeah Yeah Yeahs' album disappointed me, not because it was deemed a shot at the mainstream, but because it did so half-assed.
Eric: The Arctic Monkeys look the best. Still, I'm sort of embarrassed to admit that it took a not-particularly-beloved album that devoted over seven minutes of running time to what the band called "The Sound Of Failure" for me to start really digging The Flaming Lips. So, naturally, it's by far the lowest ranking album over at the Jackin' Pop poll. Maybe if TV On The Radio had managed to sneak in here, I could've gone with the critical mass.
Jonathan: In the past few years, I would've gladly replaced the general Album Of The Year line-up with the one NARAS came up with for this category. Not so, this year. Yorke's album grew on me over the course of the year, while YYY's cooled a bit. The Flaming Lips' album isn't as bad as the reviews made it out to be, but it's a definite step down from their previous two outings. And I like both of Franz Ferdinand's albums, which lost in this category, a whole lot better than the Arctic Monkeys' good but wildly overhyped debut. Which leaves Gnarls Barkley. I don't really agree with the genre placement, but it's the best album of the lot, and it's rare for an Album Of The Year nominee to lose here.
BEST FEMALE R&B VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Ring The Alarm," Beyoncé
"Be Without You," Mary J. Blige
"Don't Forget About Us," Mariah Carey
"Day Dreaming," Natalie Cole
"I Am Not My Hair," India.Arie
Eric: I know the video shouldn't have any pull in deciding the winner here, but if Beyoncé had brought anything resembling the histrionics she demonstrated in "Ring The Alarm" to Dreamgirls—aside from the fact that it would drastically alter her character—people would be going "Jennifer who?" Mary J. Blige may write in about 24 point on her laptop, but Beyoncé's the one who delivers in all caps. Thankfully, she's not doing it in a love ballad for a change.
Sal:It's the best vocal performance here, without a doubt. And I'm basing that solely on the bridge. And the chinchilla coats. I'm leaving the disembodied "I Am Not My Hair" jokes to you, Eric.
Eric: India.Arie is not her hair. She's not the average girl from your video. She spends an awful lot of time not being things.
Jonathan: I'm usually in the booster club at The Mary J. Blige School Of Losing One's Shit In Lieu Of Proper Singing, but, yeah, "Ring The Alarm" one-ups her on that on front.
Sal: Who's going to win, Mary's copy of "We Belong Together" or Mariah's?
Jonathan: Mary will still win because she's overdue, but I do wonder if we're underestimating Natalie Cole.
BEST MALE R&B VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Heaven," John Legend
"So Sick," Ne-Yo
"Black Sweat," Prince
"I Call It Love," Lionel Richie
"Got You Home," Luther Vandross
Sal: Singing from the grave never lost anyone a Grammy, and the academy loves them some Luther, but I was pretty impressed with Prince's performance on "Black Sweat." It's the first Prince song I've liked in years and he is, after all, a living legend. Unlike John Legend, who, despite his name and song title, is neither a legend nor dead yet. Oh, whatever, they should just give it to Lionel Richie because I'm sure Nicole will be dead soon and that counts, right? Besides, "I Call It Love" and Ne-Yo's "So Sick" are basically the same song anyway. A win for one is a score for both.
Jonathan: I do hope Prince gets to accept one of Justin Timberlake's awards, since I doubt he's going to win any of his own.
Eric: I hope Prince kicks Justin's ass for his short joke at the Golden Globes...I mean, provided he can reach Justin's ass.
BEST RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION
"Smack That," Akon Featuring Eminem
"Deja vu," Beyoncé Featuring Jay-Z
"Shake That," Eminem Featuring Nate Dogg
"Unpredictable," Jamie Foxx Featuring Ludacris
"My Love," Justin Timberlake Featuring T.I.
Sal: I know there's a "Shake That"/"Smack That"/"Deja Vu" joke in my head somewhere but it's being smothered to death by the perpetual inanity of this category.
Eric: I don't know about you two, but this is my favorite category. I get my conversation-ending epigrams from it every year. If only they had managed to make room for "Jiggle Dat," "Sniff It," "Twerk Out," and "Fuck Me," I'd be set until 2010.
Jonathan: I will never in my life come up with anything better than "Twerk Out."
BEST RAP ALBUM
Lupe Fiasco's Food & Liquor, Lupe Fiasco
Release Therapy, Ludacris
In My Mind, Pharrell
Game Theory, The Roots
King, T.I.
