2009 Oscar Race: Composite Winner Predictions

Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Directing: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Sean Penn for Milk
Actress: Kate Winslet for The Reader
Actor in a Supporting Role: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Actress in a Supporting Role: Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay: Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Foreign Language Film: The Class
Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Animated Feature Film: WALL-E
Documentary Short: Smile Pinki
Animated Short: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Live Action Short: Toyland
Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Song: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Mixing: Slumdog Millionaire
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Picture

Because it pushes that button. Because it makes them feel like sitting on trains. Because you know Sharon Stone texted Dev Patel: U R A Q T. Because it got them wondering why everyone got hustle on their mind. Because they like the sound of them knocking on the doors of their hummers. Because Bucky done gone. Because they shake their ass, making moves on a mover. Because Indian chicks, they get men laid. Because of gold and diamond gems and jades. Because of painted nails, sunsets on horizons. Because the price of living in a shanty town just seems very high. Because they're sick of all the shit that's keepin' them down. Because it got them to whistle, whistle, blow, blow.

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Not The Reader or Frost/Nixon

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Sound Mixing

As the presence of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (which was snubbed in the other sound category) would attest, Sound Mixing is the category that far more obviously favors best picture players. It's Sound Editing that usually tips toward the Masters and Commanders, the Lords of the Rings, the Kings Kongs as though the entire category were one big tie-in with Visual Effects and Makeup. So if Slumdog Millionaire is the frontrunner (or, given the remote possibility that we're wrong, a very, very strong contender) in Sound Editing, there's absolutely no reason to think that it won't take this in a walk. If that's not enough to convince you, remember that previous winners in this category include Chicago, Ray, and Dreamgirls. Oscar loves a showtune, and Slumdog's clodhopping but exuberant train station throwdown is the closest thing this category has to a showstopper.

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: WALL-E

Black and White and Misread All Over

Despite what Slant's own Oscar prognosticators have told you, the profoundly relevant The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306, a recounting of the final hours of Martin Luther King Jr.'s life, seems—at least on the surface—like a no-brainer to win the Academy Award for Best Documentary Short. In the film, titular witness Rev. Samuel "Billy" Kyles ardently tells a group of churchgoers that even though the dreamer was killed, the dream continues to live on. That dream coursed through the veins of every voter who pulled a lever or pressed a button for Barack Obama last November. Many heralded the impact his election might have on race relations in this country, while others cynically dismissed all the talk about a post-racial age of hope and change.

Comedians, meanwhile, lamented the replacement of one of the easiest targets in modern history with a man of considerable intelligence, exceptional oratory skills, and, perhaps trickiest of all, a mixed-race background. For eight years George W. Bush was likened to a chimp—the implication being, of course, that he's stupid. (It's the type of lampoon, by the way, that insults the intelligence of our fellow primates while trivializing just how dangerous a "stupid" man like Bush can be.) It's another thing altogether, however, to liken a black man to a chimp, as many believe New York Post satirist Sean Delonas did when he published a cartoon on Wednesday of two police officers shooting a chimpanzee—evoking the killing of a former actor-chimp in Connecticut earlier in the week—accompanied by the caption, "They'll have to find someone else to write the next stimulus bill."

While it was clear to me that Delonas was likening the Democratic majority in Congress to a bunch of chimps, the marriage of the image of a dead chimpanzee to a bill Obama has so fervently championed is, to quote Al Sharpton, troubling. That the 'toon has caused a controversy isn't surprising or unwarranted, but that it's been hastily labeled "racist," completely ignoring the possibility that it might not be, is just as troubling. Such knee-jerk accusations prevent real discourse about the issue and perpetuate the general fear articulated by Attorney General Eric Holder, who, in an unrelated speech to the Justice Department that same day, called the U.S. "a nation of cowards" when it comes to talking about race: "Certain subjects are off-limits and [to] explore them risks, at best, embarrassment and, at worst, the questioning of one's character."

Delonas has a well-deserved reputation for being a homophobe and a chauvinist (most recently, he perpetuated the sexist myth of the ideal female figure with a grotesque portrayal of newly curvaceous Jessica Simpson), but in this case it seems like his vitriol had more to do with partisan politics than race or sex. Republicans have wasted no time launching attacks against the new administration, but if there's one thing they hate more than Obama, it's the Democrats in Congress. Presidents do not write bills, legislators do, and if the cartoon is indeed racist, then it's also fundamentally inaccurate. In an "apology" posted on its website last night, the Post concurs: "Wednesday's Page Six cartoon…was meant to mock an ineptly written federal stimulus bill. Period. But it has been taken as something else—as a depiction of President Obama, as a thinly veiled expression of racism. This most certainly was not its intent; to those who were offended by the image, we apologize."

The statement is not so much an apology as it is an admission that the paper should have known better than to print the cartoon in the first place—not because it was racist, but because, given that we have a black president, it could have been interpreted as such. (Echoes of last year's New Yorker cover, in which Obama and his wife were depicted as Islamic fundamentalists, and an Annie Leibowitz-snapped Vogue photograph that portrayed LeBron James as an angry ape and Gisele Bündchen as a lady liberty in distress—both images with poorly executed messages.) The fact that Delonas's chimp cartoon was published points to the continued, though not surprising, lack of judgment on the part of the Post's Editor-in-Chief Col Allan, who allegedly hasn't seen eye-to-eye in recent months with publisher and newly converted Obama fan Rupert Murdoch. Some things, it seems, aren't plainly black and white.

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Costume Design

Lessons learned from the winners in this category in the last decade: gothic is a no-no (just ask Colleen Atwood, who's only won for Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha); the frilliest attires almost always rule, regardless of whether the film that contains them is an abomination (Elizabeth: The Golden Age); and in the rare cases where the Pre-Frilly and Post-Frilly eras reign supreme, the films must be Best Picture honorees (Gladiator, The Aviator) and boast costumes that are at least as opulent as the Taj Mahal and Sharon Stone's affections for Dev Patel. Weird that Slumdog Millionaire didn't manage a nomination here, but that only makes this one of the easiest calls of the evening. Anyone who tells you otherwise doesn't know Oscar or their Prada from their Pucci.

Will Win: The Duchess

Should Win: The Duchess

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Sound Editing

When trying to figure out what will win the sound awards this year, it's probably best to ignore or at least downplay the two p's—precedent and precursors—and instead try to imagine what, exactly, Oscar voters likely remember they heard when they watched each film, especially when it comes to this category and its vestigial connection to what the Academy used to call "sound effects." To wit:

Iron Man: "Rattle rattle, thunder clatter, boom boom boom."
WALL-E: "Beep borp boop, beepity boppity boop, brap tap tooie. Put on your Sunday clothes there's lots of world out there. Eeee-va! Waaaa-lee! Eeee-va! Waaaa-lee!"
Wanted: "Sorry, let me move into the other room for a minute, dear. No, I didn't drop anything. The kids are watching my screener of Wanted in the other room."
The Dark Knight: "Operator surveillance, please give me Jesus (or a reasonably comparable martyr figure) on the line. And let him listen to all my phone conversations just like Bush did."
Slumdog Millionaire: "This is what it sounds like when doves collectively spunk you in the face with their hot-pink jizz."

In plain English, you could spend a lot of time agonizing over what seems a pretty even playing field, but this is one of those years where the din of everything else stands to be drowned out completely by the unstoppable white noise of a juggernaut.

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: WALL-E

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Cinematography

Writing about what Eric calls the "most boringest" Oscar categories has become more boringer given the inevitability of a Slumdog Millionaire sweep on Sunday. So, why bring up the irony of Tom Stern finally snagging a nomination the same year the academy decided to keep Clint Eastwood out of the Best Picture race? Why consider the horrifying possibility of Roger Deakins winning an Oscar for a calculated awards-baiter such as The Reader and not for a Coen brothers flick? Why ponder if David Fincher's longtime lightning technician Claudio Miranda had to also tame his artistic vision to score an invite to the Oscars? Why contemplate how many more Chistopher Nolan films Wally Pfister will have to be nominated for before scoring a win here? Nope, we won't chew on any of those questions because, well, because you can't stop what's coming. Right?