Jonathan: I know it wasn't a good year for popular rap, but Pharrell? Honestly?
Sal: Pharrell's album was practically unlistenable—save for that track featuring Gwen, and only because the fact that she agreed to such a degrading, monotonous cameo was downright mesmerizing.
Jonathan: This one's tough because three big name acts (Eminem, OutKast, and Kanye West) have won the last seven years with albums worthy of the praise. This year, Luda's the biggest name by a pretty substantial margin, but (and this could be my residual disgust for anything even tangentially connected to Crash rearing its head) his album isn't even close to the quality of Game Theory or Lupe Fiasco's Food & Liquor, which probably would've made my year-end Top 10 had I not picked it up just a few days before we published our lists. Lupe Fiasco's nominations were a pleasant surprise, so it's possible that he could win, but T.I.'s King has the best balance of commercial impact and critical support that's required to win this category.
Sal: I love how it was Jonathan, and not Eric, who managed to work a jab at Crash into our Grammy predictions.
Jonathan: I figured Eric had sent his invisibility cloak to the dry-cleaners.
Eric: I'm saving up for this year's Oscar predictions. That said, Ludacris will win this one in a country-fried chicken-n-beer.
BEST COUNTRY SONG
"Every Mile A Memory," Dierks Bentley
"I Don't Feel Like Loving You Today," Gretchen Wilson
"Jesus, Take The Wheel," Carrie Underwood
"Like Red On A Rose," Alan Jackson
"What Hurts The Most," Rascal Flatts
Eric: Country music, I don't feel like loving you today. Someone else take the wheel.
Jonathan: That "Not Ready To Make Nice" was left out here has some pundits setting up camp on the grassy knoll, worried that bloc voting in Nashville will keep the Dixie Chicks from winning in the Country field. This ignores both that the country music industry flat-out doesn't care what the Grammys do since they already have two awards shows to honor the Nashville boys club, and that the Grammys are not a figure skating competition. "I Don't Feel Like Loving You Today" is easily the best-written song of the nominees, but it's hard to tell, thanks to Wilson, whose performance of the ballad is so affected that she might as well be singing in a British accent. Matraca Berg has been one of the best singer-songwriters in Nashville for some two decades now, and a win here would be some long-overdue recognition. Which means, obviously, that she has the longest of the long-shots to win against Song of the Year nominee "Jesus, Take The Wheel," which is one deus ex machina away from being a song about criminal charges for child endangerment and vehicular manslaughter.
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
Taking The Long Way, Dixie Chicks
Like Red On A Rose, Alan Jackson
The Road To Here, Little Big Town
You Don't Know Me: The Songs Of Cindy Walker, Willie Nelson
Your Man, Josh Turner
Jonathan: One super important thing I ignored in making my prediction for this category last year is that, when it comes to the Grammys, you never bet against Alison Krauss. That she produced Jackson's well-reviewed Like Red On A Rose could position that album as the only possible spoiler in this category (she produced Nickel Creek's Grammy-winning This Side, so there's precedent). Thing is, Jackson's album of stylish adult pop has alienated his fanbase almost as much as the Dixie Chicks have theirs. He'd still be a deserving winner—as would Willie Nelson, nominated for one of the few things he's done in the last five years that doesn't actively undermine his status as a genre legend. Turner could upset Vince Gill in the Male Vocal Performance category, but there's not much to his album beyond its two hit singles. Little Big Town's singles are pretty great, but the album nomination is a stretch. Not that any of this matters. The Dixie Chicks won this award months before their album was even released.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
"Be Without You," Mary J. Blige
"You're Beautiful," James Blunt
"Not Ready To Make Nice," Dixie Chicks
"Crazy," Gnarls Barkley"Put Your Records On," Corinne Bailey Rae
Sal Cinquemani: Is there a general consensus in the industry that Mary J. Blige is owed something?
Jonathan Keefe: As though performing on the American Idol finale with that kid People profiled for getting dental veneers (Elliott, lest any of the "Yaminions" send me hate-mail) isn't its own reward.
Eric Henderson: It plays out like so many other music stories: she starts getting props just for hanging around long enough for her music to be vapid and middlebrow.
Sal: "Crazy" is getting lots of AC attention, which means it's reached critical mass-acceptance in the heartland. It's crossed over in a big way.