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Editing

The traditionalists view this as the "Best Picture-elect" category, and with four of the five contenders in that category in play here, it certainly looks like a done deal for what nearly every guild has now christened the only 2008 movie worth honoring. Slumdog Millionaire's suspense is pitched at about the same level as one of Regis Philbin's Meredith Vieira's pregnant pauses—which is to say it's a comfortable tease, but probably only works on those who are in the movie's hot seat. Fortunately, everyone who votes on movie awards this year seems to be pretty well strapped into that seat, and adding insurance are Slumdog's breathless, M.I.A.-infused montages and the fact that it sends audiences out with a production number. The other Best Picture nominees haven't got a prayer, though Benjamin Button's methodical, unshowy pacing is as responsible for the movie's alien, out-of-time effect as anything, and also allows the VFX team's work to weave itself into the tapestry without too much fanfare. (Too bad it will probably lose the vote of anyone who had to get up and change their colostomy bag during the film's 47-hour running time.) Of the two 1970s candidates, Milk's editing is defter by far, and should at least win a few points for the times when it chooses not to cut away (like when Sylvester wishes Harvey Milk a very gay birthday). Frost/Nixon only brings game when it parallels the central interviews with the spectacle of their respective handlers spiking footballs or recoiling in horror, but it's no All the President's Men. (And how do you let "I Feel Love" just sit there on the soundtrack without so much as a single syncopated cut?) If anything's going to beat Slumdog, it's The Dark Knight, because critically-acclaimed actioneers have proven stealth candidates in recent years here. But a lot of Knight's action sequences are spatially confusing, even by Paul Greengrass's standards.

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Milk

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Documentary Short

One more sign of Slumdog Millionaire's appeal is the presence of two films in this category revolving around maladies affecting the lives of impoverished children in India. The stronger of the two films is Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant's elegantly shot The Final Inch, which focuses on a group of foot soldiers devoted to eradicating polio from the face of the earth. In India, a Good Samaritan reveals how Muslims are more likely to receive the vaccine she brings to impoverished regions of the country if she's wearing a bhurka, while in America a man cycles across Texas to raise polio awareness and a 70-year-old North Carolina woman wishes she could leave her iron long to do the same: As such, this is less an exposé of the disease's effects on the private lives of its victims than it is an inquiry into personal and global responsibility in preventing the spread of polio. Voting for the film will make academy members feel as if they're paying its message forward, but so will Smile Pinki. Thousands of children are born with cleft lips every year in India to largely poor and superstitious parents and Megan Mylan's film documents the concerted efforts of a group of social workers and medical professionals to give these children pro bono cosmetic surgery so they could live lives without shame. Even though you feel Sally Struthers could walk on screen at any moment and shed a tear, the documentary provides moving insight into the fears and insecurities of impoverished denizens of the third world. More interestingly structured is four-time Academy Award nominee Steven Okazaki's The Conscience of Nhem En, a loose portrait of the man who took photographs of the tens of thousands of citizens who passed through the Khmer Rouge's S21 processing center in Cambodia, but this one seems like an easy win for Smile Pinki, unless voters feel that a vote for the PBS-grade The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306, a series of reflections by the last living witness to the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., is a way of acknowledging how they helped realize MLK's dream by voting for our new president.

Will Win: Smile Pinki

Should Win: The Final Inch

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Art Direction

Let's not make this category any more difficult than it has to be. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has this one in the bag, not because it's the only Best Picture contender in the running, and not because it even has the best art direction on display. Oscar favors periods in both this and costume design, and while The Duchess and Changeling both contain the opulent flourishes and seamlessly accurate locations, respectively, from other eras that would normally take the prize here, the former missed out on a nomination by the Art Directors Guild, while the craftsmanship of the latter may simply be too subtle and lived-in to register with academy members. (That will almost certainly be the case with Revolutionary Road's oppressively mundane suburban interiors; they serve their purpose and drive Kate Winslet justifiably bonkers, but Oscar voters often opt for sets that scream "Wish you were here!") Lord knows why the academy decided to nominate the Batman franchise's sets for the first time since the Tim Burton era; no other film in the series has more heavily leaned on existing (i.e. Chicagoan) urban decay. (It's a wonder Slumdog Millionaire didn't sneak in here in its stead.) So Benjamin Button has this one almost by default, but it would've probably coasted to a win in any number of years. There's only one thing that can trump a period piece, and that's a multi-period piece.

Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Should Win: Changeling

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Actor

In this corner, Mickey Rourke: winner of countless critics awards for his performance in The Wrestler, who has apparently pissed off more people than Perez Hilton; who called Perez Hilton a faggot and no one gave a shit, whose Hollywood story mirrors that of his character, who won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA and who doesn't have an Oscar to his name and may never be nominated for another one again, whose fans are fierce but respectful of the other guy's posse. And in this corner, Sean Penn: winner of countless critics awards for his performance in Milk, who has ostensibly pissed off more people than Fidel Castro, who said that Fidel Castro was good for Cuba and no one gave a shit, who has come a long way from being married to Madonna and being scared of the dick to swapping saliva with James Franco the same year Prop 8 passed in Oscar's home state of California, who won the SAG and the BFCA, whose fans are fierce but respectful of the other guy's posse. Flip a coin or follow our logic: Yes, you empathize more with Rourke's character, but we're of the opinion that this undervalued actor's "story" is being talked up more than his actual performance. That's not to say voters aren't being swayed by that story, but does Hollywood as a whole really feel it owes Rourke anything? We know Penn already has an Oscar, which definitely matters in a year where an acting race is this close, but whatever votes Penn will lose because of this will be countered by any ones he'll inevitably get from those guilt-tripped into thinking by the shrill Brokeback Mountain cult that a vote for Crash a few years ago was one against gay rights. It's a nail-biter all right, but we have to give this one to the veteran whose completely transformative performance enlivens the milquetoastiness of a movie that's creepily in sync with our volatile contemporary political moment.

Will Win: Sean Penn for Milk

Should Win: Sean Penn for Milk

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Director

Dear AMPAS directors' branch, we're done now. In years past, we've praised you for your odd-man-out nominations, the ones that paid tribute to tomorrow's masterpieces that were clearly never going to snag nominations in Best Picture (Mulholland Drive, Talk to Her, Vera Drake). We were disappointed in you in 2005, when you snubbed David Cronenberg, Terrence Malick, and Woody Allen in favor of Bennett Miller and Paul Haggis, but we gave you a simple demerit and forgot about the indiscretion as, in the following years, you gave Martin Scorsese and the Coens the chance to accept their long overdue career achievement-in-disguise prizes. That goodwill is gone now and we're through making excuses for what is fast becoming the most disappointing branch in the entire Academy. You've rewarded a particularly unrewarding Best Picture lineup with a Best Director slate that mirrors the academy's shame in its every elephantine sag. You've shown that you're only a fan of vital auteurs when they reign in and tame everything about themselves that excites their fans (Fincher, Van Sant). You've capriciously decided to end your love affair with all things Clint at the precise moment when he makes a zeitgeist-tapping blockbuster. Jesus fucking Christ, you've now nominated Stephen Daldry for every goddamned film he's ever directed! We're left with no choice now but to remember the bad times. 2001 is no longer the year you nominated David Lynch and Robert Altman but rather the year you didn't snub Ron Howard, opening the door for his easy win. 2007 is no longer the year you orchestrated a face-off between the Coens and Paul Thomas Anderson but instead the year you declared Jason Reitman cinema's great white hope. Face it, directors, you are hacks bent on rewarding hackery, as incapable of venerating your reputation against that of the academy-at-large as the academy-at-large was incapable of voting a competitive Oscar into Alfred Hitchcock's meathooks. To the extent that we give a watery shit, the academy ought to continue riding the Slumdog Millionaire bandwagon here, just as they rode the Brokeback Mountain bandwagon the last time the Picture/Director slates matched exactly. Meanwhile, directors' branch, I think you better call on Tyrone.

Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Song

We aren't buying this theory that WALL-E will benefit from a vote split here because (a) the two Slumdog Millionaire songs don't suck, unlike that unholy trifecta from Dreamgirls two years ago (or the Enchanted ones from last year); (b) the Grammy-winning WALL-E tune sounds as if it was composed by Randy Newman; and (c) the academy doesn't really care about correcting epic-length losing streaks in the tech categories (sorry Thomas Newman). We're not even sure that "Down to Earth" has more support than "O Saya," because we know how many more times the latter has been downloaded and listened to, and no praise we've read for "Down to Earth" has equaled that of YouTube poster amoebchen's fondness for "O Saya": "Makes me want to dance, laugh, dream and cry at the same time!!!" For better capturing the essence of Slumdog Millionaire, or because I can't listen to "Jai Ho" without thinking of it as a Bollywood remix of Despina Vandi's "Gia," my personal vote goes to "O Saya," but I'm okay with it losing as long as M.I.A.'s water doesn't break for another two weeks. And though it's true that "Jai Ho" has yet to provoke homages from third-world prisons in its honor, it's still the only song here that can be reasonably called a phenomenon—the song that plays during Slumdog Millionaire's ecstatic closing credits, inviting the audience's applause before sending them on their giddy way.