Eric: Yeah, with the Closet Freak himself singing falsetto and Danger Mouse producing, "Crazy" is simultaneously as cutting edge and as Downy soft as you want it to be. Demographically speaking, it's practically schizo in its appeal. Dixie Chicks are the only potential spoilers, if momentum snowballs their way.
Jonathan: "Crazy" does what "Hey Ya!," "Crazy In Love," and "Work It" before it couldn't, becoming the first crossover pop single that owes a substantial debt to hip-hop to win Record of the Year. Had anything Timbaland produced been nominated, there would've been another one of the vote-splits that have allowed "Clocks," "Boulevard Of Broken Dreams," and that comatose Ray Charles/Norah Jones duet to win the last three years. This time, it's the limp AC tracks—which fully covers both Blige and Dixie Chicks, conveniently enough—that split the votes, to the benefit of what happens to be the best "record" of the lot.
Eric: Did they nominate this instantly forgettable Corinne Bailey Rae tune because it validates the category's title, when it would make more sense today to switch it to "Single of the Year" or "Track of the Year"?
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Taking The Long Way, Dixie ChicksSt. Elsewhere, Gnarls Barkley
Continuum, John Mayer
Stadium Arcadium, Red Hot Chili Peppers
FutureSex/LoveSounds, Justin Timberlake
Sal: Justin's album is the biggest seller here but a sexybacklash—and the fact that the academy hasn't awarded a pop album in this category in a decade—could spoil things for him. He himself said the Chili Peppers will win but I don't see that happening. Chicks with Dix, on the other hand, showed a different (that is, non-narcotic) kind of perseverance and survival, and while they haven't been around as long as Anthony Kiedis's West Coast band, Texas might be ripe for a comeback after everything Bush has done for its image. Now that America has come to its senses perhaps they should re-title this category We're Sorry, You Were Right All Along And Now Here's A Grammy.
Eric: Mary J. Blige is still scowling, somewhere. The only one I can see snatching it away from the Chicks is John Mayer, who seems to win almost every time he gets nominated. "Waiting On The World To Change" might pick up a few anti-Bush votes for those who prefer passive-aggressive political statements.
Jonathan: The easy answer is that the two urban-pop albums by Robin Gibb and Gnarls Barkley (both of which would be deserving winners, incidentally) cancel each other out, as do the dull VH1 rock albums by Red Hot Chili Peppers and Mayer, thereby keeping any one album from acting as a spoiler to The Dixie Chicks' frontrunner status. The more accurate answer is that a vote for The Dixie Chicks is a vote for NARAS themselves, since The Dixie Chicks haven't shut up (and sung) in the last year about wanting anything other than to be validated by openly left-leaning music industry veterans who only like country music when it doesn't sound a damn thing like country music at all because they're better people than those who do like country music. Begging this exact demographic for their approval didn't work for Kanye West last year, but his album wasn't as airquotes important as Taking the Long Way and the election results hadn't yet confirmed that it's safe to give major awards to liberals again.
SONG OF THE YEAR
"Be Without You," Mary J. Blige
"Jesus, Take The Wheel," Carrie Underwood
"Not Ready To Make Nice," Dixie Chicks
"Put Your Records On," Corinne Bailey Rae
"You're Beautiful," James BluntSal: You've got red-state country (Carrie Underwood's "Jesus, Take The Wheel") vs. blue-state country (Dixie Chicks' "Not Ready To Make Nice"). It's like the '04 election all over again.
Eric: Unless Dixie Chicks win, in which case it's the '06 election all over again.
Sal: People seem to love Mary's single, but a win for that song would be a real slap in the face to Mariah and "We Belong Together," without which "Be Without You" wouldn't be.
Jonathan: True, but does NARAS really feel so bad about slapping Mariah around? But, like Mariah last year, I think Blige will be shut out of the General Field awards.
Eric: The only one I can rule out is Carrie Underwood's, since she had no hand in writing the song. Otherwise, "You're Beautiful" seems like it has the "tomorrow's lounge lizard standards" vibe that seems to win this category so often.
Jonathan: It's impossible to imagine any jazz singers trying to croon "Not Ready to Make Nice" 10 years from now. Add that to the fact that this category hasn't gone to a "country" song since 1982 and has gone to a woman just twice in the last 10 years (Shawn Colvin in 1997 and Alicia Keys in 2001, as Norah Jones didn't write "Don't Know Why"), and Blunt has to be considered the slight favorite.
BEST NEW ARTIST
James Blunt
Chris Brown
Imogen Heap
Corinne Bailey Rae
Carrie UnderwoodSal: I'm a little baffled by Imogen Heap's inclusion here. She's been around since the late '90s, released an album with her band Frou Frou in 2002, and her latest solo record came out during last year's Grammy eligibility period. Still, she probably deserves to win in this lot.
Eric: Not only that, but Carrie Underwood won American Idol the season before last. But it's all part and parcel of the category that, in awards show terms, has about as much relevance as winning Miss Golden Globe.
Jonathan: Underwood is the most likely of the five to maintain a lengthy career, but that doesn't mean she's given any real clues to this point as to the type of "artist" she is beyond "one who can sell 5 million albums that she had a minimal amount of creative input in crafting." Even though part of me thinks that they might as well just give the Grammy to Simon Cowell for recognizing exactly how marketable Underwood is, I still think she'll take this one. Imogen Heap can take consolation in being able to do this.
Sal: Let's see how a Grammy nomination and inevitable mainstream attention will ruin that kind of talent.
BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Ain't No Other Man," Christina Aguilera"Unwritten," Natasha Bedingfield
"You Can Close Your Eyes," Sheryl Crow
"Stupid Girls," Pink
"Black Horse And The Cherry Tree," KT Tunstall
Eric: You can close your eyes and still know that Sheryl Crow will be nominated in this category from now until she decides to have a Nelly Furtado makeover.
Jonathan: She's definitely replaced Bonnie Raitt as the perennial fifth nominee here, getting in for something that was heard by the exact number of people needed to get her on the shortlist and leaving the rest of us to wonder how that manages to be a bigger number than the total of people who voted for Madonna.
Sal: For the same reason Cee-Lo and Dangermouse will go home with enough Grammy gold for both their mantles, dark horse KT Tunstall could secure a surprise win. Tunstall's music has been a fixture on AC radio (and half a dozen TV shows) since the ailing Virgin Records started pushing the Scottish singer-songwriter down our throats a year ago. She's nothing special and she's got no other nominations (not even a Best New Artist nod, despite being one of the nominee announcers), but her only real competition, Christina Aguilera, hasn't exactly blown up the charts.
Jonathan: I'd go with "Black Horse & The Cherry Tree" here if not for the fact that Corinne Bailey Rae took all three of the General Field nominations that I thought Tunstall would receive. I wouldn't be surprised were she to win (and she'd be my close-second choice, behind Pink), but I think Aguilera is the safer bet, since she's the only one who also landed a nomination for Best Pop Album. Listening to "Ain't No Other Man," though, you can actually hear her vocal cords turning into scar tissue.
Sal: "Ain't No Other Man" is the obvious choice for those who interpret the vocal performance categories literally (i.e. the loudest vocals), but Pink delivered a scathing, sneer of a performance with "Stupid Girls." She should win solely for "My only concern: Will it fuck up my hair?!"
Eric: I sort of dig the utter transparency of Natasha Bedingfield's nomination for one of the most generically pop songs in years. It harkens back to the days of Natalie Imbruglia and…well, Christina Aguilera's first few nominations. The song appropriately stresses a book with nothing yet written in it. The performance is so utterly invisible I doubt even Pink would bother taking aim. It's pop that takes no chances, makes no gains, and dissolves on contact. I don't know that enough people appreciate how hard it is to hate a single that barely exists.
Sal: Hey, easy there, Eric. I know the fine lady who wrote that song. She had one of the most unrealized pop careers in the early '90s, which I guess is better than being a one-hit wonder. Right, Natasha?
BEST MALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"You're Beautiful," James Blunt"Save Room," John Legend
"Waiting On The World To Change," John Mayer
"Jenny Wren," Paul McCartney
"Bad Day," Daniel Powter
Sal: This category could go in several directions: James Blunt had Grammy stamped on his ass even before "You're Beautiful" started getting play in the U.S.; John Mayer is a perennial favorite (he's been nominated and won twice in this category); Sir Paul McCartney's been nominated four times here but has never won; and, though it makes our stomachs turn (and hopefully the academy's as well), "Bad Day" is the biggest hit of the bunch.
Eric: A vote for "Bad Day" (i.e. "Love Theme from United 93") is essentially a vote for American Idol. And, Kelly Clarkson aside, Grammy has shown admirable resistance to the juggernaut.