Will Win: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: "O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Supporting Actress

Taking Kate Winslet out of the equation seemed to turn this category into any Academy Award fan's dream scenario: an Oscar ripe for the taking in a veritable five-way contest. While it's true that this is the only one of this year's four acting categories where you can conjure up a pretty realistic scenario for any of the nominees being declared the winner, and we were all deprived a truly representational trial heat for this category, it's myopic to act like there weren't a couple clear favorites before Winslet's departure that are now, consequently, favorites once again. Back in late December, Penelope Cruz was making a pretty unbroken sprint through the most important critics' prizes, winning citations from the National Board of Review, the New York Film Critics Circle, and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. Granted, and as Sally Hawkins could tell you, this isn't one of those years wherein critical attention seems to be any sort of dealmaker. But in a tight race, critics' endorsements could be enough to buttress the role's Oscar-friendly cultural minstrelsy and erection-friendly lesbianics to an easy win. If any of the other four nominees can surmount Cruz's early lead, it will be Viola Davis, if for no other reason than the desire to throw an award to one of Doubt's four Oscar-nominated performances. Some carp that the role is too brief to win here, especially given Amy Adams, in a much more durationally substantial role, is competition. But if there's a category where it's totally okay to show up for a single scene and knock it out of the park (Beatrice Straight, Judi Dench), this is it. Adams could conceivably win on the "Ooh, she's a hottie" ticket if Cruz and Marisa Tomei's veteran stripper are too exotic for the Academy's demonstrable white-bread crotches. But Adams's character spends the entire movie attempting to defuse situations and explain away the entire plot's inciting incident. Oscar prefers dur-ah-ma, and next to Davis's epic, tearful stare-down against La Streep, Adams's "can't we all just get along" blubbering comes off as an irritating, protracted whine. Hell, for that matter, Cruz's fiery stereotype refused to cry unless she could do it in Spanish. And so we see the Academy, forced to reboot in Winslet's absence, reverting to the early favorite here.

Will Win: Penelope Cruz for Vicki Cristina Barcelona

Should Win: Viola Davis for Doubt

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Original Screenplay

For writing that hinges on indulgent exposition, leaden metaphor, painful grade-school symbolism, and cliché characterization, Courtney Hunt is now an Oscar nominee thanks to the same AMPAS voters who don't recoil into the fetal position at the sound of actors reading aloud from a Paul Haggis screenplay. That's a pretty significant bloc of the academy, but we're guessing there's a considerable overlap of fans between Frozen River and the smarmy In Bruges, which was quickly forgotten after opening in early February but has built a sizeable cult following since then and is now riding high off Golden Globe and BAFTA fumes. Of course, it's rare for a screenplay to win here without also being nominated for Best Picture, so don't bet on In Bruges taking this one unless you also think six-time Oscar nominee Mike Leigh will be given a chance to wax cynically—and justifiably so—about his improvisational style of writing and Happy-Go-Lucky's egregious snub in the Best Actress category. Dustin Lance Black, the openly gay ex-Mormon who writes for HBO's Big Love, should have had this one in the bag, especially after his Writers Guild of America victory, but Black didn't have to contend with WALL-E for that award. Critically and financially, WALL-E benefits from being the most successful film in this category, but we're of the opinion that the same blue-haired types who confuse Most Editing for Best Editing will feel somewhat uneasy—and mistakenly so—about voting for a film that's written in chirps and beeps for a significant portion of its running time, even if they do prefer WALL-E to Milk at the end of the day.

Will Win: Milk

Should Win: Happy-Go-Lucky

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Adapted Screenplay

Are screenplays of acclaimed stage plays adapted by the authors of the original works cursed when it comes to Oscars? Ernest "The Loons" Thompson can poop on that theory, but Tennessee Williams, Arthur Miller, Neil Simon, and Harold Pinter can all say, "Yes, unquestionably." So will Peter Morgan and John Patrick Shanley soon enough, so let's move on to the three-way battle of the flashbacks. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button uses the flashback structure in ways both elegant (gently suggesting Benjamin's chronological affliction) and stilted (the late-inning revelation of Julia Ormand's character's true identity, long-since presaged by most viewers), but the most damning flashback in terms of Oscar viability is the nagging dj vu that we've seen an extraordinary American life detailed like this somewhere before, and from the pen of Eric Roth at that. The literacy I referenced in the nominations prediction blog indeed helped secure The Reader a nomination in this category, but its surprise nominations in a number of other categories suggest it wasn't much of an uphill battle for David Hare. And even we have to admit that his ability to weave back and forth between multiple time periods demonstrates something resembling narrative momentum (as opposed to the maladroit gynecological synchronicity he and Daldry attempted with The Hours), but it also hinges on a mid-film revelation that, if you don't accept it, turns the entire movie into an endless, pompous slog toward bitter denouement. Of course, the movie's Best Picture nomination means just as many bought it as a tragic romance, which also means Slumdog Millionaire isn't quite the invincible (sorry, "underdog") favorite here as it is in a bunch of other categories despite its recent WGA win. That said, Simon Beaufoy's screenplay is playful with its flashbacks, and cannily allows the movie to climax in the here and now. It seems like a close one, but as Slumdog's final title card says: "It is written."

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions Documentary

In case you weren't paying attention, given Sally Hawkins's egregious snub and all, Werner Herzog is now an Oscar nominee—and not a moment too soon. Now it remains to be seen if an adventurous cameramen will pick out the maverick director out of the Oscar crowd and lock on to the man's eternally and blissfully blazed face—assuming, that is, Herzog even shows up. We can't imagine Herzog expects to win this one, even if he probably has the vote of every academy member who counts Aguirre: Wrath of God as one of their favorite movies. On paper, the excellent Katrina doc Trouble the Water screams a winner, but this enraged examination of social injustice is possibly headier than even Encounters at the End of the World. Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath's acclaimed The Betrayal and Scott Hamilton Kennedy's The Garden bring to mind past winners in this category, but this one seems like a knockout punch for Man on Wire, especially with Standard Operating Procedure out of the running. As big a crowd-pleaser as Slumdog Millionaire, Man on Wire has won almost as many awards since the start of the Oscar season, connecting with people first as a thrilling exaltation of high-wire artiste Philippe Petit's chutzpah, then as a memorial to the similarly superhuman daring responsible for building the stage the man walked across on the morning of August 7th, 1974.

Will Win: Man on Wire

Should Win: Encounters at the End of the World

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Actress

To quote Homer Simpson, it seems everything is all wrapped up in a neat little package. By ignoring Weinstein's attempt to gerrymander Kate Winslet into two categories, Oscar's unexpectedly independent-minded decision to place her in the lead category for The Reader has cleared up any and all loose ends in this particular storyline. The academy gets to award the long overdue actress for her role in a movie that's clearly more to their liking than Revolutionary Road, especially given the nominated role allows her to execute (no pun intended) a number of the tricks Oscar loves to see from actresses (old-age makeup, funny accent, Holocaust drama, pert young breasts). Bonus: they can avoid having to deal with category fraud, which slotting Winslet's Reader performance as supporting clearly would've been. I suppose it would've been a better story to give Winslet the award for a role in which she was directed by her husband Sam Mendes instead of the one whose most endearing production backstory is how Stephen Daldry and his crew were strongarmed into wrapping the damned thing up specifically for the purpose of qualifying it for Oscars. But that's collateral damage. Ditto the fact that her win here has the unfortunate effect of allowing the Academy to walk right into Ricky Gervais and Winslet's satirical trap on Extras. Winslet might be portraying a nun in that fictional Oscar bid on Gervais's series, and La Streep is undoubtedly her closest competition, but her "interesting" decision to portray Doubt's Sister Beaver for comedy will probably blow out a few too many voters' lights. Winslet's not old enough yet to lose many votes to Anne Hathaway from the Academy demographic that routinely votes for female actors they'd like to sit on their laps. Finally, there are no cripple roles in this spread. Like Winslet said, besides the Holocaust, "you are guaranteed an Oscar if you play a mental." With no bona fide mentals in the running here (Hathaway's self-destruction also extends to destroying others, so no sympathy points there), that pretty well clears the path for Winslet to break her losing streak for what's pretty obviously her worst nominated performance. Still, cue up the cult of Winslet's chorus of Flanders-like screams.