Jonathan: This one's tough to call—there's a solid case for each of the nominees, with the possible exception of Legend, actually winning. The category often favors a veteran artist when there's more than one radio hit in the running, and, unlike some of the recent wins by Stevie Wonder, James Taylor, and Sting, McCartney's "Jenny Wren" would make a fine choice. Despite the fact that Mayer has won this category on his last two nominations, it just seems like Blunt is supposed to win. But that was also our rationale in picking Gwen Stefani last year.
BEST POP PERFORMANCE BY A DUO OR GROUP WITH VOCALS
"My Humps," The Black Eyed Peas
"I Will Follow You Into The Dark," Death Cab For Cutie
"Over My Head (Cable Car)," The Fray"Is It Any Wonder?," Keane
"Stickwitu," The Pussycat Dolls
Eric: The Pussycat Dolls were nominated for the only song in which they don't sound like wind-up toys, which should work against them. When people want to jack off to pop, they usually prefer the robotic to the clingy.
Jonathan: I call bullshit on the Pussycat Dolls' nomination on the grounds that only one member of the "Duo or Group" was anywhere near the studio when the song was recorded.
Eric: Didn't "My Humps" get a nomination last year?
Sal: "My Humps" gets a nomination every year. Best Novelty Butt Song.
Eric: I love that category. Diana Krall is a shoo-in.
Jonathan: I found Black-Eyed Peas' "Let's Get Retarded" truly offensive until "My Humps" came along to recast it as Will-dot-I-dot-Am and Stacy's personal anthem of self-empowerment. Mercifully, "My Humps" is too divisive to win this. Keane would be the best choice, but it'll go to The Fray. And I'd love to know how NARAS decided that one of their two soundalike singles is "Pop" and one is "Rock."
BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
Back To Basics, Christina Aguilera
Back To Bedlam, James Blunt
The River In Reverse, Elvis Costello & Allen Toussaint
Continuum, John Mayer
FutureSex/LoveSounds, Justin TimberlakeEric: The Pop Album category has the consistency of Cream of Wheat. Sometimes they go with lumpy, stalwart mandarins of the music industry (i.e. the James Taylor route), and other times they opt for the smoothest, ooziest choice in the line-up.
Jonathan: No artist has won this category more than once, which could hurt Timberlake if the Academy actually looks up their own voting trends online. Breakaway proved that an album can win here over two Album Of The Year nominees, but neither Blunt nor Aguilera have the combo of sales figures and general feelings of goodwill that gave Clarkson the win last year, so it's hard to see either of them pulling an upset. Since the Costello/Toussaint album really isn't all that great, and Mayer has another, more interesting album nominated for Best Rock Album, it looks like Grammy will, quite rightly, give it up to Omeletteville.
BEST DANCE RECORDING
"Suffer Well," Depeche Mode
"Ooh La La," Goldfrapp
"Get Together," Madonna
"I'm With Stupid," Pet Shop Boys
"SexyBack," Justin Timberlake & TimbalandSal: Warner Bros. submitted Madonna's "Hung Up" for Female Pop Vocal Performance instead of Best Dance Recording, the same course of action that landed Kylie Minogue's "Come Into My World" a nomination—and a win—here instead of the more popular "Can't Get You Out Of My Head." It wasn't such a long shot considering many thought "Hung Up" was a viable Record Of The Year contender, but "Get Together" is unlikely to beat "SexyBack," the obligatory ass song of the year.
Eric: I agree, "SexyBack" is the assiest song of the bunch. By that, I mean it's the best. Considering Goldfrapp's catchy appropriation of Blondie's "Call Me" got nominated, I'm a little disappointed Rihanna's full-on theft (glamorous, Bonnie and Clyde-style theft) of "Tainted Love" didn't manage to knock off either Depeche Mode or Pet Shop Boys.
Jonathan: The point in Hard Candy when I realized it was complete and utter bullshit is when Kitty Pryde snarls, "I fucking hate Goldfrapp," at an incapacitated Patrick Wilson, completely missing the point of how well Goldfrapp do their denial-of-genuine-emotion thing. It's a waste of energy to hate ice, especially if you need it to numb someone's balls later.
BEST DANCE/ELECTRONIC ALBUM
Supernature, Goldfrapp
Confessions On A Dance Floor, MadonnaA Lively Mind, Oakenfold
Fundamental, Pet Shop Boys
The Garden, Zero 7
Sal: I can't believe Oakenfold got a dance album nod. It's a fucking rock album…and a bad one. I couldn't even bring myself to review it.