Will Win: Kate Winslet for The Reader

Should Win: Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Visual Effects

No fuzzy, talking animals can possibly and unexpectedly tip this year's Visual Effects contest like they recently did for The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe and The Golden Compass, but at least we do have a grizzly in the form of Brad Pitt's computer-enhanced young codger. There are, of course, a lot more qualities stacked in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button team's favor: It's actually a fully-stocked buffet of CGI, process shots, trick photography, and computerized Botox. (Pitt wasn't the only one who spent large chunks of screen time looking like his younger self, and we already know just how much the Academy loves their Cate Blanchett.) If nothing else, think of all the voters who chuckled every goddamned time that drooling raisin flashed back to one of the seven times he'd been hit by lightning. The breadth of VFX content in the film (even if some effects soar while otherslike Pitt circa 1991just creep us out) should easily trump its competition, unless voters choose to fixate on a single, spectacularly-executed effect, in which case Harvey Dent's ruined face may give The Dark Knight a leg up on Pitt's slowly fixed one.

Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Foreign Language

After years of controversy, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences finally elects an executive committee to give a second chance to three foreign-language films snubbed during this category's first round of voting. By most accounts, this decision to police the regular nominating committee, Academy Members for the Perpetual Reward of Holocaust Pictures, has yielded an unusually strong batch of contenders, which include two Cannes prizewinners and the latest from the director of The Last Exit to Brooklyn. Now the question remains if the Academy will enact similar quality-control measures in other categoriesso, you know, a travesty like the one that befell Sally Hawkins this year will never happen again. But I digress. This year my blindspots are Uli Edel's The Baader Meinhof Complex and Yojiro Takita's Departures. The former, about the roots of the Red Army Faction terrorist group, sounds like a more youthful and explosive relation of Germany's last winner in this category, The Lives of Others, but Departures may have a leg up on it if Variety, that bastion of film-biz-y shorthand criticism, is to be believed: "Fascinating glimpses into a unique profession trump the pic's emotional manipulation and substantial length, suggesting that its top prize in Montreal could lead to fest action and, following judicious postmortem editing, selected arthouse engagements." Revanche, Janus's first theatrical release of a new film in decades, will be released on video by the Criterion Collection and may be the strongest contender here. The story of lives intersecting in a rural Austrian town after an unfortunate accident, this ninth feature from Austrian director Gtz Spielmann threatens to go down the low-road of a guttersnipping Ulrich Seidl production until it evolves into a morally disquieting and visually prismatic and resplendent look at grief, boasting the most chilling sound design you'll hear outside a torture porn. But the last thing academy members probably want to think about is getting sliced to bits by a woodcutter, so the race is probably between The Class and Waltz with Bashir. The latter won the Golden Globe and obviously has its fans, but naysayers have also called out its redundancy and borderline incomprehensibility, though it may ultimately lose because voters might feel it should have been nominated in either the animated or documentary feature categories. Laurent Cantet's The Class, also being released by Sony Pictures Classics, has received a less thoughtful theatrical run, which is surprising given the film's buzz following its victory at Cannes, but the temperament of the film, which documents in reality-TV fashion the struggles of a teacher to tame his immigrant-city students, seems very much in sync with that of the academy's. In short: If Armond White thinks it's racist, it must be a winner.