Jonathan: Tai sings! Because someone, this one time, told her she sounds like Pink! She does that same soul-killing giggle in the song that she does in all of her soul-killing rom-coms!
Eric: Is Zero 7 dance? I thought they were indie-pop or something.
Sal: The name of category is Electronic/Dance.
Eric: That distinction throws me, especially when paired with Best Dance Recording, which is explicitly "dance."
Sal: A.K.A. Novelty Butt Song. Madonna should be redeemed here. Warner Bros. wisely submitted Confessions in this category instead of the more competitive Pop Vocal Album.
Jonathan: Since the dance categories' short history shows that NARAS has absolutely no idea what the hell they're voting for, the simple fact that Madonna's album has the word "dance" right there in the title should be enough to win. Which, since The Knife and Vitalic weren't on the radar, I'm fine with, though I wouldn't have voted for "Get Together" in the previous category.
Eric: I actually hope Zero 7 wins here. Not necessarily because it's my favorite album of this group (though it is), but because as long as they insist on "legitimizing" this category by not limiting themselves to dance music alone, I want them to select winners that best reflect their distaste for the genre. There's not a four-to-the-floor moment in The Garden, and I think they want it that way.
BEST ROCK SONG
"Chasing Cars," Snow Patrol"Dani California," Red Hot Chili Peppers
"Lookin' For A Leader," Neil Young
"Someday Baby," Bob Dylan
"When You Were Young," The Killers
Sal: I think Tom Petty should win a Grammy for "Dani California."
Eric: I'm hoping Brian Setzer gets his due for "Someday Baby."
Sal: But you know I'd stunt for The Killers, if only for that one lyric about Jesus talking like a gentleman. Anything but Neil Young's "Lookin' For A Leader," thanks.
Jonathan: I've already stated my take on the Dylan v. Flowers throwdown, but I don't think either will win here—"Chasing Cars" has been all over the radio for the duration of the voting period.
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not, Arctic Monkeys
At War With The Mystics, The Flaming Lips
St. Elsewhere, Gnarls BarkleyShow Your Bones, Yeah Yeah Yeahs
The Eraser, Thom Yorke
Sal: The Arctic Monkeys' album is my favorite of the bunch. Yeah Yeah Yeahs' album disappointed me, not because it was deemed a shot at the mainstream, but because it did so half-assed.
Eric: The Arctic Monkeys look the best. Still, I'm sort of embarrassed to admit that it took a not-particularly-beloved album that devoted over seven minutes of running time to what the band called "The Sound Of Failure" for me to start really digging The Flaming Lips. So, naturally, it's by far the lowest ranking album over at the Jackin' Pop poll. Maybe if TV On The Radio had managed to sneak in here, I could've gone with the critical mass.
Jonathan: In the past few years, I would've gladly replaced the general Album Of The Year line-up with the one NARAS came up with for this category. Not so, this year. Yorke's album grew on me over the course of the year, while YYY's cooled a bit. The Flaming Lips' album isn't as bad as the reviews made it out to be, but it's a definite step down from their previous two outings. And I like both of Franz Ferdinand's albums, which lost in this category, a whole lot better than the Arctic Monkeys' good but wildly overhyped debut. Which leaves Gnarls Barkley. I don't really agree with the genre placement, but it's the best album of the lot, and it's rare for an Album Of The Year nominee to lose here.
BEST FEMALE R&B VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Ring The Alarm," Beyoncé
"Be Without You," Mary J. Blige"Don't Forget About Us," Mariah Carey
"Day Dreaming," Natalie Cole
"I Am Not My Hair," India.Arie
Eric: I know the video shouldn't have any pull in deciding the winner here, but if Beyoncé had brought anything resembling the histrionics she demonstrated in "Ring The Alarm" to Dreamgirls—aside from the fact that it would drastically alter her character—people would be going "Jennifer who?" Mary J. Blige may write in about 24 point on her laptop, but Beyoncé's the one who delivers in all caps. Thankfully, she's not doing it in a love ballad for a change.
Sal:It's the best vocal performance here, without a doubt. And I'm basing that solely on the bridge. And the chinchilla coats. I'm leaving the disembodied "I Am Not My Hair" jokes to you, Eric.
Eric: India.Arie is not her hair. She's not the average girl from your video. She spends an awful lot of time not being things.
Jonathan: I'm usually in the booster club at The Mary J. Blige School Of Losing One's Shit In Lieu Of Proper Singing, but, yeah, "Ring The Alarm" one-ups her on that on front.