Will Win: The Class

Should Win: Revanche

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Animated Feature

Annie, are you okay? The Annie Awards, which are handed out by animators to animators, gave what by almost any measure is the most highly-regarded film of the year (animated or otherwise) the cold shoulder, instead showering the cute-but-no-cigar Kung-Fu Panda with a record-setting haul. Sorta makes you wonder whether animators might be a tad tired of hearing the standard mantra people tend to repeat whenever a new Pixar movie is released: "It's more than just a cartoon." That, or they really are just a bunch of furries that have lucked into a harmonious vocation. I've heard a few people explain WALL-E's Annie shutout is testament to animators' affinity for traditional cartoon-character renderings, that it's far more difficult for animators to get excited about what registers as cinematic to your average layman film-fan. Thus, they can naturally be expected to endorse Panda's motley selection from the animal kingdom over WALL-E's movie-movie pleasures (WALL-E dipping his metal claw into a streak of stardust). Never mind. Oscar voters are strictly fans when it comes to this category, and with Waltz with Bashir and its tempting political pull out of the running in favor of the potentially vote-splitting traditional character animation of Bolt, WALL-E won't be going home empty-clawed here.

Will Win: WALL-E

Should Win: WALL-E

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Supporting Actor

Even if people wanted to vote for a critics darling like Josh Brolin (Milk) in this category, to do so might seem akin to failing one of the Joker's social experiments from The Dark Knight. Hell, I'm even afraid of giving my should-win vote to anyone other than Heath Ledger for fear I'll end up with a pencil shoved through my eye.

Will Win: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight

Should Win: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Score

The brouhaha over The Dark Knight's eligibility has been settled and found irrelevant. Clearly, the Academy music branch prefers their James Newton Howard scores to sit down, shut up, and give the timpani a rest. Thus, he gets his nomination for his collaboration with director Edward Zwick, resulting in a music score with all the potency and dynamic range that particular combination of cinematic personalities would imply. As far as composers who are starting to rack up stacks of nominations without toppling over into a win, Danny Elfman (Milk) and Thomas Newman (WALL-E) undoubtedly stand better shots than Newton Howard. But neither are solid bets, in part because the ghosts of previous compositions overshadow them. Like the movie that surrounds it, Newman's understated work in the earlier portion of WALL-E eventually slips into a slightly disappointing techno-satire, and even though the "Define Dancing" cue is gorgeous, the movie's most enduring musical legacy is the hat routine WALL-E performs to his VHS copy of Hello, Dolly. And Elfman's score almost deliberately avoids the sort of emotional gut-punch that Mark Isham provided in his muted, icy requiem for The Times of Harvey Milk. Flip that equation and you have Alexandre Desplat's conundrum. His luxuriantly legato cues are like an entire movie's worth (make that movie-and-a-half's worth) of John Williams's elegiac coda from A.I., but no matter how pliantly his orchestra bends their bows to forge an emotional connection, Fincher's film retains its calculated distance from the material. Not that I'm saying every last voter got weepy over AR Rahman's tranced-out interpolation of the theme from Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, but it may be the one piece of music whose pulse most closely matches that of its respective film.

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Oscar Race 2009: Winner Predictions - Short (Live Action)

Manon on the Asphalt is a whimsical evocation of a woman's life flashing before her eyes, but On the Line is the real standout here: The story of a department store security guard obsessed with a book clerk, Reto Caffi's short risks meet-cute contrivance until a horrifying act of violence provokes the main character to examine the implications of his infatuation. From Denmark, The Pig begins as mysteriously as On the Line ends, with an interesting relationship imagined between an older gentleman and the painting of a pig that hangs from his hospital room, only to devolve into a shrill, rather supremacist why-can't-we-all-just-get-along rant. If On the Line bears a striking resemblance to Revanche over in the foreign language category, so too does New Boy bring to mind The Class. Except this is a noticeably dumbed-down version of Laurent Cantet's Cannes prizewinner—one in which a young African immigrant boy struggles with bullies during his first day of class, his embarrassment intercut with scenes from his experiences inside his previous place of learning in violent, succulently shot Africa. Director Steph Green's literally infantilizes the struggle of immigrants trying to cope with their new surroundings, and though there's no doubt the short will appeal to the Academy (here's looking at you fans of Crash, Blood Diamond, The Visitor, and Frozen River), it's probably unwise to vote against Toyland. Throughout this WWII-set story of a woman who convinces her son that her Jewish neighbors are headed to Toyland, director Jochen Alexander Freydank risks the gross insult of The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, but he makes interesting use of chronology throughout, in the end foregrounding a woman's frightened courage and conviction to preserving life rather than making a tacky spectacle of death.

Will Win: Toyland

Should Win: On the Line