Sal: Who's going to win, Mary's copy of "We Belong Together" or Mariah's?
Jonathan: Mary will still win because she's overdue, but I do wonder if we're underestimating Natalie Cole.
BEST MALE R&B VOCAL PERFORMANCE
"Heaven," John Legend
"So Sick," Ne-Yo
"Black Sweat," Prince
"I Call It Love," Lionel Richie
"Got You Home," Luther VandrossSal: Singing from the grave never lost anyone a Grammy, and the academy loves them some Luther, but I was pretty impressed with Prince's performance on "Black Sweat." It's the first Prince song I've liked in years and he is, after all, a living legend. Unlike John Legend, who, despite his name and song title, is neither a legend nor dead yet. Oh, whatever, they should just give it to Lionel Richie because I'm sure Nicole will be dead soon and that counts, right? Besides, "I Call It Love" and Ne-Yo's "So Sick" are basically the same song anyway. A win for one is a score for both.
Jonathan: I do hope Prince gets to accept one of Justin Timberlake's awards, since I doubt he's going to win any of his own.
Eric: I hope Prince kicks Justin's ass for his short joke at the Golden Globes...I mean, provided he can reach Justin's ass.
BEST RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION
"Smack That," Akon Featuring Eminem
"Deja vu," Beyoncé Featuring Jay-Z
"Shake That," Eminem Featuring Nate Dogg
"Unpredictable," Jamie Foxx Featuring Ludacris
"My Love," Justin Timberlake Featuring T.I. Sal: I know there's a "Shake That"/"Smack That"/"Deja Vu" joke in my head somewhere but it's being smothered to death by the perpetual inanity of this category.
Eric: I don't know about you two, but this is my favorite category. I get my conversation-ending epigrams from it every year. If only they had managed to make room for "Jiggle Dat," "Sniff It," "Twerk Out," and "Fuck Me," I'd be set until 2010.
Jonathan: I will never in my life come up with anything better than "Twerk Out."
BEST RAP ALBUM
Lupe Fiasco's Food & Liquor, Lupe Fiasco
Release Therapy, Ludacris In My Mind, Pharrell
Game Theory, The Roots
King, T.I.
Jonathan: I know it wasn't a good year for popular rap, but Pharrell? Honestly?
Sal: Pharrell's album was practically unlistenable—save for that track featuring Gwen, and only because the fact that she agreed to such a degrading, monotonous cameo was downright mesmerizing.
Jonathan: This one's tough because three big name acts (Eminem, OutKast, and Kanye West) have won the last seven years with albums worthy of the praise. This year, Luda's the biggest name by a pretty substantial margin, but (and this could be my residual disgust for anything even tangentially connected to Crash rearing its head) his album isn't even close to the quality of Game Theory or Lupe Fiasco's Food & Liquor, which probably would've made my year-end Top 10 had I not picked it up just a few days before we published our lists. Lupe Fiasco's nominations were a pleasant surprise, so it's possible that he could win, but T.I.'s King has the best balance of commercial impact and critical support that's required to win this category.
Sal: I love how it was Jonathan, and not Eric, who managed to work a jab at Crash into our Grammy predictions.
Jonathan: I figured Eric had sent his invisibility cloak to the dry-cleaners.
Eric: I'm saving up for this year's Oscar predictions. That said, Ludacris will win this one in a country-fried chicken-n-beer.
BEST COUNTRY SONG
"Every Mile A Memory," Dierks Bentley
"I Don't Feel Like Loving You Today," Gretchen Wilson
"Jesus, Take The Wheel," Carrie Underwood"Like Red On A Rose," Alan Jackson
"What Hurts The Most," Rascal Flatts
Eric: Country music, I don't feel like loving you today. Someone else take the wheel.
Jonathan: That "Not Ready To Make Nice" was left out here has some pundits setting up camp on the grassy knoll, worried that bloc voting in Nashville will keep the Dixie Chicks from winning in the Country field. This ignores both that the country music industry flat-out doesn't care what the Grammys do since they already have two awards shows to honor the Nashville boys club, and that the Grammys are not a figure skating competition. "I Don't Feel Like Loving You Today" is easily the best-written song of the nominees, but it's hard to tell, thanks to Wilson, whose performance of the ballad is so affected that she might as well be singing in a British accent. Matraca Berg has been one of the best singer-songwriters in Nashville for some two decades now, and a win here would be some long-overdue recognition. Which means, obviously, that she has the longest of the long-shots to win against Song of the Year nominee "Jesus, Take The Wheel," which is one deus ex machina away from being a song about criminal charges for child endangerment and vehicular manslaughter.
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
Taking The Long Way, Dixie ChicksLike Red On A Rose, Alan Jackson
The Road To Here, Little Big Town
You Don't Know Me: The Songs Of Cindy Walker, Willie Nelson
Your Man, Josh Turner
Jonathan: One super important thing I ignored in making my prediction for this category last year is that, when it comes to the Grammys, you never bet against Alison Krauss. That she produced Jackson's well-reviewed Like Red On A Rose could position that album as the only possible spoiler in this category (she produced Nickel Creek's Grammy-winning This Side, so there's precedent). Thing is, Jackson's album of stylish adult pop has alienated his fanbase almost as much as the Dixie Chicks have theirs. He'd still be a deserving winner—as would Willie Nelson, nominated for one of the few things he's done in the last five years that doesn't actively undermine his status as a genre legend. Turner could upset Vince Gill in the Male Vocal Performance category, but there's not much to his album beyond its two hit singles. Little Big Town's singles are pretty great, but the album nomination is a stretch. Not that any of this matters. The Dixie Chicks won this award months before their album was even released.
6 Things I Learned From Grammy
By: Sal Cinquemani On: 02/15/2005 01:30:35 In: Grammys Comments: 218
1. Grammy producers still believe that more musical performances = higher ratings. This may be true, but some of us actually enjoy the sport of watching who will win. By the 30-minute mark, only one trophy had been given away but there were already a slew of lifetime achievement acknowledgements (see #6) and live performances, including a mess of an opening act that included Maroon 5, Los Lonely Boys, Gwen Stefani and Eve, Franz Ferdinand, and no less than three performances of the Black Eyed Peas' sell-out hit "Let's Get It Started." God, I hate that song. I half expected the group to start jumping up and down all over the stage during U2's performance later in the night.
2. Marc Anthony must really love Jennifer Lopez. The newlyweds performed for the first time together, staging what appeared to be a musical interpretation of a scene from Abrázame Muy Fuerte as directed by Douglas Sirk. Not surprisingly, Lopez was off-key for most of the song, but it wasn't the worst performance of the night. That award goes to…
3. Kanye West, who is still full of himself. "That was definitely…something," Ludacris said moments after West, sporting giant angel wings, was hoisted into the air by a black choir during his performance of "Jesus Walks," which won Best Rap Song. After reenacting his infamous car accident behind a giant white sheet and staging his own funeral accompanied by Mavis Staples (who desperately needed a throat lozenge), West—now dressed in all white—rose from the dead to save hip-hop from its own hip-hopracy. Talk about a Messianic complex.
4. Melissa Etheridge is due for a comeback. Kanye West may have survived a car accident and gone on to win three Grammys, but the artist who has really triumphed over adversity is Melissa Etheridge, who was recently diagnosed with breast cancer. She gave one bold (and bald) performance of "Piece Of My Heart" during a tribute to Janis Joplin, proving that you don't have to be an asshole to appreciate life. I promise to review your next album, Melissa.
5. The word "fuck" is more offensive than the word "faggot." During Green Day's electrifying performance of "American Idiot," the benign use of the F-word ("subliminal mind-fuck") was apparently deemed too offensive for 9:30pm, while that other F-word was left uncensored for all the masses to hear. Sure, "Maybe I'm the faggot, America" isn't derogatory, but I doubt we'll start hearing the word "nigga" on primetime network television anytime soon.
6. It's true: They'll love you when you're dead. This year's Grammy telecast was weighed down by a series of mini-tributes to lifetime achievement recipients. Not only did these acknowledgements kill whatever momentum the show might have had, but they likely sent viewers flipping to Desperate Housewives. Grammy producers should do us a favor and lump all of the special tributes together like a death montage. And speaking of death: If one more person wins an award (or critical notice) for being dead, I'm going to record an album and then kill myself. 2004 was Ray Charles's year, and his biopic is likely to pick up at least one Academy Award at the end of the month, but, by anyone's count, Genius Loves Company was not the best album in the top category this year. But I guess what's really important is that the great pop legend Britney Spears finally won a Grammy after six long years in the business and she was still alive to accept it—only they didn't have time to broadcast that award because the Black Eyed Peas were too busy getting retarded, err, it started on stage.
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